• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 17:45
CET 22:45
KST 06:45
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Finals Preview: Sweet Victory!12[ASL22] Ro4 Preview: Mirror Mirror6[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: Within Reach5[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy11[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver5
Community News
Weekly Cups (October 19-25): Clem triples first in 5.0.175Evil Geniuses - shutting down20ISSL (IntoTheTV x SOOP SC2 League): Premier6Weekly Cups (October 12-18): 5.0.17 era begins1[$1250] International ShieldBattery League92
StarCraft 2
General
No more SC2 streamers on team liquid? Weekly Cups (October 19-25): Clem triples first in 5.0.17 How do you feel about the mass reverts in the 5.0.17 PTR? Evil Geniuses - shutting down REPORT: StarCraft 2: Remastered In Development
Tourneys
RSL goes to London! 2026 Offline Finals Nov 21-22 ISSL (IntoTheTV x SOOP SC2 League): Premier Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20) RSL 2026 Offline Finals LCQ Sign-Ups Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament
Strategy
[H] ZvP Mid-Late Game: Stalkers Collossi HT
Custom Maps
Simple Questions/Answers [G] How to playtest arcade maps [A] Nemrods 1/4 players
External Content
Mutation # 549 Endless Sparkles The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 548 Shining Bright Mutation # 547 Temple Of Terror
Brood War
General
Bot on ladder SCHNAIL now supports Remastered Rollback Netcode in Brood War BW General Discussion [Megathread] Daily Funny Videos
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues [Women's StarCraft] MonstarZ vs BA 2026-10-30 Star Con San Diego 2026 Small VOD Thread 2.0
Strategy
50,000-Word Terran Builds Memo 2026-10-22 Cliff Jump Revisited (1 in a 1000 strategy) Simple Questions, Simple Answers
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Armies of Exigo - YesYes? General RTS Discussion Thread
Dota 2
Dota 2 Champions League Season 3 Begins April 25!
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread R I P Patrick Stewart Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine
Fan Clubs
Reynor Fan Club The Flash Fan Club Serral Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Anime Discussion Thread Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece
Sports
TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Football (Soccer) Thread MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
Why I built Repalyzer (1.1.…
BlueStar
Innovate or Game Over?
TrAiDoS
ShieldBattery on Mac
Kraekkling
[ASL22] Ro4 Day1 Ticket Giv…
bITt.mAN
Can Bots Beat Pros?? Starcr…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 8755 users

US Politics Mega-thread - Page 6045

Forum Index > General Forum
Post a Reply
Prev 1 6043 6044 6045
Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.


If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24459 Posts
4 hours ago
#120881
On October 31 2026 00:36 FlaShFTW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 30 2026 21:45 GreenHorizons wrote:
Are Democrats' leads outside the margin of error in the battleground states? Meaning statistically speaking do the polls have to be "wrong" for Democrats to lose?

I don't know how any election cycle for the foreseeable future is going to be easier for them than this one though, so they should/need to do pretty well regardless.

North Carolina and Georgia are the only truly safe Dem seats. Ohio is lean. Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Maine are all D-tilts while Iowa is an R-tilt and Nebraska and South Carolina are R-leans.

Bombshell Emerson poll from Kansas though shows 50-47 +3 for Dems. Top rates pollster, poll looks good and strong and not out of left field. Comparatively, Washington Post pushed a Kansas +10 D??? Yeah... not so sure about that.

Quantus Insights (heavily R biased pollster) shows Texas in a dead heat today. We'll see if any other polls make it out today but likely these are some of the last polls that will be published.

Forgive my ignorance, but that means other than NC and GA Dems could lose the rest without the polls being "wrong"?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
LightSpectra
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States3459 Posts
4 hours ago
#120882
On October 31 2026 01:49 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 01:29 dyhb wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 31 2026 00:58 Billyboy wrote:
You can’t have a logic based argument for Trump and his admin at this point. Every reason they said they were voting for him he has either done the opposite (in most cases) or just a very shitty but really expensive version of it.

