EPTIncognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 2
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 14:08 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I would really like to see you make something concrete of me and meeple "strongly" supporting eachother. I voted for him and that's about it. If that is your idea of mega strong support then I don't know what to say. Just because we were all active in the beginning doesn't even remotely imply that we had prior coordination, what the fuck. It implies we are in the same time-zone maybe. I don't have intense trust in meeple, citi.zen, or anyone besides myself. But I can't vote for myself, so I voted for meeple since he was the most active aside from me at the time. I think you are reading way too hard into this, but you seem pretty set on the idea that me and meeple are in some unholy alliance. I think its obvious to the entire town how you and meeples have been back-to-back for a while. Why is his run for mayor given such a free pass, even given his inactivity currently, compared to my run for mayor which seems to run into extreme opposition from you? | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 14:24 Jugan wrote: First, I'm reluctant to cast a vote against t_co. While he may seem obnoxious and is at the very center of the controversy in the game, he may very well be innocent. The truth? We simply don't know. While I'm not saying he's a good guy... he does have a lot of experience. That means he could be invaluable for us. If he is indeed mafia, it's still early in the game - we can also come back and lynch him if we have more evidence against him. However, I strongly advise NOT to vote for him in the election. His arguments have a lot of faulty logic, and it seems as if he is desperate to be elected. I think this is making a lot of people suspect him to be mafia. To me, it's more likely that he feels that he himself gives the townies the greatest chance of winning (assuming he really is a green/blue). I'd like to note that t_co made the following statement: + Show Spoiler + In light of the new situation, then, there is a clear way to solve this problem, and it involves lynching one of us three on night one. Me, DrH, or meeples. DrH or meeples are the better candidates for this because once one goes and flips red/green it removes a large portion of doubt regarding the other person's color. Solution: If I am elected, I will lynch meeples. Then, if meeples flips green, I want the town to lynch me. If meeples flips red, then lynch DrH and go down the 789 list. but contradicted that statement with an earlier statement of his own: + Show Spoiler + However, it is extremely difficult to lynch either the sheriff or the mayor (especially if one is mafia) If you are mafia, then you win - as proven by your own logic. Also, there are a lot of holes in t_co's argument. Again, I think he's trying too hard to get elected. The night one lynch is decided by the mayor. If I'm not elected and Doctor Meeples lynches someone else on night one, then lynch me night two. If I flip green, there is a VERY STRONG CHANCE that between Doctor and Meeples there is a mafia. Then at least it tells the blues in the town to stay the fuck away from Sheriff/Mayor and can be used later as evidence for their lynchings. If I flip red, then great--go after 789 and my "supporters" (which DoctorH claims to say I have but given this thread no one has given me explicit support). | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 14:32 Jugan wrote: I agree with the doctor. The best way to push people away is to get aggressive and go after people. I think if you tried to rationalize things instead of pointing fingers and trying to make up logic as you go, you would be more successful in being elected. At first t_co I wanted to vote for you because your original post brought me in - I'm new to this game, and i'm not 100% "here" yet, I'm still figuring things out. You demonstrated experience and knowledge of the game. However, upon further reading, your arguments and accusations and faulty logic pushed me away. Given that logic, the best thing then would be to lynch me if this aggression is detrimental to the town. And I fully agree--because then it would cast a more certain eye toward who the real mafia were. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 14:29 DoctorHelvetica wrote: lol what what do you mean a free pass. I voted for him because he was inactive. I'm not voting for you because your arguments are stupid and you're pointing fingers all over the fucking place. You earlier said you vote for people who are actively participating. Now you say you voted for him because he's inactive. So which is it? Why, exactly, are you voting for him? Can you cite one logical reason why? All he did was post regarding why we should lynch hobbes and then left. You would imagine that in all this posting regarding him, he would at least say something. But instead, you come here and defend him and he remains silent. Why? Voting for meeple does not mean I support him 100% and he is my best friend. I voted for him because he has been objective and had a cool attitude, in opposition to you who has been very aggressive. And now he doesn't even post; that's very strange. If he's so objective and has such a cool attitude, then why isn't he coming into the thread to calm everyone down? If he wants to lead the town he should at least do it now. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 14:34 Jugan wrote: There's no way you're getting sheriff t_co. if you do get elected mayor and are mafia, you can easily snipe off a townie and with the mafia hits we could really be in a rut. your accusations of the doctor and meeples are really out there... I've read all their posts and they don't seem that "buddy buddy" to me. All the doctor said is he likes how meeples thinks. This is what Doctor H has said about meeples in discussions regarding the mayor role: 1) he is running but has no agenda 2) he is actively participating and objective 3) he is inactive. The 2nd and 3rd reason don't make sense together. When I mean "buddy buddy" I don't mean that Doctor H has explicitly endorsed meeples (no mafia would ever be dumb enough to do that to their fellow mafia) but he has simply avoided giving any clear reason to support meeples which is consistent, instead changing the reasons he supports him to fit whatever meeples is doing. In this sense I think they have some sort of bond that goes beyond their public interaction in this thread. