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On March 27 2010 12:47 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Ironically, I am quoting the dead here. Show nested quote +On March 27 2010 03:57 Versatile wrote:
yes. no. 1st day roleclaims are stupid.
honestly. even IF i were a fan of first day roleclaims, vivi didn't do it right.
#1. if you're going to roleclaim, do it in a timely fashion. let's say he roleclaimed earlier, given us maybe 24hrs to validate his claim. first off, that gives us a chance to see if anyone else counterclaims. if there isn't a counterclaim, that works in the claimer's favor and maybe some votes would get moved around. if there IS a counterclaim, well, good job, now we've got 1 confirmed mafia.
but this is really risky and i doubt mafia would go for this strategy.
#2. why the HELL would a medic claim? the medic cannot protect them self....so. give yourself away to mafia, why don't you?
so, back to square one, first day claiming sucks. I agree completely with Versatile here. Ace I don't agree with killing the roleclaimer and I think vivi did a horrendous job with it. The problem is that you logically are correct. You CANNOT confirm a medic claim without sacrificing the other medic. However the mafia are risking that there is not another medic in the game. If there is a medic in the game then what will happen is the medic just has to claim as well and we kill the first claimer, and then kill the counterclaim if necessary. The only problem here is that there is no way of knowing whether or not there is a medic so its a real risky play on mafias part. So I think killing a claimer either way is worth it. In this setup losing your medic or DT for a mafia is completely worth it. Either one cannot be validated since an actual DT would check someone and know if they were town aligned or mafia aligned and a fake DT would know who the mafia are. No role claims can be substantiated, ever. But I do overall agree, first day claiming is dumb, and as a mafia move it is even more stupid. However a kill-able offense is questionable considering how much more risky it is as mafia, considering counter claim = rape and you pointed out how much it can suck losing a mafia member real quick. Since even you Ace disagree with the depth of a WIFOM argument I am going to have to say you are mafia. We can say that Citizen argued with Vers because he read her role perfectly then killed her so that he would be "suspicious" because of his arguing with her, which would be what Ace would do because he knows how the town would read it. It is much easier (and goes with what you believe) to say that you killed Versatile because you had a read on her and either purposely or coincidentally Citizen had been fighting with her the entire time. Which would be Citizen mind fucking us. From day 1. ##Vote Ace##Sorry buddy, no scum in my city. Anyway guys, that is my thought for the day. I am going to head to sleep and I have 12 hours of work tomorrow so I won't be on again until late at night (another 10:30 EST approx) GL Anyone disagree with my analysys? My secondary suspect is Fishball, but I am not too convinced on anyone else <3
While I endorse your conclusion, I have to agree with Ace and say there is very little logic here. As far as I can tell anyway.
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On March 28 2010 04:26 Ace wrote:
what? assume one of the active players is Mafia?!?!??!
Explain how this makes sense?
So ok. Myself and citizen are the most active players. You guys lynch me and I flip green, then citizen being the only active poster is killed and flips green.
So what do we do next?
It's not an issue. If the town screws up this lynching the game is over. I've discussed why before.
Why I continue to think Ace is the best candidate: wrong on the vivi argument; keeps ignoring posts, preferring vagueness and calling me "scummy" instead of discussing anything of substance. That said, Ace is known to be impatient with bad players (vivi?). Also, if he is green and accused by me it's only natural he would feel I'm red.
So in the end I feel there is a 50% chance Ace is red. This sucks, given it's now or never. Still, picking someone else would be even more of a crapshoot. The hugely lucky Mafia + inactive town means there is nothing more I can do.
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On March 28 2010 05:00 nemY wrote:
Wow holy shit...
Massive contribution, now we're getting somewhere!
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This actually good - I feel better about voting for you since you are wrong on every single one of the 4 sub-points. I'll explain tonight... we'll go through these arguments one more time, slowly, even though most have been covered already. No. 4 is new material though, and doesn't make you look very good.
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Apologies for the wall of text. If you are town, please do try to read it sometime in the next day, before you cast your vote.
Statement 1.
Ace: 1.) I am not wrong on the vivi argument. You asked my opinion and I stated it. How is it that all of a sudden it's purely wrong even though you voted for Vivi? Whether you were at work or not isn't even a relevant excuse. We can't prove that. The point is YOU had a vote on the dead medic so you are responsible just as much as I am.
