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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On August 02 2017 23:38 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2017 23:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 02 2017 22:06 m4ini wrote:On August 02 2017 17:38 LegalLord wrote:
Trump is little more than the caricature that the Republicans have been building all these years come to life. It is not by some genius of persuasion or influence that he became president, but by the ability to self-fund a chaotic mess of campaign, promise everything the Republicans always have, and have a knack for drawing attention to oneself. It's as funny as it is sad that things went this way. That's pretty much it. You can't even blame voters really. Trump is also not a caricature of the republicans, it's what republicans have become for the most part. I said over and over again that being conservative is one (perfectly fine) thing, but being "republican" is something different. Of course there's some actual conservatives in the republican party, with (decent) conservative views, but overall the republican party is just a bunch of old farts that care more about catering to their lobbies and fucking everyone over who's not remotely rich. Conservative != party over country. Republicans are a clown show, and they prove it over and over again. In fact, the last election race showed how uninformed and disconnected from reality republican politicians generally are. The only thing I disagree with you on, in this post, is that voters are blameless in this situation. While the Republican leadership deserves plenty of blame, I also think that the voters who put those Republicans (and Trump) in office share the responsibility. The voters never educated themselves. You may as well blame janitors for being janitors or a technician for never being an engineer. These people are the people they are...because of the people they are. It is a somewhat inescapable reality that many people will never be any better than the people they become by just kind of going through the motions of life. Most people don't push themselves, try to grow or feel any amount of internal motivation to make the world a better place. The average human is really, really, reallllly deficient.
If the only reason for someone's ignorance is laziness, then I have no problem blaming that person. I can't speak to other analogies like your job examples necessarily, because those may be more complex and may include other issues not necessarily in the control of one individual. But I feel like shrugging Trump voters off as "Eh, whaddya gonna do? The average human is deficient" gives tacit permission for such things to occur and pushes a belief that those situations are unavoidable. Maybe it's just the optimistic educator in me, but I think the vast majority of people can overcome laziness given the right motivation. If those voters were passionate enough to vote, then there's surely some way to make them passionate enough to look up a few things before they vote. That's not to say that they're going to be master fact-checkers or change their political affiliation, but I don't feel like the best way to address the situation is to give them a pass.
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On August 02 2017 23:45 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2017 23:38 Mohdoo wrote:On August 02 2017 23:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 02 2017 22:06 m4ini wrote:On August 02 2017 17:38 LegalLord wrote:
Trump is little more than the caricature that the Republicans have been building all these years come to life. It is not by some genius of persuasion or influence that he became president, but by the ability to self-fund a chaotic mess of campaign, promise everything the Republicans always have, and have a knack for drawing attention to oneself. It's as funny as it is sad that things went this way. That's pretty much it. You can't even blame voters really. Trump is also not a caricature of the republicans, it's what republicans have become for the most part. I said over and over again that being conservative is one (perfectly fine) thing, but being "republican" is something different. Of course there's some actual conservatives in the republican party, with (decent) conservative views, but overall the republican party is just a bunch of old farts that care more about catering to their lobbies and fucking everyone over who's not remotely rich. Conservative != party over country. Republicans are a clown show, and they prove it over and over again. In fact, the last election race showed how uninformed and disconnected from reality republican politicians generally are. The only thing I disagree with you on, in this post, is that voters are blameless in this situation. While the Republican leadership deserves plenty of blame, I also think that the voters who put those Republicans (and Trump) in office share the responsibility. The voters never educated themselves. You may as well blame janitors for being janitors or a technician for never being an engineer. These people are the people they are...because of the people they are. It is a somewhat inescapable reality that many people will never be any better than the people they become by just kind of going through the motions of life. Most people don't push themselves, try to grow or feel any amount of internal motivation to make the world a better place. The average human is really, really, reallllly deficient. This is a really negative view of humanity that I constantly try to avoid. This is part of ongoing US narrative about drive and achievement being a virtue, while being content is considered amoral. We spend a lot of time degrading the quite dignity of going to work every day and simply providing for yourself and family. And being satisfied with that existence.
Sorry, I made an edit because I could see how I would be seen as demonizing janitors and technicians. They are not bad and no one should look down on them. Not every single person should be expected to be an astronaut. Someone who teaches elementary school math is straight up not an astronaut. An astronaut would likely be a really shitty kindergarten teacher.
