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*gasp* Wow...
I was kinda wishing to die...especially since I won't be around tomorrow...I guess I posted too late.
Oh well, I guess that's all the more reason we need to step it up since we've lost some of our glitter and glitz ya? Back to the grind...
(Which means, you can now start posting your analysis of the next guy underneath you who isn't dead).
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Lol I guess I get an easy person to analyze (actually not that easy since there's not much to say, but w/e):
Love1Another:
Has 3 in-game posts. Of which only 2 are really relevant. 1st relevant post: is an I'm confused post. But it doesn't say much else. No thought of trying to contribute, so that doesn't raise a big red flag. Although he is quick to say he isn't an assassin...probably means nothing, I'm guessing. 2nd relevant post: Wanting to be Jugan's friend. Cute. Not enough information to go on at this point, but it could be an "I like chaos and alienation! Keep doing it, its' helping our cause!" kind of post, but idk. Keeping with my promise to not let you guys just pop up at a convenient time just to defend yourself, I'll just keep this one in the back of my mind until we hear more from other people.
Next!
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On April 21 2010 10:13 Caller wrote: obvious blue snipers are obvious who's capable of blue sniping?
Zona Ace BloodyCobbler (he's REALLY good at it) me Incognito
This is just a "These people are widely respected so they must be good at blue sniping" statement.
Zona - I've never seen him be red, so I don't know if he's good at blue sniping. Is awful quiet though...
Ace...don't remember, but from what I can recall he sticks more to the logic/bashing ppl in the thread side rather than the blue sniping side.
BC - the only game I remember him as mafia in was the Smurf game, in which I guess he did a good job at sniping key players (qatol and L). Of the 3 kills, one was a DT but the other two were green. 2 of them were good players though, and in a game where good players are hidden like blue roles, I guess that can be considered solid "blue" sniping skill. The tells for blues and high profile players trying to hide would be similar, yes?
Caller - Mafia XVIII. Actually you guys hit a fair amount of blues (and reds). Don't know how much of that was your doing and how much of it was Foolishness(?) but it fits. Other games with you as mafia...Mafia VIII. Of your six kills, 5 were blue. Nice. But 2 of them were BGs, so that was probably luck. 3/6 is not too shabby. But how much of that was Showtime! or MBH's doing? Either way both of your plays as mafia resulted in a fair number of blue/red hits. That's pretty good.
Incognito - I was mafia once, in your (Caller's) first game. Ver basically dictated the hit list (along with input from Showtime!?) so no, I have no experience with blue sniping.
Yeah it is pretty alarming that three blues died. But looking at who the players are and what they posted kinda makes it fit. As I recall, CynanMachae posted a large post accusing TheLardyGooser, so it's understandable why the mafia would want to silence him. Foolishness: given his relatively high-profile status and the fact that he is less likely to be medic protted than others, for example, Ace/BC/me, I guess its not unreasonable that the mafia would hit him. Foolishness also attacks TheLardyGooser quite strongly. Radfield was posting pretty logically and actively, and didn't just post one-liners. Although didn't seem to be actively pursuing an agenda. Meh, I don't know about this one. Best fits would probably be blue sniping or just the mafia wanting to get rid of a relatively active poster. [NyC]HoBbes is the only one I'm clueless about. Looking back through his posts I still don't see any obvious reason why they would've wanted him dead. I can only see blue sniping as a decent fit for this kill. Or just randomness. But the other kills don't seem random though. However, given the general fact that blues try to keep quiet, maybe they just made a wild guess and chose hobbes? Although there are plenty of other quiet useless posters out there...
Out of this list, BC would be the one to look at if anyone at all. Given his suspicious (well, non-existent, really) behavior, it seems like he fits best. But for the moment we should probably focus on other issues at hand. But BC better start posting or else the lynch hammer is going to have to come down.
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On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote: I didn't say we wouldn't have enough... I said we wouldn't have tons. We probably will have enough... but not so much that I would be totally comfortable with doing it and the second lynch will probably be a stretch. It really all depends on how the game plays out. If after tonights killings there is reason to believe in Day 3 we'll be set on two Mafia I might very well change my mind. But I'm just playing it safe... too many lynches without enough information just means more green deaths.
Your third sentence contradicts itself? It pretty much says, "we will probably have enough information to use a double lynch, but I'm not comfortable using this enough information to actually lynch two people!!?" Which is it? Although yes, at this rate, nobody's spitting out enough information to DL tomorrow. This statement is shaky, but I guess it doesn't make sense for you to say this as mafia. Since really not very many solid suspects have been brought up, so you wouldn't have the need to avoid DLing then.
On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote: You're right... this is something I'm guilty of. I am normally a reactionary player and even more so in this game... I mean hell even this response is only a reaction to you prodding me a bit. I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information.
Great I'll look forward to it.
On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote: About bandwagons: Normally bandwagons are something to be avoided... but in a game where you need a majority vote to lynch they're inevitable, and even necessary. Do you really think that everyone voting for jpak really beleived him to be scum? Or even agreed with the reasons he was being lynched? Without Jugan switching last minute (when he claimed he wouldn't) we wouldn't have got a lynch at all. We should still look closely at people who do little but bandwagon (yeah I fall on this list right now, but whatever)
So you are in the lets-not-kill-more-innocent-townies-with-shaky-Double-Lynches camp, but you're also in the lets-lynch-people-just-because-i-don't-want-a-no-lynch camp. Cool beans.
