EPTMini Mafia 2
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Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
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Zato-1
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Zato-1
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On January 05 2010 16:52 Vivi57 wrote: I say we kill scamp. He'll post so little that his role won't be too transparent and we'll be forced to kill him for inactivity without gaining new information. This also helps to enforce that mafia must post or they'll be killed for inactivity. Hm. Scamp doesn't post much, but what he does post is usually telling, in my experience. Since all we have on day 1 for choosing a Lynch target is behavioral analysis, I'd rather go after the people who are 'immune' to behavioral analysis. And by this, I mean Chezinu. Usually, all he posts are random references to 'Ace' and 'Brown', and his comments are completely unrelated to the game, its players, its roles, suggested courses of action, etc. That is, in fact, a valid mafia strategy- say a lot of shit so people don't peg you down for being inactive, but never commit to saying something relevant so that you won't be called out for something you said. As it is, the only way for the Town to ever determine his role directly will be through a DT, which I'd rather use on some other big-name players instead (L, Ace). Leaning: Lynch Chezinu Then, there's the matter of our other night roles: DTs, Medics, Vigis. DTs should definitely check out the big-name players. For me, these are: Ace, L. They're basically a big boon in terms of post quality, behavioral analysis and Town leadership if they're Townies, so it's a good idea to see whether we should be rallying around them early or not. And if they're mafia... we'll want them lynched ASAP. Oh, and do remember the Godfather won't show up as mafia in a RC; if a RC comes up Red, the DT knows with 100% certainty that player's mafia. If it doesn't come up red, the DT does not know with 100% certainty whether that player's mafia or not. Medics should cover blue roles. How do you find out if someone is a blue role? Good question. Hopefully I'll be able to answer it by nighttime. On a final note: Player list seems to be 12 people long. Are there 12 of us? If so, please fix the "11 of 11 players remain" on the OP. Also, if there's 12 players, how many mafia and how many townies are there? The OP suggests 8 townies and 3 mafia, but that adds up to 11. Also, is role revealed after death, or merely which side you're on? | ||
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Zato-1
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On January 05 2010 19:47 Scamp wrote: I guess the evidence points to killing Vivi. What evidence are you talking about? If it's, "He accused me so I'll accuse him", that's not valid in my book- it leads to Town infighting most of the time, which benefits none but the mafia. If you get accused / suggested for lynching, it's just that. Defend yourself; if we deem you to be innocent / not worth lynching, you'll live. Otherwise, you'll die. Starting a public flame war with another player is not the correct reaction to being suggested for lynching. | ||
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On January 06 2010 10:46 Ace wrote: I agree, except how do you know they are town? :/ Also remember we've seen plenty of times where Townies themselves contributed to the deception and cluster fuck of the game (see RoL in any game he plays). I never said it was easy for the rest of us to determine whether he's lying or not. But, seen from the point of view of someone who IS town-aligned, I can see how that person would want to jump into the limelight and assume a leadership role. Lurking or erring on the side of caution will just let someone else take the reins of leadership- why risk having mafia set the floor for the discussion, when you can do it yourself? It makes sense to me. | ||
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On January 06 2010 09:18 Malongo wrote: -I really dont see the point in RoLs post and i dont like the fact that scamp came up just 10 minutes later to support his own defence. How did RoL knew scamp wasnt inactive? Why is RoL too lazy to read tonight but has his time to half defend scamp? Maybe this is just a coincidence but since we are lynching almost on blind i like RoL. At least we can autofire at scamp if RoL flips red. -For Judges claim its really not that important its not like he was a primary target for the town to lynch and if he is town alligned he can keep mafia guessing. Its something like claiming Im a cat. - Ls posting seem almost smart so im inclined to tell judge and L are town/side. I'm grasping here, but this is the only post so far that hints at someone being mafia. This someone being its author, Malongo. Why? First paragraph, he supports lynching RoL just because 'if he flips red, Scamp is also mafia'. I see no good reason to suspect RoL is mafia, and I don't see this chummy mafioso friendship between RoL and Scamp. In essence, his argument is, "I think if we kill RoL and he flips red, we'll get two birds in one stone! If we kill him and he's Townie, well then, too bad". How convenient does that sound if you're actually Mafia and you know RoL is not on your side? Third paragraph, he's saying L and Judge are trustworthy, and putting himself by their sides. He's basically creating two small groups; "Good Guys" which includes L, Judge and himself (He might even know L and Judge to be Townies; he can just kill them off at night and vindicate his good game sense, saying "I told you so!"), and "Bad Guys", which right now is just RoL, the person he wants to kill. I am in no way certain Malongo is mafia, but it does look like mafia mentality to me. Malongo, you've earned my vote. | ||
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On January 07 2010 01:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Zato, I agree kind of. In any other person I think it would be suspicious. I can agree L is saying some stuff I do agree with, however Judge is acting like a retard/mafia. The stuff he is doing just does not benefit us. You are actually essentially using the same mentality is him. Guilt by association, just because I said something about Scamp doesn't mean we are friends and on the same note just because he mentioned them I don't think they are mafia if he is, but you are saying we should kill him because then it casts doubt on the two others. This is the same logic he just used on me and Scamp which you just disagreed with. I honestly just think hes being a dumb townie. However that post is also from when I had not really said anything and Scamp hadn't really either. If we believe in lynching inactives to make mafia post or die then he chose two decent candidates, me having not posted anything and scamp having not really posted much. The only thing I posted was kind of in scamp's defense. I am sure Malongo would change his mind now when he rereads the thread. That post is from at least one page ago and kind of just looks like you are trying to save Judge from having made a bad move. I don't particularly care for Judge. He may very well be mafia. I just don't think it's a good decision to lynch him right now, because there are more likely mafia candidates. After night 1 comes and goes I hope to have a bit more clarity regarding him. | ||