But in my eyes, when it comes to things like government and changing the world, there are an enormous amount of people who are plain and simply wired to be followers. There are a huge amount of people who can't even grasp the idea of being significant or that their views and beliefs matter in the grand scheme of things. These people are totally content to just clock in, clock out, go home and enjoy their family's company, then die some day.
I do think it is reprehensible and I hugely look down on not participating in political discourse. I do not look down on people who take certain career paths. But similar to the way people are straight up never going to switch between astronaut and teacher, these people I am describing are never going to earn their right to live in a democracy by participating in it.
Edit: And to clarify, I do not believe voting is sufficient to be deemed "participating" in democracy. I think participation in democracy requires research, discourse and a commitment to determining the best way a society should operate.
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On August 02 2017 23:26 Plansix wrote:
Love it when officials refuse to spend the money given to them by elected officials in a unilateral effort to shrink the size of government. No chance that will end up getting someone hurt or killed.
it's a tough question; while these particular monies sound like perhaps they should be spent; it's also the case that congress sometimes authorizes spending on things that really shouldn't be spent on, and some way of cutting down on the waste would be nice. Like congress ordering lots of tanks which the army has said it doesn't even want or need or have a use for.
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Government structures were designed to provide stability. From tribes to kings. People want that stability to be able to survive in this world, which is still a terrifying, heartless place. Government makes the world less harsh and softens the impact of disasters, both natural and human. People want to make decisions about its direction, but only when called upon. Politics is high stakes and has impact. People used to say “I am not political” because the act of being in politics was sometimes dangerous. Like being pro-labor back in the 1900s. People had reason to not be involved until asked and still do. They want to live their life and vote for the best person possible every 2-4 years. The problem now, as I view it, is that politics is 24/7 and elections are eternal.
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On August 02 2017 23:59 zlefin wrote:it's a tough question; while these particular monies sound like perhaps they should be spent; it's also the case that congress sometimes authorizes spending on things that really shouldn't be spent on, and some way of cutting down on the waste would be nice. Like congress ordering lots of tanks which the army has said it doesn't even want or need or have a use for.
I look at this story like you would someone who saves up PTO. If they don't use it, they lose it. And in this case, if you don't spend $80mil, you're budget next time around might be smaller and it'll continue to shrink. I think it's a good idea on things that don't need extra funding (military spending is ridiculous).
That $80mil could be used for infrastructure purposes (not that dumb blasted border wall), or education funding (which won't happen with devos as head).
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On August 03 2017 00:04 Plansix wrote:
Government structures were designed to provide stability. From tribes to kings. People want that stability to be able to survive in this world, which is still a terrifying, heartless place. Government makes the world less harsh and softens the impact of disasters, both natural and human. People want to make decisions about its direction, but only when called upon. Politics is high stakes and has impact. People used to say “I am not political” because the act of being in politics was sometimes dangerous. Like being pro-labor back in the 1900s. People had reason to not be involved until asked and still do. They want to live their life and vote for the best person possible every 2-4 years. The problem now, as I view it, is that politics is 24/7 and elections are eternal.
If it is high impact, and is something they did nothing to deserve (some woman shit these people out and they ended up in a fully developed society), then they owe it to the people who built it to continue their legacy and ensure it is put to good use.
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On August 03 2017 00:10 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2017 00:04 Plansix wrote:
Government structures were designed to provide stability. From tribes to kings. People want that stability to be able to survive in this world, which is still a terrifying, heartless place. Government makes the world less harsh and softens the impact of disasters, both natural and human. People want to make decisions about its direction, but only when called upon. Politics is high stakes and has impact. People used to say “I am not political” because the act of being in politics was sometimes dangerous. Like being pro-labor back in the 1900s. People had reason to not be involved until asked and still do. They want to live their life and vote for the best person possible every 2-4 years. The problem now, as I view it, is that politics is 24/7 and elections are eternal. If it is high impact, and is something they did nothing to deserve (some woman shit these people out and they ended up in a fully developed society), then they owe it to the people who built it to continue their legacy and ensure it is put to good use.
Please explain to me all the things you did to deserve the standard of living you enjoy? My sister is raising 2 children and running her own business. Her husband is working and doing the book keeping for my sister’s company. They have no time for politics year round. And they don’t owe shit to anybody. They show up and vote when it matters. Being able to participate in politics as a substantive level is still a privilege, not something we all can do. That is why we have a representative government, advocacy groups and so on.