On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote: Yeah the medic list eh... hrmmm... not entirely well thought out but certaintly I can defend it. The list wasn't meant to tell the medics exactly what to do... and surely it wasn't meant to include everyone that I thought was at risk. I actually meant to include d3 and don't know why it didn't end up on there. But Zona and Ace were ignored because Zona hasn't been especially active other than his Zbot and he's been really active on other parts of the site, so although his contributions have been incredibly useful he hasn't been all too active around here. Ace seems to have given up on the game and I have doubts whether he really is a dt... but regardless it's not like he's contributing to anything other than his ingame-game.
I saw Infund's list... but I thought it could be expanded... tree.hugger and foolishness have posted semi-intelligently but yeah hobbes... mmm... that's someone that might have been left off given some more thought.
Hmm...you're still suspicious, but this has put me back into indecision. Actually finding out today's deaths makes you look more innocent. Since two people on your medic list died. I'm not sure you're that crazy to put two of your hit list members on a public medic list. Although I guess since Hobbes was like a lolwut and Foolishness was acting...shady you could take that risk. In any case, I await your active contributions to the town effort.
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On April 21 2010 11:16 Bill Murray wrote: This just means we have to work harder to win, but i'm worried that there's no town circle forming. veterans like ace and bc need to get off their asses and actually do something instead of appearing bored and letting the town go to shit.
since you guys aren't stepping it up, i'll have to. since i know i'm green, we can create a town circle around me. I'm not asking you to roleclaim to me, but if you are a member of this town, and want to contribute and win then u need to listen to me.
We need to get rid of people who aren't stepping up to the plate. these players are supposed to be good and helpful players but instead they are not helping or are just posting garbage: Tree.Hugger, Ace, BC, Infundibulum,
Lolwut since when does BM step up to the plate? And since when does tree.hugger trump ppl like Zona for the "good and helpful players" list?
Show nested quote +On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote:On April 21 2010 09:21 Incognito wrote:Actually meeple is a fairly suspicious character imo. Let me go back through his archived posts and check. Ok, useless posts, followed by attacking BC's plan/idea. Not really pro-town, but not suspicious yet either. Oh noes. Next post he defends BC. Not sure how much we can read into this. But flip floppiness is kinda pro-mafia. Then he ignores BM, cool. Advocates anti day-3 double lynch policy. Ok, fine I guess this is a justifiable position. There are plenty of people who have advocated this position in the past. Regardless though, traditionally usually have a decent amount of information in our hands by day 3. Yet meeple arbitrarily assumes that we won't have enough info by day 3. On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote: I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. I didn't say we wouldn't have enough... I said we wouldn't have tons. We probably will have enough... but not so much that I would be totally comfortable with doing it and the second lynch will probably be a stretch. It really all depends on how the game plays out. If after tonights killings there is reason to believe in Day 3 we'll be set on two Mafia I might very well change my mind. But I'm just playing it safe... too many lynches without enough information just means more green deaths. Really? Well why don't you try to make generate this info then? Seriously info doesn't just pop out of nowhere into your hands. Seems to me like meeple has no intention of attempting to get information. He inherently assumes that not enough will be available. Oops! Also, another thing to note about meeple's posting is that if you look at all of meeple's posts as a whole, he is always reacting. He is always responding to what is going on immediately in front of him. Not going through or trying to analyze other players as a whole. Strike two! Well, before I write him off on that, meeple: start trying to dig up and analyze real information instead of just responding to what is immediately in front of you please.. You're right... this is something I'm guilty of. I am normally a reactionary player and even more so in this game... I mean hell even this response is only a reaction to you prodding me a bit. I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information. Continuing, meeple finally decides to respond to the BM incident, complains about inactivity, and jokes around. Casually mentions a bandwagon (not certain if this is an anti-bandwagon stance, but I assume it is?), and then in the next post jumps onto the jpak wagon. Talk about hypocrisy. I don't remember complaining about inactivity... in fact I think I said that its been pretty good, with 40 pages by Day 1. About bandwagons: Normally bandwagons are something to be avoided... but in a game where you need a majority vote to lynch they're inevitable, and even necessary. Do you really think that everyone voting for jpak really beleived him to be scum? Or even agreed with the reasons he was being lynched? Without Jugan switching last minute (when he claimed he wouldn't) we wouldn't have got a lynch at all. We should still look closely at people who do little but bandwagon (yeah I fall on this list right now, but whatever) Next several posts are trash, and then he comes up with a medic list. Cool. It looks useful. Unfortunately, infundibulum already made one of those. He was probably ignored, but oh wells. At least meeple leaves Ace (Detective?) off the list, and adds some people to the list who aren't really worth mentioning. tree.hugger? Foolishness hasn't been useful, and hobbes is a big WUT? Why does meeple also ignore Zona and d3_crescentia from his list? Shady and poorly thought out list at best. Next he defends himself from Caller. And now he will have to defend himself from me. Better come out and explain yourself before I explain your situation for you (well, I already did). (Note to inactives, don't think that I'm going to give you the same treatment as meeple and let you defend yourselves. The difference here is that at least meeple is being active. He gets a few more bonus tolerance points on my list than you guys do).
