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BloodyC0bblers's Mafia XVI

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 19 2010 14:47 GMT
#33
Fulgrim reporting in
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 19 2010 19:17 GMT
#37
Hey guys, I just wanted to get an idea of how the game is going to turn out. This is my first time doing this, how many other people are new to this too? Do we have a majority of new players?

For all new peoples I found reading through an old game really helpful:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=103738
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 19 2010 23:22 GMT
#59
Start it at 8 for us poor EST users
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 20 2010 02:07 GMT
#68
Now that the game's officially started, I will announce my candidacy for Sheriff. This IS my first game, however I think most of us are pretty new here, so I think we need someone who is active and somewhat experienced in how the game works. (and obviously not mafia) I've read over a couple of the older games, so ELECT ME!
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 20 2010 02:15 GMT
#70
Lol yes it was a quick announcement, I've had nothing to do for the last couple of hours but read up on old mafia games. I thought it was best to start campaigning early early if noone else was going to step up. I don't have any "platform" that I'm running on, because obviously this is my first time doing this. If you want me to sound more like a proper politician..... I will listen to everyone's ideas and try to guide this town down the golden road of prosperity, through the valley of peace and productivity, and over the mountains of joy.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 20 2010 02:18 GMT
#71
Also I thought that the "day 1" ended at 12 tonight.....
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 20 2010 03:45 GMT
#78
Striker could you post the link of the thread where someone compiled a list of possible leads based on clues? Also in my pregame "reading" I found that in this game http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=103738 the people elected a mafia mayor, and it turned out pretty badly for them (although the town did end up winning). So this kind of thing DOES happen
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 00:41 GMT
#188
Hey guys I hate not being able to check the thread during the day..... I was thinking about what our plan was to try and win this thing because currently (I haven't had time to read all of the posts yet) we seem to be focused on WHO we are electing. We also need to think about who we want our DT's to role check (assuming they check the thread often enough) and how they can communicate any information they get without giving away their role. The whole thing kind of gives me a headache... ANYONE could claim to be a DT and so it would be hard to tell whether they were really a DT or just trying to screw us over. Ideas anyone?
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 01:26 GMT
#201
Ok so first things first, anyone that is blue make sure that you use your actions on the first night! It would be a real waste if our DT's weren't detecting anyone, and our medics weren't protecting anyone.

Secondly, as Ian has pointed out that there are a large number of mafia (1/5 people?) in this game, so there are likely mafia among the frequent posters and non-frequent, although losing a more active townie would be a bigger blow then losing someone who just lurks, and rarely checks the thread. (possible bigger reward for taking out active mafia?) So if I'm elected I'm not sure yet who I will lynch, but I'm going to go back and read through most of the posts again, and I may get a clue

Thirdly, I doubt that there are any clues in the starting message, in the previous game I read there didn't seem to be any, I would look for clues after the first mafia kill tonight, and what people are posting.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 01:46 GMT
#211
Ok this is kind of sad, I read the last few pages that I missed and it seemed like the same 4 people were posting for like the whole day.... Where is everyone else? (this could cause major problems, imagine if half of our game was modkilled...) Quick, d3 and tree, you guys have all been posting a ton, and I'm having trouble deciding who to vote for, have you guys all played before?
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 01:55 GMT
#215
On January 21 2010 10:48 QuickStriker wrote:
I just took a look at the other mafia game and their last post seems reasonable. I'm pretty sure it can happen here and can be the same case so I'll just quote it away:

Show nested quote +
On January 21 2010 10:45 citi.zen wrote:
Let me throw this out there: we all agree an elected position benefits the mob, if they can get it. Also, the mob is organized and know each other, so they are likely to pre-determine who will run from their camp.

So my conjecture is this: one and only one of the candidates is a mobster.


If we take this last post as true, and the mafia is well organized, then we can assume that the mafia candidate is probably not xelin or man.magic, seeing as they have 0 votes and haven't seemed to post alot.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 01:56 GMT
#217
Scratch xelin off the, hasn't posted alot yet, he just posted that wall of text
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 02:11 GMT
#229
Dark Templar = Detective imo

So our current situation (thanks to Quickstriker for the list)
Fulgrim - 2
d3_crescentia - 1
QuickStriker - 1
tree.hugger - 1
Xelin - 0
Man.magic - 0

Abstain votes: 1

Total Votes so far: 6

6 candidates, but only 6 votes so far. I think that we can assume great changes in the list as more people start reading the thread + when the mafia decide who to vote for. We need 28 more votes in 24 more hours. I think the only way to mitigate some of the damage caused by a mafia member getting elected is to pick people who will be open with the townsfolk about what and why they are doing things. (also being a puppet of the town would be nice) Although a mafia member could promise this and then do something completely different when getting elected, so I guess there is nothing we can do to ensure a 100% mafia free gov.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 02:18 GMT
#231
On January 21 2010 11:14 Iaaan wrote:
you forgot me to ):


UPDATED LIST WITH MORE IAAAN

Fulgrim - 2
d3_crescentia - 1
QuickStriker - 1
tree.hugger - 1
Xelin - 0
Man.magic - 0
Iaaan - 0

Abstain votes: 1

Total Votes so far: 6
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 02:44 GMT
#236
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 21 2010 11:22 QuickStriker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2010 11:10 XeliN wrote:
That is an interesting question Quickstriker, The reasons i consider you suspicious are mainly due to the nature of your posting, although i certianly think the "Quick attack" potential clue that no_re highlighted oh so long ago is both plausible and telling.

