EPTIncognito's TL Mafia XVI
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flamewheel
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flamewheel
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On January 20 2010 14:22 DoctorHelvetica wrote: For the first I'd guess it's abenson/ghote since the fridge/apple clues actually have a concrete connection to the user. for mafia #2, I'm at a loss. I agree with DH here... Somewhat considering the fact that abenson was being very defensive (also first Mafia game for him, so... trolling maybe?) But since it's day 1 I suppose the gun shouldn't be jumped, and I agree with the need to elect the mayor. It really does scare me though that the mayor could be a mafia member. Unkillable until body guards are done... yeah... | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 21 2010 05:43 Zona wrote: I totally disagree about how powerful the sheriff is. The sheriff's power only works twice - if you randomly throw it out, your chance of disabling a useful power isn't that large, since power roles are a minority, and disabling a medic (who happens to guess/choose right) in my view is the biggest downside. I would also propose that incarcerating suspected mafia is as good/even better than incarcerating potential victims. But the mayor's triple vote power is dangerous, especially if we have a lot of people who don't vote, and as the game goes on and vote totals decline (and the mayor can't die to night kills, too). No lynching is usually a bad idea because whoever votes on the lynch grants information as the mafia usually need to work together at least a little to avoid being lynch victims. In the case of day 1, lynching gives information as to the mayor, and the mayor is a very powerful role in my view, I think the lynch should go through. But then again I'm more used to mafia games where mods don't give clues, so I'm uncertain whether the value of how people voted is greater, or clues. The newcomer thing can just simply be story, not clues. After all, story-wise the mafia have just arrived in town. Yeah it really does seem like the sheriff's power is somewhat... limited. I suppose it would get more powerful later on in the game when there are less people (making the guessing a bit easier), but it still seems like to me that the power is mostly situational, and won't be of much use until further on. However, mafia could manipulate the vote to get the mayor, since it's 1st/2nd place since we're not voting separately for the sheriff and mayor, so just merely looking at how the votes are spread is not enough--if we think the mafia is saving votes to pile onto the winner (sheriff) at the end but they really are trying to push a mafia member for mayor, we could end up severely owning ourselves. | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 21 2010 06:38 Bill Murray wrote: what if the mafia get mayor, and then purposefully lynch their own player? that would sure make a godfather as mayor look good/trustworthy to the town wouldn't it? Except we wouldn't know that it's the godfather who would be doing so. Also, since the godfather has the power to be whatever role he wants to be if rolechecked by a detective, this is made useless if he were mayor since neither the mayor nor sheriff can be rolechecked. Therefore I'd think that the mafia would actually be against putting the godfather in the mayoral/sheriff position and would opt instead to just put a normal mafia member in. So let's say a mafia member does get mayor. True, if he lynches his own member early it would remove a ton of suspicion from him/herself, and the killpower would not be decreased since 7 and 6 mafia members both round to three, so early on it would seem like a viable mindgaming strategy to go through with. However, later on in the game the mafia needs to fully abuse its killing power as quickly as possible. Since the game ends with a mafia win as soon as mafia outnumber townies (and there are quite a few townies/town-aligned people), the more mafia members that there still are would translate to faster kills. As the clues start piling up, both sides will be rushing to outdo the other and the 1/7 loss on the first day will start to feel more pertinent. | ||
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flamewheel
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.../ Lurking time. Hehe. | ||
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On January 21 2010 08:10 Jayme wrote: Very low activity and inactive are pretty much one in the same. You can't just allow low activity otherwise it will enable mafia to just keep their mouths shut. Forcing everyone to be active allows far more chances for slipups. Though then, what would be considered "active." Let's not forget real life--people may have commitments such as long day/night jobs or the likes. Though I do agree that there could be more slipups. Man I suddenly just thought about Nixon's "silent majority." I wonder if the "inactive" townies will actually vote? | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 21 2010 08:07 789 wrote: Well I got some time to kill before my friends come over ... so more posting! The fact that I've got a theory and whether I get killed or not won't really tell much. The mafia has no idea who I suspect. I could be right and have all 4 of them correct, or all 4 of them wrong, or some sort of mix. I won't give my list until I see some sort of other evidence from at least 1 of the 4. So if I do get killed (which I hope I don't ... dieing day 1 of my first game would suck) it just means the mafia might be paranoid. It wouldn't give anyone any clue as to who it is regardless if my list is right or wrong. If I did give my list it wouldn't mean anything anyway. If I'm wrong the mafia could off me to throw suspicion on others. If I'm right and I live it will throw suspicion off them. But at the same time right or wrong it could mean nothing but reverse psychology. Let's hope you don't get roflpwned then. Because the mafia right now has nothing to lose from killing you since you have not revealed anything, though the "threat" of you doing so could mean death as well. Darn. | ||