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On January 07 2010 04:25 Ace wrote: I understand what you're trying to do it but it's not concrete enough. Judge is far more suspicious than Malongo posting about how he randomly thinks RoL is scummy. Well, this is how I see it. Judge says he has a plan. In my experience from previous games, when people say they have a plan but don't want to reveal it just yet, what they usually mean is, "I'm bluffing, so just trust me, m'kay?" I have little reason to believe it will be different this time. This does not, however, imply that Judge is mafia. He's been far too conspicuous, and for what? Wasting a DT role check? I wouldn't even check him. Anyone that comes up as anything other than a standard mafia thug could be the Godfather, so really, the best use for RCs is to try to confirm suspected mafia members. Everyone here seems to agree that he's either a) A medic, B) The Godfather, or C) A Vet trying to take a hit. So, yeah- chances are he won't show up as a regular mafia thug, and thus wouldn't even waste a DT check if the DT is smart. Or hey, Judge could be telling the truth and actually be a medic. Mafia will be happy to jump on the "He's generally suspicious, so lynch him" bandwagon in that case. I'm not saying he's innocent- that I can't know. What I am saying is, please think before casting your lynch vote. "He's generally suspicious because someone else said so" is not a good reason. "I think he's probably mafia based on the analysis I've made of his posts" IS a good enough reason. | ||
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On January 07 2010 05:55 Ace wrote: So because he MIGHT be a blue we shouldn't lynch him? That argument happens every game and I'm pretty sure we can all agree it's a useless platform to go on. No, I'm saying we shouldn't lynch him because I think others are more likely to be mafia. Like Malongo. On January 07 2010 05:55 Ace wrote: Well I'm going to keep my vote on him because my standard policy for standard games still applies here: lynch Day 1 roleclaimers unless they have some serious proof or compelling argument. Fine, be that way. I'm not so fanatically opposed to day 1 roleclaiming. Yet. I've yet to see how it plays out in this game. On January 07 2010 05:55 Ace wrote: Look at what Judge has just done. Hey I'm a Medic! this can't be proven or disproved by anyone I have a plan, trust me! why are we putting blind faith in him? Ok, so for the sake of argument, let's say he made a mistake. It's done. So now your plan is to execute him for it? To what end? I'm not convinced. | ||
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Zato-1
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On January 07 2010 07:07 Ace wrote: Zato that would be a really odd mistake wouldn't it? Judge has experience playing Mafia on this site and another. If he never made that post I would have been fine with a no lynch for today. A mistake as far as you're concerned is what I meant. Call it 'he did something stupid' or however you like- my point is, lynching Judge for doing something you'd rather he hadn't done seems overkill, unless you're really serious about deterring people from day 1 roleclaiming. Lynching people should predominantly be our way to deal with mafia, rather than our way of dealing with people who play in a way you don't like. If you still want to lynch him because you think he's mafia, fine. But really, lynching him for any other reason is just dumb. | ||
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Zato-1
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I explained my reasoning for suspecting Malongo. I was wrong about him. I have another suspicion for someone who could be mafia, but only after the night ends can that suspicion be cleared up. If my suspicion proves to be misplaced... I would look more carefully at the people who haven't made meaningful contributions to the Town. As to me and Judge... seriously. I've said I don't care about him, and I mean it. If it turns out he's been wasting our time all along on Day 2, I'll vote to lynch him. I'm going to go ahead and look at the times people submitted their votes, and the times they have been posting for now. I can hope to find people lurking at best, or nothing at worst- which is what we seem to have going for us right now as far as finding mafia is concerned. Off the top of my head, I'll look closely at Mikeymoo and nemY, iirc they weren't terribly active before day 1 ended. | ||
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On January 08 2010 11:31 Ace wrote: What town plan? You mean the one after I died that everyone conveniently decided not to follow? There wasn't a town plan unless you mean the stupidity you tried to sell the town on. And I didn't want everyone to claim to me. I asked for BG information which when I died made sense. Judge's request of don't kill him shouldn't be held in higher regards than anyone else begging not to die (see Malongo). So you're wrong on what I did last game and you still haven't even given good reasoning as to why Judge should have been blindly trusted in the first place. But it's ok, all this pales in comparison to what Zato-1 is going to go through. All seven levels of hell, because I didn't follow your plan blindly like a good little puppet? I'm sorry Ace, that course of action only works for me if I'm on the same team as you. And I'm not quite certain you're Town-aligned this game. But hey, as long as you attack me with well-constructed arguments (unlike your "I don't trust Judge, ergo autolynch"), I'll be happy to defend myself. It would be a waste to lynch me when there's actual mafia out there, especially if yet more leadership were to fall to you. | ||
