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ok. let's say i were mafia. why would i want to go inactive, when it would be SO much easier for me just to see what everyone else is posting, and just casually and nondescriptly tack my vote on to somebody's bandwagon? given how inactive this thread is, i could even BE pretty inactive without publicly declaring so, and chances are nobody would even notice, since everyone seems to be--likewise--inactive. Really bad WIFOM, especially given that pretty much all of the votes are spread out. Why?
Are townies too afraid to agree, or are they trying to put FoSs everywhere to make someone screw up? Are mafia trying to make their votes blend in as much as possible rather than start a train on someone who will flip innocent?
There are two possible explanations to this: either mafia is content with where votes are and don't really feel like throwing their weight around, or they realize people are fucking around and don't care.
There are two vote 'strings' in play right now:
BM/Vivi
voting for
Cynan
voting for
RoL
voting for
L
and
madnessman
voting for
KF91
voting for
flamewheel
Players who are 2 rungs apart are more likely to be on the same team.
Possible pairings:
flamewheel/madnessman
L/Cynan
BM or Vivi/RoL
Oddly enough, madnessman made his first post with a very light FoS against flamewheel. I know I'm legit, so pair 2 is false. As for BM/RoL or Vivi/RoL being put on the same team; I'd think that would be highly improbable.
Other possible pairings involve players who haven't voted yet, so Foolishness/xxx or flamewheel/xxx
Given the link between madnessman and flamewheel, I'm going to start off putting my vote on flamewheel to see wuts up.
##vote flamewheel91##
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well, he hasn't messed up yet, and you just said madnessman had a scum tell....
i can also say that i'm clean, but that still leaves vivi/rol in that pairing, which is highly possible in my opinion as both are veteran players. Is it random who is red? If it was, I'd think I'd have been red by now!
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On April 01 2010 04:05 flamewheel91 wrote:
CynanMachae: I'd very much like to hear your expanded reason as to why you're voting RoL, especially since he hasn't been around to present much.
Expanded reasons? Really, he hasn't showed up since spamming "hai guys" and voting Flamewheel to "start up drama", and then saying he need information hence he's posting, but just disappears. Aside from FlameWheel nobody else called him up on that.
Also L, you "string" vote reasoning seems useful, but I'm not sure I understand how you can say that most likely teams are 2 strings apart. Why not 3 or 4? Seems to me you can only get some unlikely teams from that. Or maybe I didn't get something.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
@L: Typing up yet another long-ass post.
@Cynan: I'm about to. Sit tight.
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On April 01 2010 07:36 flamewheel91 wrote:
@L: Typing up yet another long-ass post.
@Cynan: I'm about to. Sit tight.
Make it concise, cutie.
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On April 01 2010 07:32 CynanMachae wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2010 04:05 flamewheel91 wrote:
CynanMachae: I'd very much like to hear your expanded reason as to why you're voting RoL, especially since he hasn't been around to present much.
Expanded reasons? Really, he hasn't showed up since spamming "hai guys" and voting Flamewheel to "start up drama", and then saying he need information hence he's posting, but just disappears. Aside from FlameWheel nobody else called him up on that. Also L, you "string" vote reasoning seems useful, but I'm not sure I understand how you can say that most likely teams are 2 strings apart. Why not 3 or 4? Seems to me you can only get some unlikely teams from that. Or maybe I didn't get something.
Because if you're mafia, you want to kill the people who think you're mafia. Additionally, given how spread out the votes are, its unlikely that the person seeding the vote will be found responsible for starting a wagon, so its a relatively low risk method of having someone back off from your buds.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
On April 01 2010 07:37 L wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2010 07:36 flamewheel91 wrote:
@L: Typing up yet another long-ass post.
@Cynan: I'm about to. Sit tight. Make it concise, cutie.
I'm tryin', love. It has short truncated paragraphs and everything!
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read the rest of the thread, and have class now. It definitely bothers me that the mafia aren't doing anything meaning they're perfectly happy with where the votes are now. I'll be back in ~90 mins to post more thoughts before night.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
Thank you L, glad to hear what you have to say. Since you are seemingly not actually going with a full accusation against me, I'm going to treat my defense more as a way for me to make my first accusation.
Also, oops I lied this isn't short at all. But it still has some nice white spaces in between crushing walls of text!
First off, to point out something about the "being put on the same team" statement: random number generator. Same "highly improbable" probability as any two people. But moving on from there:
To make sure I have what you're saying correct: If I am to vote for madnessman, that would complete your 'chain' and make me more suspicious, yes?
Oh, and "I know I'm legit," so pair 1 is false as well 
But that's for me to know, and up for me to prove, yes?
madnessman's first post is, yes, directed at me in the FoS form of "why so wordy?" However, his next accusatory post is also directed at me, again in a heavier FoS form of "why so wordy?" Shortly thereafter, he makes a kind of "oops how does he defend my random speculation post."