In that hypothesis i feel i would have achieved something as it would lend itself very well to helping me evaluate other players who would be inextricably linked (in my mind) with the outcome if you turned out to be non-mafia. I do however feel out of everyone so far that you are the most obviously Mafia and if I am wrong i would have to do alot of inner thinking and possibly some meditation.

It's nothing personal btw so please don't take it as such this is just honestly my opinion on the matter as of this moment.

Alright, thanks your answer. Now allow me to share some input on some of the possibility of the aftermath if your hypothesis tend to be false. (Also, this is in no way to be offensive, however as my personality and character calls for it, I feel the need to self-assert myself with possibilities and reasons of my own. I did not do this in the past which caused the errors of my ways.)

Now my answer is, should the case where you happen to lynch the wrong person and get someone who is a non-mafia, a simple townie or worse, an important character among the townie, a high possibility can happen. People will start to doubt you, the townies will question your methods, there will be a share chance that you might be next to be lynched/voted out. Now, if you are the mafia and this was intentional (since mafia knows who other maifas are and this can be a grand scheme), it is a very unwise decision to pull in such a way. Because you got it wrong, and even with fellow mafias around you, the chances of survival can be lower than before the incident.

Now, if you aren't the mafia and you have voted incorrectly, there is still the greater cause of trouble, far more so than being the mafia itself. Not only the innocent regular townies will doubt you, but the maifas will support the townies, blend in, and support from mafia will come to go against you. A common cause will happen, the mafia using this confusion, taking to this advantage and try to get rid of you using the day vote power rather than their regular killing power at night, because it's easier to kill during day due to having to kill bodyguards first than mayor for nighttime. That is my simplified answer.

Finally, I like to note this to everyone, especially mafias out there of what I have just done. By stating exactly of the possibility of these events even when I'm voted out, the chances of this happening is still possible. However, hopefully by announcing the actual possible scheme to come, I have lower or reduced the chances of this happening at least by a tiny bit because I already laid out the whole possible plan ahead of the mafia. Which means the mafia have to find another method or smarten themselves up in order to get rid of the mayor. Have that for food for thought mafia!


Omg this is the same as the previous posts, and its blowing my mind... EITHER
A. Quick is mafia
B. Xelin is mafia
C. Quick and Xelin are mafia
D. Quick and Xelin are not mafia
E. Iaaan is mafia for suggesting everyone watch day9 50

I think we need some new discussion so we can stop fighting among ourselves (or fighting with mafia...) I have a question, when a DT rolechecks someone do they get to see their EXACT ROLE, eg. medic, or just there color eg. blue.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 04:06 GMT
#261
If I'm elected, I will obviously take into consideration any posts in this thread, however I have not found conclusively that any of these people that have posted so far are mafia. (and I think it would hurt alot more to lose some of the more active townies) I think I would kill someone who has barely posted/contributed to discussion (someone who may be modkilled anyways, so chances are the first kill will be a townie 4/5 chance because of the ratio of townspeople to mafia, but we will have lost little in terms of active members)
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 04:22 GMT
#265
I'm sorry to disappoint you Xelin, but I don't think that it would be a good idea to kill one of the three most active people in the thread. There has been LITTLE TO NO conclusive evidence to convict anyone yet, I want to be more cautious instead of just chopping heads off as soon as I take office. Maybe after the first night, where we get some more clues to look over, PLUS when DT's get to make their rolechecks, then I will feel like we can start killing some people off. Also imagine taking office and killing QS for example, and finding that he is actually green? That's going to make it look like you are red, and you might be lynched yourself.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 21:31 GMT
#320
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 22 2010 02:06 dozko wrote:
Xelin, I did not quote all of your posts since that post I made was getting enormous. I think people are not too lazy to go a few pages back and read what you have written, so I dont see how you use this as a basis against my argument?

In any case I have already put my reasoning up, because thats what I think. People are free to form their own opinion and seeing as how you ignored most of my points and misread the others I do not feel the need to return to that thread of argument.

On another more pressing note i put my vote in the other thread for d3_crescentia for mayor. I will now post my reasoning for doing so here.

The way I see it there are three main candidates - Fulgrim, tree.hugger and d3_crescentia. I did not vote for Fulgrim, although i tend to agree with a post he made on Quickstriker and Xelin before my analysis. He is the most popular candidate although he has listed the least number of arguments to support his campaign. This I find slightly suspicious.

tree.hugger I find is a bit of an enigma right now, since he has only made a few long posts and attempted to impersonate a "sage of wisdom" in all of them. I have not yet formed an opinion of him but I am suspicious when people try to tell me how and what I should look out for.

I voted for d3_crescentia because 1) He has made good analysis of the narration and I do not believe that any mafia would go in such details like separating prose from poetry etc. 2) He has a very neutral style of posting, i.e. he does not jump on bandwagons too quickly, and is taking the input of other posters very seriously, even when It is not completely in tune with his own. These I feel are good attributes for a mayor to have and he is the only candidate to actually sort of back up the attributes he claimed he possessed in his campaign with his subsequent posts. 3) He is one of the most active posters, and this will be good for us if he can continue in such fashion when we have more information.