I stated repeatedly, that in my view it was wrong to lynch someone who claimed blue on day one. I still think in this game the downside to lynching someone who claimed blue >> that the upside to going ahead with the lynching. You disagreed, and still do. This is where I think you are wrong.
Note that this is not primarily a discussion about actions, but about strategy / reasoning. This could be an honest mistake, of course. By itself it proves nothing, everyone makes mistakes.
Statement 2.
Ace: 2.) Keep ignoring posts? I respond to your accusations every time and in fact have proven you wrong. Remember how you claimed being your posting level is keeping the game active, but when I said the same thing you just blew it off?
That paragraph has two misleading claims in it.
2.) a. On ignoring posts - this was a direct reference to the fact that you repeatedly stated I could have saved Vivi. Example:
Show nested quote +On the other hand YOU could have saved him. You didn't change your vote and now want to make it look like I'm at fault. I've stood by my decision wholeheartedly while you are not even acknowledging you yourself are a cause of his death. More sketchy logic/selective reading. Of course, I already answered this in detail, twice in fact, and directly to Ace. Yet he continues to "forget".For the sake of playing along, here is what I said: Show nested quote +On March 26 2010 11:50 citi.zen wrote:On March 26 2010 11:43 Ace wrote:My reasoning is simple. I think Vivi is terrible. If you look at games Vivi plays he never helps the town. He just criticizes everyone and bitches and moans. This thread has only 7 pages and he's managed to accuse at least 3 people?! How is that good town play? Even with the last minute roleclaim he looked shoddy. When you are being band wagoned the last thing you'd want to do is accuse multiple people - they'll tend NOT to take their votes off of you in that case. Then again, your vote is on him too. Why didn't you switch?  You could have voted for Johnnyspazz and tied it up, hoping someone else switched their vote too. What was your reason for not switching, because we all know I wasn't going to move my vote anyway. As far as I go, he claimed medic at the wrong time: I left work, came home and spent time with the family, until the kid went to sleep.When I did see his post and had time to digest it I decided it made sense to switch. Unfortunately it was too late. I don't get how other people who were active in this and/or the other mafia game during this time did not reach the same conclusion. It's pretty rare to lynch someone who claims blue, in any mafia game, no? Ace, haster27, Fishball, Abenson, johnnyspazz (other thread) were all active after Vivi's claim but missed that.
Had you simply said you did not truest my explanation, I could have accepted that. Instead, you kept repeating in a matter-of-fact manner that I "could have saved Vivi". More deliberate confusion, as far as I can tell.
2.)b. Ace saying I blew off his claim to being very active. I addressed it directly:
Of course, "game activity drops" if you take any posts out of the thread. This is a moot point, different from my stronger claim: Show nested quote +On March 27 2010 11:42 citi.zen wrote:
I'll say this: take my posts out and you have nothing going on in this thread. Make up your own mids what, if anything, that means about my alignment. This is of course my own assessment - you all need to make up your own minds here.
Statement 3.
Ace: 3.) Not discussing anything of substance? Hello? I'm the one trying to keep the game going. You've asked me about Vivi, RoL has tried to have some sort of lopsided discussion with me and I've posted about everything from lynching lurkers to lynching unproved claimers. Your statement here is a lie.
Here Ace is responding to my statement that he repeatedly called me "scummy", which is a gimmicky way to make someone sound suspicious. Instead of substantiating his accusations he tries to deflect again and starts talking about Vivi, Rol, etc.
I'll put under the spoiler the consistent use of "scummy" I had in mind - Ace has been using it on me from day one.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2010 14:02 Vivi57 wrote:
I'm skiing (like I said, i'd be v/la until thursday) so I'll probably make this post tonight then one post tomorrow night and start being more active thursday night.
Right now, citi.zen is my most pro town read. He's doing a ton of crap and moving around votes to get discussion started and also attracting attention to himself. Both of these are something scum doesn't want to do.
Right now, I think my suspicion is on fishball. He posted a random OMGUS vote on nemy which in fine, but then he (jokingly) defended it
I really don't like fishball right now, but since I have a bigger suspicion, I'm going to call FoS: Fishball
As for my main suspect. Johnnyspaz just placed a random defense of me in the OMGUS stage of the game then placed a super late random vote on nemy. At that point, he should have come up with a decent reason because some discussion had occurred.
##vote johnnyspazz## On March 24 2010 14:12 Ace wrote:
Vivi you are so bad it's ridiculous.