Oh also I'd like you to come out and explain your choices for your bizzare medic list. Yeah the medic list eh... hrmmm... not entirely well thought out but certaintly I can defend it. The list wasn't meant to tell the medics exactly what to do... and surely it wasn't meant to include everyone that I thought was at risk. I actually meant to include d3 and don't know why it didn't end up on there. But Zona and Ace were ignored because Zona hasn't been especially active other than his Zbot and he's been really active on other parts of the site, so although his contributions have been incredibly useful he hasn't been all too active around here. Ace seems to have given up on the game and I have doubts whether he really is a dt... but regardless it's not like he's contributing to anything other than his ingame-game. I saw Infund's list... but I thought it could be expanded... tree.hugger and foolishness have posted semi-intelligently but yeah hobbes... mmm... that's someone that might have been left off given some more thought. This post feels pretty squirmy to me
Um what makes you think this? I thought it was at least halfway decent...
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On April 21 2010 12:04 Korynne wrote: Hi guys! Just reading through the thread right now, will post noob analysis in a bit (first game >.<).
Ooh look! Another noob card! We've got a lot of those floating around...wonder how many of them will lead us in the right direction...Where are you peoples? Can we get this train going already?
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On April 21 2010 12:21 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2010 12:16 Incognito wrote:On April 21 2010 11:16 Bill Murray wrote: This just means we have to work harder to win, but i'm worried that there's no town circle forming. veterans like ace and bc need to get off their asses and actually do something instead of appearing bored and letting the town go to shit.
since you guys aren't stepping it up, i'll have to. since i know i'm green, we can create a town circle around me. I'm not asking you to roleclaim to me, but if you are a member of this town, and want to contribute and win then u need to listen to me.
We need to get rid of people who aren't stepping up to the plate. these players are supposed to be good and helpful players but instead they are not helping or are just posting garbage: Tree.Hugger, Ace, BC, Infundibulum,
Lolwut since when does BM step up to the plate? And since when does tree.hugger trump ppl like Zona for the "good and helpful players" list? On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote:On April 21 2010 09:21 Incognito wrote:Actually meeple is a fairly suspicious character imo. Let me go back through his archived posts and check. Ok, useless posts, followed by attacking BC's plan/idea. Not really pro-town, but not suspicious yet either. Oh noes. Next post he defends BC. Not sure how much we can read into this. But flip floppiness is kinda pro-mafia. Then he ignores BM, cool. Advocates anti day-3 double lynch policy. Ok, fine I guess this is a justifiable position. There are plenty of people who have advocated this position in the past. Regardless though, traditionally usually have a decent amount of information in our hands by day 3. Yet meeple arbitrarily assumes that we won't have enough info by day 3. On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote: I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. I didn't say we wouldn't have enough... I said we wouldn't have tons. We probably will have enough... but not so much that I would be totally comfortable with doing it and the second lynch will probably be a stretch. It really all depends on how the game plays out. If after tonights killings there is reason to believe in Day 3 we'll be set on two Mafia I might very well change my mind. But I'm just playing it safe... too many lynches without enough information just means more green deaths. Really? Well why don't you try to make generate this info then? Seriously info doesn't just pop out of nowhere into your hands. Seems to me like meeple has no intention of attempting to get information. He inherently assumes that not enough will be available. Oops! Also, another thing to note about meeple's posting is that if you look at all of meeple's posts as a whole, he is always reacting. He is always responding to what is going on immediately in front of him. Not going through or trying to analyze other players as a whole. Strike two! Well, before I write him off on that, meeple: start trying to dig up and analyze real information instead of just responding to what is immediately in front of you please.. You're right... this is something I'm guilty of. I am normally a reactionary player and even more so in this game... I mean hell even this response is only a reaction to you prodding me a bit. I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information. Continuing, meeple finally decides to respond to the BM incident, complains about inactivity, and jokes around. Casually mentions a bandwagon (not certain if this is an anti-bandwagon stance, but I assume it is?), and then in the next post jumps onto the jpak wagon. Talk about hypocrisy. I don't remember complaining about inactivity... in fact I think I said that its been pretty good, with 40 pages by Day 1. About bandwagons: Normally bandwagons are something to be avoided... but in a game where you need a majority vote to lynch they're inevitable, and even necessary. Do you really think that everyone voting for jpak really beleived him to be scum? Or even agreed with the reasons he was being lynched? Without Jugan switching last minute (when he claimed he wouldn't) we wouldn't have got a lynch at all. We should still look closely at people who do little but bandwagon (yeah I fall on this list right now, but whatever) Next several posts are trash, and then he comes up with a medic list. Cool. It looks useful. Unfortunately, infundibulum already made one of those. He was probably ignored, but oh wells. At least meeple leaves Ace (Detective?) off the list, and adds some people to the list who aren't really worth mentioning. tree.hugger? Foolishness hasn't been useful, and hobbes is a big WUT? Why does meeple also ignore Zona and d3_crescentia from his list? Shady and poorly thought out list at best. Next he defends himself from Caller. And now he will have to defend himself from me. Better come out and explain yourself before I explain your situation for you (well, I already did). (Note to inactives, don't think that I'm going to give you the same treatment as meeple and let you defend yourselves. The difference here is that at least meeple is being active. He gets a few more bonus tolerance points on my list than you guys do).