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Also as I've said before, that makes the game not fun. Yeah I mean winning is really really awesome and all. I play to win like 99.9% of the time. But then if we kill both the elected people it's... just not fun. Also yay we are more active than BC's game. Go us. | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 21 2010 09:25 QuickStriker wrote: Not for longg..... not for long.... we will make a comeback of viewcounts, messages, and also the process of game soon enough.... beware..... Our town is superior!!!1!!!1!!! Hmmm but I am enjoying simultaneously reading these old mafia posts. This is totally better than the card game version. | ||
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flamewheel
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However, since Hobbes hasn't posted much, and the main reason we suspect him is because of clues, even if he DOES turn out red it will not let us uncover any new leads. | ||
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On January 21 2010 14:12 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I think 789 is just playing terribly, not mafia. Hmmm well it's his first game. Then again, this is mine as well. *Shrug* | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 21 2010 14:46 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: Maybe he's not in here intervening right now because it's almost 1 AM in a lot of Canada and he's sleeping... Just a thought Si, it's not like we can all be awake 24 hours a day. Though I'm trying. t_co mate, you should calm down a bit. This drama adds nothing new to our side. | ||
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flamewheel
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But, why? | ||
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Since everybody has making pretty lengthy posts, I think I'll keep mine short. I really see no harm in lynching t_co. At this point in the game, our chances are higher of striking red than green or blue. I mean, would we really want somebody who causes consternation and divides the town to be a detective or something? Not sure that would work out well. Furthermore, more clues will mean more definite lynchings, since even our most solid connections on clues could be red herrings as of yet. So basically I won't be here for most of tonight and tomorrow (debate tournament at Duke University, probably should finish preparing) but I will try to lurk if they have wifi and will catch up on everything tomorrow. And the game begins soon~ | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 22 2010 10:38 CynanMachae wrote: Well, you could say that if we get a mafia on day 1 AND day two their kp would be reduced. But anyway, chances are very low of that lol. Not true. 2.5 rounds up to 3. | ||
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flamewheel
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Aight, g'night guys. Hmmm, I'll try to be more active tomorrow. | ||
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flamewheel
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Yes, the Olympic runner thing is quite strong--I agree. That picture I've chosen was specifically from the Beijing 2008 Olympics after Googling "Beijing Man"--one of my nicknames at school. I really don't have that much to say in my defense, other than point out that the Olympic reference, albeit strong, being the only thing convicting me. The people who have more free time on their hands, I would urge you to check more clues, seeing as if there is one 'solid' connection to any other person(s), that would somewhat invalidate the fact that I have one solid connection as well to being tied in with the mafia members. Things I would like people to look into further (or stuff I will look at if I have the time / life: P) "Walking home from the post-election celebration, a slightly tipsy blue_arrow was whistling tunelessly to himself in the violet dusk. After a block or two, he noticed the sound of someone shuffling behind him. Though unnerved, he tried to shrug it off and started walking faster. The shuffling did not speed up in response, and blue_arrow felt safer the further he walked from his follower. As the streetlamps flickered on one by one, he took a quick peek behind him. One glimpse of his follower's frightening appearance was enough to clear his mind and convince him the Mafia was after him. Blue_arrow took off running. Sweat dripped off his forehead and fear spurred him to achieve near-Olympian speed as he sprinted for his life. He flew past several blocks in a few minutes, but always he could hear his attacker plodding relentlessly after him. Finally, the exhausted blue_arrow slumped against a lamppost, so worn out by his headlong dash that he couldn't move another step. All he could do was watch with mounting dread as his entirely unperturbed attacker caught up to blue_arrow and strangled him to death." Streetlamps are mentioned twice--first while Blue_arrow is running and second when he tires out and slumps. Smaller and less noticeable but maybe containing clues: the "violet" dusk, the alcohol (tipsiness), and the tuneless whistling. Furthermore, I'm aware of bandwagoning and the snowball effect, so I'm fairly certain it would be quite hard for me to change most peoples' minds, seeing as how most of the active posters (and mayor and sheriff, darn this town is stacked against me) are against me. Being as such that I won't be back until 8:30 p.m. tomorrow from the Duke tournament, I won't have much time to defend myself between now and then. All in all, if you want to lynch me next--go ahead. Tritely put, I'll turn up green. (And it would really suck to be the miller my first game.) It's been very interesting reading what everybody has put up and I do not believe I am the most active, probably having only around 20 posts on this thread at this point. | ||
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flamewheel