"he's doing a ton of crap and moving votes around" - doing stuff is null and moving votes around is usually scummy. It's so early and not enough people have wagons on them so there isn't too much sketchiness about switching votes. However indecisiveness is usually meaning you can't make up your mind about something or just dont want to stand your ground, the latter of which is usually scummy.
The read on fishball is cool, but knowing that guy he voted for nemy for the lulz. On March 27 2010 12:43 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2010 11:42 citi.zen wrote:
Right... Vivi got medic and Versatile DT. Solid.
@ Ace - I am not surprised at all. I argued with two people: Versatile and yourself. She died. I look suspicious. You are alive. As stated multiple times, I also disagree with your statement that lynching Vivi was the right call, even after you saw he claimed medic. It's all in the thread, town-aligned players would read those exchanges.
I'll say this: take my posts out and you have nothing going on in this thread. Make up your own mids what, if anything, that means about my alignment.
If we screw up the day 2 lynch it's 3 v 2 on day 3, so all 3 town players would need to agree to vote for the same red player. Maybe it's time to start contributing.
##Vote Ace## You already know just like everyone else that Vivi claiming Medic wasn't going to change my vote. I've already explain that. So saying "even when you saw Vivi claim medic" isn't helpful at all. On the other hand YOU could have saved him. You didn't change your vote and now want to make it look like I'm at fault. I've stood by my decision wholeheartedly while you are not even acknowledging you yourself are a cause of his death. Likewise if you take my posts out of this thread game activity drops also. How does that make you more innocent than anyone else? @Fishball: Yea I know Verse better than anyone. Doesn't mean it's my fault she's dead. The more I read citizen's posts the more scummy he comes across. He points out that he argued with Versatile, she died, and he looks suspect. As if the notion of admitting he might be scummy clears him in my eyes. On March 28 2010 03:56 Ace wrote:
And yes I think citizen is scummy but for fear of lynching an innocent due to lack of activity I'm unvoting. We need more participation. I'd rather go into the night with a no lynch and 1 dead townie and possibly two dead townies for Day 3. By the way, read that last post again - it's worth it.
Statement 4.
4.) You say there's a 50% chance I'm mafia and it's now or never. So you aren't even sure I'm mafia and yet you think it's better to lynch me because picking someone else would be a crapshoot. Well isn't lynching me a crapshoot if you aren't even sure?!
The 50% chance Ace is red is clearly a subjective number based on my personal impression. Note this is not the part Ace takes issue with. He wants to know why, given this 50% number, I think it is better to lynch him than to choose at random someone else. This is why:
Other than myself and you, there are 5 other players left. The chance of picking a red by choosing randomly between the other 5 is: 50%*(1/5) + 50%*(2/5) = 30%. Since 50% > 30%, lynching Ace is the best I can come up with. It's "the better crap-shoot", if you will.
Now, in this game we do have the no-lynching alternative. Interestingly, Ace voted for it briefly, before going back to voting for me. I don't see how a no-lynch helps the town, we would be in the same exact spot day 3, but it would be 4v2 instead of 5v2. Unfortunately there is no activity in the thread and the DT is dead.
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On March 28 2010 13:58 johnnyspazz wrote:Show nested quote +That's 3 votes on me and no votes on anyone else since the day post and no one else finds this suspect? You're kidding right? i find this suspect! ##Vote citi.zen##
It's suspect alright: there are only 2 reds in this game, yet he's accusing 3 people at once.
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On March 28 2010 03:56 Ace wrote:
And yes I think citizen is scummy but for fear of lynching an innocent due to lack of activity I'm unvoting. We need more participation. I'd rather go into the night with a no lynch and 1 dead townie and possibly two dead townies for Day 3.
How does this suggestion not bother anyone else? Going into the night with a no lynch makes it 4 v 2 on day 3. No DT = no sure lynch. Also, the two mafia votes count more and more as there are fewer townies.
