EPTBloodyC0bblers's Mafia XVI
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Iaaan
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Iaaan
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nice little rhyme with our old sheriff dying ;p | ||
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but if you don't delete anything I guess its not too big a deal. I do like how you looked at who doesn't have anything on their profiles, much harder to give a clue about one of them, but maybe easier to see if there is a clue about one of them (cause whats it going to be about other than their name/posts?) | ||
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Iaaan
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And with the elections, I think its most important that we do not elect a Mafia member into the position. But there's still plenty of time to think about the election, Day 1 doesn't end until thursday, correct? | ||
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On January 21 2010 03:21 SagaZ wrote: So who would you choose to be mafia? a guy without any info in his content so you will have to make clues entirely based on his name? Or the guy with the profile with the one you're able to make very smart clues that will make people go :O bisu mode. I like this, and not just because I don't have anything in my profile ;p but that said, I think the clues are the most important for the detectives to make choices about who to role check, obviously its going to be hard to be sure about what the clues are, and what they mean, so they aren't really grounds for lynching someone. What people actually post is far more important | ||
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Iaaan
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1. I'm sure that the Mafia will try to get at least one of their members elected into a position of power, that's an opportunity they would not want to pass up. It seems a bit silly for me to say this, but I am not a Mafia, and I think its most important that someone who isn't a Mafia gets elected. I'm sure we are all playing to win, so we as townies,want to make sure we have a townie as mayor/sheriff. (even though I'm sure the Mafia will think the same way... but still) 2. I plan to be reasonably active, so that's always good o: 3. I like to think I'm a logical thinker, I won't get emotional about things, but I will look at how people interact/support each other (especially with the voting, of course the Mafia will want to place their votes on their own candidate), and try to figure out who both the mafia are, as well as the detectives, because obviously their input is important. 4. The Mafia will want to kill the people suspicious of them, or who look they they have the best chance of figuring out who they are. So if I get elected, I will not only post whatever I think, but if you want to message me with something that could get you killed, I will pass that on for you, since I have protection, I can say anything I want. 5. I do not think that activity determines ones role, if someones wants to be active, they will be no matter what role that is. That said, completely inactive people are kinda boring, and you cant really tell much about them if they don't actually post anything, unless it comes through the detectives. So, if get the position of Mayor, right now my plan is to kill someone with no posts, unless there is evidence that suggests that someone is a Mafia member, however I don't know how much there can be before DT's start checking people, there are more deaths, and more people most. 6. I will keep my mind open, but I will still draw my own conclusions. The Mafia will try to influence us, and as such, I will consider peoples ideas, and incentives, as if they were a member of the Mafia, as well as a if they are a townie. Much more can be learned if we look at both points of views. 7. I don't want to get killed by the Mafia lulz. So yeah, vote for me! | ||
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Iaaan
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But again, all voters need to look carefully at the candidates (Me, Crescentia, Fulgrim, Xelin, and Tree.hugger so far) posts, and who supports who. If a Mafia gets one of those positions, especially Mayor, they will pretty much 100% kill a townie on the first day, and the power of 3 votes is pretty big, with all the Mafia together, they would have 8 votes, and used all together that is pretty big (about 1/4th of the population at the start, and it will continually grow), especially if they is indecision in the voting. So be careful! | ||
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Iaaan
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+ Show Spoiler + On January 21 2010 04:01 d3_crescentia wrote: Thanks for the enlightening post. I didn't mean to say that the first murder contained zero clues, just that there was nothing as far as manner of death goes. At the same time, I simply wasn't picking up on things. As for water-related things, there's also drinking. What makes me doubt, though is that the section is written in segments of both prose and poetry. My thought is that the prose would indicate what the real clues were, so you might be right about the tender-softer connection. Of course, I could be completely off-base with the poetry/prose thing, so... + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 18:03 d3_crescentia wrote: Hi everybody, I'm glad to be in this game of TL-Mafia. Some thoughts/analysis... The lines that are bolded are written in prose. The lines that are not make some attempt to rhyme. I feel that the prose lines contain the