Like what are his big accomplishments, having a ufc on the white house lawn. Renaming things, at great expense, some in expensive legal fights if he put his own name on it rather than “America” (and honestly what kind of loser names shit after themselves). Spending an absolute shit load on deportations that have not remotely moved the needle on illegals in the US. Started a war with a vastly inferior opponent and not winning but has spent 50bn now and raised the prices of basically everything because of transport costs going through the roof, not to mention directly at the pumps for all Americans. I guess getting Maduro was a win for a few oil companies, but made no difference to Venezuelans, so not reducing the migrants, nor a win for democracy. Given various lifelines to Russia well hurting American made arms sales in the short and long term. Increased the taxes paid by Americans through tariffs and raising costs of basically everything, with no noticeable bump in American manufacturing. Being pro data centers. Using government powers to cancel people he doesn’t like. Taking away state rights.

It’s clear why they have to pretend like trans are taking over and that’s really bad or something. Because whatever it was that they used to care about (or said they cared about) he has done the opposite or a shit job of.

If you're a Trump supporter I think his use of ICE is exactly what they wanted, so from a purely logical position, they'll have that to write home about because it's going to be mostly about the culture war (though the actual amount of deportees is tiny so that doesn't actually support their argument in favor of Trump).

Everything else has been pretty stupid though.
Ironically, he dropped illegal immigration through the southern border so quickly in his first year that it's forgotten for the midterms. (It isn't even a case to the voter, since he'll still be a lame duck president for another two years, and this was through executive action).

I only wonder if a future Democratic president will have the good sense to not let it get as bad as it did under Biden.


The border will always be hyped up as really bad by the republican machine when there is a democrat president, and as really good when there is a republican one. It doesn't really matter what is actually happening at that border, or what the president does about it.

Reality gets shaped in the newsrooms and troll farms, not at the border.


We got an allegedly "closed border" and mass deportations like Republicans wanted but all of the things they promised would come with those (higher wages, lower crime, shorter waitlists at hospitals, etc.) turned out to be complete lies.

I fully expect goldfish-brained voters will fall for it again next election, but it would be nice if the median voter finally learned their lesson that the Epstein class will keep plundering and looting the economy no matter how many brown people crossed the border today.
"don't try to pull a LightSpectra-Trumper"
TL+ Member
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10597 Posts
4 hours ago
#120883
On October 31 2026 02:04 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 00:36 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 30 2026 21:45 GreenHorizons wrote:
Are Democrats' leads outside the margin of error in the battleground states? Meaning statistically speaking do the polls have to be "wrong" for Democrats to lose?

I don't know how any election cycle for the foreseeable future is going to be easier for them than this one though, so they should/need to do pretty well regardless.

North Carolina and Georgia are the only truly safe Dem seats. Ohio is lean. Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Maine are all D-tilts while Iowa is an R-tilt and Nebraska and South Carolina are R-leans.

Bombshell Emerson poll from Kansas though shows 50-47 +3 for Dems. Top rates pollster, poll looks good and strong and not out of left field. Comparatively, Washington Post pushed a Kansas +10 D??? Yeah... not so sure about that.

Quantus Insights (heavily R biased pollster) shows Texas in a dead heat today. We'll see if any other polls make it out today but likely these are some of the last polls that will be published.

Forgive my ignorance, but that means other than NC and GA Dems could lose the rest without the polls being "wrong"?

That's a very interesting question that requires a lot of nuance and deeper dive into what polls are actually saying. If we assume that ANY possibility within margin of error is possible, then yes, only GA and NC are "safe" Dem wins.