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On August 03 2017 00:18 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2017 00:10 Mohdoo wrote:On August 03 2017 00:04 Plansix wrote:
Government structures were designed to provide stability. From tribes to kings. People want that stability to be able to survive in this world, which is still a terrifying, heartless place. Government makes the world less harsh and softens the impact of disasters, both natural and human. People want to make decisions about its direction, but only when called upon. Politics is high stakes and has impact. People used to say “I am not political” because the act of being in politics was sometimes dangerous. Like being pro-labor back in the 1900s. People had reason to not be involved until asked and still do. They want to live their life and vote for the best person possible every 2-4 years. The problem now, as I view it, is that politics is 24/7 and elections are eternal. If it is high impact, and is something they did nothing to deserve (some woman shit these people out and they ended up in a fully developed society), then they owe it to the people who built it to continue their legacy and ensure it is put to good use. Please explain to me all the things you did to deserve the standard of living you enjoy? My sister is raising 2 children and running her own business. Her husband is working and doing the book keeping for my sister’s company. They have no time for politics year round. And they don’t owe shit to anybody. They show up and vote when it matters. Being able to participate in politics as a substantive level is still a privilege, not something we all can do. That is why we have a representative government, advocacy groups and so on.
I don't view your sister's life as more difficult than my own or many of the other people who have the will to be politically active. Her decision to or not to participate in politics is purely her own and has nothing to do with capability. Being "busy" is in no world an acceptable reason to not be politically active. She decides when she says "and that's enough". Many very, very busy people still recognize the value and importance of political involvement. She decides what effort she wants to put into what. I have no idea what she does politically, but I think that even I don't do enough. I should be doing more. We all should.
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Has it occurred to you guys that R voters don't vote R because they're ignorant and need to educated? This discussion is like a slightly friendlier version of "deplorables."
The median income of Trump voters was higher than the median income of Clinton supporters, and better educated too.
Source
Guys, regardless of the narrative on TL, the Mitt Romney Republicans didn't all die of some ultra-exclusive plague between 2012 and 2016. They're still out there. And a large proportion of the Dem base are urban minorities (comparable to the rural R's you guys spend so much time patronizing) and students, both of which are groups that are generally politically unsophisticated. Go patronize them too.
The issue is that elections are binary, and that Trump seemed more appealing than Hillary at the time, even to educated anti-Trump Republicans.
I also think you guys are forgetting, in the liberal rush to say "I told you so", that it wasn't a foregone conclusion in November that Trump's presidency was going to turn out like it has. Nobody was sure if he was going to act more presidential post-election, or what his policy priorities would be. The unknown Republican is better than the certainly bad Hillary, was a lot of R's perspective.
If you think this is just me being an apologist (even though I didn't even vote for Trump), read the post-election news when everyone was eagerly awaiting for his Cabinet picks so they could try to get an idea of where his presidency would go. Nobody thought he was going to be firing half of them and marginalizing the other half in favor of his family.
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On August 03 2017 00:23 mozoku wrote:Has it occurred to you guys that R voters don't vote R because they're ignorant and need to educated? This discussion is like a slightly friendlier version of "deplorables." The median income of Trump voters was higher than the median income of Clinton supporters, and better educated too. Source
This is a shitty argument because it ignores the wealth of statistics, polling etc that indicates where support for democrats shifted to republicans. The groups we are talking about, the ones who were overpaid for doing jack shit, are the ones who made the big difference in this election. Romney voters were never going to be Clinton voters and never were. There was a populist shift away from faith in our government and they wanted to flip the table. They did.
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I love how mozoku drops in and makes arguments against points no one is currently discussing, but acts like someone is.
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On August 03 2017 00:22 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2017 00:18 Plansix wrote:On August 03 2017 00:10 Mohdoo wrote:On August 03 2017 00:04 Plansix wrote:
Government structures were designed to provide stability. From tribes to kings. People want that stability to be able to survive in this world, which is still a terrifying, heartless place. Government makes the world less harsh and softens the impact of disasters, both natural and human. People want to make decisions about its direction, but only when called upon. Politics is high stakes and has impact. People used to say “I am not political” because the act of being in politics was sometimes dangerous. Like being pro-labor back in the 1900s. People had reason to not be involved until asked and still do. They want to live their life and vote for the best person possible every 2-4 years. The problem now, as I view it, is that politics is 24/7 and elections are eternal. If it is high impact, and is something they did nothing to deserve (some woman shit these people out and they ended up in a fully developed society), then they owe it to the people who built it to continue their legacy and ensure it is put to good use. Please explain to me all the things you did to deserve the standard of living you enjoy? My sister is raising 2 children and running her own business. Her husband is working and doing the book keeping for my sister’s company. They have no time for politics year round. And they don’t owe shit to anybody. They show up and vote when it matters. Being able to participate in politics as a substantive level is still a privilege, not something we all can do. That is why we have a representative government, advocacy groups and so on. I don't view your sister's life as more difficult than my own or many of the other people who have the will to be politically active. Her decision to or not to participate in politics is purely her own and has nothing to do with capability. Being "busy" is in no world an acceptable reason to not be politically active. She decides when she says "and that's enough". Many very, very busy people still recognize the value and importance of political involvement. She decides what effort she wants to put into what. I have no idea what she does politically, but I think that even I don't do enough. I should be doing more. We all should.
