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On March 26 2013 01:18 maru~ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 01:11 LSF wrote:On March 26 2013 01:10 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:07 LSF wrote:
What are the chances to random the same hero in two consecutive game? Cos I just did with Rubick.
Maybe I should start playing the lottery. 1/~90 Uhm, thats the chance to random any hero in one game. It doesn't matter which hero you get in the first game. If you roll a dice and get a 3 and then roll a second dice, is the chance to roll another 3 1/6 or 1/36?
So you would argue that the chance of rolling 100 3s in a row is just 1/6? That is wrong. Ignoring the first 99 rolls, you'd have 1/6 chance to get a 3 on the 100th roll, but we're not ignoring the first 99.
The chance of randoming the same dota 2 character (in this case rubick) twice in a row is 1 / 95² (or however many dota 2 characters there are)
e: I see where the confusion is coming from, it depends whether you name a hero before the first game or not. I guess he didn't so 1/95 is right x)
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On March 26 2013 01:23 Laurens wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 01:18 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:11 LSF wrote:On March 26 2013 01:10 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:07 LSF wrote:
What are the chances to random the same hero in two consecutive game? Cos I just did with Rubick.
Maybe I should start playing the lottery. 1/~90 Uhm, thats the chance to random any hero in one game. It doesn't matter which hero you get in the first game. If you roll a dice and get a 3 and then roll a second dice, is the chance to roll another 3 1/6 or 1/36? So you would argue that the chance of rolling 100 3s in a row is just 1/6? That is wrong. Ignoring the first 99 rolls, you'd have 1/6 chance to get a 3 on the 100th roll, but we're not ignoring the first 99. The chance of randoming the same dota 2 character twice in a row is 1 / 95² (or however many dota 2 characters there are)
The key word is "2 games in a row", so yeah it's 1 / 95²
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United States47024 Posts
On March 26 2013 01:20 Sn0_Man wrote:What are the chances you random a hero twice in a row? 1/90 What are the chances you random exactly Rubick twice in a row? 1/8100 Simple. Its the same as the chance that I random Clinkz then Batrider in that order (which happened last night). Should I play the lottery? 
This.
This really shouldn't be as confusing as people are making it.
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On March 26 2013 01:23 crms wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 01:18 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:11 LSF wrote:On March 26 2013 01:10 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:07 LSF wrote:
What are the chances to random the same hero in two consecutive game? Cos I just did with Rubick.
Maybe I should start playing the lottery. 1/~90 Uhm, thats the chance to random any hero in one game. It doesn't matter which hero you get in the first game. If you roll a dice and get a 3 and then roll a second dice, is the chance to roll another 3 1/6 or 1/36? Haven't taken stats since college but pretty easy to understand, ya?
Apparently not...
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Ok, now I'm more confused than before, but thats ok. 
On topic: Rubick = good hero, had loads of fun with rupture and forcestaff.
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Rubick is a really good hero.
You never really realize how OP fissure is until you steal it with rubick (who has the mana to spam it plus the lack of animation makes it trivial to hit good ones.)
PS: Rock is really hard to steal vs a semi-competent warlock. And teams bitch a lot if you don't magically steal all 5 opposing ulti's at once. Thats my biggest complaint about rubick (well that and u can't cliff-trap noobs anymore  )
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People at my level are so afraid to do anything at level 1. I randomed spirit breaker, so went for boots+orb of venom+tango to get first blood. We had CM+ riki bot so I charged this lane as soon as they came into vision, but they were telling me" no no no it's not going to work go farm we're going to lose too much time".
Of course we ended up getting double kill, then I continued to gank everywhere on the map it was quite hilarious. It did help that we had sand king and CM in our team, it really makes for deadly ganks.
At my level people are so passive before level 6 that they have no idea how to react to someone actively roaming/ganking it's quite hilarious :D.
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On March 26 2013 01:28 maru~ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 01:23 crms wrote:On March 26 2013 01:18 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:11 LSF wrote:On March 26 2013 01:10 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:07 LSF wrote:
What are the chances to random the same hero in two consecutive game? Cos I just did with Rubick.
Maybe I should start playing the lottery. 1/~90 Uhm, thats the chance to random any hero in one game. It doesn't matter which hero you get in the first game. If you roll a dice and get a 3 and then roll a second dice, is the chance to roll another 3 1/6 or 1/36? Haven't taken stats since college but pretty easy to understand, ya? Apparently not...
Apparently not, because from your post, its pretty clear you haven't taken statistics at all.
The chance of randoming any hero is always 1/90 YES, but to random the EXACT SAME HERO 2 games in a row requires a (1/90) * (1/90).
Its really really really basic stats.
Think of a 6×6 array of squares, where each square represents a possible roll. For example, we could say the square in row a column b corresponds to rolling an a first, and then rolling a b.
With these 36 different possibilities, only one of them - the one in the top left hand corner - corresponds to rolling two consecutive 1s.
Therefore, the probability is 1/36.
The second roll has a 1/6 chance of being a 1 IS TRUE, but you are only selecting the rolls in which the first DICE also gave a 1.
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On March 26 2013 01:59 ch33psh33p wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 01:28 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:23 crms wrote:On March 26 2013 01:18 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:11 LSF wrote:On March 26 2013 01:10 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:07 LSF wrote:
What are the chances to random the same hero in two consecutive game? Cos I just did with Rubick.
Maybe I should start playing the lottery. 1/~90 Uhm, thats the chance to random any hero in one game. It doesn't matter which hero you get in the first game. If you roll a dice and get a 3 and then roll a second dice, is the chance to roll another 3 1/6 or 1/36? Haven't taken stats since college but pretty easy to understand, ya? Apparently not... Apparently not, because from your post, its pretty clear you haven't taken statistics at all. The chance of randoming any hero is always 1/90 YES, but to random the EXACT SAME HERO 2 games in a row requires a (1/90) * (1/90). Its really really really basic stats.