However, if we assume polls are not wrong and are also reasonably accurate for a forecast, then states like Texas, Maine, and Michigan should go blue because the leader is sitting at 49-50% consistently in the polls, which means even if undecideds break massively for the underdog, the leader should still win. This means that a state like Ohio, which even though the polls show the Dem candidate with a bigger lead than the aforementioned states (Brown is leading by an average of 3-4 points per poll), his numbers are only at 47-48%, meaning there's a larger undecided population that could potentially still swing to the Republican candidate and therefore causing an upset.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10597 Posts
4 hours ago
#120884
On October 31 2026 02:14 LightSpectra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 01:49 Simberto wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:29 dyhb wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 31 2026 00:58 Billyboy wrote:
You can’t have a logic based argument for Trump and his admin at this point. Every reason they said they were voting for him he has either done the opposite (in most cases) or just a very shitty but really expensive version of it.

Like what are his big accomplishments, having a ufc on the white house lawn. Renaming things, at great expense, some in expensive legal fights if he put his own name on it rather than “America” (and honestly what kind of loser names shit after themselves). Spending an absolute shit load on deportations that have not remotely moved the needle on illegals in the US. Started a war with a vastly inferior opponent and not winning but has spent 50bn now and raised the prices of basically everything because of transport costs going through the roof, not to mention directly at the pumps for all Americans. I guess getting Maduro was a win for a few oil companies, but made no difference to Venezuelans, so not reducing the migrants, nor a win for democracy. Given various lifelines to Russia well hurting American made arms sales in the short and long term. Increased the taxes paid by Americans through tariffs and raising costs of basically everything, with no noticeable bump in American manufacturing. Being pro data centers. Using government powers to cancel people he doesn’t like. Taking away state rights.

It’s clear why they have to pretend like trans are taking over and that’s really bad or something. Because whatever it was that they used to care about (or said they cared about) he has done the opposite or a shit job of.

If you're a Trump supporter I think his use of ICE is exactly what they wanted, so from a purely logical position, they'll have that to write home about because it's going to be mostly about the culture war (though the actual amount of deportees is tiny so that doesn't actually support their argument in favor of Trump).

Everything else has been pretty stupid though.
Ironically, he dropped illegal immigration through the southern border so quickly in his first year that it's forgotten for the midterms. (It isn't even a case to the voter, since he'll still be a lame duck president for another two years, and this was through executive action).

I only wonder if a future Democratic president will have the good sense to not let it get as bad as it did under Biden.


The border will always be hyped up as really bad by the republican machine when there is a democrat president, and as really good when there is a republican one. It doesn't really matter what is actually happening at that border, or what the president does about it.

Reality gets shaped in the newsrooms and troll farms, not at the border.


We got an allegedly "closed border" and mass deportations like Republicans wanted but all of the things they promised would come with those (higher wages, lower crime, shorter waitlists at hospitals, etc.) turned out to be complete lies.

I fully expect goldfish-brained voters will fall for it again next election, but it would be nice if the median voter finally learned their lesson that the Epstein class will keep plundering and looting the economy no matter how many brown people crossed the border today.

Dems have always had a messaging issue. I do think they've been far better about it this year, though that's in part for just how bad Republicans have been where they're basically on their knees groveling for their base to turnout to the election. I mean JD Vance literally was begging to give them another chance (lol).

I think leading Dem figures like El-Sayed, Mamdani, Talarico, and Ossoff are charismatic and doing a pretty solid job overall of leading stronger and more positive message from Democrats. Unfortunately, the former 2 are Muslim which hurts them nationally.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
dyhb
Profile Joined August 2021
United States850 Posts
4 hours ago
#120885
On October 31 2026 01:49 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 01:29 dyhb wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 31 2026 00:58 Billyboy wrote:
You can’t have a logic based argument for Trump and his admin at this point. Every reason they said they were voting for him he has either done the opposite (in most cases) or just a very shitty but really expensive version of it.