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My original PM to Judge: "To: vx70GTOJudgexv [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Mini Mafia 2 Date: 1/6/10 06:03 I've played with you before, read your posts, and thoroughly considered your role claim. You may be mafia, in which case I'm condemning myself with this PM, but I think you're not. So, I just wanted to let you know. I'm the vigi." It's a risky move, because in case Judge was mafia, I'd probably die on night 1. This is the reply I got: "From: vx70GTOJudgexv [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: Mini Mafia 2 Date: 1/6/10 08:06 Thanks for trusting me. I am not in fact mafia. I will have a purpose for you in the coming days. Right now, play enough to avoid being lynched, but not enough to become a NK target. I need you alive N2 for my plan to work out." The fact that he wanted me to save my kill for night 2 made me a bit suspicious- maybe he just wanted me to save it while he killed me at night 1. At any rate, if mafia hit me on Night 1, it'd be very likely Judge would be responsible for it, so I sent another PM to L, incriminating Judge in case I died, just before Night 1 ended: PM TO L BEGINS HERE, SO MANY QUOTATION SIGNS MAY MAKE IT CONFUSING: "To: L [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Before night ends Date: 1/8/10 11:18 Hey L. I wanted to inform you of these PMs I had with Judge, in case I don't survive the night: "Thanks for trusting me. I am not in fact mafia. I will have a purpose for you in the coming days. Right now, play enough to avoid being lynched, but not enough to become a NK target. I need you alive N2 for my plan to work out. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I've played with you before, read your posts, and thoroughly considered your role claim. You may be mafia, in which case I'm condemning myself with this PM, but I think you're not. So, I just wanted to let you know. I'm the vigi." Starts with a reply from Judge, and my own message which initiated the conversation is below. As you can see, I roleclaim Vigilante to him (which I'm not, by the way), and he says he'll need me to hit something on Night 2. In case Judge is mafia, he'll likely take my bait and kill me on Night 1. So yeah. If I die, it's probably because of that PM, and because Judge is mafia." PM TO L ENDS HERE. If Judge was mafia, and L wasn't, I would die on night 1 and L would know Judge to be mafia. If Judge was Town and L was mafia, I wasn't putting myself on any more immediate danger- I lied to L, telling him I'm not a Vigilante, in order to look like a less desirable target for night 1. At this point, I'm fairly convinced Judge is Town-aligned. The fact that I lived through night 1 does little to confirm L, however, so he isn't confirmed yet as far as I'm concerned. I won't expect everyone to believe me or to begin trusting Judge now. But know that I do trust him now, and from this post onwards, you know my reasons for placing that trust; I thought he wasn't mafia on day 1, and after night 1 came and went, this hunch has gained some substance. Yes, he isn't 100% confirmed to be Town-aligned just yet. However, he certainly looks more Town-aligned to me than anyone else, at the moment. | ||
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On January 08 2010 21:21 Ace wrote: WHY DID YOU ROLECLAIM!? Because of all these accusations that are running around Town. You know, these people vote, too- I hate dealing behind closed doors and keeping everyone in the dark, and my posted PMs would only make people more restless unless I gave them closure about whether I am a Vigilante or not. So, it's all out in the open now. I was kind of expecting you'd be outraged at me and maybe push for my lynching today, but I just don't see a winning plan in what you're doing, Ace. At least, not for the Town. | ||
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On January 08 2010 21:39 Chezinu wrote: If you guys decide to lynch me, I just want yall to know that I'm suspicious of Ace. Same, actually. The only thing that casts a doubt in my mind, is the fact that he was leading the bandwagon to lynch someone OTHER than a person he'd know to be Town-aligned (Malongo) if he was mafia. Maybe Judge was a bigger target? Still a ballsy move if he's mafia. | ||
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As has been suggested by many, it's either Chez or Mikeymoo tonight. Based on their posts, I find Mikeymoo more likely to be mafia than Chez (he's only begun posting more since he was pointed at by Chez, and didn't have any defense to speak of). Besides, if he was Town, he'd have tried to give us useful last words before his death- since he knows he'll just flip red, he's not even bothering to do that. I find this post from L summarizes the game so far nicely- except for the fact that I did, in fact, think Malongo could've been mafia when I originally voted for him: On January 09 2010 10:47 L wrote:+ Show Spoiler + I said I meant nemy in that post. 10/10 for reading comprehension. As for contribution; I've introduced every relevant topic we've talked about thus far. What have you done, by contrast? Lash out in a 6 post spree? Not even going to bother wasting time on your stupidity. ______________ Okay, recap time: Recap time: Day 1: Judge claimed. I told him he was retarded for doing so. RoL/Ace led a charge to get Judge killed. I did not agree with killing him, and we ended up killing malongo because we couldn't switch votes to someone else. During day 1, Judge told me what was supposed to happen today and tomorrow, and I'll be honest; the plan doesn't have holes in it beyond the standard "someone didn't listen" which is what happened. We can run it tomorrow, but if chez really is the DT, I don't think he'll listen to it. Worst case scenario, we trade the DT for the godfather, best case scenario, we probably win the game. Granted judge's prior comments about how powerful a dt/medic combo would be in this format without a roleblocker, I can actually see him attempting to make this trade. That said, there's a slight modification of his plan which removes the possibility of a trade, which I would have presented during the day when it was revealed. RoL and Ace vote Judge, others vote malongo to stop judge from getting killed. An option to switch the kill target is given and passed on. Malongo dies, is green as most assumed. Most importantly, Heavonerth is killed. SOMEONE PLEASE GET A LIST OF ALL HIS POSTS Why is this important? Because it wasn't me, ace, rol, judge, zato or any of the 'content' posters Day 2: Chez claims he's the DT and has checked mikeymoo. People go batshit. Zato claims to be vig. People go double batshit. So we can examine this from two points of view: If you were mafia, how would you react to a bunch of town members claiming? Well, maybe you'd claim too! Throw a wrench into their gears. Alternatively, you could attack the credibility of their claims. This has happened for pretty much every claim thusfar. If you were town and people claimed, what would your reaction be? Well, you