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At this point, I am not sure, which is why I am not making that big of a point to defend myself. Logic is rewarded in this game, even if it turns out to false, and I haven't had but 15 minutes to read everything and start to look for clues. Considering the day is 48 hours though, I want to ask people to at least hold off on their decisive choice until later on. | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 23 2010 14:25 meeple wrote: Kane: ![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ee/Japanese-gong,kane,katori-city,japan.JPG) And this is not as strong of a correlation? | ||
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flamewheel
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1) Bodyguard was sniped. Now, that could be attributed to a lucky shot. Or, could it be something else? Who knows the identities of the bodyguards? Could that play a part in the death of Blue_arrow? 2) As "solid" (oh man I'm so sarcastic with these words) as the connection of plodding <=> tredmasta is, once again it is one clue (just as there was one clue pointing to me). Once again, I'd advocate being totally objective and not just go crazy on that. If we do believe clues are pertinent, our detective(s) (hoping there were more than two...) should be using their clue checks if they already haven't. Lay off on the PMs, since that seemed to get Bill Murray killed, and I would say we should probably get a rolecheck used, since right now they may be more beneficial than later in the game, where the chance of striking the godfather is much higher. Also, DTs should use them before they die (RIP Bill.) 3) Meeple's picture of kane has me (somewhat) sold. Pots and hammers make for a pretty odd killing outfit, and both seem to fit the clue, as well as whatever random tie-in to kane]deth[ was made on the first day. I will be investigating. 4) Being the defendant, I am immediately suspicious of those who just bandwagoned/called for the double lynch. StimiLant and ghote have been pretty inactive as far as I can remember, and both just recently popped up either calling for my head or for the double lynch. I would like to call out ghote, since he has been one of (many) of my primary "antagonists." On page 49, he commentates on the Olympic reference: "i say we use a double lynch and take both flamewheel91 and Hobbes Hobbes comes up with obvious connections to the clues left behind, and i believe that the profile picture for flamewheel91 fits in very well with the first set of clues, (Olympian)(the man is a runner, or a track and field athlete) i find these two people to be prime candidates for lynching, and with the heavy loses we had on night one we need to take a strike back at the mafia today" Which is to say, he has read what people have been saying about the one clue leading to me. However, on the next page he immediately says: Ghote writes, on page 50: "there have been multiple clues leading to flamewheel and hobbes as long as one of them is lynched our lives will be better," Seeing as how there's been one such clue leading to me, I challenge you to find another one in the text. Sounds like you're just on the wagon. Furthermore, on page 49 he iterates: "well regardless of the actions of Bill we need to decide who to lynch today" As I and others have noted, there are 48 hours to decide on who to lynch. Why so hasty? Next, StimiLant--has been accused himself, really hasn't defended, nobody has really followed up on that. Resurfaces to call for the double lynch and to call for lynching me. I will be checking your trail. | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 23 2010 15:02 StimiLant wrote: alright flamewheel your rebuddle makes a lot of sense and i hate to be fickle but i will abstain till later, as for me mafia? dude seriously if ur green then i am also green seriously. I never said you were mafia--other people have. What I was saying is that there is an inconclusive posting trail that has been left by/for you. Perhaps you are green and just inactive (like I somewhat am). I thank you for showing some sense though in this last post rather than just continuing to scream for my head. | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 23 2010 15:05 meeple wrote: The tea -> Stimulated link is probably one of the weakest And as we've all said, most day 1 links are thought to be pretty weak. Even the "strongest" one linking Hobbes to mafia isn't that strong overall. | ||
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On January 23 2010 15:14 ghote wrote: flamewheel for one "there have been multiple clues leading to flamewheel and hobbes as long as one of them is lynched our lives will be better" there have been multiple clues to flamewheel and Hobbes, please read the whole quote next time you come at me with this kind of accusation. there is only one quote leading to you, i have not stated otherwise, it is the fact that this one clue is so resounding with aspects of your profile that i have strong beliefs that you are ether mafia, or a miller, it is the safe bet to go with the first option. secondly if you look back at some of my previous posts on day 1 i have advocated for the lynch of Hobbes so using the argument of bandwagoning on this double lynch is purely based upon your speculation. (and i ment today as in game days not right this minuet ^^) all in all i believe that you are linked directly to the clue left behind in this murder, and because of that correlation, you deserve to be lynched And for you: please type what you mean then as to not confuse other people. Furthermore, if you have so strongly advocated for the lynching of Hobbes since day 1 then why do you cease and desist on calling for his lynching THEN for the double lynching the next day? I would be very pleased if you could find me some more evidence as to why I am mafia, since you seem so deadset against me being innocent. If you can find more proof (which I would find highly unlikely) that isn't oh-so-flimsy. And since I've cleared up my confusion with meeples' post: On January 23 2010 15:20 meeple wrote: I'm not saying flamewheel isn't mafia... but there are other ways for those clues to be interpreted... Some of the people here aren't really looking at the clues before deciding what to do... The fact that you came out so strongly for it immediately after DrH suggested it is somewhat suspicious that you're just following his lead instead of thinking for yourself. Since you have come up with nothing original, you are still a bandwagoner, which pretty much means that any rational person would not place a lot of weight on your judgment. As you've stated, you have not found any other clue leading to me. I would assume that if one such as yourself were so strongly convinced that I am mafia, you would at least try to pull more information on me to make your posts more credible. All in all being said, I leave this post with one last thought: At this point, it can be viewed as "suspicious" that you so suddenly jump upon to agree with the good Doctor about me. Now, if I were somebody else I may be like "omg you teh mafia cuz u tryin to incite stuff!!!1!!" but I will not until I have firmly rooted my thinking in logic. What I mean by that is, I have nothing against you. THREE HOURS FLASH V JAEDONG YAY YAY YAY. | ||