Like what are his big accomplishments, having a ufc on the white house lawn. Renaming things, at great expense, some in expensive legal fights if he put his own name on it rather than “America” (and honestly what kind of loser names shit after themselves). Spending an absolute shit load on deportations that have not remotely moved the needle on illegals in the US. Started a war with a vastly inferior opponent and not winning but has spent 50bn now and raised the prices of basically everything because of transport costs going through the roof, not to mention directly at the pumps for all Americans. I guess getting Maduro was a win for a few oil companies, but made no difference to Venezuelans, so not reducing the migrants, nor a win for democracy. Given various lifelines to Russia well hurting American made arms sales in the short and long term. Increased the taxes paid by Americans through tariffs and raising costs of basically everything, with no noticeable bump in American manufacturing. Being pro data centers. Using government powers to cancel people he doesn’t like. Taking away state rights.

It’s clear why they have to pretend like trans are taking over and that’s really bad or something. Because whatever it was that they used to care about (or said they cared about) he has done the opposite or a shit job of.

If you're a Trump supporter I think his use of ICE is exactly what they wanted, so from a purely logical position, they'll have that to write home about because it's going to be mostly about the culture war (though the actual amount of deportees is tiny so that doesn't actually support their argument in favor of Trump).

Everything else has been pretty stupid though.
Ironically, he dropped illegal immigration through the southern border so quickly in his first year that it's forgotten for the midterms. (It isn't even a case to the voter, since he'll still be a lame duck president for another two years, and this was through executive action).

I only wonder if a future Democratic president will have the good sense to not let it get as bad as it did under Biden.


The border will always be hyped up as really bad by the republican machine when there is a democrat president, and as really good when there is a republican one. It doesn't really matter what is actually happening at that border, or what the president does about it.

Reality gets shaped in the newsrooms and troll farms, not at the border.
I know they'll bend reality to fit political motives and they'll always be able to fool some part of the electorate. You still gotta know the facts.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany12065 Posts
4 hours ago
#120886
On October 31 2026 02:24 FlaShFTW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 02:14 LightSpectra wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:49 Simberto wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:29 dyhb wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 31 2026 00:58 Billyboy wrote:
You can’t have a logic based argument for Trump and his admin at this point. Every reason they said they were voting for him he has either done the opposite (in most cases) or just a very shitty but really expensive version of it.

Like what are his big accomplishments, having a ufc on the white house lawn. Renaming things, at great expense, some in expensive legal fights if he put his own name on it rather than “America” (and honestly what kind of loser names shit after themselves). Spending an absolute shit load on deportations that have not remotely moved the needle on illegals in the US. Started a war with a vastly inferior opponent and not winning but has spent 50bn now and raised the prices of basically everything because of transport costs going through the roof, not to mention directly at the pumps for all Americans. I guess getting Maduro was a win for a few oil companies, but made no difference to Venezuelans, so not reducing the migrants, nor a win for democracy. Given various lifelines to Russia well hurting American made arms sales in the short and long term. Increased the taxes paid by Americans through tariffs and raising costs of basically everything, with no noticeable bump in American manufacturing. Being pro data centers. Using government powers to cancel people he doesn’t like. Taking away state rights.

It’s clear why they have to pretend like trans are taking over and that’s really bad or something. Because whatever it was that they used to care about (or said they cared about) he has done the opposite or a shit job of.

If you're a Trump supporter I think his use of ICE is exactly what they wanted, so from a purely logical position, they'll have that to write home about because it's going to be mostly about the culture war (though the actual amount of deportees is tiny so that doesn't actually support their argument in favor of Trump).

Everything else has been pretty stupid though.
Ironically, he dropped illegal immigration through the southern border so quickly in his first year that it's forgotten for the midterms. (It isn't even a case to the voter, since he'll still be a lame duck president for another two years, and this was through executive action).

I only wonder if a future Democratic president will have the good sense to not let it get as bad as it did under Biden.


The border will always be hyped up as really bad by the republican machine when there is a democrat president, and as really good when there is a republican one. It doesn't really matter what is actually happening at that border, or what the president does about it.

Reality gets shaped in the newsrooms and troll farms, not at the border.