can be somewhat angry that a dt and medic 'revealed' themselves, because they would be likely to die, but at the same time given the volume of claims, its likely that some of these claimants are lying, and that one of them is probably going to get protected. But would you assume immediately that they had to be mafia? While one of the claimants might be mafia, it is highly unlikely that all 3 are. Zato is nearly 100% town; if he hits someone tonight, barring a medic protection, we can be certain its him. If someone objects, we kill them both and we net a mafia. Chez is a retard, but we can make sure he's telling the truth by having him check someone else; We can discuss who during the night because I'd rather not have people fishing in PMs to find out the roles beforehand. Judge is probably town too, but even if he's godfather, I can force him to die for no benefit if we go along with his plan. So overall, it seems like mikey is the best shot right now; If chez is lying, we vig him tonight. Mikeymoo had better be mafia, Chez, for your own sake. Then again, if he does flip red, figuring out my target for the night won't be so easy. | ||
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Day 2, Chez presented a very easy choice for the rest of us. Not much to say until that lynch was made so we could draw some conclusions. That said, thank you Chez for helping us lynch a mafia. This does not mean you're a confirmed Town member now, for the reason many posted before me- you could just be mafia making a sacrifice to gain Town trust. So now we're here, Night 2. I have a decision to make, and I'll inform you of my decision prior to sending Incognito the PM. I just want to check a few things before I make my decision. As to Medic actions for the night? Good targets would be, IMO: * Zato-1: Some strongly suspect me of being Town already, and after my hit tonight, I'll be in a good position to ask Townies for roleclaims via PM. * L: He's a player with name-brand recognition, people will take him seriously and more importantly will be influenced by him, and he's been unambiguously pro-Town in his posts so far, both in form and substance. On top of that, I think he probably is Town-aligned so far. I can't think of many others. As I mentioned previously, I also think Judge is on the Town side, but since his plan couldn't be completed, it'll be hard for him to garner much leadership in the days to come. There just doesn't seem to be a lot of trust in the Town for his figure. As to Chezinu, he might be a DT and thus warrant a medic cover. But based on his posts thus far, I don't think he'd merit it. He'd need to make a strong case for himself soon if he wanted to be on my medic cover list. DT check for tonight... You could check me, but you're gonna get Vigilante anyway, even if I was the Godfather. As I mentioned previously, the _only_ RC that you can be 100% sure is accurate is the one in which your target comes up as a vanilla mafia member. If I had to suggest a list of who I think could come up as vanilla mafia members in a RC, it'd be something like: *nemY *Vivi57 It's a weak hunch so if someone has a better idea, hopefully backed up with arguments, please let us know. And btw, this does not mean those two are my prime mafia suspects for killing tonight. My prime mafia suspect for tonight would probably be the Godfather, if I'm right about him. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler [1] + On August 20 2009 10:54 Ace wrote: o shit wtf 5 hours passed fast + Show Spoiler [2] + On August 20 2009 10:58 Ace wrote: can someone update me on everything that happened? I skimmed and saw people suggesting to lynch me? + Show Spoiler [3] + On August 20 2009 11:03 Ace wrote: ok so Sato snitched on himself lulz Medics aren't informed of prots? :/ That sucks. Vigi shouldn't hit anyone until they are solid the person is red. + Show Spoiler [4] + On August 20 2009 11:10 Ace wrote: :/ Well enough about me, what are we doing right now? + Show Spoiler [5] + On August 20 2009 11:23 Ace wrote: That pretty much ups Zeto's innocence. If he was really anti-town I doubt he'd want to cast a spotlight on his own Mafia ally. Especially in a game this small. Other than this there aren't even any patterns yet are there? Day 1 votes don't seem too telling. + Show Spoiler [6] + On August 20 2009 11:28 Ace wrote: Why not? Just because you accused someone doesn't hold weight. It would be one thing if you accused Chezinu and the town rallied behind you but you didn't have time to lynch. Then it would have been dumb to kill him. However that didn't happen. You accused him, but no one really went with it. By killing Chezinu you lose nothing since you didn't have any support in the first place. + Show Spoiler [7] + On August 20 2009 11:33 Ace wrote: I understand what you're saying but it just doesn't seem like a big deal to me. Chezinu seemed normal :/ Either way I guess the good news is no one super valuable has been killed yet (lol sorry Chez) + Show Spoiler [8] + On August 20 2009 11:36 Ace wrote: hold on a sec. Three of you voted for Inf out of no where with barely any reasoning except that he's throwing names out. That happens every mafia game. And Foolishness voted for Inf out of no where first with no reasoning. + Show Spoiler [9] + On August 20 2009 11:39 Ace wrote: well between you, Qatol and Pyrr something isn't right  1.) You voted for Inf 2.) Qatol votes for Inf and THEN posts a reason for it 3.) Pyrr votes for inf and also posts a reason Seems odd doesn't it? Especially since you're vote came in first before any reasonings. + Show Spoiler [10] + On August 20 2009 11:47 Ace wrote: no, that was more for Foolishness. As in 2 of you had reasons, he didn't. And he voted first of all 3 of you. + Show Spoiler [11] + On August 20 2009 11:53 Ace wrote: actually no, I've been watching. I always try to play in a way that avoids innocent deaths. You guys bandwagoned Inf to death. Switching around votes randomly just makes it easier for Mafia to bandwagon. Right now you, Qatol, Pyrr, and Zato are all suspects. Wouldn't you agree? + Show Spoiler [12] + On August 20 2009 11:56 Ace wrote: also Midori too, I didn't even realize he voted. + Show Spoiler [13] + On August 20 2009 12:02 Ace wrote: The Sato thing is over and done with but it does look good for you. I'm just saying you can't go around starting bandwagons, and when they turn out wrong act like it's just an oops moment. One of you guys has to pay. @Midori: Ok be suspicious of me but I didnt get a medic killed did I. + Show Spoiler [14] + On August 20 2009 12:06 Ace wrote: Which would actually be a good Mafia defense don't you think? "I can't be Mafia, my vote didn't even change anything!" + Show Spoiler [15] + On August 20 2009 