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 14:48 DoctorHelvetica wrote: whoah that was a typo. I meant to say "I voted for him because he was active.", my mistake. I explained many times why I voted for him. He was active from the beginning and was helpful in analyzing the clues. As far as to why he's being inactive for the past few hours. He could be out with his friends, working, sleeping, playing starcraft, playing some other video game, at a family event. A player not posting for 24 hours might be suspicious, not for the last couple pages lol He's been inactive for at least the past 14 hours. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 14:51 DoctorHelvetica wrote: i don't know what the fuck you're talking about since "meeple is an active player and has been helpful in analyzing clues" has been my reason since the beginning lol i don't know why you think it is relevant that he hasn't been posting for the past few hours during 1 am where he lives. How do you know where he lives? | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 14:55 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: its says "Canada" above every one of his posts, just like it says "United States" right above yours and mine. Yeah and Canada spans 5 time zones. So it could be 9 PM through 1 AM. ROFL | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Like how the town gains very minimal benefits from having a town mayor but huge harms from a mafia mayor. Even if I become mayor I would've still called for myself to be lynched if people suspected me. And now we have a mayor whom, even if the town doesn't suspect them, the town doesn't trust them very much either, and who, unfortunately, will not be able to coordinate strategy with the mayor. The problem now is that if we don't trust the mayor then he or she is better off dead, since the individual power of the mayor is his/her 3 votes, which only grow really powerful in the end stages of the game when the total number of votes is less. And in the end stages, since the bodyguards are dead by then, then the IF mayor is town, he will undoubtedly not survive long and be of little use, and IF mayor is mafia, mayor essentially can cast 2 extra mafia lynch votes which pushes the mafia GG 4 dead bodies closer (and depending on KP, that could be 2 or even 3 nights forward of where it could've been.) | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 15:47 meeple wrote: What's you coherent strategy? Lynch everyone who agrees with each other? No--I only wanted to lynch you and DrH because you guys started agreeing with each other wayyy too early in the thread, and furthermore, you guys backed each others' runs for the mayor/sheriff awfully early too. Anyhow, my strategy was: Random Ordering There are 7 mafia and 27 normal players + 2 extra mayor votes. In order for the mafia to win they must have a majority of survivor votes. The mafia kill 3 people per night. That means we have a 5 night margin of wrong lynches before mafia win. Once we take down mafia, that margin of nights increases. There is a simple solution, then, that can guarantee at least a 75% chance of success for the town. Arrange everyone in a random order and execute the next one on the list each night. With the 5 night margin of wrong lynches and the 1/2 kp/# proportion and 1:4 mafia:town ratio the town has a 77.8% chance of victory. This hinges on making sure the mayor is not mafia. If he is mafia then it becomes 9 mafia and 27 normal votes which means that the town only has a 3 night margin and the chances of victory for that plan go to 40%. That was my strategy. Happy? | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 16:35 meeple wrote: Can you expand on this? What were your calculations to get the result? Here's the python script + Show Spoiler + #!/usr/bin/env python import random TRIALS = 100000 MAFIA_FRACTION = 0.25 MIN_POP = 6 MAX_POP = 30 HIT_VARIANT = 0 COMMONER = 0 MAFIA = 1 maf_wins = 0 com_wins = 0 def init_town(): popsize = random.randint(MIN_POP,MAX_POP) town = [COMMONER for j in range(0,popsize)] maf_count = int(MAFIA_FRACTION * popsize) for j in range(maf_count): while 1: idx = random.randint(0,popsize-1) if town[idx] != MAFIA: break town[idx] = MAFIA return town def hit_commoner(town): if COMMONER not in town: return town else: com = town.index(COMMONER) return town[:com] + town[com+1  for i in range(TRIALS): town = init_town() while len(town) > 0: town = town[1 if HIT_VARIANT: town = hit_commoner(town) maf_left = town.count(MAFIA) pop_left = len(town) if maf_left > (pop_left/2): maf_wins += 1 break elif maf_left == 0: com_wins += 1 break print "Commoner wins : " + str(com_wins) print "Mafia wins : " + str(maf_wins) print ("Mafia fraction : " + str(float(maf_wins)/float(maf_wins+com_wins))) | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Gah, how did I go through the reverse of a Gandhi quote? Gandhi: First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Me: First I was winning, then they fought me, then they laughed at me, now they'll ignore me, and I'll get hit/lynched. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 22 2010 05:14 citi.zen wrote: Or a killed on - remember the mob can kill their own guy. If they did AND the medic saved them, they'd be in great shape. Actually mafia can't kill their own. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 22 2010 05:19 dreamflower wrote: Medics cannot save anyone from being lynched. They can only save people from dying during the night, and lynches happen in the daytime. Mafia can kill their own members, if they choose. But wouldn't that be fairly obvious, since the night description would have 2 people teaming up to kill a red? | ||
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