clues, though it could be the other way around. For the most part, I agree with no_re's preliminary judgments - the broken flower vase, the "quick attack" - though I think that we're going to need more analysis overall to figure things out. Also, there's that bit about the cave by the shore... more in a later post. Truthfully, though, I think we'll end up learning a lot more about people once elections are underway. + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 13:09 QuickStriker wrote: Now, I also want to just to throw out another simple facts out there: List of names who have absolutely nothing on profile (meaning no pics and sig) : Xelin RoyW ItsPaul dozko laaan Rainbow Jadefist 7Strife no_re Gaizka Man.Magic johnnyspazz That is 12 people total out of 34 people. That's quite a bit of nothing on profile compared to the other game that has 6... *edit* Now mind you that if according to the rules of this game, it is sorta illegal to switch and edit your profile the moment this game started.... so I have complied this just to imply that if any one of the 12 changes their profile, they will and can be automatically marked suspicious.... + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 12:52 no_re wrote: Well hi everyone, my first mafia game, not entirely sure how it works so bare with me if Im doing it wrong, however relating to the "clues" posted everyday here is what I got from the above entry. My first thought when dissecting the post was this rather obvious quote: A quick attack? Well with a player named QuickStriker in the game this looks like a kind of obvious clue. Also he was the first to respond to the first Sheriff Candidacy anouncement of Fulgrim, drawing attention to himself being "amused" by Fulgrim's "I'm not a mafia" comment. This intruiged me. Secondly the death of vx70GTOJudgexv: The only name with a reference to flowers would be d3_crescentia, Crescentia being Also in d3_crescentia's profile the quote is "once, not long ago, there was a moon here", and the murders being committed at night, when the moon is up? Yea I think this connection is a little thin, but I'm thinking out loud here. p.s. am i doin it rite? Obviously you should read all the posts as they occur, but if your lazy you can look at these spoilers... and also On January 21 2010 09:44 SagaZ wrote: I like your campain Iaaan, very organised. But i would like to hear who do you plan on linching on the first day if you're elected as a mayor. As of right now, if I get elected I plan to lynch the least active person, unless there is a solid reason for lynching someone else. | ||
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Iaaan
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They aren't in order tho, and I might have missed a few points, but still, good to get them in one place i think o: | ||
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On January 21 2010 10:00 ShoCkeyy wrote: This is why I have voted for you. I like that you're already trying to help us newcomers and win the game. If you were to be a mafia, you wouldn't be doing this. Back to lynching XeliN Notice he hasn't posted since I called him out! If he were a Mafia, he would want to get townies on his side, as not to get lynched. There is what, a 1/5 chance for any person to be Mafia? There are no ground to rule anyone out yet. Everyone should be aware of accusations of peoples roles and the meaning behind them, weather the poster has a good basis behind their judgment, or if they have another purpose for posting, to stir townies up and set them against each other, or any other reason. | ||
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Iaaan
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The other game had a lil discussion about instantly lynching the mayor once they are elected. I don't think its the most fun thing to do, and it would suck for the mayor, and if they have a special role like DT, having them protected would be worth a lot. It would take the risk of putting the Mafia in a position of power however, but I think it would be better to wait until we see how the mayor acts. I just thought I would throw that out there for discussion, cause it was interesting to read about in the other thread. | ||
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Iaaan
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But I do agree that there will be Mafia in both the frequent and non frequent posters, if someone is excited to play this game, they would probably be active whatever role they get. If someone signs up, then just forgets about it, or like doesn't come on TL for whatever reason, then they would be inactive regardless of their role. But again, with no real reliable indications to peoples roles so far, I think its better to lynch someone who is inactive rather than someone who is active, just because they are more fun, thus why I plan to do that if I get the position of mayor. | ||
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On January 22 2010 07:29 decafchicken wrote: edit: and as people analyze who votes for who, we should also be watching at who is abstaining which is equally important. Of course its a factor to consider, but what do you think abstaining says about someone? | ||
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On January 20 2010 20:51 RoyW wrote: Based on his contribution so far, I'm going to second XeliN in his bid for nomination. It's important that we have someone active in the thread as mayor or sherrif, and also good to have someone providing reasoning behind thier decisions, whether they be good or bad. because of that post, pretty early on, and that's all he has really said. lol | ||