Dozko brings up a few good points about the candidates. I find your analysis of tree.hugger interesting because thats exactly how I see you, you came out of nowhere with several fat posts chalked full of analysis, which made me suspicious at first. Although it seems as though this is the style of some players (tree.hugger and others). I think that people are too caught up on Xelin's and Quickstrikers arguments as they could both be mafia trying to distract us and polarize the town, or neither could be mafia and just both paranoid. Either way I feel too much of the discussion has been focused on that.

Also I'm glad to see more people becoming active, which is great. However I am still going to follow through on my plan if you elect me and kill one of the least active people, so get posting. (No voting for me will not guarantee that you will not be lynched if you haven't posted anything at all yet)
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 21 2010 22:29 GMT
#325
On January 22 2010 07:01 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 22 2010 02:06 dozko wrote:
The way I see it there are three main candidates - Fulgrim, tree.hugger and d3_crescentia. I did not vote for Fulgrim, although i tend to agree with a post he made on Quickstriker and Xelin before my analysis. He is the most popular candidate although he has listed the least number of arguments to support his campaign. This I find slightly suspicious.



Show nested quote +
On January 22 2010 00:30 ShoCkeyy wrote:
The other 25% go to those who are quietly coming in that have watched us argue about who to lynch first. I feel like they watched us bicker to see and now that we have some what of an idea who we're going to lynch first. Now the mafia come in to back them up so we an lynch a townie. Which brings me to my other conclusion. Decafchicken I'm watching you.


Show nested quote +
On January 22 2010 06:54 decafchicken wrote:
I vote for fulgrim


VERY SUSPICIOUS.


While I don't exactly agree with the accusation along with this post, I agree we should be watching this election closely because the results will be very telling to weed out potential mafia. Especially towards the end if there is a mass shift in who everyone is voting for. The mafia have 7 votes, which they will probably use to get who they want in office.

I think that dozko forgot to mention in his list of candidates Iaaan, who has brought up some good points so far. (He is the person I'm considering voting for) I think that before people vote they should make sure they have read some of his posts. (and every candidates)
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 22 2010 03:25 GMT
#339
Holy crap its close, when does voting end?

Current votes:

tree.hugger - 4
Fulgrim - 3
d3_crescentia - 3
Ian - 3
XeliN - 2

Abstain: 8

Total: 23
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 22 2010 04:29 GMT
#351
Ugh, hate to go to bed before the election is decided =/

Whoever is elected mayor, use your lynch wisely, and on the off-chance I am, I will use my lynch on Lunaticman, who has been inactive since we started, so we won't be losing much.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 23 2010 00:36 GMT
#449
Hey guys, haven't been able to check the thread in like a day T_T . I see that d3 and tree.hugger won, (darn you tree.hugger we tied) but looking to see that tree lynched my first choice of lynch I doubt that he is mafia. (although it is a shame that he was a DT) Congrats to winners, now I have 6 pages to read.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 24 2010 03:58 GMT
#524
Day 2
The night was a memorable one. It was a night of valiant struggle. The records show it began sometime after 1 am in the bowling alley. Toplexa, and i10f were out playing a late night game, to kill most of the night. The knew better to indulge their vices in liquor this night. The also knew better than to have their back to the doors. They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong. The heard screams coming from outside the building, and quickly drew their guns and moved slowly outside. When they emerged they witnessed itspaul charging a figure in the shadows who had some long object in his hands, one that quickly blocked itspauls clumsy attack and quickly counter attacked and killed the man.
toplexa drew his rifle to his shoulder and began to fire rounds at the figure, but was too late, the mafia was already gone. nodding to his partner, they both began to creep into the night, looking to catch the killer they had just seen. That was the mistake however. As they approached the town center, they noticed someone drawing something technical on one nearby store walls. Gazing over his shoulder, the man stopped, and quickly fired two shots and ran for cover. Toplexa went one way, and i10f went another. Unfortunately for Toplexa, he never made it into position. He was stopped partway by a man with a long blade. Raising his rifle to shoot the man, he watched almost hypnotically as the man performed some odd formations in the air with his blade. When the blade finished moving, toplexa dropped dead. His lifeless eyes gazing in the direction of his friend. Had he been able to see, he would have seen i10f lifeless eyes staring back at him.

I decided to write down my first impressions of the night 1 post before I read anyone else's so my ideas might be more original. Hopefully not many overlaps

Ok so it really sucks that the mafia got BOTH vigis, but I guess its better to have medics still in tact. After reading this I also went through and highlighted the things I thought were significant. Some of the things I could tie back, others I don't really know. There is ANOTHER reference to drinking, when it talks about liquor. This could indicate drinking, or Iplaythings who's signature talks about thirst and water.

Another more far-fetched connection are the words wrong, wrong and mistake which could point to JoxxOr who's signature is WScript.echo('You Fail');
(fail of course being the connection)

Both long object and the mafia guy drawing something technical stood out to me as being odd, but I couldn't see a connection to anything. I feel like alot of things in here were awkwardly worded but couldn't connect much to anyone else.