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Hmmm I can't do math. | ||
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On January 23 2010 21:31 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I'll post what I think of all of this tomorrow. I'm too upset right now to even think or read or do anything at all. I'm with you... incredibly sorry for both Flash and Jaedong. | ||
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flamewheel
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I am gone for the next 12 hours to a debate tournament. Therefore, consider me not defending myself (though I think I've done that well enough on previous pages) is not me "copping out." See you at 8:00 p.m. EST. | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 24 2010 13:42 789 wrote: Well we have three categories. 1) Clues and active, but not defending themselves. Hobbes from day 1 killer 1 would fit into this category. He's posted some, but never tried to defend himself in any real way. I would say the clues aren't that strong on him though. I'm not sure I think about his behavior. He may be playing it safe and to not incriminate himself or just knows there is nothing he can really say. He hasn't really contributed much or defended himself which is a bit odd. 2) Clues and defended self. Flamewheel falls into this category. He hasn't really been that active until he was brought up as a possible suspect. I think that is a little bit suspicious myself. There is still the possibility that he is just trying to honestly defense himself. 3) Clues and inactive. Treadmasta(spelling?) and kane fall into this category. Hard to gauge these. They could be lurking mafia or green/blues. Or just simply not participating. I admit my behavior can be construed as suspicious, seeing as how I have become suddenly "active" after becoming accused. However, would you not defend? Furthermore, I have a pretty busy school schedule--which in itself doesn't say anything. Logically speaking though, 789, is it more effective to lynch somebody who does not ever defend themselves? Hobbes has been accused multiple times and has gotten away without defending himself due to extenuating circumstances: t_co causing drama, night 1 killings, etc. On January 24 2010 13:58 789 wrote: I'm not quite sure yet. Flamewheel's olympic link is pretty decent and his behavior is at least a little suspicious. I think him and Kane have the strongest clue links. The problem with the Kane clue ... maybe I went fishing and found something completely unrelated that the writer didn't know about by luck. Then again I can't think of anything that remotely fits that. They both hurt equally bad if they flip blue, but I think flamewheel will hurt more if he flips green. He's at least proven that he does participate by defending himself. I am still leaning towards kane, but I feel less confident about the decision as time goes by. The fact that I have been able to analytically and logically defend myself should say something more about my worth as a player, I feel. | ||
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On January 24 2010 14:28 ghote wrote: Hobbes is still a prime suspect, due to the clues from days one and two (in specific the part in day two about the "wild animal" ) Then am I still your top suspect, ghote? Have you happened to find anymore information on me yet? | ||
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On January 24 2010 14:29 789 wrote: While I said your behavior might be a little suspicious, I still have kane #1 on my list for what it's worth. Also I agee with your second point, which is why I said it would hurt more if you flipped green. And if you're accused, 789, by the same token it will seem suspicious if your posting activity rises in order to save your own life. But I thank you for your logical follow through--I am still strongly protesting my lynching by the rest of the bandwagoners out there. | ||
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On January 24 2010 15:47 JohannesH wrote: <3 But gotta agree that clues mostly distract us at this point, we might get lucky and hit a gangsta but thats pretty unlikely to me - and even if we get them that way, we cant really connect them to other mafiamen with that method. I would take under suspicion anyone who votes for a double lynch, either they are mafia trying to cut the townie count faster & save themselves from it at later date, or just really stupid which isnt desirable either. So stupid = trying to get rid of an extra mafia member? However unlikely at this point, it's not considered "stupid," especially since you don't know how the detectives are working at this point. | ||
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flamewheel
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Will defend myself in a few hours, though I feel like I've said what I need to say. No new evidence has been brought up against me. | ||
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I will just once again plead innocence, since there's still nothing new.  | ||
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On January 25 2010 12:15 789 wrote: Tredmasta was as much of a stretch as kane was. I was considering voting for flamewheel, but at the time I voted it wouldn't have mattered. It is all a moot point if Zona is right about us reading the clues wrong. From the general mood, I feel like both tredmasta and I were equally as likely a "stretch." | ||
