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Bill Murray
please
please
please
give reasons as to why you think the way you do. If you could make a serious argument for Ace being blue or redtooth being mafia, that would be very game changing. But you're just making statements with no justification and that isn't helpful
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llooooool bill
care to provide justification for these statements?
-ace is blue -redtooth is red
or you can just keep clogging up the thread with trash posts that are saying absolutely nothing
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yes it was retarded
like everything else you have posted
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You're not helping the town by making ridiculous statements with literally zero justification
I would call that retarded, personally
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I'm running for mayor and I am pro-town.
Posting from the heart is garbage, don't just throw out your "feelings" if you don't have anything to back it up. You're just providing confusing and stupid distractions from posts with real points and arguments.
You dodged my demands that you justify your statements for a while when you posted your "mafia list"
Do you want me to keep pestering you or are you just going to continually waste everyones time?
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i find it a bit odd that BM says "the mafia are trying to confuse the town"
then immediately proceeds to post tons of confusing shit.
naturally people would think "oh a mafia would never do something that obvious" but perhaps, if BM is mafia, that is his desired defense. He certainly isn't doing anything to help the town whatsoever besides being a "confirmed" pro-town running for mayor
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[QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:33 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:23 DoctorHelvetica wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:16 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:04 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Information:
If flip red we can analyze:
Vocal Supporters Who voted for you for mayor, particularly while giving little reason Vocal accusers (L, Myself, laaan) are very likely not in the same mafia family as you People trying to distract attention from accusations toward you without offering a real argument A relatively large amount of posts to analyze from the perspective of a mafia from a specific family
If you flip green, it's fair to analyze: Vocal accusers seem more suspicious Voters for the most vocal accusers People who suddenly bandwagon against you late in the thread/without reason[/QUOTE]
If I flip red you can't analyze my vocal supporters. There aren't any. No one has supported me so far, only people who have said you guys may be wrong. That isn't support.
It doesn't matter if you're not in the same family - you'd still be suspect.
Who has tried to distract attention from this argument? List them please.
For the very last time, you can't analyze my posts. In fact before you even try and get me killed it might be a wise idea and analyze them now to see what you can find. And by analyze I don't mean "hey guys, look what Ace said" but more akin to what links if any you can see to other people. I ask this sincerely because before you try and kill me on the basis I'm Mafia you should do this BEFORE offing me to make sure you have some clue of what you are doing. Needless to say I think you're so off tangent so this will hopefully show you why you're wrong.
Now if you lynch me when I'm innocent you don't even get any more information based on my last paragraph. You have nothing to link me on. Nothing. you'd start the next day with the SAME information as the last. If you can prove me wrong, do it now by examining my posts and see what you can find that is going to be so mind blowing to the town it gets us a path to the Mafia. [/QUOTE]
[quote]You said yourself if you flip green, that myself/L/laaan are likely mafia. Saying there is no information to be gleaned from your death either way is silly.[/quote]
Look at my paragraph before the last then re-read what I was addressing. It makes perfect sense.
[quote] I wouldn't call ver a vocal supporter of you, but like redtooth said. If you are mafia, your allies will likely not vehemently defend you but perhaps try to discourage the use of clue analysis. Ver made a post a while back saying that "anyone discouraging clue usage is probably innocent" and it seems to me (please correct me if I'm wrong) that you tried to discourage redtooth from making anti-ver posts with your PM to him.
redtooth just now has added a fair amount to the case for you being scum. You're saying my suspicion isn't based on any analysis, but I've stated many times it has to do with your dodging L's questions, being unwilling to provide alternative solutions, and the biggest basis of your argument being "fuck you I'm ace i dont need to defend myself cuz im ace"[/QUOTE]
Ver, myself, MBH, and other have discouraged the use of clue analysis early on in past games. We are KNOWN to do this. This is why I said you pointing this out doesn't help your case. It's really not a big deal. You're trying to out think people when there isn't even a situation present.
And yes you're wrong. You should ask redtooth for the PM if you want clarity. I didn't try to influence redtooth in any way. If I wanted to do that I probably would have kept PMing him. He already showed me he was slightly distrustful of me when he cut the conversation short. For the record I don't even agree with Ver that anyone discouraging clue usage is possibly innocent because that's too wide of a blanket statement.
How does redtooth's post push me further to scum? PLEASE explain this. Honestly you're really talking lots of bull right now. I address arguments that warrant attention. I'm not here to constantly repeat myself. All the answers are in the posts. If you need help reading, ask for it. Like really you're so wrong and I hate to say it's because you're a newb but it's getting very close to that point. THINK before you post. Seriously. [/QUOTE]
How does it push you further to scum? lol
Because he provided reasons why he became distrustful of you and since he knows your posting style better than I do, I give a bit of credence to analysis. Why wouldn't additional reasons you may be mafia make me distrust you more?
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That isn't nonsense. To personally mistrust you more as additional reasons for that mistrust arise?