One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 24 2010 04:05 GMT
#525
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 24 2010 08:37 Iaaan wrote:
and just because I think it might be relevant, I will post some stuff about the voting.

fulgrim - 3
tree.hugger
itspaul
decafchicken

d3_cresentia - 5
Fishball
Dozko
softer
i10f
johnnyspazz

It could mean nothing, but the Mafia could have killed these people (itspaul and i10f) to show that it wasn't the Mafia voting for Cresentia/fulgrim, when they really were. But that said, The mafia would have been aiming to get someone in the position of mayor, so looking at the votes for tree.hugger:

tree.hugger - 3
d3_cresentia
~opz~
no_re

This is who everyone thought would win, as he had 4 votes before i changed mine. I changed my vote to try to screw things up because like I said, I think the Mafia would have wanted the Mayor position the most, and the Mafia thought tree.hugger would have won (which he did) since he was in the lead. Any more votes for him would have caused a tie for sheriff, and at that point in the game, we didn't know what would have happened in a tie. Again with wanting the position of mayor, the Mafia could have voted for Cresentia in order to put them ahead of their candidate.

So all that said, at this point the people I suspect the most are Softer and Johnnyspazz for bumping up cresentias votes towards the end, ~Opz~ for voting free tree.hugger, tree.hugger for being mayor (again because the mafia would want this position, and the mafia should have thought tree.hugger would win), and Quickstriker for the clues (which Fishball outlined, and I also think the line "Drawing something technical" points to his profile.)


I agree that its interesting to look at the three people who died. It would be hard for the mafia to have known that 2/3 of them were blue (although they might have suspected toplexa for replacing someone), and these people really didn't post much (toplexa was saying that he was going to post some analysis.) So in my opinion the cause of their deaths was one of three things, feel free to disagree, but I think these are the only scenarios

1) One or several of the three had accidentally contacted a mafia member through pm's and had revealed their role to them

2) The mafia did it to affect our perceptions of the day 1 election (who they voted for and why)

3) Mafia just chose three random people
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 24 2010 13:54 GMT
#531
Update-

Johnnyspazz - 3
Quickstriker - 3
Softer - 2

Double lynch votes - 4
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 24 2010 16:39 GMT
#534
I have this feeling that either tree.hugger or d3 are mafia. We obviously know that at least one of the candidates is mafia, and d3 seemed to pick up a couple of votes at the end.

Also Quickstriker was running for a short period of time and withdrew for some reason. From his posts I don't think he's mafia, but both day clues point to him... He has abstained on every vote so far which I find a bit suspicious.

Depending on what Quickstriker is, I think Xelin is the opposite... (though he seems more like mafia then Quick, has accused more people of being mafia)
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 24 2010 17:22 GMT
#541
Ok now I understand, I hadn't seen you actually starting to campaign for office, but I assumed I had just missed it because someone voted for you.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 24 2010 17:43 GMT
#542
So following d3's thoughts, I decided to try and look for the different mafia members

Day 1
+ Show Spoiler +
One night in a town of Liquiville, there came a strange event. An event of history and would lead many people to bewilderment. The sheriff Ace however was on the case. Journeying to the docks by the beach, he answered the cries of a persons shriek. What he found however, was a trail of blood. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide. Rushing to the persons aid, he turned the body and knew it was grave. A quick check of the pulse, and he knew it was done, L would fail to see the coming sun. MAFIA 1 Picking up the body, he turned to make his way back to town, and failed to see the figure step behind him. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. His mind raced towards the possibilities of what happened, and he reached for his gun. But before he could begin, the figure drew overtop of him and the sheriff was done.
Across town in his mayoral office, vx70GTOJudgexv sat at his desk. He was busy signing new laws for the town when he heard a crash outside his door. Getting up and exiting into the hall, he began to search for the sound. As he explored the nearby rooms he moved back to the hall and made his way back towards his office. It was then that he saw something on the ground by the window at the end of the hall. MAFIA 2 Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. The mayor vx70GTOJudgexv cried out, and crumpled dead to the floor.
When the town awoke from their slumber, they found the three bodies lying in the town square. Knowing that they were not safe, they began to hold an electoral race. It was here that the town began to be reshaped.


Day 2
+ Show Spoiler +
The night was a memorable one. It was a night of valiant struggle. The records show it began sometime after 1 am in the bowling alley. Toplexa, and i10f were out playing a late night game, to kill most of the night. The knew better to indulge their vices in liquor this night. The also knew better than to have their back to the doors. They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong. The heard screams coming from outside the building, and quickly drew their guns and moved slowly outside. MAFIA 3 When they emerged they witnessed itspaul charging a figure in the shadows who had some long object in his hands, one that quickly blocked itspauls clumsy attack and quickly counter attacked and killed the man.
toplexa drew his rifle to his shoulder and began to fire rounds at the figure, but was too late, the mafia was already gone. nodding to his partner, they both began to creep into the night, looking to catch the killer they had just seen. That was the mistake however. MAFIA 4 As they approached the town center, they noticed someone drawing something technical on one nearby store walls. Gazing over his shoulder, the man stopped, and quickly fired two shots and ran for cover. Toplexa went one way, and i10f went another. Unfortunately for Toplexa, he never made it into position.MAFIA 5 He was stopped partway by a man with a long blade. Raising his rifle to shoot the man, he watched almost hypnotically as the man performed some odd formations in the air with his blade. When the blade finished moving, toplexa dropped dead. His lifeless eyes gazing in the direction of his friend. Had he been able to see, he would have seen i10f lifeless eyes staring back at him.