Oh also I'd like you to come out and explain your choices for your bizzare medic list. Yeah the medic list eh... hrmmm... not entirely well thought out but certaintly I can defend it. The list wasn't meant to tell the medics exactly what to do... and surely it wasn't meant to include everyone that I thought was at risk. I actually meant to include d3 and don't know why it didn't end up on there. But Zona and Ace were ignored because Zona hasn't been especially active other than his Zbot and he's been really active on other parts of the site, so although his contributions have been incredibly useful he hasn't been all too active around here. Ace seems to have given up on the game and I have doubts whether he really is a dt... but regardless it's not like he's contributing to anything other than his ingame-game. I saw Infund's list... but I thought it could be expanded... tree.hugger and foolishness have posted semi-intelligently but yeah hobbes... mmm... that's someone that might have been left off given some more thought. This post feels pretty squirmy to me Um what makes you think this? I thought it was at least halfway decent... zona isnt doing a fucking thing to help us
Well uh...and you think Ace and BC ARE going to do something to help us?
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Since I am going to be absent for the next 1.5 days, I thought I'd just post my thoughts so hopefully you could get a general idea of where to look. Please don't ignore analyzing the guy underneath you though!
(Semi-)active suspicious people:
tree.hugger is against BM's assassin plan but wants to discuss it. Is this because he wants the town to go on the wrong track/get distracted from their real objectives? Tries to derail the thread by continuing to talk about assassins...is he an assassin?? Or just a mafioso using that as an excuse to find something to talk about? Posts other useless information, and lately posts that he agrees with foolishness and me that there is enough information to work off of. He also complains about the vets not helping, but shows no intention of actually helping. RebirthOfLegenD: Promises reds and results. Fine, its only day 2. But he posted recently and all it was was a *cry* blues have died post. Not the greatest activity there. Planning to do something anytime soon? Responds to assassin discussion. I'm glad BC pointed out to us about how BM's plan produced results. Hopefully I won't over do it on this factor, but if we add up all the factors, it might give us something. Other than that, RoL has been pretty useless. RaGe: Tries to tell us to random lynch on day 1. I get it now, its not that terrible but not that great. Overall, just tells us nothing in general. He then proceeds to get attacked and has produced nothing useful since. Only defense of himself. Which isn't really pro-town. Scamp: Talks about assassins. Pops in to say useless stuff. Only one semi-decent post, which just parrots the attacks on TheLardyGooser. Debating whether I should have put him here or lower on the list, but I don't see any redeeming value here yet. Abenson: Talks about assassins. And that's pretty much it. This should probably be just counted as inactivity, but whatever. Caller: Rolechecked red, and has been making some pretty loose intuition-based attacks on ppl. No strong solid evidence here, so nothing of redeeming value. I guess the rolecheck does it for me. The only reason I could see for Ace lying like that was if he was mafia. I don't think he's that "L"ish to sabotage his own team, so he's probably telling the truth if town. Since its not exactly the best time to sac a mafia member (a mafia death would mean a KP drop), its highly unlikely that Ace really is mafia in this situation imo. Falcynn: Useless chatterbox. nai.Protoss: Posts when accused. Nothing more. Not too high profile but someone to look out for. madnessman: just barely makes the cut...on the suspicious side. Not too useful, but then again, not too useless either.
Just purely inactive - and therefore should be prodded and abused so they can be useful: Scaramanga Fishball Koryone: New player, but claims newb. Something to look out for if it gets excessive, otherwise this name is just here to make sure he doesn't get overlooked. JadeFist: Rule breaking + auto-changing vote. Otherwise inactive Roffles: He says some stuff, but nothing outstandingly pro-town or anti-town. nbtnbt5 love1another AcrossFiveJulys motbob
Suspicious people that have some redeeming quality: infundibulum: Cool. He defends Caller and Caller if appears red (if Ace isn't BSing us), this is a good sign. Although in response to KF, he actually has posted a few suspects (on the DT list if I recall?). Other than that, medic list + DT list shows at least some commitment to the town. Although it isn't all too pro-town. BloodyC0bbler: Who is being useless. And is supposedly a good blue sniper? I'm not all too convinced though. He better show up to post or else. Not high on the list, but still someone to look out for. His first post seemed pretty pro-town, but other than that nothing else really pro-town. Bill Murray: Bill is weird. From his assassin "plan" though, I'd probably look at his followers more closely than him. He's being kinda funky, like always, but he's been accusing more than usual. Usually he posts more about himself being green, no? Or maybe that was just a result of L attacking him like a relentless attack dog. Someone to look out for, but not that high on the list. Might warrant an RC though. Seriously its kinda hard to tell what he is purely from behavior (although he's never been red, right?) meeple: I'm on the fence with him right now. If you want more info you can look at my archived accusation post about him. Osmoses: Pretty much same as meeple
*** Note* by the end, I kinda got lazy. Like I said, I am gone tomorrow, so I need to get to bed early tonight and ran out of time. Either way, good luck in my absence. I know this list is long. If you can get people to talk, it shouldn't be too hard to narrow the list down to a manageable size. But then again, since Caller's checked red, I probably wasted my time here. Just use this as a guideline so you can actually try to do stuff and not just sit there. Just because Ace has found us a mafia doesn't mean we get to rest for a day. Keep up the posting, and cya on thursday!
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On April 21 2010 13:37 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2010 13:30 Incognito wrote: Since I am going to be absent for the next 1.5 days, I thought I'd just post my thoughts so hopefully you could get a general idea of where to look. Please don't ignore analyzing the guy underneath you though!