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On January 25 2010 12:54 789 wrote: It could be a useful tactic for the mafia to send one to do that. If the mafia can cause chaos amongst the townies it makes it much harder for them to work together and take out the mafia. I think it's still hard to say exactly what the mafia is doing, considering the options available to them while they are still under the cover of anonymity. However, it is very viable that those pointing fingers could be mafia agents, especially since: 1) Mafia at this point aren't as afraid of losing members, since their KP remains at 3 until they drop to 4 members and, 2) More town suspicion means less actual fire focused at them. | ||
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On January 25 2010 12:58 DoctorHelvetica wrote: What a game huh? Watched it at the local sports bar. Unbelievable. What was the final score? I heard it was close. | ||
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And by "clues clues" you mean "one clue." Two words does not a sufficient response make, bandwagoner. | ||
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On January 25 2010 13:27 JohannesH wrote: At the moment we dont have much anything besides incognitos clues which are unreliable to the max. So some fingerpointing is much better than just staying silent and lynching the dude whos got a strange picture on profile. Interesting point: we do seem to be reading clues wrongly. Both as a means of defense for myself (since I have not been clearly, and rightly so since logically I could still be a mafia member) and as a new (semi-new) train of thought: At this time, we are going to be extending networks to those who we feel like we can trust in. Therefore, more information about players can be spread this way. Perhaps, as a few people have stated, it would be more in our interests to watch actions, not clues. | ||
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On January 25 2010 13:37 ghote wrote: your right we should just not look at clues and blindly hang anyone who pisses us of nice idea This coming from a person who jumps onto wagons with the first accusations? No, we don't discount clues entirely--we use what is given to use, albeit misleading as it seems, and keep that in mind when we are dealing with other people. Clues become exponentially more important as we go on, and perhaps after this next night round we will be able to. But seeing as how we have a day to wait until the next set, we might as well try to analyze people and go back to clues when we have more information. | ||
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Your timing was win, though your message was not. | ||
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On January 25 2010 15:38 flamewheel91 wrote: Your timing was win, though your message was not. On a lighter note: +1. | ||
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On January 25 2010 16:23 JohannesH wrote: Hm I didnt get the point of this message, postcount++? :D No I like 1337. I feel like I just ended on too bitchy of a note. | ||
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On January 25 2010 16:22 JohannesH wrote: No. Its just the other way around. Usually this game is played without any clues whatsoever. Agreed. XV wasn't, and it was a very exciting read. | ||
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On January 25 2010 22:20 citi.zen wrote: A couple of random observations, which will not help anyone at this point: the mafia killed the first three people if you list naes alphabetically, ignoring punctuation marks; we complain about clues, but in the end we did not really use the strongest ones for lynching either night. Hobbes and freewheel are still with us, and t_co and kane turned out to be green. flamewheel I agree though: until we get the next set of clues, it would be prudent for us to look based on players' actions and interactions. Seeing as how I cannot actually dissuade people from logic since clues are there, I invite persons who have suspicions about me to interrogate me further. | ||
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On January 25 2010 23:53 citi.zen wrote: BloodyC0bbler's mafia game ain't going any better for the town. I'd say theirs is worse. Lynching an inactive detective night one, then losing a bodyguard following the night, then the two vigilantes... yeah. 'Snot looking good for them. | ||
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On January 26 2010 00:04 citi.zen wrote: I don't see how we are saying the same thing: you are suggesting looking at people's actions instead of clues, I am stating that we tried tha with t_co and kane, and it has not worked out very well. Oops, quoted wrong person. My apologies. My thoughts still stand. | ||
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On January 26 2010 07:19 citi.zen wrote: I mean, if you read the thread regularly and generally reply promptly, I would think there would be... more. I don't mean to single you out, keit, hyperbola, free and a few others are in the same boat. citi.zen... once again, FLAME. Man if I'm going to be singled out at least it should be done correctly  789's post is interesting though, the part about Skronch... | ||
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On January 27 2010 04:48 Ng5 wrote: Mystlord eyem the strongest. Very-very weak link. It takes strength to throw someone out the window. But it doesn't to kick the fridge's door on someone. keit Again the only link is showing down an apple down the victim's throat. I don't know much for how barbaric Cookie Monster is, but isn't it far-fetched to call him so? Something not so obvious. meeple Into the fray my friends, may our feet be swift, our hands be sure, and our necks keep a firm grasp on our heads. ... Swift feet... Just how swift should you be to kick the door on someone right as you see they are ducking behind it. Given that Incognito was the quickest to react. And hands sure? How sure (and quick) should hands be to block a knife with an apple. And also, being struck, blocking with an apple and showing it right down their throat - and then throwing them out of the window. The quote itself also seems something you would say before a charge - a far-fetched relation with taunting, but it's still not much more far-fetched than the previous links. Another thing. Maybe there's someone linked to a barbaric/tribal shaman? I have the feeling something is still missing about this barbaric person we haven't uncovered yet. Just a feeling. Third night clue--death by poisonous mist. Mystlord himself says the killer (who takes off his scarf) seems impervious to it. Just something to say. Okay back to game theory. | ||