Now, let's look at some options, shall we? I will limit it to the 'second voting cycle' as well as assuming there are either 2 mafia in this current 3-person cycle (madnessman and myself) or one solitary person as mafia given the 'two rung theory'.
1) madnessman and I are both mafia! Great! madnessman votes for KF91, who is voting for me, in an attempt to kill KF91 off before he can expose his mafia partner. Wait, why is he accusing me then? Oh, wait, he backs off after claiming he does not have 'enough of a base' to work off of. Awesome, he gets to accuse and vote for KF91 while making the connection between us not so obvious. Could this work? Yes? Can I discount it completely other than say "I'm not mafia?" No, so we'll have to keep going.
2) madnessman is mafia, and KF91 and I are not. Cool! Same reasons for how things run out as above, but he's trying to implicate me as well without fully committing.
3) KF91 is mafia, and madnessman and I are not. madnessman genuinely believes that KF91 is mafia, but doesn't trust me. He votes for KF91 without letting up all suspicion on me. KF91 votes for me because he doesn't like wordiness, though he'll appear before voting ends in order to check things out and reevaluate.
4) I'm mafia! Except for I'm not. Though if I were, I haven't openly accused anybody yet, only light FoS in order to get them to post. I haven't actively hounded neither KF91 nor madnessman.
5) None of us are mafia. Definitely a possibility. But the whole point of the game is to be suspicious, yah?
All fine and dandy. If I were to be the type of person to revenge-accuse, I'd be like "OMG VOTE KF91 HE IS MAFIA." Which would tie into myself and madnessman being on the so-called 'team', eh? And if we were, would I vote for madnessman? Nah, I'd vote for KF91 then. All peachy, yes?
But no.
##Vote RebirthOfLegend##
Reasoning: Very little to, I'd dare say, no content in his posts.
+ Show Spoiler [RoL's posts] +On March 30 2010 11:28 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
OMM HERE On March 30 2010 13:50 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
hai guyz On March 31 2010 04:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
lol wtf? I am already getting raped for inactivity? You guys are crazy.
I dunno if there is much to post for the first day so ima just say it.
##Vote Flamewheel91##
LETS GET THE DRAMA STARTED. On March 31 2010 04:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Oh also, I have work in around an hour, so I won't be active until tonight~~ On March 31 2010 04:09 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Actually, I change my mind.
##Vote L##
You are a pain in the ass to read, and I'd rather you be dead. On March 31 2010 11:36 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2010 11:25 CynanMachae wrote:
Lack of activity is indeed a bad thing, but so far there has been really little to talk about.
The one right now that drew my attention the most would be RoL, spamming stuff and "starting drama" as he said.
Also, as someone (Flamewheel?) pointed out, comparing people's behavior with past games is a good part of what we should do; is this game KF91's first on TL? I NEED INFORMATION TO WORK WITH, ITS WHY I POST. At this point I have nothing to say. There is no plan to establish, everything obvious has been said. No lynch is a dumbfuck move. Don't lynch RC blues because they aren't mafia. If someone RC blue and you are that role. Counterclaim immediately. Trading blue for red is beneficial to the town. ALRIGHT?
Let's take a look at them, shall we?
-His first post is right after the pms are sent out, and right before the game officially starts. Spam.
-His second post is also just-as-worthless flak, after L and I have our first back-and-forth over the wordiness of my posts. Also spam.
-His third post is a vote for me, a call for drama to start. Cool.
-His fourth post tells us he is going to be at work. Remember, this is yesterday.
-His fifth post, a whole 7 minutes later after his first vote, calls for L to die instead because RoL doesn't want to read his stuff. Third and fifth posts? Dribble, useless, jesting votes that spur no worthwhile discussion. FoS on me has nothing to do with what RoL says, and very little is said about L from people other than Foolishness.
-His sixth and last post is a call to complain about needing information. At this point, enough has been exchanged in the thread that he at least should be able to say something more than "I NEED INFORMATION TO WORK WITH."
Now, I can assume he's at work again. However, he has contributed next to nothing in the time that he should have had to post, that is, the time "tonight" (last night) in which he only posted a complaint.
Conclusion? While I've heard enough "RoL sucks at contributing in mafia" jokes to take them with a grain of salt, this level of activity and contribution to the game appalls me. While I am not 100% sure with my accusation, he stands out in my mind enough that I do not hesitate to make this my formal call-out against him.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
Expanded thoughts on every other player to be typed up starting now. Will be done in a while because I like typing a lot of shtuff^^
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"Other possible pairings involve players who haven't voted yet, so Foolishness/xxx or flamewheel/xxx"
Flamewheel and CynanMache imo.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
Hi Bill,
Glad to see you're taking L's word as your truth. To me, your IMO doesn't matter much without any proof. Just because I don't disagree with Cynan doesn't mean I support him. Give me reasoning, or give me death! (Since without reasoning, death is assured in this game )
Sincerely,
flamewheel91
P.S.: I'm so glad you made my name red! It really brings out the fire in me!
