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On April 25 2010 11:22 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2010 09:19 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:On April 25 2010 07:10 BrownBear wrote:On April 25 2010 07:03 Fishball wrote:
Deep down inside, the voice says Ace is Mafia and the cake is a lie. Ace has been right with his rolechecks twice now (at least from his perspective), and there are no Assassins left in the game, with RoL gone. Thus, I think it's pretty obvious that he's a detective, and pretty obvious that this is a scummy post. It's nearly impossible that Ace is mafia. If ace was mafia and one of his "fake" rolechecks that showed someone to be mafia came up as anything other then mafia or miller be would be lynched immedietly. Since the mafia don't have any rolecheckers the chances of him hitting two millers among the sea of townies is slim to none. Question: If we kill the godfather the game is over right? Nope. Killing the godfather just gives you confidence that if a rolecheck comes out green/blue, that person is actually green/blue. The game is over when: a) There are no mafia members alive, or b) The mafia outnumber the town
c) massive lightningstorms
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
On April 25 2010 12:43 Bill Murray wrote:
psi storm*
I'm a high templar now?
I wanna SCBW...
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On April 25 2010 06:13 Bill Murray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2010 04:45 d3_crescentia wrote:@Ace: How about this - I actually thought Caller was innocent. Guess it means my scumdar's better than yours?  Actual reasoning: out-of-game behavior comparison, back from when me and Caller were on the same Mafia team in WaW. In chat he kept suggesting ridiculous things (you might even remember some of them) to say or do, and we kept telling him no... in comparison, this game he was ridiculously chatty and playing far more aggressively, like he had nothing to lose. I didn't really care that he used improper terminology or whatever but I guess it's because I'm not that careful of a reader. As for RaGe, I missed his post where he said to keep accusations out of Day 1, read some other arguments against it and then agreed with said arguments. I was doubly wrong, since I didn't actually read RaGe's post as carefully as I should have in the first place, and then failed to read the responses carefully to see if there was some sort of discrepancy. That being said, if you'd like to check me to prove how useless I am, go ahead. @Korynne: my reasoning for Day 3 lynch was a mathematical inference based on having 2 Assassins, not based on any sense of good play. We can afford to double mislynch on Day 3, and in the case of 2 Assassins we needed to hit 1 Mafia. With 3, 4 it would have been less safe in that we would need a double and hit both, but I was hoping that by then we would have been able to root out some mafia. Going to eat breakfast, brb. We're going to need a plan for tonight/tomorrow. instead of saying "we're gonna need a plan", why can't u actually do something and propose one?
Maybe you should stop pointing the finger at other people and actually post something yourself? I've been waiting since Day 1 for you to actually start looking for scum and what have you done since then? Make some half-assed post about how you're going to 'step up' because no one else is, while claiming you're green every other line? Hypocrisy at its' finest here. Then there's an amusing little diversion about how Ace actually could have been an Assassin - but it's not like it really matters, as even you yourself note. What ARE you good for, then?
You know what, maybe you actually ARE town this game and just trolling around. Maybe you'll be town next game as well, and maybe for the one after that. But one of these days - and the day WILL come, mark my words, Bill - you'll turn out to be as red as a baboon's behind, and full of just as much BS. And on that day, you'll let something slip, or you'll make a mistake, or someone won't put up with your crap anymore - and suddenly you'll realize that you're very, very screwed.
And I'll be waiting for that time to come, just so I can enjoy every moment of watching you squirm as it all comes crashing down around you.
Mark my words, Bill.
Current thoughts:
First, Ace's list. The task he's asked everyone to do is to pore over Incognito, Scamp and madnessman's posts before/after the jpak vote while he looks to clear the first 7 of the list. By the way, Ace, l2count - there's 10 on your final list, not 8; and then, CynanMachae is dead. Since BC flipped Miller and not mafia the validity of the reasoning for analyzing this list becomes slightly weaker, though it's still a good place to start as far as checking people goes.