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Iaaan
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It probably looks a little suspicious, but I'll just say that my two goals are not to have a mafia be mayor, and possibly become mayor myself. Going to bed now, but I'll be interested to see how this turns out (: | ||
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Iaaan
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I think the people we should think about lynching are Me, Xelin, Fulgrim, tree.hugger and Crescentia, because I'm pretty sure the Mafia would at least try to get someone elected. I like the Idea of the DTs making an inner circle. And last think I can think of right now, If either the mayor/sheriff are DTs, they could tell us, because they can't be killed by the Mafia right? we have to lynch them. for any other role they could just lie (if they were the Mafia), but its not hard to prove your a DT to the public if you have protection. | ||
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On January 23 2010 08:47 SagaZ wrote: About some guys under heavy suspicion like QS or Xelin, you are prime targets for the mafia I think, so every aditional night that you survive will make you exponentially more suspect. Not pointing anybody yet but it is a fact. I strongly disagree with this, anyone under suspicion (assuming they aren't actually Mafia) should be the last person they want to kill: why kill someone if the town will lynch them for you? A better idea for them would be to kill people that would throw suspicion on someone else, rather than taking the suspicion away. | ||
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So maybe it wasn't a good idea  But if our mayor/sheriff is a DT, then its still good. I'm sure that a Mafia and a DT could have the same view on getting one of the electoral roles, the protection would be great, just the side it helps changes o: | ||
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Iaaan
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But i withhold my judgement about who they are for now. | ||
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And nice choices of killings, Mafia, people who are playing/reading/analyzing, but not making alot of posts. Keeps things active, but kills smart people o: getting vigilantes was probably just luck. | ||
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Iaaan
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That sounds like some sort of Magic, maybe suggesting Magic.Man. I dunno tho, I only spent like 2 minutes on these posts, and haven't really looked at any players profiles/names at all. | ||
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Iaaan
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The 'Drawing something Technical" bit could also refer to anime, as fishball mentioned a few times, or maybe some sort of artist/architect profession. It might also make sense if there are the same number of clues in both days. maybe not tho o: | ||
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Iaaan
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fulgrim - 3 tree.hugger itspaul decafchicken d3_cresentia - 5 Fishball Dozko softer i10f johnnyspazz It could mean nothing, but the Mafia could have killed these people (itspaul and i10f) to show that it wasn't the Mafia voting for Cresentia/fulgrim, when they really were. But that said, The mafia would have been aiming to get someone in the position of mayor, so looking at the votes for tree.hugger: tree.hugger - 3 d3_cresentia ~opz~ no_re This is who everyone thought would win, as he had 4 votes before i changed mine. I changed my vote to try to screw things up because like I said, I think the Mafia would have wanted the Mayor position the most, and the Mafia thought tree.hugger would have won (which he did) since he was in the lead. Any more votes for him would have caused a tie for sheriff, and at that point in the game, we didn't know what would have happened in a tie. Again with wanting the position of mayor, the Mafia could have voted for Cresentia in order to put them ahead of their candidate. So all that said, at this point the people I suspect the most are Softer and Johnnyspazz for bumping up cresentias votes towards the end, ~Opz~ for voting free tree.hugger, tree.hugger for being mayor (again because the mafia would want this position, and the mafia should have thought tree.hugger would win), and Quickstriker for the clues (which Fishball outlined, and I also think the line "Drawing something technical" points to his profile.) | ||
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and also the people who abstained: abstain - 6 jonoman92 quickstriker shindigs Xelin jadefist Velkanknight The reason the Mafia would abstain is because since cresentia was at 5, and tree.hugger at 4, and the other people were at 2/3, so they didn't need any more votes. The reason a townie would abstain is because they just don't know who to vote for. And incase someone asks: Iaaan, if you thought tree.hugger was mafia, why didn't you bump someone elses vote up to 4 instead of causing a tie? Its because then, by my own logic, I would consider myself to be Mafia, cause going right at the end and choosing exactly who I want to be mayor, the position that is best for the Mafia to have would again, by my own logic, make people think I was Mafia. | ||
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And you guys should all read my posts, I think I made some good points that you should all read, consider, then take apart any flaws in my logic, or say if you think its reasonable. I am going to vote to lynch Johnnyspazz for the time being, since he was the last person to vote for Cresentia. But to you specifically Johnnyspazz, I ask you not to get angry at me for this, but if I'm wrong, prove to me that I am. | ||
