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United States4053 Posts
On November 26 2010 17:11 ComusLoM wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2010 17:04 Lowkin wrote:On November 26 2010 16:51 ComusLoM wrote:On November 26 2010 16:44 infinitestory wrote:On November 26 2010 16:35 Mickey wrote:On November 26 2010 16:31 Lazix wrote:
Wouldn't it just be for the greater good to just call off the exercises? Or just hold them further south? NK seem pretty serious, I don't see what good will come from just pissing them further off. It's all a mind game. If North Korea succeeds in bullying South Korea into submission, they know they will have the upper hand in political talks. South Korea is finally fed up with allowing this to happen at the expense of SK casualties. The important issue is whether or not North Korea's trump card, China, will come to play. china is only going to back north korea as long as they stay out of war if and when it gets to war, china will view it as something which is not their problem Yeah, China is in a great position here, if it comes to war it can simply stay out of it, however the US doesn't have that type of luxury, if there's war it has to become involved. Of course war would still not be in the best interest of china as stability in the region would benefit everyone, with the possible exception of North Korea unless it gets the aid it desires. It seems like NK is all out trying to prevent these military exercises from going on as planned, because if they do they will lose face if they don't act as promised. They're not stupid enough to want a full scale war and this just seems like a desperate attempt to show that they're serious. I'm confident and hoping that the US and SK will simply call their bluff and go on with the operation. I really doubt North Korea would be willing to start a war over this. I don't think China can stay uninvolved if this war breaks out. They wont have to join military fighting though but there will still be a huge impact upon them. They are on a direct border with Korea so if war does break out they are going to have a huge inflow of refugees and the possibility of nuclear fallout. Of course China will be forced to accept refugees, but the threat of nuclear fallout affecting china is miniscule. I was merely talking in terms of military support.
even so, i'm pretty sure the general chinese populace's sentiment towards the possibility of war is "if they get to fighting, i'm not willing to get involved"... they'll do their best to have as little connection as possible. i stated a couple pages earlier that i read some chinese forum posts about the possibility of war, and the majority responded that they would either refuse to fight in the war or support south korea
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On November 26 2010 16:06 MrHoon wrote:gf just txt msged me in full panic I couldn't believe it myself until I turned my TV on I just don't know what to do now. I was paranoid before but now I'm just scared shitless I know NK can't support a war and I know NK isn't stupid enough to start one, but deep down I just know they will actually pull it off
depends on whether launching a nuclear missile counts as war.
honestly though, if a republican gets elected this time around in the US, and then NK attacks SK, I think we're all fucked and it's ww3 time.
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United States44394 Posts
I cannot see a situation in which China doesn't drop NK like a stone if it really has to choose between the United States and NK. Right now it can stay in the middle but China is not yet economically, militarily or technologically ready to fight a war against the US. It's pure brinksmanship, relying on the enemy to have better judgement than you've shown, but I can't see China being so irrational as to fight the only remaining superpower.
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On November 26 2010 17:26 KwarK wrote:
I cannot see a situation in which China doesn't drop NK like a stone if it really has to choose between the United States and NK. Right now it can stay in the middle but China is not yet economically, militarily or technologically ready to fight a war against the US. It's pure brinksmanship, relying on the enemy to have better judgement than you've shown, but I can't see China being so irrational as to fight the only remaining superpower.
Not only that, but China would have to fight the U.S and its allies. (U.K, Australia, and I'm pretty sure some other countries would help as well because if China gets involved it's pretty much WW3).
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On November 26 2010 17:28 Refreshe wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2010 17:26 KwarK wrote:
I cannot see a situation in which China doesn't drop NK like a stone if it really has to choose between the United States and NK. Right now it can stay in the middle but China is not yet economically, militarily or technologically ready to fight a war against the US. It's pure brinksmanship, relying on the enemy to have better judgement than you've shown, but I can't see China being so irrational as to fight the only remaining superpower. Not only that, but China would have to fight the U.S and its allies. (U.K, Australia, and I'm pretty sure some other countries would help as well because if China gets involved it's pretty much WW3).
If China backs N.Korea in the fighting you can guarantee that all of us are getting conscripted.
If China does back N.Korea what is russia gonna do and what is the middle east gonna do.
Not saying China is likely too just hypothetically.