We got an allegedly "closed border" and mass deportations like Republicans wanted but all of the things they promised would come with those (higher wages, lower crime, shorter waitlists at hospitals, etc.) turned out to be complete lies.

I fully expect goldfish-brained voters will fall for it again next election, but it would be nice if the median voter finally learned their lesson that the Epstein class will keep plundering and looting the economy no matter how many brown people crossed the border today.

Dems have always had a messaging issue. I do think they've been far better about it this year, though that's in part for just how bad Republicans have been where they're basically on their knees groveling for their base to turnout to the election. I mean JD Vance literally was begging to give them another chance (lol).

I think leading Dem figures like El-Sayed, Mamdani, Talarico, and Ossoff are charismatic and doing a pretty solid job overall of leading stronger and more positive message from Democrats. Unfortunately, the former 2 are Muslim which hurts them nationally.


Messaging is really easy when your side controls most of the media.

All social media and a lot of other media is owned by billionaires, and billionaires tend to be in favor of the party that is against taxing billionaires. They can and do use their power to amplify the voices that agree with them. Editing is incredibly powerful. You can make a moron sound intelligent and an intelligent person sound like a moron through selective editing.
LightSpectra
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States3459 Posts
Last Edited: 2026-10-30 17:44:23
4 hours ago
#120887
On October 31 2026 02:30 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 02:24 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 31 2026 02:14 LightSpectra wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:49 Simberto wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:29 dyhb wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 31 2026 00:58 Billyboy wrote:
You can’t have a logic based argument for Trump and his admin at this point. Every reason they said they were voting for him he has either done the opposite (in most cases) or just a very shitty but really expensive version of it.

Like what are his big accomplishments, having a ufc on the white house lawn. Renaming things, at great expense, some in expensive legal fights if he put his own name on it rather than “America” (and honestly what kind of loser names shit after themselves). Spending an absolute shit load on deportations that have not remotely moved the needle on illegals in the US. Started a war with a vastly inferior opponent and not winning but has spent 50bn now and raised the prices of basically everything because of transport costs going through the roof, not to mention directly at the pumps for all Americans. I guess getting Maduro was a win for a few oil companies, but made no difference to Venezuelans, so not reducing the migrants, nor a win for democracy. Given various lifelines to Russia well hurting American made arms sales in the short and long term. Increased the taxes paid by Americans through tariffs and raising costs of basically everything, with no noticeable bump in American manufacturing. Being pro data centers. Using government powers to cancel people he doesn’t like. Taking away state rights.

It’s clear why they have to pretend like trans are taking over and that’s really bad or something. Because whatever it was that they used to care about (or said they cared about) he has done the opposite or a shit job of.

If you're a Trump supporter I think his use of ICE is exactly what they wanted, so from a purely logical position, they'll have that to write home about because it's going to be mostly about the culture war (though the actual amount of deportees is tiny so that doesn't actually support their argument in favor of Trump).

Everything else has been pretty stupid though.
Ironically, he dropped illegal immigration through the southern border so quickly in his first year that it's forgotten for the midterms. (It isn't even a case to the voter, since he'll still be a lame duck president for another two years, and this was through executive action).

I only wonder if a future Democratic president will have the good sense to not let it get as bad as it did under Biden.


The border will always be hyped up as really bad by the republican machine when there is a democrat president, and as really good when there is a republican one. It doesn't really matter what is actually happening at that border, or what the president does about it.

Reality gets shaped in the newsrooms and troll farms, not at the border.


We got an allegedly "closed border" and mass deportations like Republicans wanted but all of the things they promised would come with those (higher wages, lower crime, shorter waitlists at hospitals, etc.) turned out to be complete lies.

I fully expect goldfish-brained voters will fall for it again next election, but it would be nice if the median voter finally learned their lesson that the Epstein class will keep plundering and looting the economy no matter how many brown people crossed the border today.

Dems have always had a messaging issue. I do think they've been far better about it this year, though that's in part for just how bad Republicans have been where they're basically on their knees groveling for their base to turnout to the election. I mean JD Vance literally was begging to give them another chance (lol).