The point is that if you've already randomed a hero once, the chance of randoming that hero again is 1/90. It's the difference between "what are the odds of randoming Rubick twice in a row" and "I just randomed Rubick, what are the odds that I random him again".
The odds of randoming Rubick twice in a row are (1/90) * (1/90). The odds of randoming ANY hero twice in a row are (90/90) * (1/90), or just 1/90.
Or going by your dice example, the odds of getting two 1's in a row is 1/36, but the odds of rolling a die twice and getting the same number twice(either two 1's, two 2's, two 3's, etc.) is 1/6.
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For some reason, It seems like me and my friends always have a hero that seems like we random more often than not. I have a friend that legitimately random kunkka around 25% of the time - its hard to tell whether this is a flaw in the algorithm, or is just an outlier, or is just the human perception of finding patterns when there are none.
Oh well, doesn't matter that I guess.
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On March 26 2013 01:59 ch33psh33p wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 01:28 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:23 crms wrote:On March 26 2013 01:18 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:11 LSF wrote:On March 26 2013 01:10 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:07 LSF wrote:
What are the chances to random the same hero in two consecutive game? Cos I just did with Rubick.
Maybe I should start playing the lottery. 1/~90 Uhm, thats the chance to random any hero in one game. It doesn't matter which hero you get in the first game. If you roll a dice and get a 3 and then roll a second dice, is the chance to roll another 3 1/6 or 1/36? Haven't taken stats since college but pretty easy to understand, ya? Apparently not... Apparently not, because from your post, its pretty clear you haven't taken statistics at all. The chance of randoming any hero is always 1/90 YES, but to random the EXACT SAME HERO 2 games in a row requires a (1/90) * (1/90). Its really really really basic stats. Think of a 6×6 array of squares, where each square represents a possible roll. For example, we could say the square in row a column b corresponds to rolling an a first, and then rolling a b. With these 36 different possibilities, only one of them - the one in the top left hand corner - corresponds to rolling two consecutive 1s. Therefore, the probability is 1/36. The second roll has a 1/6 chance of being a 1 IS TRUE, but you are only selecting the rolls in which the first DICE also gave a 1.
If you're going to call people out for their lack of knowledge in statistics, make sure you're not wrong. It's been explained in the previous post so I wont bother repeating it.
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I've often wondered if they adjusted the random algorithm slightly in favour of less played heroes... seems to me that some do come up more often than others.
On the other hand it might be pure imagination or selective perception.
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On March 26 2013 01:59 ch33psh33p wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 01:28 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:23 crms wrote:On March 26 2013 01:18 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:11 LSF wrote:On March 26 2013 01:10 maru~ wrote:On March 26 2013 01:07 LSF wrote:
What are the chances to random the same hero in two consecutive game? Cos I just did with Rubick.
Maybe I should start playing the lottery. 1/~90 Uhm, thats the chance to random any hero in one game. It doesn't matter which hero you get in the first game. If you roll a dice and get a 3 and then roll a second dice, is the chance to roll another 3 1/6 or 1/36? Haven't taken stats since college but pretty easy to understand, ya? Apparently not... Apparently not, because from your post, its pretty clear you haven't taken statistics at all. The chance of randoming any hero is always 1/90 YES, but to random the EXACT SAME HERO 2 games in a row requires a (1/90) * (1/90). Its really really really basic stats. Think of a 6×6 array of squares, where each square represents a possible roll. For example, we could say the square in row a column b corresponds to rolling an a first, and then rolling a b. With these 36 different possibilities, only one of them - the one in the top left hand corner - corresponds to rolling two consecutive 1s. Therefore, the probability is 1/36. The second roll has a 1/6 chance of being a 1 IS TRUE, but you are only selecting the rolls in which the first DICE also gave a 1.
This isn't the odds of rolling a one twice; it's the odds of rolling doubles.
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I thought TL was supposed to be filled with nerds. How is anyone having problems with stuff a 10 year old should be able to work out?
The chance of going random and getting the same hero twice in a row is 1/98. The chance of doing this WITH A SPECIFIC HERO is (1/98)^2. Given the wording of the original question, the answer is 1/98, as no hero was specified.
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On March 25 2013 19:46 Unleashing wrote:
Nah, most of it was fixed IIRC. He can still get frostbitten though, but bat have been improved massively compared to release.
Frostbite working on fireflying batrider is on the intended changes list. The only reason it didn't in wc3 is because entangling roots (the base spell for frostbite) doesn't work on flying units
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On March 26 2013 02:39 FuzzyJAM wrote:
I thought TL was supposed to be filled with nerds. How is anyone having problems with stuff a 10 year old should be able to work out?
The chance of going random and getting the same hero twice in a row is 1/98. The chance of doing this WITH A SPECIFIC HERO is (1/98)^2. Given the wording of the original question, the answer is 1/98, as no hero was specified.
you do realize that as soon as you have to hit a hero twice in a row with random the hero is specific?
Any specific hero has as large percentage as any other random hero and the next roll has to be specific.
Do the math.. (1/98)^2=1/8100
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Man you guys are so freaking smart. I could not argue about semantics for this long
Also 98*98 is definitely not 8100 I'm not sure where you're getting that
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Netherlands45349 Posts
Somewhere Flamewheel is crying.
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Well, they forbid us the ursa, mangix and tree talk, but they cannot take our math discusssions.
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EPT