I wonder what would happen if China issues a statement that they want the US/SK to stop there military drills.
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United States44394 Posts
On November 26 2010 17:42 Lowkin wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2010 17:28 Refreshe wrote:On November 26 2010 17:26 KwarK wrote:
I cannot see a situation in which China doesn't drop NK like a stone if it really has to choose between the United States and NK. Right now it can stay in the middle but China is not yet economically, militarily or technologically ready to fight a war against the US. It's pure brinksmanship, relying on the enemy to have better judgement than you've shown, but I can't see China being so irrational as to fight the only remaining superpower. Not only that, but China would have to fight the U.S and its allies. (U.K, Australia, and I'm pretty sure some other countries would help as well because if China gets involved it's pretty much WW3). If China backs N.Korea in the fighting you can guarantee that all of us are getting conscripted. If China does back N.Korea what is russia gonna do and what is the middle east gonna do. Not saying China is likely too just hypothetically. I wonder what would happen if China issues a statement that they want the US/SK to stop there military drills.
I can't see that happening because that'd be just backing somebody into a corner. Whatever happened then someone is going to have to back down and lose face. The more ways out of this situation the better as far as China is concerned.
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On November 26 2010 17:42 Lowkin wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2010 17:28 Refreshe wrote:On November 26 2010 17:26 KwarK wrote:
I cannot see a situation in which China doesn't drop NK like a stone if it really has to choose between the United States and NK. Right now it can stay in the middle but China is not yet economically, militarily or technologically ready to fight a war against the US. It's pure brinksmanship, relying on the enemy to have better judgement than you've shown, but I can't see China being so irrational as to fight the only remaining superpower. Not only that, but China would have to fight the U.S and its allies. (U.K, Australia, and I'm pretty sure some other countries would help as well because if China gets involved it's pretty much WW3). If China backs N.Korea in the fighting you can guarantee that all of us are getting conscripted. If China does back N.Korea what is russia gonna do and what is the middle east gonna do. Not saying China is likely too just hypothetically. I wonder what would happen if China issues a statement that they want the US/SK to stop there military drills.
The drills were planned for the west side of the peninsula but have been moved to the east side on China's insistence.
China wants peace. They distance themselves from NK a little bit each time it does something dumb. There is no way China even threatens war with the US. China is in the economic game now and war is the opposite of something that would be in its best interest.
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On November 26 2010 17:28 Refreshe wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2010 17:26 KwarK wrote:
I cannot see a situation in which China doesn't drop NK like a stone if it really has to choose between the United States and NK. Right now it can stay in the middle but China is not yet economically, militarily or technologically ready to fight a war against the US. It's pure brinksmanship, relying on the enemy to have better judgement than you've shown, but I can't see China being so irrational as to fight the only remaining superpower. Not only that, but China would have to fight the U.S and its allies. (U.K, Australia, and I'm pretty sure some other countries would help as well because if China gets involved it's pretty much WW3).
Actually, it would be the whole NATO, which means Belgium, Denmark, France, Island, Italy, Canada, Luxenbourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, UK, Greece, Turkey, Germany, Spain, Poland, Czech Rep., Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania and Croatia.
Anyways, WW3 WILL NOT HAPPEN ! Not because of North Korea, wtf.
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On November 26 2010 17:57 tenacity wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2010 17:28 Refreshe wrote:On November 26 2010 17:26 KwarK wrote:
I cannot see a situation in which China doesn't drop NK like a stone if it really has to choose between the United States and NK. Right now it can stay in the middle but China is not yet economically, militarily or technologically ready to fight a war against the US. It's pure brinksmanship, relying on the enemy to have better judgement than you've shown, but I can't see China being so irrational as to fight the only remaining superpower. Not only that, but China would have to fight the U.S and its allies. (U.K, Australia, and I'm pretty sure some other countries would help as well because if China gets involved it's pretty much WW3). Actually, it would be the whole NATO, which means Belgium, Denmark, France, Island, Italy, Canada, Luxenbourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, UK, Greece, Turkey, Germany, Spain, Poland, Czech Rep., Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania and Croatia. Anyways, WW3 WILL NOT HAPPEN ! Not because of North Korea, wtf.