An interesting rule of thumb I have heard before is to mentally replace "I'm too busy" with "it's not a priority" whenever you use that explanation, and see if it still makes sense. Applies just fine here.
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United States43468 Posts
On August 03 2017 00:23 mozoku wrote:
I also think you guys are forgetting, in the liberal rush to say "I told you so", that it wasn't a foregone conclusion in November that Trump's presidency was going to turn out like it has. Nobody was sure if he was going to act more presidential post-election, or what his policy priorities would be.
You're projecting your own ignorance as if it was universal. By November we had absolutely no reason to doubt that Trump was anything other than what he had repeatedly shown himself to be.
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On August 03 2017 00:29 Plansix wrote:
I love how mozoku drops in and makes arguments against points no one is currently discussing, but acts like someone is.
I
V
The only thing I disagree with you on, in this post, is that voters are blameless in this situation. While the Republican leadership deserves plenty of blame, I also think that the voters who put those Republicans (and Trump) in office share the responsibility. The voters never educated themselves.
You may as well blame janitors for being janitors or a technician for never being an engineer. These people are the people they are...because of the people they are. It is a somewhat inescapable reality that many people will never be any better than the people they become by just kind of going through the motions of life. Most people don't push themselves, try to grow or feel any amount of internal motivation to make the world a better place. The average human is really, really, reallllly deficient.
If the only reason for someone's ignorance is laziness, then I have no problem blaming that person. I can't speak to other analogies like your job examples necessarily, because those may be more complex and may include other issues not necessarily in the control of one individual. But I feel like shrugging Trump voters off as "Eh, whaddya gonna do? The average human is deficient" gives tacit permission for such things to occur and pushes a belief that those situations are unavoidable. Maybe it's just the optimistic educator in me, but I think the vast majority of people can overcome laziness given the right motivation. If those voters were passionate enough to vote, then there's surely some way to make them passionate enough to look up a few things before they vote. That's not to say that they're going to be master fact-checkers or change their political affiliation, but I don't feel like the best way to address the situation is to give them a pass.
What was this discussion then?
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On August 03 2017 00:37 mozoku wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2017 00:29 Plansix wrote:
I love how mozoku drops in and makes arguments against points no one is currently discussing, but acts like someone is. I V Show nested quote +The only thing I disagree with you on, in this post, is that voters are blameless in this situation. While the Republican leadership deserves plenty of blame, I also think that the voters who put those Republicans (and Trump) in office share the responsibility. The voters never educated themselves. Show nested quote +You may as well blame janitors for being janitors or a technician for never being an engineer. These people are the people they are...because of the people they are. It is a somewhat inescapable reality that many people will never be any better than the people they become by just kind of going through the motions of life. Most people don't push themselves, try to grow or feel any amount of internal motivation to make the world a better place. The average human is really, really, reallllly deficient. Show nested quote +If the only reason for someone's ignorance is laziness, then I have no problem blaming that person. I can't speak to other analogies like your job examples necessarily, because those may be more complex and may include other issues not necessarily in the control of one individual. But I feel like shrugging Trump voters off as "Eh, whaddya gonna do? The average human is deficient" gives tacit permission for such things to occur and pushes a belief that those situations are unavoidable. Maybe it's just the optimistic educator in me, but I think the vast majority of people can overcome laziness given the right motivation. If those voters were passionate enough to vote, then there's surely some way to make them passionate enough to look up a few things before they vote. That's not to say that they're going to be master fact-checkers or change their political affiliation, but I don't feel like the best way to address the situation is to give them a pass. What was this discussion then?
It was about the swing voters who were mainly blue collar workers and tend to have limited education. This limited education is critical because it is a big reason they are unable to find work outside of their previously over-inflated salaries. These voters were given a false sense of importance and accomplishment. When it was taken away, they blamed the government and decided this billionaire guy probably knows what he's talking about. This conversation isn't about the xDaunts of the world. It is about the uncle who works at walmart and thinks the clinton foundation made coal illegal.