Actually, let's take a look at the last three on the list - specifically, madnessman has a couple of rather large gaps in posting. The first one is around *gasp* the jpak vote. After that, he puts his doubts on Ace's claim, before doing a complete 180 in opinion as soon as Ace names Caller as mafia. He makes a few one liners after that and then vanishes until attention was brought back to him by Ace's list. And even then, he comments on why he voted jpak again as opposed to anything else before then.
Scamp - I am thinking Ace wanted to call to attention to the "either it's jpak or nothing, so I'll go with jpak" comment and subsequent silence afterward. I don't really read much into this comment, actually. What actually bothers me more is the lack of posting here.
Incognito - I actually don't see much to latch onto here as far as the jpak vote goes. As for recent events... Incognito claims he took a hit last night. Depending on what he actually claims this can confirm the presence of a medic in the game, which is good, and the protect goes on Ace; at the very least we get less dead people and thus a little more leeway to lynch. While we're talking about Incognito - let's stay at least a little skeptical of his claim, though based on my gut I'd like trust him.
Second, our plan for tonight: medic(s) protect Ace. At best he lives, checks someone else, and we only lose two townies. Somewhere in the middle is losing 3 Townies; somewhere after that is losing our medic. Worst of all would be losing our medic AND DT (though we only suffer two deaths then).
Let's take that worst-case scenario. We'd be 11-6 with a double-lynch on the way, and not as much information to go off of. Missing both lynches would be completely unacceptable; going 1-1 is still winnable though we'd have to have the town completely unified and go for a double-lynch again. Stop. Is it advantageous to use a double-lynch tomorrow? Only so long as we can get two mafia. Do we have two candidates for lynch? Ace had mentioned a mass-roleclaim tomorrow, which I think if implemented should help greatly in that regard... but do we still want to go through with a double? I'm not sure anymore - anyone else want to chime in on this?
Let me go back to Ace's list for a second:
Fishball
KF91
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
meeple
BrownBear
Incognito
Scamp
madnessman
Both Osmoses and madnessman have been somewhat MIA; I am thinking there's something odd about this. Osmoses has cited that he's going to be busy a while back; I'd like to hear from him before we make any judgments. My thoughts on madnessman you can read above. Fishball's accusations look particularly questionable, as Ace is pretty much all-but-confirmed. I'm thinking the latter two are the ones we should be looking at in particular from this list, and maybe Osmoses if he doesn't check in with us soon.
Last thing I want to mention - though I've been looking at this from Ace's approach, I think there's a different way of going about it, which I'll try sometime tomorrow morning.
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*sigh* I don't wanna do more analysis. @_@
Scaramanga you're still not really posting... I mean if you're just going to use the excuse well I suck at this game so I'll just sit behind and watch and try to push people forward that's really no help. Dx
Could you perhaps do something like what I did? (pick a couple people, go through zBot and summarize their activities and then give your conclusion? If you suck at analysis at least someone else can go through the summary and pick up on things)
Anyway I'm done for the night.
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
Hahahahah, I love this game.
*raises hand from grave, waves, pulls hand back into the earth*
On April 25 2010 07:02 flamewheel91 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2010 07:01 L wrote:
THE SHOCKING PLOT TWIST REVEALS ITSELF. WILL OUR HEROS ESCAPE FROM THEIR CALAMITY? FIND OUT NEXT TIME ON....
MAFIA! Lo L.
FacepaLm.