I didn't trust you from the beginning.
If you said, I didn't trust Bill Murray but given some new posts on the matter/things Player X pointed out I'm a bit more secure in the distrust, that would be perfectly reasonable
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How can anyone vote you as mayor and L as pardoner? You just put forth one vote and the positions are determined by rankings.
Alright, thanks for clearing that up redtooth. However, if he is responding/acting uncharacteristically that isn't something I'm going to ignore since I don't trust Ace in the first place. I really don't want to come off as hyper-aggressively pushing Ace to be killed, because I'm really not, but he is the best target for the town as far as I'm concerned.
My question is, if not Ace who? Convince me with reason to reach an alternate conclusion. Ace, you've refused to provide an alternative for the clue profile.
I'd be comfortable lynching Empyrean based off the very strong clue connection and his inactiveness, as an alternative. I also have minor suspicions toward BloodyC0bbler.
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Honestly it isn't funny anymore. Just stop.
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No. If you want to joke around in PM's that's fine with me. But you're honestly just shitting up this thread.
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It references a moon but it's really very weak compared to clues potentially pointing toward Ace or 789 in that aspect. It's good to keep in mind, but it seems most likely to me that it's a red herring.
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On February 16 2010 00:48 citi.zen wrote: As promised, I will share my partial thoughts on player behavior thus far. The list is in no particular order and is obviously not exhaustive.
Ver: in my post yesterday I complained about people who only make “general theory of mafia” posts. That complaint referred to you and Ace in particular: smart players who simply stated they should be trusted based on past games and that they are awesome mafia catchers, yet do not make any serious attempt to help in this particular game. The many half-truths Ver had posted puzzled me. Then came Ver’s two posts on page 50. What joy: coherent and helpful thoughts on the current game, plus a good, ernest analysis on Empryean. Glad to finally see a better side of you, and agree with much of what you said. Empryean clearly matches clues + is somewhat shady with his posts.
Ace: partly covered above - extremely frustrating posts from a smart/veteran player. In the same breath Ace argues clues are unreliable and we need to rely on posting behavior, only to immediately try to stifle any forum discussion with the “if you point your finger at me based on clues you must be mafia” argument, and the even more nonsensical follow-up “I set a trap, anyone who points a finger at me falls right into it”. How does this attitude help generate behavioral clues if nobody is allowed to talk about the clues? Combine this with the (perhaps too) strong clues linking Ace to both Mafia families, and Ace looks very shady to me.
BloodyCobbler: too little history, but seems a bit too quiet and has a clue link. One to watch, but too little there for me to push the button at this time.
redtooth: recklessly aggressive, quickly pointing fingers and pushing very hard for his election. Many of his arguments are not as strong as he seems to think/make them out, and his statement that “going with the town is spineless” makes me nervous if he is elected and acts on his own weird theories. That said, no clue link to him as far as I can tell, and the fact that he is putting himself out there with such abandon means he is most likely green/blue.
L: similar to redtooth in his willingness to point fingers at people, but much less aggressive in his campaign. He is one to watch for the future to be sure, but right now I would not pull the trigger on lynching him if I had that power.
Chezinu: if he is town purposely spamming it is very annoying, we’re already over 50 pages on day one. If he is red he is doing a good job I guess. In the end I don’t care, I would not mind seeing him gone, but he is not a top priority target I suppose. If I had to guess I would think this is exactly the reaction he is going for… so whatever.
Bill Murray: in my opinion he is perfectly consistent with his behavior from game XVI, where he played very sloppy. He was a freaking DT, telling random people his role and how his clue-check turned, asking for medic protection on the forum and in private messages, and coming up with crazy theories he thought were golden. Nothing new under the sun as far as I am concerned so I doubt he is red.
DoctorH: I cannot tell if this is mafia XVI 2.0 or him playing town. I am puzzled as to why he is going after Bill so aggressively. DrH was red in game XVI, yet Bill fucking confided in him through PMs that he was a DT and that I was clue-checked green. How can DrH not know/ignore the fact that Bill always makes mistakes galore? This makes DrH fishy to me, but in the end I am not yet ready to pull the trigger.
Zato-1: shady posting behavior already covered by others and clue link to dreamflower’s killer. He is on the shortlist.
Parting thoughts
Last game convinced me that, thanks to the "no DT check" rule, I can never trust an elected official, even when they helped catch many mafiosi. This will be even more of an issue this time around, since mafia officials DO want to lynch/catch other mafia.
Much as I like Ver’s recent posts, I therefore do not want him elected, but would instead put him on the “DT check shortlist” - he can be far more useful from that role. Per my analysis above, I will withdraw my vote for DrH - I just don’t get his very aggressive stance on Bill Murray. As things stand, I will probably vote for redtooth or L, hoping to get both of them elected. Bill Murray could be a 3rd choice, but given his past (and current?) blatant mistakes, I'd rather not go there.
I would also like to hear more from veteran players who remain very quiet. Zona, Scamp and BloodyCobbler come to mind.