(Semi-)active suspicious people:
tree.hugger is against BM's assassin plan but wants to discuss it. Is this because he wants the town to go on the wrong track/get distracted from their real objectives? Tries to derail the thread by continuing to talk about assassins...is he an assassin?? Or just a mafioso using that as an excuse to find something to talk about? Posts other useless information, and lately posts that he agrees with foolishness and me that there is enough information to work off of. He also complains about the vets not helping, but shows no intention of actually helping. RebirthOfLegenD: Promises reds and results. Fine, its only day 2. But he posted recently and all it was was a *cry* blues have died post. Not the greatest activity there. Planning to do something anytime soon? Responds to assassin discussion. I'm glad BC pointed out to us about how BM's plan produced results. Hopefully I won't over do it on this factor, but if we add up all the factors, it might give us something. Other than that, RoL has been pretty useless. RaGe: Tries to tell us to random lynch on day 1. I get it now, its not that terrible but not that great. Overall, just tells us nothing in general. He then proceeds to get attacked and has produced nothing useful since. Only defense of himself. Which isn't really pro-town. Scamp: Talks about assassins. Pops in to say useless stuff. Only one semi-decent post, which just parrots the attacks on TheLardyGooser. Debating whether I should have put him here or lower on the list, but I don't see any redeeming value here yet. Abenson: Talks about assassins. And that's pretty much it. This should probably be just counted as inactivity, but whatever. Caller: Rolechecked red, and has been making some pretty loose intuition-based attacks on ppl. No strong solid evidence here, so nothing of redeeming value. I guess the rolecheck does it for me. The only reason I could see for Ace lying like that was if he was mafia. I don't think he's that "L"ish to sabotage his own team, so he's probably telling the truth if town. Since its not exactly the best time to sac a mafia member (a mafia death would mean a KP drop), its highly unlikely that Ace really is mafia in this situation imo. Falcynn: Useless chatterbox. nai.Protoss: Posts when accused. Nothing more. Not too high profile but someone to look out for. madnessman: just barely makes the cut...on the suspicious side. Not too useful, but then again, not too useless either.
Just purely inactive - and therefore should be prodded and abused so they can be useful: Scaramanga Fishball Koryone: New player, but claims newb. Something to look out for if it gets excessive, otherwise this name is just here to make sure he doesn't get overlooked. JadeFist: Rule breaking + auto-changing vote. Otherwise inactive Roffles: He says some stuff, but nothing outstandingly pro-town or anti-town. nbtnbt5 love1another AcrossFiveJulys motbob
Suspicious people that have some redeeming quality: infundibulum: Cool. He defends Caller and Caller if appears red (if Ace isn't BSing us), this is a good sign. Although in response to KF, he actually has posted a few suspects (on the DT list if I recall?). Other than that, medic list + DT list shows at least some commitment to the town. Although it isn't all too pro-town. BloodyC0bbler: Who is being useless. And is supposedly a good blue sniper? I'm not all too convinced though. He better show up to post or else. Not high on the list, but still someone to look out for. His first post seemed pretty pro-town, but other than that nothing else really pro-town. Bill Murray: Bill is weird. From his assassin "plan" though, I'd probably look at his followers more closely than him. He's being kinda funky, like always, but he's been accusing more than usual. Usually he posts more about himself being green, no? Or maybe that was just a result of L attacking him like a relentless attack dog. Someone to look out for, but not that high on the list. Might warrant an RC though. Seriously its kinda hard to tell what he is purely from behavior (although he's never been red, right?) meeple: I'm on the fence with him right now. If you want more info you can look at my archived accusation post about him. Osmoses: Pretty much same as meeple
*** Note* by the end, I kinda got lazy. Like I said, I am gone tomorrow, so I need to get to bed early tonight and ran out of time. Either way, good luck in my absence. I know this list is long. If you can get people to talk, it shouldn't be too hard to narrow the list down to a manageable size. But then again, since Caller's checked red, I probably wasted my time here. Just use this as a guideline so you can actually try to do stuff and not just sit there. Just because Ace has found us a mafia doesn't mean we get to rest for a day. Keep up the posting, and cya on thursday! I would just like to point out that since Caller is now proven to be mafia and he tried to take me out near the start when he was under risk of being lynched, I am clearly not mafia. Although I am also proving your point that I only post to defend myself and I am semi-inactive. But until I find time to sift through all these posts and come up with a good arguement for why somone is mafia I don't have anything to post.
Ouch. Popping out of nowhere and defending yourself on the basis that Caller is proven mafia - nice job. Sadly, Caller is not mafia. Avoiding analysis, and just popping out randomly to defend yourself. Although would you be that stupid to use this (Caller is mafia therefore I'm not) claim to defend yourself if you were mafia? O wait thats a WIFOM. You're super suspicious, especially given your posting record and uselessness. Luckily for you we have better suspects to go after.
***
Cool. Underneath my large list of suspicious ppl post, I get a bunch of ppl arguing about the possibilities for what Ace's role actually is. Did you not read my post? Or just decide to ignore it??
On April 21 2010 17:46 Scaramanga wrote: If we use the double lynch who are we going to use it on, theres no point in using it if we have one target and we just waste it on an inactive. Theres been names thrown around the thread in the last few pages of who is scum, i'd like to see BC and those who are doing analysis to setup and suggest who to lynch or what two people should be lynched if the double lynch vote goes through
Lolwut seriously? You've got to be kidding. Read the thread and contribute plox.