Edit: Also shoutout to GH: These same voters overwhelmingly rejected Clinton during the primary and are the reason Bernie did way better than some people expected. They went on to reject Clinton for a second time.
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On August 03 2017 00:37 mozoku wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2017 00:29 Plansix wrote:
I love how mozoku drops in and makes arguments against points no one is currently discussing, but acts like someone is. I V Show nested quote +The only thing I disagree with you on, in this post, is that voters are blameless in this situation. While the Republican leadership deserves plenty of blame, I also think that the voters who put those Republicans (and Trump) in office share the responsibility. The voters never educated themselves. Show nested quote +You may as well blame janitors for being janitors or a technician for never being an engineer. These people are the people they are...because of the people they are. It is a somewhat inescapable reality that many people will never be any better than the people they become by just kind of going through the motions of life. Most people don't push themselves, try to grow or feel any amount of internal motivation to make the world a better place. The average human is really, really, reallllly deficient. Show nested quote +If the only reason for someone's ignorance is laziness, then I have no problem blaming that person. I can't speak to other analogies like your job examples necessarily, because those may be more complex and may include other issues not necessarily in the control of one individual. But I feel like shrugging Trump voters off as "Eh, whaddya gonna do? The average human is deficient" gives tacit permission for such things to occur and pushes a belief that those situations are unavoidable. Maybe it's just the optimistic educator in me, but I think the vast majority of people can overcome laziness given the right motivation. If those voters were passionate enough to vote, then there's surely some way to make them passionate enough to look up a few things before they vote. That's not to say that they're going to be master fact-checkers or change their political affiliation, but I don't feel like the best way to address the situation is to give them a pass. What was this discussion then?
That was a discussion about voters in general and the increasing burden of being informed on the politics. You are right about the voting demographics for Trump and that they were educated and wealthy. And they voted for someone who promised to cut their taxes and lower the cost of healthcare through repeal of the ACA. He just happened to leave out the part that doing that would remove healthcare for millions of poor voters. If they didn’t know that was going to happen, I question their ability to do basic math. If they were aware, I guess they like paying more for healthcare on the back end.
This is like when we invaded Iraq and then the president and congress decided to push through with their tax cut as promised. And a lot of Republicans said it was fine because we could afford it. I’m sure they meant well, but I also have to question their ability think critically.
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On August 03 2017 00:41 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2017 00:37 mozoku wrote:On August 03 2017 00:29 Plansix wrote:
I love how mozoku drops in and makes arguments against points no one is currently discussing, but acts like someone is. I V The only thing I disagree with you on, in this post, is that voters are blameless in this situation. While the Republican leadership deserves plenty of blame, I also think that the voters who put those Republicans (and Trump) in office share the responsibility. The voters never educated themselves. You may as well blame janitors for being janitors or a technician for never being an engineer. These people are the people they are...because of the people they are. It is a somewhat inescapable reality that many people will never be any better than the people they become by just kind of going through the motions of life. Most people don't push themselves, try to grow or feel any amount of internal motivation to make the world a better place. The average human is really, really, reallllly deficient. If the only reason for someone's ignorance is laziness, then I have no problem blaming that person. I can't speak to other analogies like your job examples necessarily, because those may be more complex and may include other issues not necessarily in the control of one individual. But I feel like shrugging Trump voters off as "Eh, whaddya gonna do? The average human is deficient" gives tacit permission for such things to occur and pushes a belief that those situations are unavoidable. Maybe it's just the optimistic educator in me, but I think the vast majority of people can overcome laziness given the right motivation. If those voters were passionate enough to vote, then there's surely some way to make them passionate enough to look up a few things before they vote. That's not to say that they're going to be master fact-checkers or change their political affiliation, but I don't feel like the best way to address the situation is to give them a pass. What was this discussion then? It was about the swing voters who were mainly blue collar workers and tend to have limited education. This limited education is critical because it is a big reason they are unable to find work outside of their previously over-inflated salaries. These voters were given a false sense of importance and accomplishment. When it was taken away, they blamed the government and decided this billionaire guy probably knows what he's talking about. This conversation isn't about the xDaunts of the world. It is about the uncle who works at walmart and thinks the clinton foundation made coal illegal.
So we're discussing the willfully ignorant vs the accidental ignorant?