In the meantime, as Ver said, the most useful thing we can do now is to try to advance the lit of suspects, and help DTs come up with people to role-check on night 1.
I don't understand what you mean by my aggressive stance on Bill Murray. If you think it's fishy that I would like Bill Murray to support his statements with actual arguments then I don't know what to say.
I will lynch Empyrean if I am elected, not BM.
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Have people forgotten that the likelihood of clue sets repeating is extremely low in this game? Everyone seems to insist the clues will be better later, why? If the mafia get 6 kills perfectly a night, which they won't, we won't see a repeating clue until Day 4.
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Spamming the thread full of what shit? Posting an objective compilation of everyones arguments? Compiling voting history? Defending myself when redtooth and Ace accused me of being mafia? Finally getting Bill Murray to justify his statements? Don't put me on the same level as BM TT___TT
I guess for the time being Empyrean is our best bet. Ver did a great job of pointing out the inconsistency in his pro-town/mafia behavior from past games and the clue connection is just very very very very strong.
Redtooth did a decent job of defending himself, or at least why it doesn't make sense that he and Ace are both in the same mafia family. His argument for him and ace not being in different mafia families doesn't make sense. "Why would mafia defend a mafia from another family/not mafia"
Unless he wanted to discourage clue analysis because he fears it will hurt his mafia family, or wanted to defend Ace because regardless of Ace's role his argumentation is successfully dividing the town. If redtooth is mafia, he has no way of knowing Ace's role anyway, so saying "i wouldn't defend another families mafia" makes no sense because he doesn't know who those people are. I really doubt the mafia are going to ONLY defend one another, look what happened when I got lynched in the last game. By analyzing who I defended/supported/whose clues I ignored the entire rest of the mafia family was caught.
I'm not accusing you of being mafia redtooth, I'm just pointing out that the argument falls short.
I'm voting for L because so far his arguments have been extremely consistent, he's been trying to get the town moving/discouraging waste posts, and providing excellent clue analysis. Redtooth shouldn't have a problem with this, don't you want L as the other elected role anyway?
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On February 16 2010 06:21 Bill Murray wrote: well, you are behaving completely different than you did last game meeple.
So is citi.zen and I think that is very worth noting. Also his logic is a bit shakier than the last game. He's trying to paint me red on the completely and utterly false accusation that I'm pressing hard for a Bill Murray lynch? Should we really be voting people for mayor who don't even read the thread and know what's going on?
On February 16 2010 06:24 Nikoner wrote: How do you expect DTs to come forward, they haven't even had the chance to do anything during the night yet. Only reason to come forward as a DT today would be if you're the godfather of a mafia so you could potentially infiltrate townie circles, and even then, it's way risky.
That's a fair point. It's only the first day and so much drama @___@.
Chezinu came forward as a DT, we can't forget about that.
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On February 16 2010 06:28 L wrote: Nikoner, not killing someone day 1 is generally a box of dumb. Even if it makes me look bad, its better to have 100% confirmable information for the town to work with regarding associations and whatnot.
My only fear is that ZERO people have pushed back against my claim against emp, and a number of people have tagged along well after i took pains to make it clear i wasn't dropping the accusation. Either one of the mafia teams is using him as a sacrifice to get, say, ver, to look good by supporting my position, or emp is green/blue and afk like a moron. Given his vote, it would seem that he isn't afk, which leads me to believe that killing him will at least give me some information. I'm actually more worried about how much information regarding clue interpretation for this game I can glean from a red or green flip than anything else.
Like i said; Grow some fucking balls.
It does seem strange to me that there was a big backlash at a strong clue connection to Ace but everyone accepted Empyrean rather quietly.
However, do consider the fact that there isn't really any herrings in the description of the radiant killer that point to anyone else. Empyrean simply fits. While Ace fits strongly, it was pointed out that 789 actually fits the clue profile very well also, so there is a bit more room for doubt.
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On February 16 2010 06:30 Bill Murray wrote: i'd like to point something out. if you say "this person is mafia" it is nearly flipping a coin as to whether or not you're right. the problem with this game is that they're going to be working together for a common goal, while the town has noone that they can trust/confide in to craft a plan for that common goal.
by "spamming the thread" with my campaign for office, and responding to people, I was simply trying to provide that to the town. Someone who is going to try to give a way for greens and blues to come together to actually try and discuss a common goal and how to achieve it.
What does that mean? How does spamming the thread provide a way for everyone to work together in peace?
You aren't playing this game. All of your posts were empty accusations and finger pointing with no justification until I pestered it out of you. Saying "this person is mafia" is perfectly fine if you can support that with reason and argument.
"I know I am green" doesn't make anyone trust you.
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On February 16 2010 06:52 SugiuraMidori wrote: So why are people voting for Chez all of a sudden? He just acts like a 12yr old kid that has yet to have his balls drop, as L so brilliantly pointed out. He also had 0 votes till now..
waste vote?
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