It's not like those countries are going to send thousands of troops.. Most would probably send a couple million dollars.
And not because of North Korea, but because of China, but the chance of that happening is prob less than 5%.
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On November 26 2010 17:57 tenacity wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2010 17:28 Refreshe wrote:On November 26 2010 17:26 KwarK wrote:
I cannot see a situation in which China doesn't drop NK like a stone if it really has to choose between the United States and NK. Right now it can stay in the middle but China is not yet economically, militarily or technologically ready to fight a war against the US. It's pure brinksmanship, relying on the enemy to have better judgement than you've shown, but I can't see China being so irrational as to fight the only remaining superpower. Not only that, but China would have to fight the U.S and its allies. (U.K, Australia, and I'm pretty sure some other countries would help as well because if China gets involved it's pretty much WW3). Actually, it would be the whole NATO, which means Belgium, Denmark, France, Island, Italy, Canada, Luxenbourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, UK, Greece, Turkey, Germany, Spain, Poland, Czech Rep., Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania and Croatia.
You never know how an alliance like that is going to work out in the event of a really major war, like the U.S./S.K. vs China/N.K. would be.
I don't know. How many countries would really be willing to fight against China/N.K. if that really did happen? The U.S. has exhausted a lot of its credibility in Iraq, I wonder if we would be left in the dust by NATO allies in the event this happened.
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I know it's fun to theorycraft war between the US and China but it's simply not going to happen with the world as it is now. Both countries have way too much to lose in trade and international goodwill. Say what you will about capitalism, but it keeps borders open and people smiling (even if it is forced).
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On November 26 2010 18:05 Refreshe wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2010 17:57 tenacity wrote:On November 26 2010 17:28 Refreshe wrote:On November 26 2010 17:26 KwarK wrote:
I cannot see a situation in which China doesn't drop NK like a stone if it really has to choose between the United States and NK. Right now it can stay in the middle but China is not yet economically, militarily or technologically ready to fight a war against the US. It's pure brinksmanship, relying on the enemy to have better judgement than you've shown, but I can't see China being so irrational as to fight the only remaining superpower. Not only that, but China would have to fight the U.S and its allies. (U.K, Australia, and I'm pretty sure some other countries would help as well because if China gets involved it's pretty much WW3). Actually, it would be the whole NATO, which means Belgium, Denmark, France, Island, Italy, Canada, Luxenbourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, UK, Greece, Turkey, Germany, Spain, Poland, Czech Rep., Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania and Croatia. Anyways, WW3 WILL NOT HAPPEN ! Not because of North Korea, wtf. It's not like those countries are going to send thousands of troops.. Most would probably send a couple million dollars. And not because of North Korea, but because of China, but the chance of that happening is prob less than 5%.
Most of those countries have sent thousands of troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. Some more, some less, some have pulled out earlier. But they all helped.
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N Korea warns war games take region to 'brink of war'
North Korea has warned that the impending joint military exercises by the South and the US are pushing the region to "the brink of war".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11844387
The North Koreans really don't want these war games to go ahead and are threatening further attacks if they do...
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I hear you man I was hoping to teach English in S.Korea for a couple years when I finished University. Oh well looks like I get to go to Japan instead.
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From twitter:
W7VOA Steve Herman
China changes stance from "concerned" to "opposes" joint US-ROK Yellow Sea drill.
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On November 26 2010 20:15 Grettin wrote:From twitter: Show nested quote +W7VOA Steve Herman
China changes stance from "concerned" to "opposes" joint US-ROK Yellow Sea drill.
Uh oh, not good. I do agree though, they're poking the rabid dog with a stick...
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On November 26 2010 19:58 Lowkin wrote:I hear you man I was hoping to teach English in S.Korea for a couple years when I finished University. Oh well looks like I get to go to Japan instead.
yellow fever much?
i don't see what's the big deal.. there are no travel warnings for South Korea anyway, shit like this has happened for decades and it always just blows over. most of the world really are pussies when it comes to dealing with North Korea,
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konadora
Singapore66366 Posts
holy shit man
we're in such a terrible political position right now 
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I am freaking the fuck out about this guys. I don't want to leave Korea but you better fucking believe that if shit hits the fan I'm up out.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50158000/gif/_50158888_nk_sk464x280_2.gif)
