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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 04 2016 02:49 ticklishmusic wrote: Florida early voting just passed the 2012 early voting total. Just further proves hate motivates more than love, broadly speaking. Make people scared and angry and they'll do what you want them to do. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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biology]major
United States2253 Posts
On November 04 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote: NPR reported this morning that unaffiliated voters are coming out in high numbers for early voting and there is no way to predict who they voted for with any accuracy. This is across several states. It's the shadow Trump support. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
I am sure you believe that. But people with experienced and better educated on the subject have said there is no way to tell. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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CannonsNCarriers
United States638 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:01 LegalLord wrote: The 538 model shows that Hillary has no buffer left right now. The three swing states Trump needs to win to even have a chance are all 50/50. He needs a hat trick and then to pick off a state Clinton is dominating after that. | ||
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biology]major
United States2253 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:01 CannonsNCarriers wrote: Anyone else kind of appalled at the FBI agents leaking stuff to the press? When FBI agents can't make a case the DOJ attorneys will prosecute, now they just got to Brett Baier and get their accusations aired on FOX even though they were shut down for lack of facts. Comey has utterly lost control of his agency and has to go. Or maybe they believe they have a case and the DOJ is compromised, an even more likely possibility than the FBI being compromised. | ||
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:01 CannonsNCarriers wrote: Anyone else kind of appalled at the FBI agents leaking stuff to the press? When FBI agents can't make a case the DOJ attorneys will prosecute, now they just got to Brett Baier and get their accusations aired on FOX even though they were shut down for lack of facts. Comey has utterly lost control of his agency and has to go. mildly appalled, not that surprised though, given how partisan many people are atm. They might well get in trouble for those leaks, which I wouldn't mind. I don't think Comey, or anyone else could've stopped such leaks; the country is sufficiently polarized that some people will feel the need to leak, even if it jeopardizes their career. The best that can be done is to punish the leakers (if they violated the law and/or agency rules). | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:01 CannonsNCarriers wrote: Anyone else kind of appalled at the FBI agents leaking stuff to the press? When FBI agents can't make a case the DOJ attorneys will prosecute, now they just got to Brett Baier and get their accusations aired on FOX even though they were shut down for lack of facts. Comey has utterly lost control of his agency and has to go. There is a strong case that the agents who did that should lose their jobs. Of course they will be promoted if Trump gets elected and supporters will claim they were patriots, risking it all to save the country. Which is exactly how abuse of government powers is justified. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:01 LegalLord wrote: The 538 model shows that Hillary has no buffer left right now. Virginia and Pennsylvania are looking pretty damn safe. Without those, Trump is hosed. Am I missing something? | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:04 Plansix wrote: The three swing states Trump needs to win to even have a chance are all 50/50. He needs a hat trick and then to pick off a state Clinton is dominating after that. The results in those states are not independent; if the polls underestimate Trump support in one state, it will underestimate Trump support in all states. From a statistical perspective I'd say now is a good time to be worried if you have a lot invested in a Hillary win. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:07 Mohdoo wrote: Virginia and Pennsylvania are looking pretty damn safe. Without those, Trump is hosed. Am I missing something? NH is like 65% Hillary; if Trump wins all the red states and then wins NH then he wins the election. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:06 biology]major wrote: Or maybe they believe they have a case and the DOJ is compromised, an even more likely possibility than the FBI being compromised. That isn’t their job. We didn’t grant them the power of the FBI to enforce their personal agenda when they don’t get exactly what they want. If they can’t make the case to other members of the FBI and DOJ, they have no business bringing the matter to the public using the credibility provided to them by the FBI. | ||
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biology]major
United States2253 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:08 LegalLord wrote: The results in those states are not independent; if the polls underestimate Trump support in one state, it will underestimate Trump support in all states. From a statistical perspective I'd say now is a good time to be worried if you have a lot invested in a Hillary win. Nah, just let everyone underestimate Trump as per usual and stay complacent. No need to worry guys, the fortress is strong and Trump has less than a 5% chance of winning. | ||
KwarK
United States44389 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:07 Mohdoo wrote: Virginia and Pennsylvania are looking pretty damn safe. Without those, Trump is hosed. Am I missing something? If he goes 6/6, Maine state vote and NH he can win. Virginia and Pennsylvania were important because the assumption was Trump might not go 6/6. It's looking like he may now. They're all coinflips but it's likely they're also correlated so it might go really well for him or really badly. The odds are still good on "really badly" but it's possible it'll go well. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:09 LegalLord wrote: NH is like 65% Hillary; if Trump wins all the red states and then wins NH then he wins the election. If you look at the data for NH, it doesn't appear there are a lot of polls going for Trump. A few ties. It is worrying, but not the worst. | ||
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KwarK
United States44389 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:09 LegalLord wrote: NH is like 65% Hillary; if Trump wins all the red states and then wins NH then he wins the election. And Maine state vote, he needs that to not draw. | ||
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biology]major
United States2253 Posts
On November 04 2016 03:09 Plansix wrote: That isn’t their job. We didn’t grant them the power of the FBI to enforce their personal agenda when they don’t get exactly what they want. If they can’t make the case to other members of the FBI and DOJ, they have no business bringing the matter to the public using the credibility provided to them by the FBI. If an organization like the FBI is leaking, that just shows you how fucked things are. I would directly suspect the most partisan actor in all of this, who is Loretta lynch and her minions, not the FBI. It's not their place, but how else would a compromised DOJ be fixed? Are you saying it is better to just let the corruption continue? I would rather distrust the DOJ than the FBI, not because it fits my narrative here, but because there is plenty of evidence that shows collusion and the meeting with bill/lynch is the icing on the cake. Optics are bad here and your attacks against the FBI are laughable. | ||
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