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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 9758

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
KOFgokuon
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
United States14911 Posts
January 22 2018 20:04 GMT
#195141
Without any agreement that the house will take up DACa this deal is toothless

This is just like the bipartisan immigration reform deal in 2013. Passes the senate but who cares because the house won’t do squat
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
January 22 2018 20:09 GMT
#195142
Pretty much everyone is "on their way out" with the Trump admin. You can basically just say "rumor has it X is on the verge of being removed" and anyone will believe it. Tillerson and even Sessions have been in the rumor mill multiple times too, and yet they're still in their positions.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18857 Posts
January 22 2018 20:11 GMT
#195143
On January 23 2018 05:04 KOFgokuon wrote:
Without any agreement that the house will take up DACa this deal is toothless

This is just like the bipartisan immigration reform deal in 2013. Passes the senate but who cares because the house won’t do squat

The difference here is that the shutdown can happen again.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
KOFgokuon
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
United States14911 Posts
January 22 2018 20:13 GMT
#195144
Dems already showed that they will blink first. And now the messaging is way worse. They caved for nothing
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-01-22 20:17:16
January 22 2018 20:15 GMT
#195145
Exactly. The deal is that the Democrats get to vote on a DACA bill that will fund the government for a longer period of time. If the House kills that, the shutdown is their problem. If the Senate Republicans vote against it, the shutdown is their problems.

On January 23 2018 05:13 KOFgokuon wrote:
Dems already showed that they will blink first. And now the messaging is way worse. They caved for nothing


They got CHIP funded, assurances that DACA will be voted on and only gave of three weeks of funding. I wish every issue I cared about in congress could be handled every 3 weeks.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18857 Posts
January 22 2018 20:17 GMT
#195146
On January 23 2018 05:13 KOFgokuon wrote:
Dems already showed that they will blink first. And now the messaging is way worse. They caved for nothing

I disagree, the context was far more muddled going into the weekend and should the shutdown happen again, the link with Republican promises is far more clear.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
January 22 2018 20:55 GMT
#195147
This also gives cover for senators like Doug Jones, who made a big deal out of getting CHIP renewed. Now he doesn't have that pressure on him when and if a shutdown happens over DACA.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
IyMoon
Profile Joined April 2016
United States1249 Posts
January 22 2018 20:56 GMT
#195148
I think people are really underestimating how this went for dems. But it really all comes down to what the DACA deal looks like.
Something witty
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 22 2018 21:00 GMT
#195149
On January 23 2018 05:56 IyMoon wrote:
I think people are really underestimating how this went for dems. But it really all comes down to what the DACA deal looks like.

I have already had to remind a couple left leaning fiends that the goal is to pass DACA, not beat the Republicans.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18857 Posts
January 22 2018 21:03 GMT
#195150
On January 23 2018 05:56 IyMoon wrote:
I think people are really underestimating how this went for dems. But it really all comes down to what the DACA deal looks like.

Pretty much every news outlet decrying the Dems moves today are the same that acted as though the original shutdown move was a clear and obvious win for Dems. I think this view will change as we get closer to the possibility of another shutdown predicated on terms far more obvious than they were last week's end.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 22 2018 21:22 GMT
#195151
From all reports, Trump twisted a lot of arms in the House to get them to vote for spending stop gap with CHIP included, which put democrats on the back foot. And then he shut up through the weekend, which also limited the fall out and did hurt the Democrats position. If the House had not thrown up that last minute CR with CHIP, I don’t think this would have ended today. But then again, the Democrats got one of the deals they were looking for on Friday.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-01-22 21:30:24
January 22 2018 21:30 GMT
#195152
On January 23 2018 04:53 IyMoon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2018 04:49 Mohdoo wrote:
On January 23 2018 04:46 IyMoon wrote:
On January 23 2018 04:31 Doodsmack wrote:


People always say that 'X' is on their way out. I would be surprised if this is true

Yeah, how long ago did we hear tillerson was moments from quitting?


The better question is how many TIMES have we heard he was quitting.


There was one episode with Tillerson, and one with Sessions. It's quite possible they were close to being fired. It's a certainty that Sessions was close, considering Trump's public comments on Sessions at the time. Trump also publicly threw some shade at Tillerson with the IQ comment (and Tillerson did not deny calling Trump a moron). I don't think the press makes these sources and quotes up.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
January 22 2018 21:31 GMT
#195153
On January 23 2018 06:03 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2018 05:56 IyMoon wrote:
I think people are really underestimating how this went for dems. But it really all comes down to what the DACA deal looks like.