P.P.S.: Jocular mode disengaged.
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my reasoning is the fact that you are reiterating a point that someone has already made. buddy-buddy behavior like this could be a tell as there are only two mafia. that is my reasoning.
##vote flamewheel91##
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
On March 31 2010 12:00 Bill Murray wrote:
you know what's funny L...
we got each other killed day 1 in ace's game
and we were trying to help each other! lol
Kthxbai.
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?? even more suspicious is the way that you're behaving with the FoS on you
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
Oh, and if your ?? is really as incredulous as I make it out to be, I'm just pointing out your hypocrisy over your "buddy-buddy" call-out.
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you're making absolutely no sense to me. i'm going to keep my vote on you unless something drastic happens.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
What do you mean, Bill. With that last statement, you've lost all credibility. I sat here for 20 minutes waiting for a detailed, well-written post on your thoughts, and instead you give me dribble.
See, saying things like "you're being suspicious" and "you're not making sense" doesn't mean shit to any sensible person without you giving a reason. I'm behaving suspiciously under FoS? Your claim? You should give a reason why, else it's a worthless statement.
I like how you've (ostensibly) been here the whole time, yet after 20 minutes shoot back with that last little gem of yours. Saying "I'm going to keep my vote on you unless..." is a perfect way for you to dodge activity, something the town doesn't want. Are you still randomly throwing your vote on me? Are you actually committed to a target? If you are still being random, you're a cool cat. You've contributed little and accused a lot, though your senseless accusations have drawn defenses. If you've committed, you also are doing a poor job in showing that, with your lack of reason.
So far in this argument you've made one claim against me: I'm being "buddy-buddy" with Cynan. Awesome, that could be scumtell! However, I've shown with my post about you saying you're "helping L" that your reasoning is flawed and hypocritical due to similar conditions, yet you don't see me jumping on you for being mafia do you?
I'll ask you again, nicely, to please explain your reasoning behind your sudden and unabated accusations against me. By dismissing what I'm saying offhand, you not only invalidate your own arguments but also cause yourself to look more untrustworthy.
As a bonus, I've got my first two "analyses" done. Ironically, they are on Bill and Cynan since I'm moving down the page.
Bill Murray: + Show Spoiler +As said before, Bill is playing differently, much differently this game. Admirable, I’d say—experience works wonders. No longer spamming, no longer having a shitfest with L (okay well it was actually more one-sided before with Bill trying to ingratiate himself). In particular, the lack of spamming. What does this mean? I’ve never seen Bill in a game as mafia, so I cannot fathom how he’d post. Is this new style of posting his ‘mafia style’? A general rule of thumb is to post similarly as mafia and townie, since then people can’t pull the “well he’s using a different play style.” Bill’s certainly different, and he’s drawing attention. Is he mafia trying to cover up under the guise of improvement? Is he a townie actively trying to improve I don’t know, but at least he’s stirring discussion what with his “traps” and “random votes.” Oh, he does slightly call out Foolishness, except for I read that as more of a defense for Foolishness than FoS Tacked on since the start of his little call-out on me: see above. If he is being random, while it is conducive to drawing defense, he also doesn't have to present his own ideas, nor does he commit since it's all "random." If he's committed on me (which he says he has), then he is not offering suitable reason. Suspicion up.Suspicion? + Show Spoiler +Relatively high, given his different posting style, his ingratiating attitude toward L, and his lack of real contribution besides randomly throwing around votes. Oh, and as I type this he’s accusing me. Wait, so you’re just jumping off what L said? Huh??? Talk about “buddy-buddy” actions… re: see what Versatile says (lol). I'm not convinced enough about Bill in order to vote him at this point (wasn't overly suspicious until his recent actions) but he's getting there.
CynanMachae: + Show Spoiler +Dislikes random kills. Awesome. FoSes on RoL. Awesome as well. Checks up on KF91 to glean information. Awesome x3. Stirs some discussion with the FoS on RoL (I pick up on that, as can be seen above) and draws KF91 more into the light. I’m still suspicious of him though, despite his largely pro-town actions, due to the fact that his contributions to discussion have been minimal. He needs to start talking more and place value into being more active in the town. Suspicion? + Show Spoiler +Relatively low, given his pro-town actions. Of course, anybody can be ‘pro town,’ but Cynan is not very high on my suspect list.
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you know, I was considering putting my vote on flamewheel, but then I looked more closely between him and L. L really hasn't done much of anything this game and explicitly said he was sitting back and waiting. Then instead of trying to do much behavioral analysis, he just shows up and does some crap with votelists and magical theories then votes flamewheel.
I'm still not happy with flamewheel's vote on rol because I really do think he's town, but at this point, I think its really likely that flamewheel or L is mafia. At this point, because of his relative inactivity and lack of useful posts, I'm going to go for L.
##Vote L##
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EPT