12:12 Ace wrote: Qatol if Infundibulum was a Medic how could he safely make that claim to you? He'd never know your role + Show Spoiler [16] + On August 20 2009 12:18 Ace wrote: @Vivi: How has he sacrificed his own? You guys all said Sato pretty much told on himself so how is that relevant? + Show Spoiler [17] + On August 20 2009 12:21 Ace wrote: Your kidding right? You mean I haven't just started accusing everyone of being mafia all willy nilly is more like it. I've only focused on the mistakes that I've seen this game and the fact that some of you except Foolishness won't even embrace is it is suspicious. Pyrr had a so-so defense. But you and Qatol have pretty much ignored me. + Show Spoiler [18] + On August 20 2009 12:22 Ace wrote: we've only found 1, what do you want me to do magically pull one out my hat? + Show Spoiler [19] + On August 20 2009 12:26 Ace wrote: just because you did that doesn't mean he's town aligned. + Show Spoiler [20] + On August 20 2009 12:28 Ace wrote: Ok Foolishness, you see the wagon right? Seriously man. Just look at the voting thread. + Show Spoiler [21] + On August 20 2009 12:31 Ace wrote: Yea because it's the SAME people that got it wrong the first time. You mean to tell me you guys shouldn't be looking at your little group for the answers as to where the suspicions should go? + Show Spoiler [22] + On August 20 2009 12:32 Ace wrote: and look at the shit you did now + Show Spoiler [23] + You can easily categorize all of his posts in two categories: Chaff: He talks but essentially says nothing. Posts # 1 through 6, 8, 9, 10, 14, 15, 16, 19 and 20 are of this kind. Guilt Trips: Since he's basically committed to nothing all game, he weighs down on those who have done something whenever they were wrong. Posts #7, 11, 13, 17, 18, 21, 22 and 23 are of this kind. Ace's strategy was to sit back, feign activity, and pounce on Town members whenever they made a mistake. Now, take a look at Ace's posts in the current game: + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler [1] + On January 05 2010 21:24 Ace wrote: I agree that killing useless players is always a sound strategy when there isn't a better idea. Of course with the what, 15 or so mafia games played so far that list isn't exactly hard to populate at the moment: 1.) vivi57 2.) nemy 3.) RebirthofLegend And if any of you remember last game with the huge fuck ups of 3 players in particular the prime candidate for most detrimental to the town is RoL. He doesn't read and is a sheep. He's easily influenced and lets his emotions get to him and rarely if ever helps the town. Last game he didn't even realize he was being manipulated until the very end. Vivi57 and nemy, well you guys already know how terrible both of them are. It's just that RoL is far worse than either of them. + Show Spoiler [2] + On January 06 2010 02:25 Ace wrote: I actually think it was a rather bad move. It's an 11 player game with 3 Mafia that have a grand total of 1 KP: why in the world would there be 2 medics? This pretty much means judge is if innocent going to die Night 1 as there is 0 protection available if he really is a Medic. The only other circumstances come down to him being Mafia false role claiming Day 1, or he's the Vet hoping to absorb a hit. Either way I don't believe he's truly a medic because any real medic wouldn't have role claimed Day 1 in this format. + Show Spoiler [3] + On January 06 2010 10:43 Ace wrote: First of all one thing I need to make clear: I've seen medics openly claim Day 1 before in similar formats and almost every single time they end in disaster and the town loses. Now before I go into specifics of why, Judge I know you've played on Mafiascum. Assuming they are pretty good over there you've probably seen a lot of possibilities for broken cop/medic claims that is doable in this game. That's the ONLY thing that makes me even remotely think you can be a legit medic. If that wasn't possible I'd just call for your lynch. The reasoning that Mafia wouldn't fake claim a medic because it offers little gain is moot - everyone would come to the same reasoning you just did (logically) and agree the medic is obviously real because no mafia would sac himself. Which is wrong. Mafia KP is always 1. If we all come to that logical conclusion we in fact now have a Mafia who gained something for nothing because everyone thinks it's so stupid why would they do it. Now the other reason Medic role claims end in disaster is that if you're lying the real medic doesn't know if you're a Vet false claiming or a Mafia in disguise. Regardless they won't talk to you, the cop can't do anything once he RCs you if you aren't a Medic and you will most certainly be dead soon. I think Scamp said it pretty well earlier: This is a guessing game, but now it's no longer a blind guessing game from the Mafia side but a potential shot of information they shouldn't have this early. If you're gambit fails and you are really the medic and you die tonight, the game is going to be ridiculously hard for the town. You've got experience. You SHOULD know that with you not being able to be confirmed through medic protections we have no incentive to believe you at all. I'm inclined to say you're move is very anti-town at the moment. + Show Spoiler [4] + On January 06 2010 10:46 Ace wrote: I agree, except how do you know they are town? :/ Also remember we've seen plenty of times where Townies themselves contributed to the deception and cluster fuck of the game (see RoL in any game he plays). + Show Spoiler [5] + On January 07 2010 04:15 Ace wrote: I actually forgot about the VI thing. You really just sucked last game ^_^ + Show Spoiler [6] + On January 07 2010 04:25 Ace wrote: I understand what you're trying to do it but it's not concrete enough. Judge is far more suspicious than Malongo posting about how he randomly thinks RoL is scummy. + Show Spoiler [7] + On January 07 2010 04:35 Ace wrote: BTW - Judge is mafia, calling it now. + Show Spoiler [8] + On January 07 2010 05:55 Ace wrote: Well I'm going to keep my vote on him because my standard policy for standard games still applies here: lynch Day 1 roleclaimers unless they have some serious proof or compelling argument. Look at what Judge has just done. Hey I'm a Medic! this can't be proven or disproved by anyone I have a plan, trust me! why are we putting blind faith in him? So because he MIGHT be a blue we shouldn't lynch him? That argument happens every game and I'm pretty sure we can all agree it's a useless platform to go on. I said at the end of last mini mafia that anyone role claiming medic is destined to die. The Medic role generally wants to avoid getting hit even if he can protect himself. However he/she does it is whatever, but trying to attract fire would be