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On April 25 2010 13:19 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2010 06:13 Bill Murray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2010 04:45 d3_crescentia wrote:@Ace: How about this - I actually thought Caller was innocent. Guess it means my scumdar's better than yours? Actual reasoning: out-of-game behavior comparison, back from when me and Caller were on the same Mafia team in WaW. In chat he kept suggesting ridiculous things (you might even remember some of them) to say or do, and we kept telling him no... in comparison, this game he was ridiculously chatty and playing far more aggressively, like he had nothing to lose. I didn't really care that he used improper terminology or whatever but I guess it's because I'm not that careful of a reader. As for RaGe, I missed his post where he said to keep accusations out of Day 1, read some other arguments against it and then agreed with said arguments. I was doubly wrong, since I didn't actually read RaGe's post as carefully as I should have in the first place, and then failed to read the responses carefully to see if there was some sort of discrepancy. That being said, if you'd like to check me to prove how useless I am, go ahead. @Korynne: my reasoning for Day 3 lynch was a mathematical inference based on having 2 Assassins, not based on any sense of good play. We can afford to double mislynch on Day 3, and in the case of 2 Assassins we needed to hit 1 Mafia. With 3, 4 it would have been less safe in that we would need a double and hit both, but I was hoping that by then we would have been able to root out some mafia. Going to eat breakfast, brb. We're going to need a plan for tonight/tomorrow. instead of saying "we're gonna need a plan", why can't u actually do something and propose one? Maybe you should stop pointing the finger at other people and actually post something yourself? I've been waiting since Day 1 for you to actually start looking for scum and what have you done since then? Make some half-assed post about how you're going to 'step up' because no one else is, while claiming you're green every other line? Hypocrisy at its' finest here. Then there's an amusing little diversion about how Ace actually could have been an Assassin - but it's not like it really matters, as even you yourself note. What ARE you good for, then? You know what, maybe you actually ARE town this game and just trolling around. Maybe you'll be town next game as well, and maybe for the one after that. But one of these days - and the day WILL come, mark my words, Bill - you'll turn out to be as red as a baboon's behind, and full of just as much BS. And on that day, you'll let something slip, or you'll make a mistake, or someone won't put up with your crap anymore - and suddenly you'll realize that you're very, very screwed. And I'll be waiting for that time to come, just so I can enjoy every moment of watching you squirm as it all comes crashing down around you. Mark my words, Bill.
Current thoughts: First, Ace's list. The task he's asked everyone to do is to pore over Incognito, Scamp and madnessman's posts before/after the jpak vote while he looks to clear the first 7 of the list. By the way, Ace, l2count - there's 10 on your final list, not 8; and then, CynanMachae is dead. Since BC flipped Miller and not mafia the validity of the reasoning for analyzing this list becomes slightly weaker, though it's still a good place to start as far as checking people goes. Actually, let's take a look at the last three on the list - specifically, madnessman has a couple of rather large gaps in posting. The first one is around *gasp* the jpak vote. After that, he puts his doubts on Ace's claim, before doing a complete 180 in opinion as soon as Ace names Caller as mafia. He makes a few one liners after that and then vanishes until attention was brought back to him by Ace's list. And even then, he comments on why he voted jpak again as opposed to anything else before then. Scamp - I am thinking Ace wanted to call to attention to the "either it's jpak or nothing, so I'll go with jpak" comment and subsequent silence afterward. I don't really read much into this comment, actually. What actually bothers me more is the lack of posting here. Incognito - I actually don't see much to latch onto here as far as the jpak vote goes. As for recent events... Incognito claims he took a hit last night. Depending on what he actually claims this can confirm the presence of a medic in the game, which is good, and the protect goes on Ace; at the very least we get less dead people and thus a little more leeway to lynch. While we're talking about Incognito - let's stay at least a little skeptical of his claim, though based on my gut I'd like trust him. Second, our plan for tonight: medic(s) protect Ace. At best he lives, checks someone else, and we only lose two townies. Somewhere in the middle is losing 3 Townies; somewhere after that is losing our medic. Worst of all would be losing our medic AND DT (though we only suffer two deaths then). Let's take that worst-case scenario. We'd be 11-6 with a double-lynch on the way, and not as much information to go off of. Missing both lynches would be completely unacceptable; going 1-1 is still winnable though we'd have to have the town completely unified and go for a double-lynch again. Stop. Is it advantageous to use a double-lynch tomorrow? Only so long as we can get two mafia. Do we have two candidates for lynch? Ace had mentioned a mass-roleclaim tomorrow, which I think if implemented should help greatly in that regard... but do we still want to go through with a double? I'm not sure anymore - anyone else want to chime in on this? Let me go back to Ace's list for a second: Fishball KF91 d3_crescentia Osmoses meeple BrownBear Incognito Scamp madnessman Both Osmoses and madnessman have been somewhat MIA; I am thinking there's something odd about this. Osmoses has cited that he's going to be busy a while back; I'd like to hear from him before we make any judgments. My thoughts on madnessman you can read above. Fishball's accusations look particularly questionable, as Ace is pretty much all-but-confirmed. I'm thinking the latter two are the ones we should be looking at in particular from this list, and maybe Osmoses if he doesn't check in with us soon. Last thing I want to mention - though I've been looking at this from Ace's approach, I think there's a different way of going about it, which I'll try sometime tomorrow morning.