Descriptions:
Mafia 1: Quick attack, Figure "drew overtop him"
We don't have alot of description about this guy besides the Quick attack (if this means anything)

Mafia 2: Broken Flower Vase, "rush of air", something sink into his shoulder
There seems to be alot more clues about this guy, but besides d3, we haven't really connected him to anyone else

Mafia 3: "Long object", "figure in the shadows", "quickly blocked", "quickly countered",
This mafia didn't actually kill either of them which could be a clue, he could also be the same as Mafia 1 who had a "quick attack" (which may indicate quickstriker) He could also be the same as mafia 2 because both of their weapons are mentioned but never said exactly what they are.

Mafia 4: "drawing something technical", "fired two shots" "ran for cover"
There are some clues about this mafia, but we have no clue what drawing something technical means, AGAIN this mafia didn't kill any of them

Mafia 5: Long blade, "hypnotically", "odd formations in the air"
This guy could potentially also be mafia 2 because of the mention of air again, but I think he is a new mafia
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 25 2010 21:59 GMT
#594
Ugh ok so voting is closed, I posted seconds after BC closed the thread....

johnnyspazz - 1 (JadeFist ) 2 if you count my late vote =P

softer - 7 (dozko, johnnyspazz, laaan, d3_crescentia, tree.hugger*3)

QuickStriker - 4 (xelin, sidesprang, no_re, royw)

VelkanKnight - 1 (Jonoman92)

Xelin - 3 (shockeyy, haster27, ~OpZ~)

Double Lynch - 14/30
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 25 2010 22:04 GMT
#596
Well hopefully BC will still count my 2 second late post, so we do get double lynch
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 25 2010 22:22 GMT
#599
Yes! so he did count my vote. Clutch vote if I ever saw one. Unfortunately looks like we lynched our second townie. These are the guys who voted for softer: dozko, johnnyspazz, laaan, d3_crescentia, tree.hugger*3. Both elected officials....
It looks like quickstriker abstained for a 3rd time....
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 27 2010 02:49 GMT
#636
Well doing II means that we will lynch either me or Iaaan because we don't have enough evidence to convict either elected officials. (Imagine lynching d3 and him turning up green XP) If enough people in the town are behind this then I guess one of us will have to die, which is a shame because I really don't think Iaaan is mafia.

On the other hand we could start lynching "Active" people, but I have a hunch that there are few active posting mafia this game, most of them are probably lurking and just popping in to say something/accuse another player. I am suspicious of Xelin being mafia (although there aren't really any clues to support this, just by behavior) And of d3 because of the "pot of flowers", and some of his votes. I have no idea why Quickstriker abstained all three votes, and that plus the "quick" clues make me suspicious of him as well.

Perhaps people could start debating WHO specifically they want lynched tomorrow.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 27 2010 21:35 GMT
#667
On January 28 2010 02:39 d3_crescentia wrote:
Another water/sea related clue and two men in black.

2AM seems like a pretty substantial clue as well...

Blargh; gonna come back to this later.



I remembered something else being 2 in a previous post, in the day two post the time is 1 am, so I'm not sure if there is a connection except for it always being in the early morning, or just numbers. Also in the day 2 post:
quickly fired two shots and ran for cover.


Agh I was almost positive Xelin was mafia.... Sorry Xelin! So here we are with a double lynch and little idea with what to do with it. I'm going to look back and look at all of Xelin's (Iaaan's and fishball's too) and see what I can find, they were pretty active so we may be able to find clues from there.

Also I found another "stretch" clue that could possibly incriminate haster27, there is alot of references to water in the clues, day 1 and 3 the killings took place near the water. In haster's picture there is a picture of Florida with alot of water around it.....

I also see the connection to Jadefist in the last killing, the mafia had something on his hand.

Lets hope that our medics and DT's aren't all inactive......
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 27 2010 21:36 GMT
#668
wow sorry thats not florida..... That's what I get for getting no sleep yesterday...
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 27 2010 22:18 GMT
#672
On January 28 2010 06:59 tree.hugger wrote:

Show nested quote +
On January 28 2010 06:36 Fulgrim wrote:
wow sorry thats not florida..... That's what I get for getting no sleep yesterday...


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...

***


I actually have been looking at Haster's picture since the first day with the clue about water, but I didn't want to post it until anything more came up. I thought it was Florida until I posted lol
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 28 2010 22:47 GMT
#697
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 28 2010 12:14 dozko wrote:
So I went through all of the clues and thought through most of the things that happened. I now think I have a solid guess as to who the reds are:

Before I present you my conclusions, take a look for your reference at the list of possible suspects: + Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


The people I have crossed out in red are those which are in danger of being modkilled. In my opinion we should not waste our time and lynches on these since it is highly likely that BC will take them out and I believe that the mafia are in fact among the active players.

Okay so these are the people we're considering and a quick check shows us that they amount to 18 (17 excluding myself) players. Given that 7 mafia are left, then the probability of getting a lynch wrong is very favorable. Therefore I insist that we do not hesitate to vote for people who we think fit the clues, simply because they have played a big part in the thread, have a good posting style or other such details.