I think leading Dem figures like El-Sayed, Mamdani, Talarico, and Ossoff are charismatic and doing a pretty solid job overall of leading stronger and more positive message from Democrats. Unfortunately, the former 2 are Muslim which hurts them nationally.


Messaging is really easy when your side controls most of the media.

All social media and a lot of other media is owned by billionaires, and billionaires tend to be in favor of the party that is against taxing billionaires. They can and do use their power to amplify the voices that agree with them. Editing is incredibly powerful. You can make a moron sound intelligent and an intelligent person sound like a moron through selective editing.


Yup, this. My mom prides herself in having never voted for Richard Nixon (because she "knew he was a crook from the first time [she] saw him") but loves Trump and thinks he's a genius and the greatest President ever because all she ever does since she retired is sit at home and watch FOX News eight hours a day.

For Democrats to win they have to be basically flawless. Just one flubbed line like "we beat Medicare" instead of "Medicare fraud" and you get even the supposedly left-leaning media outlets treating it like a nuclear-tier crisis with 24/7 coverage. Meanwhile Trump can brag to a group of literal Boy Scouts about the wild sex parties he has on his yacht and the media shrugs. It's not an exaggeration to say it's worse here than in Hungary when Viktor Orban had a stranglehold over Hungarian outlets.
"don't try to pull a LightSpectra-Trumper"
TL+ Member
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22677 Posts
4 hours ago
#120888
I didn't vote for Nixon because I knew he was a crook, but this 34 count felon who was found liable for rape he's great.


The level of cognitive dissonance required for such a statement could power a small village.
But that is of course the point, if your locked in the Fox bubble you're never told Trump is a felon and a rapist.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10597 Posts
3 hours ago
#120889
Wonder why Soros doesn't try to start his own large media company.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44402 Posts
3 hours ago
#120890
On October 31 2026 02:04 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 00:36 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 30 2026 21:45 GreenHorizons wrote:
Are Democrats' leads outside the margin of error in the battleground states? Meaning statistically speaking do the polls have to be "wrong" for Democrats to lose?

I don't know how any election cycle for the foreseeable future is going to be easier for them than this one though, so they should/need to do pretty well regardless.

North Carolina and Georgia are the only truly safe Dem seats. Ohio is lean. Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Maine are all D-tilts while Iowa is an R-tilt and Nebraska and South Carolina are R-leans.

Bombshell Emerson poll from Kansas though shows 50-47 +3 for Dems. Top rates pollster, poll looks good and strong and not out of left field. Comparatively, Washington Post pushed a Kansas +10 D??? Yeah... not so sure about that.

Quantus Insights (heavily R biased pollster) shows Texas in a dead heat today. We'll see if any other polls make it out today but likely these are some of the last polls that will be published.

Forgive my ignorance, but that means other than NC and GA Dems could lose the rest without the polls being "wrong"?

If I flip a coin 3 times it probably won’t be heads 3x. That statement doesn’t cease to be true if I flip HHH. If AA holds up against 27o all in preflop the AA player still got lucky, their 90% odds resulted in 100% money, they beat the odds.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22425 Posts
2 hours ago
#120891
On October 31 2026 02:30 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 02:24 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 31 2026 02:14 LightSpectra wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:49 Simberto wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:29 dyhb wrote:
On October 31 2026 01:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On October 31 2026 00:58 Billyboy wrote:
You can’t have a logic based argument for Trump and his admin at this point. Every reason they said they were voting for him he has either done the opposite (in most cases) or just a very shitty but really expensive version of it.