On April 22 2010 09:11 Korynne wrote: I'm not so sure about that. Caller's vote is not exactly close, so a mafia member could definitely go slightly against voting for Caller without worrying that Caller would not get lynched. So I don't think that BC going against Ace is a sure sign of not being red. Likewise, I don't believe there's any reason for tree.hugger's idea that whoever goes against Ace is mafia.
Some controversy over what Ace's result means about BC/the mafia...
On April 22 2010 04:22 tree.hugger wrote: Immediate reaction: Ace is vindicated, unfortunately. And yet, we get no closer to reducing the mafia KP or eliminating them.
So basically the worst possible result.
Except....
From the mafia's perspective, Ace was lying about the rolecheck. The mafia could not have known that Caller was the miller, and though they might have couched their views slightly to accommodate for that, it seems highly likely that, in order to burnish their credibility, the mafia would've been among Ace's more vocal skeptics. Therefore, when Ace's claim would've been revealed to be total bull-L then the FoS could be smoothly redirected towards Ace, and the mafia members would look like they had a better handle on the game then others.
So it seems to me that people who doubted Ace most strongly, or accused him of lying may have revealed themselves to be mafia. And one person sticks out at the top of this list, beyond all his scummy posting, and random accusations, I think BloodyC0bbler's seat just got a lot hotter.
Lets reexamine. Mafia knows Caller wasn't mafia. From Mafia's point of view, a) Ace is DT AND Caller is Miller, or b) Ace is just BSing. If a), then mafia would have the incentive to try to lynch Ace, since they know that after Ace is proven to be a DT, Caller will also be lynched. Town therefore wastes 2 KP for nothing. If Ace was BSing, then the mafia would rather have Caller die first. If the mafia were unsure of whether or not Ace was telling the truth, then it would be safer to lynch Ace first, as lynching Caller could have disasterous consequences if he were the miller. However, as in my analysis, I stated my reasoning explaining why I thought Ace was telling the truth. If any mafia were reading my analysis, then it makes sense that they would want to lynch Ace. Ppl who were railing against Ace: BC. So yes, it makes sense from BC's point of view to try to get Ace killed if mafia. Combined with his blue sniping (although he denies it, I'm still pretty sure he is capable of doing this) and sudden appearance, a case could be made for BC's redness. However, I'm really not sure a 38 person game would have 3 DTs...which throws me into confusion. Lets see if Mr. Blue Sniper can shed some light on this and net us some more info on the blues (although flamewheel has had some weird balancing in last game).
On April 22 2010 09:56 tree.hugger wrote: Lets recap: I suggested that, knowing that Ace was wrong, the mafia were more likely than not to conclude that he was making it up.
Actually I would have thought otherwise, as per the above ^^
***
Anyway, in my absence, I guess its clear that you all just are apathetic people. Seriously, if you can't play to win or don't care to analyze, then please don't play the game. It makes it frustrating for people like me who actually put effort into the game. I know how it can be a daunting task to read through pages of info. But the game isn't really fun unless you do it. This game doesn't provide instant gratification, something which, sadly, causes many people to get quickly disinterested in the game. Anyway, with that said, we have to look at the numbers.
7 mafia v. 20 townies. Remember that we have at least 2 assassins left (or else an assassin would have won.) Therefore, we really only have 18 (or less) actual townspeople. 4 die tonight unless medics/vets do their jobs. What does this mean? We're down to 16/7 tomorrow night, given no lucky vig/assassin hits. Given we really don't have any solid leads, we only know that one of RoL/BC is most likely mafia, if not both (highly unlikely though). If we try to lynch both of them, we will only get one mafia. If we try to lynch one of BC/RoL and lynch someone else, we don't have as good of chance of hitting at least one red. 15/6 for the night, with 12/6 the next day. Unless we get lucky, we're pretty much doomed given the inactivity and our lack of suspects (well, Caller has suspects, but I'm not sure about all of them. Meeple I can see. Motbob is a crapshoot, as we have no info on him. ITW, I thought he was pretty pro-town, but I better check again.).
Therefore, in order to win, I propose that we need to take a gamble. We don't have very many options for playing conservatively here. We need to thin out the mafia ranks soon. And for that, we need the help of the assassins. Assassins, why should you help us? Because its in your interests to do so. If the game ends quickly with a lopsided mafia win, you guys don't get a chance to win. Therefore, I propose that we work together to advance both of our goals. You guys have KP. You also want to kill assassins. At this point, the assassins are probably hiding in relative silence. (Or you could read my posts to see one person I think is probably an assassin). Most of the mafia are probably also hiding in relative silence, given the chaos in the thread for the last several pages. Which gives us a great opportunity to scum/assassin hunt. Assassins want to hide, as do the mafia. Given the (relative) inactivity in the thread, (its the same talking heads babbling over and over), assassins can further their interest as well as ours by shooting someone who is quiet. What does this do? 1. It promotes activity. If you are quiet, you will get shot. 2. It gives the assassins the chance to hit other likely assassins. 3. It gives the assassins more time to win the game if they happen to hit a red. 4. We also get more breathing room if reds are hit.
Who are good candidates to hit? I would just use my inactive list.
Scaramanga Fishball Koryone JadeFist Roffles nbtnbt5
love1another AcrossFiveJulys motbob
Objections? Questions?