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On January 27 2010 12:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Neither my or keit's behavior makes sense of both of us are mafia. If we were both mafia, it would make zero sense for him to accuse me in the first place, much less for me to strongly advocate his lynching. If mafia are going to vote for mafia, wouldn't they bandwagon onto it rather than start the bandwagon themselves? False. At this point, I think it is safe to assume that we, the town, are close to catching at least one mafia. For one mafia member to throw the others into the pit at this point by vehemently attacking him would remove suspicion on himself. | ||
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flamewheel
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On January 27 2010 13:37 derfboy wrote: Ng5's right. this next decision will determine the outcome of the game. we can't afford to go about this hastily. i think we should double lynch mystlord and flamewheel first. the thick air strongly suggests mystlord (although the spelling is off, i'm sure most people have interpreted myst as mist). the evidence against keit doesn't incriminate him perfectly, but it works to some degree. i don't think we need to lynch him because he isn't active or a major contributor + he doesn't want to play, so he'll probably get modkilled. i don't remember what the flamewheel clue was, but it seems like a lot of people agreed that it pointed to him. if we lynch dochelvetica before all of them and he turns out blue, it would hurt us more. although the thin blade clue from night 1 seems to point to doc, the other clues are just as incriminating imo. so if we don't get any mafia members in the double lynch, we'll go for dochelvetica, since the next most obvious clue points to him. if dochelvetica turns out red, it'd put us back into the game. if he's actually blue, gg. if we get 1 or 2 mafia in the double lynch, we can still go for dochelvetica if the new clues point to him or if someone provides an impeccable argument incriminating him. i might be too trusting of DocH, but from what he's contributed, i think he deserves more time to prove himself innocent. also, even if dochelvetica is red, it won't matter that much if we keep him alive for another day or two because he's still a major contributor. if we can interpret what he says for ourselves, he'd still be helping us win. as long as we can lower the KP by interpreting the strongest clues, we'd be heading in the right direction. Bolded parts are done by me for emphasis. Bold 1: See 'Bold 2' for clarification. If you are all about not being hasty, you should be more thorough. Bold 2: Us voting for the double lynch applies to tomorrow's day cycle, not today's. We cannot double lynch today. Again, at this point you should learn the rules, read the posts, analyze clues yourself, and essentially not contradict yourself. Bold 3: This is a good point. No need to waste the lynch on Keit. Bolds 3 and 4 are adjacent to one another. Bold 4: Bandwagoner. Enough said. Call me aggressive on this, but the people who I have talked to know my stance on bandwagoning, especially when it's as clueless as this. If you're going to accuse, at least know why you are accusing. Yes, this is a direct attack on derfboy, though people reading this cannot call me a "flamer." He is largely inactive, except for the voting, and based on opinion, that should make him suspicious. The fact that he pops up now in this pseudo-defense (stalling?) of DrH compounds the suspicion in my eyes. Bold 5: At this point in the game, we as the town are in a dire situation. If we fail to act now, all is lost. Fanciful rhetoric aside, what I am saying is this: We have lost both our bodyguards. Therefore, the medics themselves have to protect the elected officials, and their protection may not be enough. Even if they do protect, the rest of the town is open, leading to potshots by mafia that could snipe other blues, even the medics themselves. On the other hand, this "incarceration" power can save two people--potentially, or it could end up locking blues away from their powers while the mafia runs free. In short, what I believe is that the risk of leaving the most active (and therefore for bandwagon'ed sheep, the most influential) poster (potentially mafia) alive and able to divide the town and cause medics to effectively lose their powers outweighs the loss of the incarceration power. Furthermore, I know it applies to others as well and not just DrH, but the colour of the lynched victim can shed light on those who affected/were affected by him. If we do not act today/tonight, we lose. Bold 6: Blind trust is a bad thing in this game. In response to the "he deserves more time" thing, he has 24 hours to present his case. Based on how much he has posted, his status as a writer, and his activity in this thread, if he has a defense he should be able to and (sensibly) post it. Now people, this is the type of post I will be making as soon as I am able to free up more time. I will be going through all the inconclusive or extended (both opinionated and factual) to post both my own objective and opinionated ideas. For those of you who say "opinions are bad," this game is played with intuition as well as clues, and while the "gut feeling" is not as great as having solid, factual evidence, it is somewhere to start and can lead to better results. | ||