Like what are his big accomplishments, having a ufc on the white house lawn. Renaming things, at great expense, some in expensive legal fights if he put his own name on it rather than “America” (and honestly what kind of loser names shit after themselves). Spending an absolute shit load on deportations that have not remotely moved the needle on illegals in the US. Started a war with a vastly inferior opponent and not winning but has spent 50bn now and raised the prices of basically everything because of transport costs going through the roof, not to mention directly at the pumps for all Americans. I guess getting Maduro was a win for a few oil companies, but made no difference to Venezuelans, so not reducing the migrants, nor a win for democracy. Given various lifelines to Russia well hurting American made arms sales in the short and long term. Increased the taxes paid by Americans through tariffs and raising costs of basically everything, with no noticeable bump in American manufacturing. Being pro data centers. Using government powers to cancel people he doesn’t like. Taking away state rights.

It’s clear why they have to pretend like trans are taking over and that’s really bad or something. Because whatever it was that they used to care about (or said they cared about) he has done the opposite or a shit job of.

If you're a Trump supporter I think his use of ICE is exactly what they wanted, so from a purely logical position, they'll have that to write home about because it's going to be mostly about the culture war (though the actual amount of deportees is tiny so that doesn't actually support their argument in favor of Trump).

Everything else has been pretty stupid though.
Ironically, he dropped illegal immigration through the southern border so quickly in his first year that it's forgotten for the midterms. (It isn't even a case to the voter, since he'll still be a lame duck president for another two years, and this was through executive action).

I only wonder if a future Democratic president will have the good sense to not let it get as bad as it did under Biden.


The border will always be hyped up as really bad by the republican machine when there is a democrat president, and as really good when there is a republican one. It doesn't really matter what is actually happening at that border, or what the president does about it.

Reality gets shaped in the newsrooms and troll farms, not at the border.


We got an allegedly "closed border" and mass deportations like Republicans wanted but all of the things they promised would come with those (higher wages, lower crime, shorter waitlists at hospitals, etc.) turned out to be complete lies.

I fully expect goldfish-brained voters will fall for it again next election, but it would be nice if the median voter finally learned their lesson that the Epstein class will keep plundering and looting the economy no matter how many brown people crossed the border today.

Dems have always had a messaging issue. I do think they've been far better about it this year, though that's in part for just how bad Republicans have been where they're basically on their knees groveling for their base to turnout to the election. I mean JD Vance literally was begging to give them another chance (lol).

I think leading Dem figures like El-Sayed, Mamdani, Talarico, and Ossoff are charismatic and doing a pretty solid job overall of leading stronger and more positive message from Democrats. Unfortunately, the former 2 are Muslim which hurts them nationally.


Messaging is really easy when your side controls most of the media.

All social media and a lot of other media is owned by billionaires, and billionaires tend to be in favor of the party that is against taxing billionaires. They can and do use their power to amplify the voices that agree with them. Editing is incredibly powerful. You can make a moron sound intelligent and an intelligent person sound like a moron through selective editing.


Seizing the means of communication and all that.
Blackmail governments into not being able to do anything about it is also likely.
Journalism is oblilgated to follow rules and report ethically. Manipulating and muddying the waters isn't.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10597 Posts
1 hour ago
#120892
Wow Rasmussen just came in with a 49-44 +5 for El Sayed in Michigan. Two weeks ago it was 46-44 +2 for El Sayed.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46629 Posts
1 hour ago
#120893
I really hope Abdul El-Sayed wins.

I'd also love to see a laid-back political discussion between him and Zohran Mamdani.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
RenSC2
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States1100 Posts
1 hour ago
#120894
On October 31 2026 03:16 FlaShFTW wrote:
Wonder why Soros doesn't try to start his own large media company.

Part of left wing ideology is to not trust corporate media, so they don't tune in with large enough numbers. Large scale left wing propaganda outlets are money losers... although he probably should try to buy something like Twitter and use that to push his agenda through the algorithm. Leftists can easily fall for something like that.
Playing better than standard requires deviation. This divergence usually results in sub-standard play.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10597 Posts
Last Edited: 2026-10-30 21:00:04
45 minutes ago
#120895
On October 31 2026 05:06 RenSC2 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 03:16 FlaShFTW wrote:
Wonder why Soros doesn't try to start his own large media company.