Now on to my prime suspects for lynching.

Lets get the obvious out of the way first: iloveKT has the obvious sound reference due to the sound waves in his profile. VelkanKnight has the obvious knightly association with swords. I do not think that our lynches are worth it for these guys because a) the clues are far too obvious and b) they have not been active at all so in my opinion we've got bigger fish to fry first.

QuickStriker+ Show Spoiler +
First lets establish a connection between the player and the concept and then see how the concept/mold fits the clues. A google search of shriek gives us references to a comic villain, to quoting wiki: “Agony, is a fictional character and a supervillain from the Spider-Man comic books. She is one of six symbiote spawns of Venom. She is predominantly purple.”

First connection - look at his profile picture, there's no doubt the guy has an aura of evil badass around him. Further the sleeve is purple in the picture, the scarf is light purple and the gloves have a purplish tint.

Second connection - the fictional character is listed as having "Superhuman strength, speed, agility and endurance“. This fits neatly with the ferociousness of the last day 3 kills and their speed as evidenced by the looking at the watch.

Third connection - the second killing is done by "ripped the blade upwards cutting the now dead townie in half from the chest up". Again the supernatural strength needed to do this matches as above. Even more strongly however I find the resemblance between the killing blow and the hand motion of the guy in QS's profile. To me it looks like the picture is taken when the guy is doing the exact same forceful movement - starting from the chest and going up.

PS. Not related to the above but the constant refusal to vote, by excuses of "not having enough information, or being too busy" given the multitude of his posts would have warranted a lynch on its own if we were playing a longer game and had whittled the mafia down initially.

Therefore I will place my first vote to lynch QuickStriker


Jonoman92+ Show Spoiler +
Again lets start with the overlying theme of drawings / technical drawings / formations.

This is written in such a way by BC that I feel that it MUST be a clue. Therefore looking at the profiles of all the suspects the only two which match are VelkanKnight - for his Lolicon reference in the quote, which is basically a type of cartoon drawings. The other match, which has already been mentioned is Jonoman92 - arcology. These are principles which are aimed at designing massive structures etc. Now while both can be classified as drawings only the latter can be considered technical, and since these building are predominantly hypothetical they can also be considered as strange formations - e.g. look at the picture on the wiki page for arcology - its basically a building formed by a load of triangles, this is something i definately relate to strange formations.

I am also curious as to why this clue was overlooked initially. It is of appropriate difficulty and matches extremely well.


Okay so to conclude my conjecture is that I - QuickStriker is mafia and responsible for the day 3 second and third killings and II - Jonoman92 is also mafia and responsible for the last day 2 kill. I consider these my prime suspects and will vote for them as per my reasons above.

Other suspicions: Fulgrim+ Show Spoiler +
The 40k warrior guy with a huge ass sword sewing death etc etc. I think that since we have nothing else that can match to the long object in the hands of one of the killers and since this looks out of place enough for it to be a clue i deem it significant. + in that same novel there is a guy called ferus manus whose "iron hands play a big role". Further people picked up on the branded hand poem and fisherman reference.


Shockeyy+ Show Spoiler +
I still stand by my day 2 analysis of him and the connection I made to the hypnosis related killing and the spooky red eyes on his profile pic. I suggest people give that another read, I think the hypnosis bit is definitely a clue and shockeyy is the only person it can strongly relate to.


Closing conclusions:

+ Show Spoiler +
- Remember how in the beginning of the game one of the reasons that motivated my choice to believe d3_crescentia is not mafia was his posting style etc etc. Well I now believe we have an even stronger proof of that. The people who voted for him in the election. Of the 5 total votes, 3 have been confirmed townies through death and since I am a townie as well (although sadly this will also have to be proven in death it seems) we have only 1 person voting for him, who has "unclear intent". Therefore I conclude that if the mafia ran someone for election they would've at least supported him with a decent number of members - therefore d3 cant be mafia. Of course that strategy is logical but if the mafia have not in fact put up an election candidate then this theory falls apart since it doesn't really give us any conclusions. Since I have trusted him from the beginning of the game I would look mighty retarded if he turned out red and the small number of "uncertain people" votes for him was due to the fact that the mob realized he would win anyway and thus didnt give full support to him.

- This leads to the conclusion that one of tree.hugger or fulgrim must be mafia if the reds have employed that strategy. I dont relate tree.hugger's profile pic to anything so if anyone has any ideas please share them. However his conservative posting style and attractive position of responsibility make him very suspicious.

- Therefore whatever the outcome I think that the next lynch should include at least one of the two


Also I am very interested as to why JadeFist, votes for me. I think some people are taking on the idea of "carrying out Xelin's legacy", which I think is clearly unfounded and such people may very well be the remaining mafia members since such a high profile kill (of a very active poster) will have the obvious repercussions of other players believing that the person was killed because of his suspicion. However this could very well be the mafia's attempt to muddy the waters.



For those of you who don't know Fulgrim from 40k: http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/wiki/Fulgrim

I agree that Fulgrim does have a sword, I think that that clue would fit Velkanknight better then me, as for the hand clue, its a bit far fetched, if Fulgrim had some sort of tatoo or something it might be a better match.