unwise. Hence, Judge definitely is NOT a medic. No one has ever gotten a free pass for role claiming on Day 1 and those were almost always Detective claims. So why are we letting a Medic claim go? + Show Spoiler [9] + On January 07 2010 06:25 Ace wrote: what exceptional information? I really want to know this. + Show Spoiler [10] + On January 07 2010 06:31 Ace wrote: I actually don't even care what his plan is. The fact that he has a plan and hasn't said a word about it speaks volumes. This is an 11 player game - what plan does he really have that's so fragile but powerful that it needs to be stated on Day 2 instead of Day 1? How does that help the town? Secondly Townies shouldn't lie. Which means that if Judge is town he HAS TO BE A MEDIC. But in my last post I outlined that there is no possible way Judge can be a medic. Which means HE IS LYING. I'm not going through this "he might be blue" shit again. I've said in countless games I really don't give a shit about not lynching someone solely because they might have a power role. If you make a big gamble and you make a mistake you deserve to be at the center of the lynch discussion. + Show Spoiler [11] + On January 07 2010 07:07 Ace wrote: Zato that would be a really odd mistake wouldn't it? Judge has experience playing Mafia on this site and another. If he never made that post I would have been fine with a no lynch for today. + Show Spoiler [12] + On January 07 2010 07:35 Ace wrote: If he does have a plan there isn't any reason to wait an entire Day to tell us. This is really one of the big signs painting him as Mafia to me. There is no reason to hold back. Secondly we do not know if he's telling the truth because we can't confirm it. This is the same thing we go through every game where for some reason people assume someone must be telling the truth IF they have a plan. When? In most of our games townies that lied have led to great disasters. Townies shouldn't be trying to lie to deceive anyone because hey - thats exactly what the Mafia are doing! And using your last sentences if Judge is a Medic then WHY WOULD HE BE WANTING TO GET HIT. Because he isn't a Medic. Did the last game have this rule set? I don't think so. When I claimed DT last game I was essentially invulnerable except for the Mafia having the option of switching BGs. This game has no Mayor/Pardoners so that's out of the window. There is nothing to be gained from anyone claiming to be a Medic on Day 1. Ever. Chances are he's Vet or Mafia. That's it. Doesn't even matter if he's plain red or GF. If he's red and he gets checked by the DT that means by Day 2 the DT is immediately outed in a game where the Mafia KP doesn't change based on Judge dying. As for any other candidates no one else is even near as suspicious as Judge. Somehow Malongo is being talked about based on 1 post he threw out there when Judge has several and SHOULD be talked about even more. Where the hell is everyone else playing this game? + Show Spoiler [13] + On January 07 2010 07:37 Ace wrote: no I'm lynching him because I think he is Mafia. I was using the way he was playing as an argument for why I think he indeed is Mafia ^_^ And yes I'm strongly opposed to Day 1 role claims in most formats. + Show Spoiler [14] + On January 07 2010 08:59 Ace wrote: Last game I could be invincible. What are you talking about? lol have you forgotten already? It doesn't matter if you think he's a GF. The point is no one claims medic on Day 1. It's seriously a dumb move. It's like 4 pooling on an island map. There is nothing to gain. And this hey let's wait and see his plan along with this I can't tell you guys what my plan is mentality is screaming Mafia. And to top it all off now we want to lynch Malongo based on nothing? lol right. You guys are making PERFECT sense here. Answer me on how we are going to confirm judge is a medic. + Show Spoiler [15] + On January 07 2010 09:17 Ace wrote: Interesting. So Malongo who was fucking randomly plucked out of no where for doing nothing wrong is all of a sudden about to die? Really smart guys. Just look at that wagon go. + Show Spoiler [16] + On January 07 2010 09:23 Ace wrote: you must be a salesman in real life + Show Spoiler [17] + On January 07 2010 09:43 Ace wrote: Judge I always try to stop the town from killing people with random bandwagons. That's not a scum tell that's an ACE tell. That's probably the one trait that you can find I do consistently every game. Oh and argue with RoL too. + Show Spoiler [18] + On January 07 2010 09:45 Ace wrote: Does him being blue even matter? He hasn't done anything suspicious at all. And I don't have an argument for anyone else. Seriously Judge is the only person that seems suspect to me. + Show Spoiler [19] + On January 07 2010 09:46 Ace wrote: why would I want RoL killed again? How is him echoing me even relevant? :/ + Show Spoiler [20] + On January 07 2010 09:49 Ace wrote: how is stopping a bandwagon anti-town? You'll have to explain that one to me. I've done it every game regardless of what role I've had so you can't call it a tell. The second part was sarcasm. L I'm not switching to RoL unless there's a really convincing argument. + Show Spoiler [21] + On January 07 2010 09:52 Ace wrote: I can see just fine. Someone claims to be a Medic Day 1 and I'm supposed to just sit back and be like omg fine! Right Judge. Right ^_^ + Show Spoiler [22] + On January 07 2010 09:55 Ace wrote: @L: The only person I'd want to see die is Judge. @Judge: You forgot the other part: Is a townie trying to stop the town from lynching a player with no cause. You can read the game where I think BC almost got MikeyMoo lynched and I stuck my neck out to save him. Both of us were innocent. + Show Spoiler [23] + On January 07 2010 10:01 Ace wrote: indeed L. Except I didn't pick because neither of them seem more fishy to me than Judge. + Show Spoiler [24] + On January 07 2010 10:02 Ace wrote: I've done it more than once. I do it ALL THE TIME. If you want we can pause the discussion and make a poll. You can also PM everyone that has played past Mafia games. They'll all tell you I stop town bandwagons from killing innocents regardless of my role. + Show Spoiler [25] + On January 07 2010 10:08 Ace wrote: But you made it sound earlier that defending innocents is a Mafia trait when I just proved to you that it is not. Hence why I called you out on it. You can't say me defending Malongo makes one or both of us scummy. There is no hole in my logic because I already admitted I do it regardless of my role. + Show Spoiler [26] + On January 07 2010 10:14 Ace wrote: thats nice Judge. But like I've said before you shouldn't be surprised I'm not going for fake Medic claims. + Show Spoiler [27] + On January 07 2010 10:22 Ace wrote: L if you're concerned