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So obviously there are red herrings in the clues (or at least, things that we have misinterpreted), as we have been accusing townies and killing them. But, for the mods, if they will deign to answer: We all know the unfortunate position of the miller, he who perceives himself to be town but is thought of as not. Does he get clues written about him, as if he were a mafia member? | ||
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Thanks for the (ridiculously) quick reply, Incognito! | ||
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To clarify a few things: You can abstain from voting, which will keep you "active" and prevent you from being modkilled. My clue was not 'agreed upon' by both DrH and meeple, as meeple found tredmasta more of a candidate for mafioso from that clue than he did me. The fact that DrH missed the mist clue isn't the main reason, if you read citi.zen's post on page 74. It is merely one of several factors. | ||
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On January 28 2010 08:19 Nikoner wrote: OK, to me it seems that the case against Dr. Helvetica is fairly closed by the majority. However, with our apparent less than stellar clue interpretation so far, I do not feel like the double lynch is warranted yet, unless you guys are 100% sure that with tomorrow's clues we will be able to find out a mafia person. I think at this point, even if the town does score a victory tonight, we are still basically all-inning. Did you guys see the Kwanflow? ALL IN! => Is the game over? => No (where we stand) => ALL IN! With four days of clues and a decreasing number of people in the game, we have a higher chance each day of striking. | ||
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Best case scenario though, we get THREE mafia (small probability) and reduce KP. But, yeah. T-minus two hours(ish) now. Here goes nothing, zerglings. | ||
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On January 28 2010 12:09 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I can shed light on these sort of things when the game is over. I would like that. Post-game analysis would provide for a lot. | ||
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Funny how much difference one event can make, eh? | ||
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Sheriff You won first place in the election. Bravo! You cannot be Role Checked by a DT. You are able to PM me during the day with a player to be incarcerated that night. Incarcerated players cannot use any powers the night they are incarcerated. If a mafia is incarcerated, they do not contribute to the determination of Mafia KP (Kill Power), so Mafia KP may be lowered. An incarcerated player cannot be killed the night they are incarcerated. If the Sheriff is lynched, no player may be incarcerated that night. You only get 2 incarcerations. You may not incarcerate yourself. The same player cannot be incarcerated twice. You cannot incarcerate a player during Night 1. Bolding done by me. So... yeah. | ||
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Will be doing my own silent analysis. | ||
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The case against Hyperbola. The first inkling: On January 20 2010 12:58 meeple wrote: I think those types of classifications are too vague... Hyperbola is a math term, so that could be construed as cold and calculating as well. A first day clue, but as we've seen most of those were pretty vague. Connection between Hyperbola and DoctorHelvetica, a confirmed Mafia member: On January 20 2010 13:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Maybe. The apple reference is what stood out to me the most, so I think I just really want to connect that to something. Although it definitely is, something. The StimiLant/Tea connection seems the most solid to me though. As we know that DoctorHelvetica is mafia, the fact that he accepts but shoves aside the case against Hyperbola is suspicious. Hyperbola's "clue" analysis: On January 21 2010 03:34 Hyperbola wrote: Hello everybody, how's it going. As there are no real viable suspects to lynch yet I have decided to compile some clues I was thinking about: 1. “The killer blocked Kennigit's blade with an apple that had had fallen out of the refrigerator and swiftly proceeded to shove the remains of the apple down Kennigit's throat before throwing him out the window.” This clue in particular caught my eye. Something of importance along the lines of an apple, forbidden fruit maybe? Anyways... possible suspects: skronch - Really no other reason than his name. As he does not have any text or images in his profile, his name is the only thing that could be used as a clue. And “skronch” sounds like the sound one makes when eating the apple. The_Master – A little weak but blocking a knife attack with a fruit and then killing the assailant with it takes a lot of skill. Besides his name, his quote is: “[CPL]Master on team Prodigies!” 2. “Two newcomers strode inside.” This one I actually have a firm belief on. Abenson – His profile text. + Show Spoiler + Hello! I'm Abenson, an E-/D-/D zerg player who just started playing Starcraft December 2009... I'm actually a noob, so please bear with me if I ask stupid questions or seems inexperienced :D Note: Iccup ID: xNoobZerg This seems to suggest that he is very new at the game, a newcomer. 3. “With that, he launched himself forward at the three town leaders, lifting his fists and taunting them with strange barbaric noises.” citi.zen – I don't mean to infringe on anyone's campaign but his quote: Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam. Sounds like someone babbling something nonsensical. I wasn't able to find a translation so correct me if I'm wrong. StimiLant – Again, not much to work with in his profile. Sounds like the person screaming was using stimulants? 