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On August 03 2017 00:34 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2017 00:23 mozoku wrote:
I also think you guys are forgetting, in the liberal rush to say "I told you so", that it wasn't a foregone conclusion in November that Trump's presidency was going to turn out like it has. Nobody was sure if he was going to act more presidential post-election, or what his policy priorities would be. You're projecting your own ignorance as if it was universal. By November we had absolutely no reason to doubt that Trump was anything other than what he had repeatedly shown himself to be.
Exactly what I already covered in that quote. People like you are in such a rush to say "I told you so!" that they ignore the realities of forecasting. Presidents at war with their own Congress are exceedingly rare. Unprecedented in the first 6 months, I believe. The Russia collusion investigation is totally unprecedented. His approval ratings are unprecedented. His inability to pass any serious legislation when his party controls Congress is unprecedented. He's not the first populist president in US history, so you can't claim that his populism made this inevitable either.
Nate Silver (a forecaster everyone here respects afaik) was writing about the irrationality of making certain predictions about the path of the Trump presidency as well.
If you were predicting this stuff in November, you're just an idiot who got lucky. Or a partisan shill calling "doomsday" who happened to be right. What has developed was not a rational high probability forecast based on the information available in November.
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On August 03 2017 01:04 mozoku wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2017 00:34 KwarK wrote:On August 03 2017 00:23 mozoku wrote:
I also think you guys are forgetting, in the liberal rush to say "I told you so", that it wasn't a foregone conclusion in November that Trump's presidency was going to turn out like it has. Nobody was sure if he was going to act more presidential post-election, or what his policy priorities would be. You're projecting your own ignorance as if it was universal. By November we had absolutely no reason to doubt that Trump was anything other than what he had repeatedly shown himself to be. Exactly what I already covered in that quote. People like you are in such a rush to say "I told you so!" that they ignore the realities of forecasting. Presidents at war with their own Congress are exceedingly rare. Unprecedented in the first 6 months, I believe. The Russia collusion investigation is totally unprecedented. His approval ratings are unprecedented. His inability to pass any serious legislation when his party controls Congress is unprecedented. He's not the first populist president in US history, so you can't claim that his populism made this inevitable either. Nate Silver (a forecaster everyone here respects afaik) was writing about the irrationality of making certain predictions about the path of the Trump presidency as well. If you were predicting this stuff in November, you're just an idiot who got lucky. Or a partisan shill calling "doomsday" who happened to be right. What has developed was not a rational high probability forecast based on the information available in November.
You're making yourself out to be a trump apologist, even if that isn't your intention. If you knew who he was coming into November, and what he stated publicly on the trail, then this is no surprise. The biggest surprise was that he won. The rest was just a matter of time because this is his character. He didn't lie as to who he was, just his policies (which he never had).
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On August 03 2017 01:04 mozoku wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2017 00:34 KwarK wrote:On August 03 2017 00:23 mozoku wrote:
I also think you guys are forgetting, in the liberal rush to say "I told you so", that it wasn't a foregone conclusion in November that Trump's presidency was going to turn out like it has. Nobody was sure if he was going to act more presidential post-election, or what his policy priorities would be. You're projecting your own ignorance as if it was universal. By November we had absolutely no reason to doubt that Trump was anything other than what he had repeatedly shown himself to be. Exactly what I already covered in that quote. People like you are in such a rush to say "I told you so!" that they ignore the realities of forecasting. Presidents at war with their own Congress are exceedingly rare. Unprecedented in the first 6 months, I believe. The Russia collusion investigation is totally unprecedented. His approval ratings are unprecedented. His inability to pass any serious legislation when his party controls Congress is unprecedented. He's not the first populist president in US history, so you can't claim that his populism made this inevitable either. Nate Silver (a forecaster everyone here respects afaik) was writing about the his high uncertainty of how Trump's presidency would develop as well. If you were predicting this stuff in November, you're just an idiot who got lucky. Or a partisan shill calling "doomsday" who happened to be right. What has developed was not a rational high probability forecast based on the information available in November.
Yes, Trump has unprecedented opposition in Congress, but he hasn't done himself any favors. No one is making him pimp these inept healthcare bills. No one is preventing him from at least attempting to form his own congressional coalitions to move an agenda forward. And no one can claim that the Trump Administration has done a good job handling this Russia nonsense. To say the least, there is a lot of room for improvement on Trump's end. It's too soon to declare Trump's presidency a failure, but at some point, this period of Trump learning on the job needs to end.
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EPT