Personally I think that no_re is our biggest lead currently, and I think our clues about IloveKT and jadefist are pretty strong at the moment. I will probably be voting for one of them as well as no_re
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 28 2010 23:10 GMT
#699
On January 29 2010 08:04 Jonoman92 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 28 2010 12:44 dozko wrote:
On January 28 2010 12:41 ShoCkeyy wrote:
...


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 24 2010 09:57 dozko wrote:
My analysis of the day 2 clues. The bold ones are the ones I think are the most significant.

1) Quickstriker + Show Spoiler +
- The figure may refer to the chess piece in the picture of his profile, as in a chess figurine.

- "Object in his hands" although the piece is not "long", it is being held in the hands of the character

- Note how the guy in his picture is slightly tilted to one side and it could be said he is "looking over his shoulder". Also those large expressive , jap art eyes can easily be linked to the "gaze", "eyes gazing"


2) iplaythings+ Show Spoiler +
- The murdered were playing a "late night game"


3) drinking + Show Spoiler +
- Note he joined TL on the 31 of December. I would classify this as a pretty memorable night.


4) softer + Show Spoiler +
- In his profile quote: "Visualize success, but dont believe your eyes. I think this matches up really well with the quote from the narration "They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong."


5) no_re + Show Spoiler +
- They played a bowling game, but it was their last one since they got pwnt by the killers and therefore will never be able to regame.


6) shockeyy + Show Spoiler +
- Look at his profile pic. He's got the red eye effect in the photo, which makes his eyes look very expressive due to the black background. I believe this could be a reference to the "hypnotized" gaze in the narration, as his eyes look very menacing and hypnosis is usually done with a strong eye contact.


Out of the bolded ones I believe the clue towards drinking is the most believable, since it is not very obvious but it still is not too far fetched. However the clue towards softer is very strong since we have a match of a whole sentence.

Given that both these have had clue references in day 1 (i.e. the water for drinking and "tenderly" for softer) i currently believe that these two are the most likely to be mafia.

Therefore I will vote for softer to be lynched for now, unless i hear some convincing arguments in his defense, since he has not replied in his defense to my day1 post stating the "tenderness" clue and he generally is keeping a low profile, but people should keep an eye on drinking as well since his clue is very persuasive IMO.



dozko, let me first say thanks for doing such extensive analysis to give us all information to review and consider. The thing is you have a lot of leads and so far we're yet to catch a mafia member. I think that some of the leads must be correct but it is certainly hard to know which ones. We also don't exactly know what method BC is using to lay clues. I think that if we can get a mafia member on this turn we should continue along the same path but otherwise maybe we should put less emphasis on the clues and more on examining people's postng behaviors and trying to see if we can figure out motives from that.

With so many inactives it does present a problem though... I wish there was a way to check if people were viewing the thread even if they aren't posting because that would lead me to believe they are mafia rather than noobs who signed up for mafia and are dumb townies who aren't caring to participate.


I believe that we should trust clues more then anything else though, because Its the one thing to be sure about. A mafia member can easily say anything in posts to throw off suspicion, but the clues will always condemn someone (although so far for us it hasn't been the right person). After we get the first mafia it should be alot easier to get the rest by looking at posts by the person and voting record.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 29 2010 00:54 GMT
#711
On January 29 2010 09:45 no_re wrote:
I feel that laaan and Xelin were both killed by the mafia since they were getting a lot of things right.

Also in the PM's between Xelin and Iaaan, Iaaan only claimed to be a DT at first, and came clean to Xelin he was just a townie before he was mafia lynched.


So does that mean that you KNEW that Iaaan wasn't DT before he was killed?
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 29 2010 01:27 GMT
#718
On January 29 2010 10:22 no_re wrote:


Anyway if I get lynched here is my list of mafia

Most likely:

ShoCkey
Quickstriker
Jonnyspazz
Tree.Hugger

Possibly:

d3_crescentia
Dozko

and the 7th who I believe if he is possibly mafia, and if he is has played it very well:

Fulgrim

So by the time im dead it will probably be too late anyway since they got the two places of power and such a good start. Also kinda posting this for posterity so i can be like "booya, nothing but net" come the end of the game

ps. godfather - quickstriker


no_re this is pretty important to tell whether you are innocent or not. Did you know that Iaaan wasn't DT before he was killed????
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 29 2010 03:24 GMT
#725
Do you have a pm from Xelin or Iaaan saying that Iaaan wasn't DT? Otherwise I think we can assume that you thought that he was DT
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 29 2010 23:13 GMT
#765
Crap I thought voting was closed in a few hours not like 5 hours ago. Quickstriker was green, so we STILL haven't got any clues straight. Do we have ANY blues left??? Also I'm VERY suprised that no_re didn't get lynched. I thought we as a town decided that he was almost certainly mafia. People who DIDN'T vote for no_re maybe could explain themselves?
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 30 2010 16:57 GMT
#782
We need to lynch no_re tomorrow becaue he is our biggest lead at the moment, and at this point we can't afford to lose another townie. So my vote will be no_re and double lynch for the next day. I'm very suspicious of all the people who DIDN'T vote for no_re (dozko, d3_crescentia, OpZ, decafchicken, ShoCkeyy all did). d3 had some very conclusive evidence to no_re's alignment.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
January 30 2010 18:12 GMT
#787
On January 31 2010 02:03 dozko wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 31 2010 01:57 Fulgrim wrote:
We need to lynch no_re tomorrow becaue he is our biggest lead at the moment, and at this point we can't afford to lose another townie. So my vote will be no_re and double lynch for the next day. I'm very suspicious of all the people who DIDN'T vote for no_re (dozko, d3_crescentia, OpZ, decafchicken, ShoCkeyy all did). d3 had some very conclusive evidence to no_re's alignment.