Also of course if you are a vig, please hit BC so we can find out about RoL. I'd hate to have to wait another day cycle to find this information.
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On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting.
On April 23 2010 14:13 Korynne wrote: Um, obvious objection is that I am not inactive, I never was (I replaced an inactive), and you should be able to notice that easily if you read the last couple pages at all (which you seem to have, since you quoted me and mentioned me in your post >.<).
Actually, given that Caller ended up being miller, I think it's rather silly for nai.protoss to post something like that if he was mafia. When it is revealed that Caller is miller, nai.protoss has to defend himself all over again. Given how he plays, I would say he's just an overly defensive noob. Either way I don't agree on hitting protoss if we have a better player that is a suspect, only based on the fact that he doesn't seem to know what he's doing, i.e. probably won't contribute a lot to the mafia.
Mostly in agreement with Incognito's post minus the fact that he called everyone apathetic people. xD While it is true that some people have not been contributing it seems rather overgeneralizing to call everyone apathetic. Not to mention that kind of hostility further intimidates new players...
Oh sorry. I copied and pasted lists from one of my previous posts, and changed Fulgrim to Korynne. I didn't really run through to see if anyone got active. Just used the old lists. Falcynn was in another list, aka the more suspicious ppl list. So yeah, assassins are free to kill Falcynn. Actually my top 3 picks would be motbob, Falcynn, and JadeFist right now.
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On April 23 2010 14:24 Ace wrote: Vigis shoot infundibulum too he's useless.
I wish we had 3 vigs...but I highly doubt we have 1 hatter (2 KP) AND 3 vigs (3 KP). Just hit BC, we need that hit more badly in order to confirm RoL (Unless RoL is just being an asshat).
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On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting. I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons. Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day.
If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill.
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On April 23 2010 14:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting. I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons. Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day. Wow, impulsive defense for inactivity with an excuse already tucked away in your back pocket? Mafia much?
Yeah, could you do me a favor and kill him?
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On April 23 2010 14:45 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 14:37 Incognito wrote:On April 23 2010 14:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting. I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons. Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day. Wow, impulsive defense for inactivity with an excuse already tucked away in your back pocket? Mafia much? Yeah, could you do me a favor and kill him? Sure. Dead by tomorrow. If he doesn't die tonight, though, I think he's a good candidate to be one of the lynchees tomorrow depending on how the RoL/BC conflict resolves itself tonight.
So you ARE a vig/Assassin. Thanks for letting us know! I knew I could trust you.
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On April 23 2010 14:40 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 14:35 Falcynn wrote: True, but I figured posting more useless comments wouldn't help my cause either considering I'm horrible at coming up with my own analysis' and most of my comments would just involve me agreeing with other people. At least that was my thinking at the time. Eh... your thought on a subject matter is always something to consider, knowing how you're making decisions if you're town is invaluable for our success, regardless of how useless you think it is. Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 14:33 Incognito wrote:On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting. I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons. Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day. If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill. Continually calling for more deaths is lame...
Of course. We should sit here and wait for the mafia to kill us.
Either way, you haven't been all to useful. Of course, you did give us your analysis, as promised. But its a half hearted attempt at best. nbtnbt5. Fine. Makes sense. Assassins you can kill him too. Abenson. You say he has a lot of posting. Orly? Look at past games, he's posted a ton. It was useless too. This is not very insightful analysis. You admit that he also says he is useless. Not very much of an analysis, huh?
Also, you post some Rage analysis. Only after you come under more attacks. And you say your suspicion has greatly lessened. Ok, how exactly does that help us? It really doesn't. You also say, "The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now". Ok, so you also admit your analysis is half-hearted and not good enough for a lynch. Can you please make it less obvious that you're trying to just get away with the bare minimum? You make me really want to lynch you.
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On April 23 2010 14:53 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: Honestly when I signed up for this I didnt expect it to be so indepth and so much work. Also it seems when ever I post I make an idiot out of myself and further prove myself to be mafia. Since I am town and want to not get voted out so my team can win I have just sat back and not posted, except to defend myself so I hopefully don't get voted out by my teammates.
Oh hello there. Let me just quote myself (and L by proxy?):
On March 17 2010 13:07 Incognito wrote: Like L said previously in response to ~OpZ~'s long defense posts, defending yourself doesn't do that much good unless you have a solid case. Sadly, you don't. So instead of trying to defend yourself, start generating some content.
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On April 23 2010 14:58 Korynne wrote: It's okay. The more you make an idiot out of yourself the less I am inclined to want to lynch you even if you were mafia. xD
Just read stuff and I would say at least make a post giving your reasoning when voting (even if it is for example, "well i don't know much but it seems like ____ is making a lot of sense here when they're accusing ___, so I'm voting for _____ today"). This way at least if we think you're voting incorrectly we can try to put you on the "right track," if you are a townie.
Actually this is a way of looking bad. What not to do:
"Hmm I'm confused about who to lynch. There doesn't seem to be a lot of information out there, but (Player X) is good at finding mafia. I think i'll be voting for (X's choice for candidate) today."