about RoL why isn't anyone else voting for him? (besides me of course) + Show Spoiler [28] + On January 07 2010 10:32 Ace wrote: That voting thread sure is something else. + Show Spoiler [29] + On January 07 2010 10:48 Ace wrote: I know L is laughing very hard right now + Show Spoiler [30] + On January 07 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: stop grasping at straws. I haven't even spoken to Chezinu all game. + Show Spoiler [31] + On January 07 2010 12:48 Ace wrote: ? are you serious? so you just flip flop voted multiple times, and now if Malongo dies and flips innocent you can say he had a chance to "save himself". lol interesting really. + Show Spoiler [32] + + Show Spoiler [33] + On January 07 2010 13:09 Ace wrote: I said this a few pages back. DT/Medic is also somewhat busted by GF roles, but only somewhat. And the reason you need DT/Medic is because without both Mafia is just going to run wild killing everyone and people will be scared to post knowing they have no protection. + Show Spoiler [34] + + Show Spoiler [35] + On January 07 2010 13:18 Ace wrote: Not at all. More like the random out of the blue bandwagon that you guys put on Malongo was the wrong call. + Show Spoiler [36] + On January 07 2010 13:25 Ace wrote: I don't. 5 out of 12 possible votes and not one of them Mafia? I highly doubt it. Either way I'm going to start going back through this whole debacle. But right now my top suspects: Judge, obviously ^_^ Scamp and Chezinu because of the last minute voting and flip flopping Zato-1 because he was the one who proposed lynching Malongo in the midst of the Judge debacle + Show Spoiler [37] + On January 07 2010 13:37 Ace wrote: I'd actually rather we have had a no lynch. I was already against the Malongo band wagon from jump and since he didn't really do much his death wasn't going to reveal anything major. Well now that he's dead everyone that voted for him is rightfully going to be questioned. + Show Spoiler [38] + On January 08 2010 09:40 Ace wrote: I like how a long time before that I said killing malongo was a bandwagon move and we should have just killed Judge instead. It's ok though, if I survive tonight there's going to be hell on Day 2. + Show Spoiler [39] + On January 08 2010 10:14 Ace wrote: The bandwagon at Judge was very justified: A guy claiming medic on day with a "wait and let me live" approach vs a guy who got one of his posts randomly plucked out of no where and accused. Yes, the votes against Judge were so unjustified. Either way Day 2 someone is going to have to answer some tough questions. + Show Spoiler [40] + On January 08 2010 10:28 Ace wrote: I didn't want to lynch you. L said because you're a bad player you should be lynched. I said because Judge was lying and because he made a bad play he should be lynched. They both kept their votes on Malongo. L said I should switch my votes to you and I flat out told him that wasn't going to happen. The game I claimed DT L said it was a terrible play. Judge claims Medic Day 1 and L says no, no way a Mafia would do that. Seriously L, why the double standard? + Show Spoiler [41] + On January 08 2010 11:31 Ace wrote: What town plan? You mean the one after I died that everyone conveniently decided not to follow? There wasn't a town plan unless you mean the stupidity you tried to sell the town on. And I didn't want everyone to claim to me. I asked for BG information which when I died made sense. Judge's request of don't kill him shouldn't be held in higher regards than anyone else begging not to die (see Malongo). So you're wrong on what I did last game and you still haven't even given good reasoning as to why Judge should have been blindly trusted in the first place. But it's ok, all this pales in comparison to what Zato-1 is going to go through. + Show Spoiler [42] + On January 08 2010 12:04 Ace wrote: more leadership? lol nice I didn't even know I was a leader yet. The 5 of you that voted malongo off are all top suspects. Especially when ya know, you were the one who started the bs bandwagon and the others hopped on to it with lame excuses. + Show Spoiler [43] + On January 08 2010 20:51 Ace wrote: this is all interesting. I guess tomorrow I'll have to make a long post about Zato-1, Judge, MM and Chezinu. However at this point Chez I'm pretty sure you know you're like, almost guaranteed a lynch (seriously after seeing judge RC the first day and take shit, you'd have to AT LEAST be able to find a way to convince people). Also the other reason I don't really believe you is because on the Day 1 vote you flip flopped so many times that you came off as Mafia. Seriously, why would you flip flop if you wanted to save Malongo or Judge? Just abstain if that's the case. And yea I read your PM Chezinu, but I'm not helping you get MikeyMoo killed unless you really flip DT. Either way it's really funny how every single time someone is "on the radar" ANOTHER person comes from left field with some new info and knocks shit out of whack. After the Chezinu/MM debacle is cleared up we'll move on to past transgressions. + Show Spoiler [44] + On January 08 2010 21:21 Ace wrote: WHY DID YOU ROLECLAIM!? + Show Spoiler [45] + On January 08 2010 22:04 Ace wrote: Yea I was (still am) outraged at you. But there was no need to role claim. I mean seriously, is everyone going to roleclaim now when we have a GF in the game? Come on man, you just saw Chez and his nonsense. I don't even think you would have gotten put on the chopping block today since chez just pulled that stunt and that path gives us a faster way to finding Mafia. + Show Spoiler [46] + On January 08 2010 22:06 Ace wrote: how many times do I have to tell you if you didn't pull that stupid voting stunt on Day 1 I would have been more inclined to believe you? You said you didn't want to kill Judge or Malongo, told them to save themselves yet kept your vote flip flopping instead of simply abstaining. If you saw someone do that do you honestly think you'd believe they were legit? + Show Spoiler [47] + On January 09 2010 05:07 Ace wrote: Vigi isn't exactly easy to confirm, check the rules ^_^ But either way it only looks bad because Chezinu DT claimed first. No point in mass roleclaims on the Second Day of the game when there isn't even anything to panic about. + Show Spoiler [48] + On January 09 2010 14:30 Ace wrote: Because Judge can't be confirmed. They've been giving us this runaround for 2 days and get upset when we ask for it and we're the ones being labeled as irrational. I'll try and make a post before I get out of here tonight, but Chez should definitely be lynched first unless we all come to the consensus MM is definitely scum. At this point it's one guy's word against the other and Chez's play before he claimed was scummy. And