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On October 30 2026 06:06 Jankisa wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2026 05:44 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 30 2026 04:29 LightSpectra wrote:
The polls are getting even more blue as we get closer to election day. Nate Silver just said that even a nationwide pro-R standard polling error would still see the Senate flip to Democratic control. There's a good chance Alito is going to retire so the lame duck Senate can try to ram through a replacement. I too saw that recent Nate Silver interview with Ezra Klein. I thought it was super insightful actually and a good insight into how the polling industry works. I think a lot of us are just so jaded by the missed polling in two huge elections where a "blue wave" was projected and ended up with Dems getting absolutely roasted in 2016 and 2024. + Show Spoiler +
I listened to that one as well, very interesting for me since I haven't really heard Silver in a long form solo interview before, was kind of disappointing that he advises gambling companies and publicly gambles and publishes his bets, but whatchagonnado, nothing to do with him being an expert.
I believe the main takeaway there was, basically, that yeah, as usual, it's the economy stupid. More so gas prices, there's nothing that pisses of Americans then paying more for stuff when there's no good explanation why it was necessary, and that's coming at them from all sides.
Anyhow, here's hoping that all these polls and experts are correct!
I feel like Talerico would appreciate people being reminded that "faith without works is dead"
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The polls are so bad for Republicans they forgot about the migrant caravan heading toward the border they were supposed to fearmonger over.
Anyway, t-minus 6 days until Republicans decide the federal deficit is a crisis again.
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On October 30 2026 05:13 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2026 04:29 LightSpectra wrote:
The polls are getting even more blue as we get closer to election day. Nate Silver just said that even a nationwide pro-R standard polling error would still see the Senate flip to Democratic control. There's a good chance Alito is going to retire so the lame duck Senate can try to ram through a replacement. At this point, i sadly do not really put a lot of trust in anything polls say. The US is too weird, and polling has been too far off too often. Let's wait for election day to call stuff.
My theory is people are so embarrassed that they won’t even admit their vote for Trump, Netanyahu, add and so on that they lie to pollsters.
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United States10589 Posts
On October 30 2026 10:23 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2026 05:13 Simberto wrote:On October 30 2026 04:29 LightSpectra wrote:
The polls are getting even more blue as we get closer to election day. Nate Silver just said that even a nationwide pro-R standard polling error would still see the Senate flip to Democratic control. There's a good chance Alito is going to retire so the lame duck Senate can try to ram through a replacement. At this point, i sadly do not really put a lot of trust in anything polls say. The US is too weird, and polling has been too far off too often. Let's wait for election day to call stuff. My theory is people are so embarrassed that they won’t even admit their vote for Trump, Netanyahu, add and so on that they lie to pollsters.
Shy Tory Effect is real and certainly something that contributed to 2016.
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On October 30 2026 14:58 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2026 10:23 Billyboy wrote:On October 30 2026 05:13 Simberto wrote:On October 30 2026 04:29 LightSpectra wrote:
The polls are getting even more blue as we get closer to election day. Nate Silver just said that even a nationwide pro-R standard polling error would still see the Senate flip to Democratic control. There's a good chance Alito is going to retire so the lame duck Senate can try to ram through a replacement. At this point, i sadly do not really put a lot of trust in anything polls say. The US is too weird, and polling has been too far off too often. Let's wait for election day to call stuff. My theory is people are so embarrassed that they won’t even admit their vote for Trump, Netanyahu, add and so on that they lie to pollsters. Shy Tory Effect is real and certainly something that contributed to 2016.
One would hope that people who are so embarrassed about something that they could easily change would just stop doing the thing, instead of lying about it. But that doesn't seem to be happening sadly.
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On October 30 2026 10:23 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2026 05:13 Simberto wrote:On October 30 2026 04:29 LightSpectra wrote:
The polls are getting even more blue as we get closer to election day. Nate Silver just said that even a nationwide pro-R standard polling error would still see the Senate flip to Democratic control. There's a good chance Alito is going to retire so the lame duck Senate can try to ram through a replacement. At this point, i sadly do not really put a lot of trust in anything polls say. The US is too weird, and polling has been too far off too often. Let's wait for election day to call stuff. My theory is people are so embarrassed that they won’t even admit their vote for Trump, Netanyahu, add and so on that they lie to pollsters.
And/or, their voters are less likely to respond to polls.
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On October 30 2026 15:12 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2026 14:58 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 30 2026 10:23 Billyboy wrote:On October 30 2026 05:13 Simberto wrote:On October 30 2026 04:29 LightSpectra wrote:
The polls are getting even more blue as we get closer to election day. Nate Silver just said that even a nationwide pro-R standard polling error would still see the Senate flip to Democratic control. There's a good chance Alito is going to retire so the lame duck Senate can try to ram through a replacement. At this point, i sadly do not really put a lot of trust in anything polls say. The US is too weird, and polling has been too far off too often. Let's wait for election day to call stuff. My theory is people are so embarrassed that they won’t even admit their vote for Trump, Netanyahu, add and so on that they lie to pollsters. Shy Tory Effect is real and certainly something that contributed to 2016. One would hope that people who are so embarrassed about something that they could easily change would just stop doing the thing, instead of lying about it. But that doesn't seem to be happening sadly. tribalism is so so deeply engrained in the psyche.
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I find it very hard to believe that all these folks who have been embarrassed with bad predictions when it comes to polling in 2016, 2020 and 2024 might have learned something.
The good news, however is that presidential election polls have systematically underestimated Republicans, while midterm election polls have been much more accurate and less partisanly biased.
This is consistent not only with Shy Tory theory but also with the fact that Trump is uniquely shitty so anyone who is not a flag carrying MAGA cultist is embarrassed to admit to voting or planing to vote for them.
Present company, of course, excluded.
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The 2016 polls were off because polls taken pre-Jim Comey's ratfucking were still being weighed in the final projection. The 2024 polls were mostly within the margin of error (except that cursed Ann Selzer poll in Iowa...), but people watching the early voting data knew it was going to be bad for Democrats unless the turnout on election day was truly record-smashing. 538 had Trump more likely to win throughout almost the entire election. Democrats were hoping the polls were severely underestimating them, but they weren't really far off.
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Are Democrats' leads outside the margin of error in the battleground states? Meaning statistically speaking do the polls have to be "wrong" for Democrats to lose?
I don't know how any election cycle for the foreseeable future is going to be easier for them than this one though, so they should/need to do pretty well regardless.
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On October 30 2026 15:12 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2026 14:58 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 30 2026 10:23 Billyboy wrote:On October 30 2026 05:13 Simberto wrote:On October 30 2026 04:29 LightSpectra wrote:
The polls are getting even more blue as we get closer to election day. Nate Silver just said that even a nationwide pro-R standard polling error would still see the Senate flip to Democratic control. There's a good chance Alito is going to retire so the lame duck Senate can try to ram through a replacement. At this point, i sadly do not really put a lot of trust in anything polls say. The US is too weird, and polling has been too far off too often. Let's wait for election day to call stuff. My theory is people are so embarrassed that they won’t even admit their vote for Trump, Netanyahu, add and so on that they lie to pollsters. Shy Tory Effect is real and certainly something that contributed to 2016. One would hope that people who are so embarrassed about something that they could easily change would just stop doing the thing, instead of lying about it. But that doesn't seem to be happening sadly.
Nope, and these are likely the same people that when they drunk their racism or other isms starts slipping out.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/x44W64n.png)