Why didnt you vote for him? Tbh I think you're mob too just because of the warhammer 40k thing and because you didnt vote. In fact I still maintain the opinion its best to lynch jonoman first.


I missed the vote... I know its a bad excuse but I thought it ended later. I don't see how me not voting would make me mob though, more likely make me modkilled =P
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 01 2010 04:08 GMT
#811
Hello anyone there? Oh wait nevermind, our three most active posters just got killed. I think for reasons stated by d3 before we should lynch no_re, and also vote for a double lynch the next day. It ain't over till its over
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 01 2010 04:36 GMT
#812
Here is my insight of our current situation:
1) Our Mayor is town (game would be over if he wasn't)
a) This is the last day our mayor will live
2) We still have one DT left

The last DT should roleclaim to tree.hugger and pass on any information that he can give before we lose our only confirmed townie this game. We can start by lynching no_re, because he's pretty red, but we still need to know if there is other information out there. I think we should try and keep this thread alive during this day cycle if we want to have any chance of winning this thing.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 02 2010 03:00 GMT
#826
Little, because he has no sig or picture so it could only come from his name. I will search tomorrow morning, but tonight have too much work.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 03 2010 15:12 GMT
#846
GG guys, mafia won because of inactivity, had the blues been active this game would have turned out differently I think. Our mafia was really unorganized, we never actually heard anything from the inactive 7strife. I decided to run from the start to maybe throw off suspicion of me being mafia (mafia candidates might run later after they get organized?). We pm'd alot the first day, and then rarely pm'ed each other afterwards, so we were basically on our own. Most of the other mafia layed low, which I guess was an advantage for us because they were always out of the spotlight. Our plan was to elect me Sheriff, and Xelin mayor (who would lynch QS, cause alot of suspicion thrown on him, and maybe be lynched himself), though this weird 3 way tie thing happened, and the two people I was afraid of getting into office got into office.... As for clue analysis, many people were wrong in there suspicions of mafia toward the beginning, and whenever IloveKT's sound waves got brought up, I tried to post some different clues relating to other people to change the discussion, which mainly worked. I didn't get accused of being mafia until much later, although then it was still pretty much over for town. D3's last post was a real gift for the mafia, he gave pretty good evidence that no_re was mafia, so it was easy to jump on that bandwagon and move the town that way.

After Night 1 I was basically choosing all of the targets for our kills, sorry mafia I didn't see you guys being active so I took the initiative mainly. And sorry to those that I killed, nothing personal (except those who were accusing me of being mafia and got killed =P). I mainly chose to kill active people, because all we needed to do is make sure that the thread is dead and we win. I probably should have killed dozko sooner, because he had some really good analysis in his posts. When we killed Xelin, I was hoping that the town would split into two sides and QS and dozko would be lynched. Unfortunately while QS did end up getting lynched, the town hardly was split, and suspected the mafia had killed Xelin just to cause arguements. Killing Xelin and Iaaan who were involved in this situation with no_re was complete luck. Also killing both Vigi's on the first night was luck. (at the beginning I was really scared of medics, so we avoided the most popular targets)

I actually did accidently miss two votes, it wasn't some clever mafia ploy.

GG all, thanks BC for host, next time I'll hopefully be on the town's side.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-02-03 15:27:33
February 03 2010 15:12 GMT
#847
^ also I was entertained by tree.huggers vote for me for the election, saying that I was too noob to be mafia
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 03 2010 15:23 GMT
#848
On February 03 2010 15:19 Fishball wrote:
Everyone ignoring me (except for the mafia) was a great move.
Hell, people inclined to go after Xelin's list instead of the suspects I've posted before.

Overall, there is too much behavioral analysis, bad behavioral analysis.


Yeah fishball, alot of people with good analysis got ignored, which kind of sucked, and usually would get them killed by mafia.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 03 2010 18:06 GMT
#852
haha yeah sorry johnnyspazz, I was red. I tried really hard to act like a townie though all the time
One does not simply walk into mordor
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 03 2010 23:47 GMT
#858
On February 04 2010 08:04 d3_crescentia wrote:
Dammit, Fulgrim, I *knew* the mafia had some sort of weird back-Xelin plan. Though by the time I figured out no_re really was townie, I was already dead. I was really hoping someone would be able to see through his posts and tell that he was innocent after all.

It's just annoying because whenever we cast out an accusation I was hoping that they would come back and respond to it... but they never did and so my mind moved onto someone else. Funny how that happens.


Haha yeah, we thought that we could get Xelin elected, but somehow I ended up voting for Iaaan.... and the whole thing fell apart. Your right, nobody really responded to their accusers this game, and playing without most of the mafia posting, and without DT's, Vigi's, or medics was pretty difficult.
One does not simply walk into mordor
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