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On April 23 2010 15:02 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 14:50 Incognito wrote:On April 23 2010 14:45 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:On April 23 2010 14:37 Incognito wrote:On April 23 2010 14:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting. I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons. Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day. Wow, impulsive defense for inactivity with an excuse already tucked away in your back pocket? Mafia much? Yeah, could you do me a favor and kill him? Sure. Dead by tomorrow. If he doesn't die tonight, though, I think he's a good candidate to be one of the lynchees tomorrow depending on how the RoL/BC conflict resolves itself tonight. So you ARE a vig/Assassin. Thanks for letting us know! I knew I could trust you. You too right? let's both kill falcynn in case a medic tries to protect him ~_~
Sadly, I'm not. Thats why I'm asking you to do it. Don't let me down!
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On April 23 2010 15:08 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 14:51 Incognito wrote:On April 23 2010 14:40 meeple wrote:On April 23 2010 14:35 Falcynn wrote: True, but I figured posting more useless comments wouldn't help my cause either considering I'm horrible at coming up with my own analysis' and most of my comments would just involve me agreeing with other people. At least that was my thinking at the time. Eh... your thought on a subject matter is always something to consider, knowing how you're making decisions if you're town is invaluable for our success, regardless of how useless you think it is. On April 23 2010 14:33 Incognito wrote:On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting. I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons. Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day. If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill. Continually calling for more deaths is lame... Of course. We should sit here and wait for the mafia to kill us. Either way, you haven't been all to useful. Of course, you did give us your analysis, as promised. But its a half hearted attempt at best. nbtnbt5. Fine. Makes sense. Assassins you can kill him too. Abenson. You say he has a lot of posting. Orly? Look at past games, he's posted a ton. It was useless too. This is not very insightful analysis. You admit that he also says he is useless. Not very much of an analysis, huh? Also, you post some Rage analysis. Only after you come under more attacks. And you say your suspicion has greatly lessened. Ok, how exactly does that help us? It really doesn't. You also say, "The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now". Ok, so you also admit your analysis is half-hearted and not good enough for a lynch. Can you please make it less obvious that you're trying to just get away with the bare minimum? You make me really want to lynch you. Where is my Rage analysis? I don't recall looking at him too deeply. Am I destined to continually be picked apart like a loaf of bread in a duck pond? Step back and look at the situation neutrally for a moment. I don't admit that the analysis was half-hearted... I said that it wasn't conclusive, as with any analysis. nbtnbt5 has too little posting for me to be totally comfortable with his lynch, but I do suspect him... Am I not allowed to post analysis that doesn't end with "lynch this guy!!!" The Abenson issue is non-existent... he was mod-killed and was green. My analysis on his play was wrong. Sry. Do you take issue with my instructions to medic/vigi's? I'm doing far above the average here, so I don't know where this bare minimum is but its pretty relative.
Oh wait nvm. You didn't analyze Rage. You just said you didn't suspect him as much anymore (why?).
"I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information." - Ok. Maybe I'm being a little too harsh. But from someone who posts so much, I expected more from you. Besides your one post with 2 pieces of analysis, your posting is relatively useless. I get the nbtnbt5 analysis. How long did that take? If you find nothing conclusive, you don't go try to find some other information that is? Yes, Abenson may be dead now, but it doesn't change the fact that your analysis was not very insightful. Where did you post vig instructions?
On April 23 2010 15:10 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 15:01 Incognito wrote:On April 23 2010 14:53 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: Honestly when I signed up for this I didnt expect it to be so indepth and so much work. Also it seems when ever I post I make an idiot out of myself and further prove myself to be mafia. Since I am town and want to not get voted out so my team can win I have just sat back and not posted, except to defend myself so I hopefully don't get voted out by my teammates. Oh hello there. Let me just quote myself (and L by proxy?): On March 17 2010 13:07 Incognito wrote: Like L said previously in response to ~OpZ~'s long defense posts, defending yourself doesn't do that much good unless you have a solid case. Sadly, you don't. So instead of trying to defend yourself, start generating some content. To late for generating content. If you have already convinced yourselves that I am mafia then no amount of content will change that. No matter what I say it will be overanalyzed and used as "evidence" as to why I am mafia. I will save you a vote and go inactive next day cycle, and get modkilled.
Actually if you noticed earlier, it worked for Osmoses. And coming to think about it...he's disappeared lately. So Osmoses, if you are reading this message, you can feel free to post something. You admit that you only pop up to defend yourself. So no, I'm not really overanalyzing you. You're just resigning yourself to my accusation, and don't feel the need to change your behavior. That is quite commendable, good sir (and fellow townie).
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On April 23 2010 15:10 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 15:01 Incognito wrote:On April 23 2010 14:53 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: Honestly when I signed up for this I didnt expect it to be so indepth and so much work. Also it seems when ever I post I make an idiot out of myself and further prove myself to be mafia. Since I am town and want to not get voted out so my team can win I have just sat back and not posted, except to defend myself so I hopefully don't get voted out by my teammates. Oh hello there. Let me just quote myself (and L by proxy?): On March 17 2010 13:07 Incognito wrote: Like L said previously in response to ~OpZ~'s long defense posts, defending yourself doesn't do that much good unless you have a solid case. Sadly, you don't. So instead of trying to defend yourself, start generating some content. To late for generating content. If you have already convinced yourselves that I am mafia then no amount of content will change that. No matter what I say it will be overanalyzed and used as "evidence" as to why I am mafia. I will save you a vote and go inactive next day cycle, and get modkilled.
Hold on I totally misread that. No, I have not already convinced myself that you are mafia. But you sure do a good job at making us want to think that. A little less self-victimization would help your case.
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