Pretty much every news outlet decrying the Dems moves today are the same that acted as though the original shutdown move was a clear and obvious win for Dems. I think this view will change as we get closer to the possibility of another shutdown predicated on terms far more obvious than they were last week's end.

You could argue this is going amazingly for Dems because there will not be a single Democrat against the shut down in 3 weeks.

People keep pretending this is the end or some bullshit. Lots of moderate Dems didn't like the idea of a shutdown. This allows for those people to be rallied in favor of a shutdown once turtle breaks his word.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 22 2018 21:55 GMT
#195154


17 days until February 8, 2018.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
January 22 2018 22:20 GMT
#195155
On January 23 2018 06:55 Plansix wrote:
https://twitter.com/HorsleyScott/status/955556441791791105

17 days until February 8, 2018.


So government 100% getting shut down "for real" next time. Graham not even being invited certainly shows the way they intend to do things.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-01-22 22:37:03
January 22 2018 22:28 GMT
#195156
On January 23 2018 07:20 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2018 06:55 Plansix wrote:
https://twitter.com/HorsleyScott/status/955556441791791105

17 days until February 8, 2018.


So government 100% getting shut down "for real" next time. Graham not even being invited certainly shows the way they intend to do things.

We will have to see. But I can’t see the immigration deal working if they are leading it. And the bipartisan group that Trump meet with last time seems to have been frozen out. Democrats aren’t going to work with someone like Cotton. If McConnell can’t get that bipartisan group back in charge of the deal, this thing will be dead.



Yeah, ok. This plan is pretty clear, to pressure democrats from red states. Not really convinced this is going to get them to 60 on February 8, 2018.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
IyMoon
Profile Joined April 2016
United States1249 Posts
January 22 2018 22:40 GMT
#195157
On January 23 2018 07:28 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2018 07:20 Mohdoo wrote:
On January 23 2018 06:55 Plansix wrote:
https://twitter.com/HorsleyScott/status/955556441791791105

17 days until February 8, 2018.


So government 100% getting shut down "for real" next time. Graham not even being invited certainly shows the way they intend to do things.

We will have to see. But I can’t see the immigration deal working if they are leading it. And the bipartisan group that Trump meet with last time seems to have been frozen out. Democrats aren’t going to work with someone like Cotton. If McConnell can’t get that bipartisan group back in charge of the deal, this thing will be dead.

https://twitter.com/HorsleyScott/status/955564795641712641

Yeah, ok. This plan is pretty clear, to pressure democrats from red states. Not really convinced this is going to get them to 60 on February 8, 2018.


I don't get going after Jones. he has to know that he can't win in 2020 so why fuck over the dems
Something witty
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22369 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-01-22 22:52:05
January 22 2018 22:51 GMT
#195158
What is to stop the same optics next time as now?
"The Dems put forward unreasonable demands, we can't accept them. Their fault for not compromising."

My gut tells me we will be in the exact same position in 3 weeks because McConnel and Ryan are not in control. An acceptable deal for the Dems won't get accepted by the Tea Party.

Can the Dems + moderate Republicans avoid a filibuster without the tea party?
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-01-22 22:57:32
January 22 2018 22:55 GMT
#195159
I'm pretty sure Manchin is going to get re elected.

Jones otoh, it's a very steep uphill battle. However, I do think he has a shot at retaining his seat, though even if he does really, really well as a senator and gets a solid approval rating it will largely depend on who's on top of the 2020 ticket for Republicans.

If McConnell is true to his word and lets DACA go up for a vote in the senate, it gets through. I think Ryan, who is reportedly stepping down after midterms, will let it go up for a vote too and tell the hardliners to screw off.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 22 2018 22:55 GMT
#195160
On January 23 2018 07:51 Gorsameth wrote:
What is to stop the same optics next time as now?
"The Dems put forward unreasonable demands, we can't accept them. Their fault for not compromising."

My gut tells me we will be in the exact same position in 3 weeks because McConnel and Ryan are not in control. An acceptable deal for the Dems won't get accepted by the Tea Party.

Can the Dems + moderate Republicans avoid a filibuster without the tea party?

In the senate, yes. But then it needs to get through the house.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
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