Part of left wing ideology is to not trust corporate media, so they don't tune in with large enough numbers. Large scale left wing propaganda outlets are money losers... although he probably should try to buy something like Twitter and use that to push his agenda through the algorithm. Leftists can easily fall for something like that.

I doubt Elon is ever letting go of Twitter rn unless it's for an obscene amount of money. Especially not when Grok is basically his personal AI machine to swing the rhetoric in favor of Republicans (and it still agrees mostly with left-wing policies lol)
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Jankisa
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Croatia1888 Posts
4 minutes ago
#120896
On October 31 2026 05:06 RenSC2 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 31 2026 03:16 FlaShFTW wrote:
Wonder why Soros doesn't try to start his own large media company.

Part of left wing ideology is to not trust corporate media, so they don't tune in with large enough numbers. Large scale left wing propaganda outlets are money losers... although he probably should try to buy something like Twitter and use that to push his agenda through the algorithm. Leftists can easily fall for something like that.


There are no large scale left wing networks or outlets.

Also, Soros is nowhere rich enough to play in this pool, his net worth is about $ 8 billion, so around one fifth of what Musk (well, a conglomerate of right wingers and foreign actors and him) paid for Twitter.

He just in the last 2 election cycles outspent Soros life time donations, the level of wealth he can throw around is not comparable.

[image loading]

The left is hilariously outmatched when it comes to money.
So, are you a pessimist? - On my better days. Are you a nihilist? - Not as much as I should be.
Prev 1 6043 6044 6045
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
The PiG Daily
05:30
Best Games of SC
herO vs Rogue
GuMiho vs ShoWTimE
Clem vs herO
PiGStarcraft203
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
PiGStarcraft203
JuggernautJason65
Nina 63
Codebar 51
EmSc Tv 18
StarCraft: Brood War
ProTech165
White-Ra 162
910 105
LancerX 13
Dota 2
syndereN368
PGG 183
LuMiX1
League of Legends
JimRising 642
Counter-Strike
Fnx 1133
Heroes of the Storm
Grubby3279
Liquid`Hasu541
Other Games
summit1g2246
Liquid`RaSZi1632
FrodaN1502
Beastyqt694
shahzam424
Mlord357
XaKoH 300
mouzStarbuck254
KnowMe201
RotterdaM186
ToD33
Trikslyr28
PPMD21
Organizations
StarCraft 2
WardiTV594
Other Games
ComeBackTV 320
StarCraft 2
EmSc Tv 18
EmSc2Tv 18
[ Show 15 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Hupsaiya 18
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• FirePhoenix10
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Jankos3460
• Nemesis3217
• Scarra1139
Other Games
• imaqtpie478
• Shiphtur430
Upcoming Events
OSC
15m
Replay Cast
1h 15m
Sparkling Tuna Cup
12h 15m
WardiTV Invitational
14h 15m
Epic.LAN
15h 15m
IPSL
18h 15m
eOnzErG vs McRibbed
LancerX vs StRyKeR
AI Arena Tournament
19h 15m
OSC
1d 16h
Yamato Cup
1d 17h
IPSL
1d 19h
Artosis vs RiceHat
Kyrie vs Sony
[ Show More ]
Map Test Tournament
2 days
WardiTV Weekly
2 days
Ultimate Battle
2 days
Rush vs BeSt
Replay Cast
3 days
Rogue vs Classic
Patches Events
3 days
PiGosaur Cup
4 days
Kung Fu Cup
4 days
The PondCast
5 days
KCM Race Survival
5 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-10-28
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
HCC Season 3

Ongoing

Acropolis #5
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 4
International ShieldBattery League
BSL Season 23
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026

Upcoming

IPSL Winter 2026-27
1xBet Invitational
SC4ALL II: Brood War
BSL 23: Non-Korean Championship
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
eXTREMESLAND 2026
PGL Major Singapore 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 6
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.