like I said before if he didn't do that I would have believed him. As for Judge being town I still don't believe that. Zato-1 on the other hand I do believe. + Show Spoiler [49] + On January 09 2010 14:35 Ace wrote: I'm active enough? Seriously though I've been in meetings and shit. And tomorrow from 12-9 ET (cringe) I'll be tutoring kids. Hopefully they let me use the internet. + Show Spoiler [50] + On January 09 2010 14:40 Ace wrote: You've told me I'm Mafia about 7 times already. But you can keep screaming it for your own pleasure ^_^ + Show Spoiler [51] + On January 09 2010 15:53 Ace wrote: Ok I understand why you're for killing MM...but how does that confirm Judge or even L? + Show Spoiler [52] + On January 09 2010 20:30 Ace wrote: Oh...oh my god! Brilliant! Surely the DT wouldn't think that the fact you purposely claimed Medic to draw an investigation to yourself and a GF isn't in the game you'd never even attempt to pull a stunt! So basically like I said the instant you "came up with such a brilliant plan" you were just lying and wasting everyone's time. Yeah, that's a lot of posts alright. But, I've done some work and categorized them for you again: Chaff posts where he makes comments and maybe triest to set a mood or give an idea of his thoughts: Posts #1 through 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 35, 40, 41, 44, 45, 46, 47, 49, 50, 51 and 52. Posts with content: Posts #34, 36, 37, 38, 42 and 43 are essentially guilt trips; someone did a mistake, and he's calling them out on it. Posts #8, 13, 15, 18, 23 and 39 are posts in which he justifies attempts to lynch Judge for his day 1 roleclaiming. Now for the analysis: - There's nothing suspicious about making Chaff posts. Everyone makes them, some more than others. - Guilt Trip posts are of a different kind; when the Town makes a mistake, instead of trying to pick up the broken pieces and move on to the next course of action, Ace focuses on kicking the parties responsible for the mistake while they're down. This is done to lower Town morale and attempt to make Town players bitter, and recriminate themselves about who's responsible for what- while he sits back and watches. - His posts against Judge are probably just the fact that his dislike for day 1 roleclaiming happened to coincide with a daring Town initiative for getting organized. Two birds with one stone there (personal satisfaction & lynching a potential Town organizer), and he can just blame his zeal against day 1 roleclaiming for persecuting Judge. - What seems to be the connecting trend between Ace's posts? The only thing he's actually committed to, was persecuting Judge, and for a pretty bad reason at that ("I think he's lying about being a Medic, so he has to be mafia"). Other than that, he's content to sit back, make a lot of posts with little substance, and punish Town members when they make a wrong call. Does this seem like a game-winning plan for Town to you? 'cause it looks a lot more like a mafia trying to sow dissent among the Town while appearing to be active, to me. For this reason, tonight I am going to kill Ace. | ||
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1. Do you still claim you're the Detective? 2. Did you role check nemY? If so, did you get a mafia result? | ||
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We've already established Mikeymoo was mafia. If nemY is mafia as well, then they clearly chose the third and final mafia member to be the godfather. How would they choose? Well, they'd probably choose the person who would be under most scrutiny- a kind of player DTs are more likely to check in any given game. By now, you can probably tell I'm talking about Ace. Much better to shield him from RCs than another mafia member, usually. So, I could be wrong, but I'm still going to kill Ace tonight. It saves me the hassle of having to convince people to kill him democratically, which will be far easier to do with nemY on Day 3. Even if Chezinu ends up being the detective to end them all, he still can't figure out who the godfather is through a RC, and this night, I'm betting on Ace. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Chezinu: (3) Ace vx70GTOJudgexv mikeymoo mikeymoo: (6) RebirthOfLeGend Chezinu Scamp Vivi57 Zato-1 L vx70GTOJudgexv: (1) nemY Note how the only people who don't vote for mikeymoo are Ace, mikeymoo, nemY and Judge. Judge I can sort of understand given how pissed off he was at Chezinu for screwing up his plan. Same for mikeymoo, usually people won't vote to lynch themselves. nemY and Ace look suspicious, again; the argument to lynch mikeymoo first and Chez second (assuming mikeymoo didn't turn out red) was sound, from the Town's point of view. | ||
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As to DTs getting results instantly: I think it's fine, really. As to medics protecting themselves: I think it's better if they were unable to do this. Some thought that responding to role claims so favorably was uncharacteristic of the Town. The way I see it- the Town needs leadership and a plan if they want to win. Sitting back, chilling and waiting to see what happens is lazy / sloppy Town play, in my book. Worst case scenario for Town is when they're pointing the finger at each other while mafia lie back and don't commit to anything- which is exactly the situation Ace and Pyrr engineered on that other game I quoted, Mini Mafia 2. For this reason, I was relatively sympathetic to bold moves like Judge and Chezinu's roleclaim. For me, the turning point happened shortly after Day 2 came- we were two Townies down and with no good leads for mafia, and the Town members had begun to get restless. Losing our temper promised to be bad, which is why I roleclaimed shortly thereafter- besides, the timing and my role made it relatively inexpensive to give myself away. I'd use my special ability before mafia could take it away from me. Then there was Chezinu's DT checks. He screwed up Judge's plan, but was so ridiculously effective at uncovering mafia, he took care of pretty much everything but the godfather. On a side note, I'm glad I was right about Ace- after starting a misguided bandwagon on Malongo, getting a second innocent killed would've looked bad ^^; | ||
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On January 12 2010 11:02 Scamp wrote: I guess the biggest question is: why did Chez pick Mikey and Nemy to check? They must've looked the most suspicious from his research, which included their posts in the main thread plus his role fishing PMs. | ||
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Chile4253 Posts
 Very good analysis, I'll re-read it and pages 4-9 to see if I can learn a thing or two :p | ||
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