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On January 24 2010 09:57 dozko wrote: My analysis of the day 2 clues. The bold ones are the ones I think are the most significant. 1) Quickstriker + Show Spoiler + - The figure may refer to the chess piece in the picture of his profile, as in a chess figurine. - "Object in his hands" although the piece is not "long", it is being held in the hands of the character - Note how the guy in his picture is slightly tilted to one side and it could be said he is "looking over his shoulder". Also those large expressive , jap art eyes can easily be linked to the "gaze", "eyes gazing" 2) iplaythings+ Show Spoiler + - The murdered were playing a "late night game" 3) drinking + Show Spoiler + - Note he joined TL on the 31 of December. I would classify this as a pretty memorable night. 4) softer + Show Spoiler + - In his profile quote: "Visualize success, but dont believe your eyes. I think this matches up really well with the quote from the narration "They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong." 5) no_re + Show Spoiler + - They played a bowling game, but it was their last one since they got pwnt by the killers and therefore will never be able to regame. 6) shockeyy + Show Spoiler + - Look at his profile pic. He's got the red eye effect in the photo, which makes his eyes look very expressive due to the black background. I believe this could be a reference to the "hypnotized" gaze in the narration, as his eyes look very menacing and hypnosis is usually done with a strong eye contact. I've said before that I think clues should just be used to confirm other suspicions, not be the suspicion itself. But that said, I dont think any of these are significant/fit, except maybe the Shockeyy one and MAYBE just MAYBE the softer/quickstriker ones. but probably not. | ||
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Iaaan
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On January 25 2010 02:20 d3_crescentia wrote: Problem: References to 'quick' are as vague as ever, since we don't know which mafia member could be attacking. The clues will have to be MORE telling than simply adjectives. Conjecture: None of the killers from last night were the same from the night before. I agreed with the first statement at first, but looking back, the adjective quick is used several times in both day1/2 posts. Maybe its still nothing, but I'm at least considering it now. But if this second statement is correct, then looking at the use of the word quick is invalid. But I don't think its necessarily right. I think at this point, I think we shouldn't lynch Quickstriker, but definitely don't forget about him. | ||
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on page 51 of the other game, they are pretty epic in proving innocence. | ||
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And I think that is actually a pretty good connection to Jonoman92, and also RoyW maybe. Both of them have been mostly lurking, but still voting, and I think that RoyW is either dumb, or he's just been coming in the thread with accusations to make people angry at each other. and I think anyone who does that is bad for the town. | ||
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Iaaan
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On January 25 2010 11:38 Jonoman92 wrote: I don't see why that behavior would lead you to believe he is a townie any more than mafia. I think that people who accuse or are rude look like mafia to some people, simply because they don't like them, and for a townie, mafia is associated with badness and rude/angry people are associated with badness, and thus mafia. Of course its irrational, but i think thats why a few people are suspicious of Xelin, and thus the reason for my post. | ||
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Iaaan
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I agree with Cresentia about RoyW and Jonoman92 being possibilities, but If I vote for them at this point, my vote would be wasted since there would still only be 2 votes. | ||
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Softer was not my first choice of who to kill, but at the moment I thought he was more likely then quickstriker, Xelin, or johnnyspazz | ||
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It is not worth it right now to lynch tree.hugger without any evidence, and I don't think that choosing softer alone is good evidence. While he benefits mafia if he is a mafia, the power of 3 votes benefits us as well. If we lynch him, it is like lynching three townies, so it is not a good choice to make at the moment. | ||
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Iaaan
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I also think that the mafia would want to put at least one person up to be elected, but at this point I don't know who, and while I'm pretty sure the mafia will have slipped someone into the election, there is always the possibility that they didn't. If you, or anyone can make a strong case against one of the candidates, great. But if you simply want to lynch them because they are candidates, then I think there are other people that are more likely mafia. | ||
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The inactivity of alot of people really sucked, but it was fun to start getting into mafia. | ||
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