I figured either Ace or RoL weren't a detective...
Excuse me for having a life.
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Belgium9953 Posts
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Wow... BC a miller too? Seriously, what are the odds? I don't know, but unless we're all millers the odds of Ace getting lucky twice in a row must be infintesimal, he's a detective for sure. His analysis doesn't seem very brilliant (though to be fair I suspected both Caller and BC too :p) but he does have rc, so all medics on Ace and... Then what? What do we do with our next double lynch? KF91 has been convincingly pro-town throughout this game and his arguments make sense, so how about his list? Scara, Fishball and Scamp? We can't just go for Ace's rcs, we'll be dead long before we get half of them.
If everyone role claims now, does that really help us? What's stopping mafia from role claiming too and confusing us to hell? We don't know how many blues there are and as previously stated confirming role checks takes at least 2 days (check, kill, confirm).
Suspicion that a character once thought trustworthy may not be trustworthy!
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Also, where the hell are the vigilantes and Mad Hatters? Unless I missed something, I have yet to see a kill from any vigilantes or the second Mad Hatter, if there is a second.
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Uh Osmoses are you just trying to be confusing with that last line in your post?
Also BC was checked by RoL, not Ace. >.>
Ace caught a mafia today... *disregarding your post and analysis until you learn to read*
[Checked through Osmoses' posts, this one doesn't seem inconsistent other than like 2 pieces of misinformation]
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BrownBear, I think we somewhat established that there are no more vigis (if there are then they're not very cool when they didn't kill BC last night Dx), or they got roleblocked but that would be pretty good read from mafia (though we've already established that mafia could be good at blue snipes).
A mad hatter and vigi already died, and some people say that more than that would be too much KP, from the perspective of the game maker.
Also Mad Hatter only performs his kills when he dies (in which case the two people he placed bombs under die as well) so we wouldn't know about their possible kills either.
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On April 26 2010 05:08 Korynne wrote:
Uh Osmoses are you just trying to be confusing with that last line in your post?
Also BC was checked by RoL, not Ace. >.>
Ace caught a mafia today... *disregarding your post and analysis until you learn to read*
[Checked through Osmoses' posts, this one doesn't seem inconsistent other than like 2 pieces of misinformation]
Hmm oh yeah, forgot about that. The last line was just my way of sharing a funny youtube vid.
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On April 26 2010 01:07 Osmoses wrote:Wow... BC a miller too? Seriously, what are the odds? I don't know, but unless we're all millers the odds of Ace getting lucky twice in a row must be infintesimal, he's a detective for sure. His analysis doesn't seem very brilliant (though to be fair I suspected both Caller and BC too :p) but he does have rc, so all medics on Ace and... Then what? What do we do with our next double lynch? KF91 has been convincingly pro-town throughout this game and his arguments make sense, so how about his list? Scara, Fishball and Scamp? We can't just go for Ace's rcs, we'll be dead long before we get half of them. If everyone role claims now, does that really help us? What's stopping mafia from role claiming too and confusing us to hell? We don't know how many blues there are and as previously stated confirming role checks takes at least 2 days (check, kill, confirm). Suspicion that a character once thought trustworthy may not be trustworthy!