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On March 27 2010 12:11 Fishball wrote:Remaining Player listRebirthOfLeGenD Ace citi.zen Fishball haster27 johnnyspazz nemY 7 players left, 2 are Mafia. I know I'm green, so that leaves me with 6 choices. If I vote randomly, there is a 33% chance I will hit a Mafia. Now lets take a look at the order of Zona's list of players. Show nested quote +On March 21 2010 10:42 Zona wrote:
Player list
1. Abenson replaced by RebirthOfLeGenD (aka rol)
2. Ace
3. citi.zen (aka: citizen)
4. Fishball
5. haster27 (aka: haster)
6. johnnyspazz (aka: johnny, jonny, or jonnyspazz)
7. nemY
8. Versatile (aka: vers) the detective, killed Night 1
9. Vivi57 (aka: vivi) the medic, lynched Day 1 As pure speculation, it would be fair to say there will be a Mafia in 1-3 and another one in 5-7. Granted, this is purely speculation, as we already have 2 blues at the bottom of the list, and Zona might not have used the exact order to generate roles. There is a good chance that either Ace or citi.zen, that one of them could be red. This thread citi.zen has posted the most, with Ace being second. Versatile haven't posted much at all, just like me, Nemy etc., yet she was hit. Why? Previous history? Ace definitely knows her more than anyone else here. Random hit? Could be anyone. How random can this be? Of course people can say, "What if you are lying? What if you are Mafia?". Well to those 4 other Townies out there, you know who you are. I don't need you to believe what I say, but I want you to be aware of the situation.
Long post saying... that since you are in the middle of the alphabetical player list, you must somehow be innocent? And that there maybe is a mafia in slots 1-3, and another in slots 5-7 (surely not 4 though!) - even though the blues were both bottom of the list? You've lost me.
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I am not even sure where to start. There are only 2 reds, but far more people not making sense - meaning that pointing out inconsistencies will not help me get the mafia. Can't congratulate the mafia, this is primarily the town's own doing. So screw it, there is no more I can do here.
Go ahead and lynch me.
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On March 29 2010 01:08 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 29 2010 00:58 citi.zen wrote:
I am not even sure where to start. There are only 2 reds, but far more people not making sense - meaning that pointing out inconsistencies will not help me get the mafia. Can't congratulate the mafia, this is primarily the town's own doing. So screw it, there is no more I can do here.
Go ahead and lynch me. You've still got till 10 PM ET. I've also unvoted you as I think RoL is actually far more disgusting.
RoL is pretty bad at times and so are haster and Fishball with his 1 through 3 and 5 through 7 crap. Ace's argument on the no-lynch is very suspect: the town is in bad shape, and it will only get worse tomorrow if we skip the lynch; we have no "sure way to win" - especially without the DT, so taking the best shot we can today is a must. nemY barely contributes and tells us he plays with his gut and he's not good at analyzing posts. Johnny ain't trying.
I've done all I could to start some sort of discussion. I called out people repeatedly. I tried to analyze their posts. I am comfortable being lynched - I am simply at a loss as to what to do next.
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You mentioned RoL. Many things he said are inconsistent, but what bothers me most is saying he is SURE one of us is red. Now, for all our differences, I never claimed I can be SURE you are red - that would be absurd without a confirmed DT. Yet RoL is sure that if one of us flips green, the other is red - even saying he wishes he could 2x Lynch right now. This is of course the perfect Mafia set-up if we ARE both green - not only do you lynch one tonight but the other is lead candidate for tomorrow.
##unvote ace##
##vote RoL##
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On March 29 2010 02:52 nemY wrote:
For the record I don't really understand why people are for a "no-lynch" today. You guys keep saying either it'll be a "4v2" or a "3v2" when it could easily be a "4v1" if we hit mafia. Ace provides the best option for this at least in my eyes. I seriously feel like he's playing most of the town into his hands and I fail too see how at least some of you guys don't see this!
These are not bad points - it's similar to what I said: we need the 4v1, or we lose. I think 4v2 or 3v2 are both very bad. Since the DT is dead, I don't see how we can get much more information between now and day 3, so we'll back in the same place, forced to make a correct lynching based on incomplete information. We are delaying the do-or-die for no good reason, and in fact we'll have one less townie around.
I am also concerned about Ace, as well as RoL... it's a gamble either way.
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Having gone back over their posts, I think nemY and RoL are probably green and Ace is setting this whole thing up.
##unvote rol##
##vote ace##
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Parting words, while I am still allowed to write them: don't let Ace get away with this. Don't buy his illogical "no vote" argument, and don't let him say "hey, YOU voted for citi.zen, I wanted RoL all along" - he was always going to switch if needed. This passing of the blame is exactly what he's done with Vivi - go back and read the posts.
GL town.
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Oh waw, look at that :-)
Bye-bye now.
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wait, aren't days supposed to take 48h?
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LOL - that's quality. All nemY had to do was VOTE. Hahaha!
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nemY actually did well and deserved MVP were it not for tonight. What a time to go afk...
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It was nemY who bandwaggoned apparently, and did well with it.
Curious - was this your advice/strategy Ace?
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EPT