4. “The second Mafia member glared at Qatol in disgust and contempt. "Vile, dirty scum," he muttered, shuddering.” meeple – This one is a bit of long shot + Show Spoiler + A marine approached a hooker Who had once been quite the looker (Well before a thousand took her), "Carnal bride, On the planet of Tarsonis, Whores are known to earn a bonus If they cast protection's onus Far aside." That pecuniary offer From the horny private's coffer Held appeal. She let him boff her Very long. In their frenzied copulation, She released an infestation On his dong. Once their sex was interrupted With his manmeat thus corrupted, Sunken colonies erupted At its base. The marine observed his error With a look of pallid terror On his face. Having waived his sole protection, He was led by his erection By the Swarm, in the direction Of his watch. Twenty soldiers of his nation Perished in precise formation To the massive conflagration From his crotch. Should you seek a lady's graces, Plasma-shield your nether places, Sheath your psi blades, cast a stasis On your probe. If you can't resist temptation, Just resort to masturbation. Don't disrobe. The poem in the profile briefly focuses on an old prostitute that infested the marine's cock. That's all I got. I think we should really come to a decision soon though. Skronch flipped green. Abenson flipped green. Flimsy connections for The_Master, citi.zen (confirmed green), and meeple (clue convicting meeple is cluechecked and tied to DrH). StimiLant: tea is just as important or more important than the screaming, but this part of the analysis is later vouched for by mafia DrH. Feeding the wolves: On January 24 2010 07:01 Hyperbola wrote: You know there's such a thing as reverse logic? Throwing another mafia to the wolves will make people doubt he is guilty. This last clue against kane is pretty strong. I'd say, for now, he actually is our best target. kane flipped green. Feel free to continue analyzing me. A mafia member WAS thrown to the wolves, but much much later and only after a combined effort to bring him down from the town. Knight captures pawn: On January 27 2010 06:36 Ng5 wrote: Hyperbola? The grass was surprisingly wet and his throat and nostrils were filled. Dizzy and drowsy. Drowsy? And dizzy? Drowning does make you dizzy and it's drowsy. Yet an animal living in water is like... fish in water. And the scarf... Look at the animal. When the tentacles are not open it could seem like it's face is masked or something. Yet when it's strangling it's prey it's face becomes uncovered and opens up! Hyperbola's picture is that of a squid with a shell eating a crab. The mouth is open, and tentacles (scarves) are strangling. Water. Nice catch, Ng5. The best defense is... oh wait, this isn't even defense: Nothing more to add to that? And finally, the new night's clue: Also on his way home from the Thirsty Pony Pub, JohannesH had reached his apartment building and was climbing the steps in his apartment building. Even though he lived on the sixth floor, he enjoyed the exercise of taking the stairs and hated waiting for the elevator. The exertion cleared the alcoholic fumes from his head and he cheerfully arrived on the sixth floor, anticipating no hangover the next morning. However, all his good cheer vanished when he saw who was waiting for him outside his door. The Mafia member lumbered toward him. JohannesH cried out in terror and ran back toward the stairway, virtually flying down the stairs. With that big burden he's carrying, there's no way he can catch up to me, he thought. As he reached the ground floor, panting from his breakneck escape, he heard an ominous ding! from the elevator. The doors slid open to reveal the Mafia member. His shock and horror froze him in place, and he couldn't react quickly enough as his attacker slid behind JohannesH and strangled him to death. Bolding done by me. Once again, strangling. Heavy burden? Think the shell on the squid. Final thoughts: Most of this has already been stated. Just filling in the holes here. Vote Hyperbola off as one of your next candidates for the double. The game ends soon. Good job town. | ||
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Was fun. | ||
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Nix that thought. | ||
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On February 01 2010 11:45 citi.zen wrote: DrH's original mistake was to tell Zona I was role-checked green by Bill. I could never understand why he would do that - I trusted nobody at that time and he didn't have any reason to trust Zona either. Early game I was desperately trying to make sense of that mistake of his. When I got the clue check report, it fit, otherwise I would not have trusted it as readily. Flame and meeple, as it happened, were independently trying to persuade me DrH was fishy. Once he went down the other mafia did come out too strong, but really much of the damage was done. It would have been more work, but I mean... DrH wrote over 250 posts, saying things like the cookie monster did not fit the clues because it reminded him of a "retarded bear" :-) Dude citi.zen finally gets my name right! Ah, good game guys. And whew Hobbes--turns out there really was more than one cat. Though that other cat got modpwned. | ||
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Just in case things had gone the other way, then we would've been able to add more fuel to the storm. | ||
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On February 01 2010 16:24 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: Wait, did you just take personal credit for every good thing the town did this game? You really did, didn't you. Yes, yes you did. Oh lord. Dude, he totally just did. Man he's such a pro. Clearly the game was lost without his constant snarking. | ||
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Once again, good game, thanks hosts (don't think I've mentioned that yet) I'm looking forward to playing more and being able to be more active... since I really didn't do all that much in this game other than help plan the original DrH callout and defend myself rather aggressively. . | ||
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Next mafia game I will spruce up the profile ahead of time! | ||
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Third party mafia might be interesting. | ||
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And with tennis season coming up I'd be too busy to actually play, but... | ||
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