I was hoping you'd come back and post something that would be a bit more thought out, but alas - my hopes were dashed, and you're going to have to go on my super special awesome list.
First of all, I'm not entirely sure we should actually double-lynch anymore. We don't seem to have any candidates; after tonight's deaths we will have SOME additional information to work with but I'm not entirely sure if it's ideal for double-lynch. Secondly, we have some pretty accurate information already about whatever blues we have left in the game - 1 Medic and 1 DT (Ace), likely no more Vigilantes/Hatters and MAYBE a Veteran. The point shouldn't be to individually check everyone but to narrow down our list of suspicions and hammer those people. We can potentially solve conflicting blue claims by double-lynch; then we can narrow down between our jpak list and those that claim townie.
What happens if it draws out our medic into the open (assuming he/she survives tonight)? Tomorrow we'd look at an 11-6 situation knowing two people are clear at the very least. Ace has been pretty good at finding scum but at this point we need to watch who's pointing fingers and who ISN'T pointing fingers at whom. This is the kind of approach that I was thinking about taking in regards to analysis, but I've been holed up in bed for most of the day, and there's actually a good amount of time before the next Day comes up.
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Osmoses: Please explain why you think KF91 has been convincingly pro-town this entire game. Best I see, before he made that post with opinions on players on that list, he did exactly what he made a post against Infun about. Commenting on things in general, never really offering an opinion, never really making a solid stance.
And what about myself, Scara, and Fishball? Do YOU have any opinions of us three, or are you just throwing this out there?
On April 25 2010 13:19 d3_crescentia wrote:Scamp - I am thinking Ace wanted to call to attention to the "either it's jpak or nothing, so I'll go with jpak" comment and subsequent silence afterward. I don't really read much into this comment, actually. What actually bothers me more is the lack of posting here.
I don't think Ace wanted to call attention to that comment. He just made a note of it and moved on. I didn't think there was anything wrong with it, hence I didn't say anything. I do have a problem with you going: "Ace wanted this, I'm bringing it up but I don't really care."
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d3: Uh, we have 2 medics/veterans no? Considering 2 hits were avoided last night.
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On April 26 2010 07:24 Scamp wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2010 13:19 d3_crescentia wrote:Scamp - I am thinking Ace wanted to call to attention to the "either it's jpak or nothing, so I'll go with jpak" comment and subsequent silence afterward. I don't really read much into this comment, actually. What actually bothers me more is the lack of posting here. I don't think Ace wanted to call attention to that comment. He just made a note of it and moved on. I didn't think there was anything wrong with it, hence I didn't say anything. I do have a problem with you going: "Ace wanted this, I'm bringing it up but I don't really care."
Sorry, I am a pretty bad chronic misreader, apparently. This is all in reference to the fragment quoted below:
On April 24 2010 14:41 Ace wrote:Sooo how does this all work? Simple. I want the town to go back and check out the posts->votes of Incognito, Scamp and madnessman right before the train on jpak was started by BC. Check all their posts around that time and then slightly right after the lynch. If you find anything scummy point it out. This is not meant to accuse them of being scum right off the bat. This is meant for tomorrow when the role claims come out  .
I thought Ace wanted us to check out three peoples' posts and see if there was anything scummy to note during the jpak lynch, though now that I reread it he was actually talking about before the vote.
On April 26 2010 07:31 Korynne wrote:
d3: Uh, we have 2 medics/veterans no? Considering 2 hits were avoided last night.
I thought one of our medics died. Incognito claimed he took a hit... did someone else claim?
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Hobbes died way long time ago.
Incognito claimed he took a hit, but there were 2 hits.
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where are all the posts? i demand to be entertained!
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On April 26 2010 09:32 Korynne wrote:
Hobbes died way long time ago.
Incognito claimed he took a hit, but there were 2 hits.
Still somewhat confused about this. Who said something about a second hit?
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EPT
