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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On November 03 2016 05:44 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:41 Doodsmack wrote:On November 03 2016 05:37 biology]major wrote:On November 03 2016 05:33 pmh wrote:
Trumps gonna win,its a done deal. The salt will be real on this forum in 2 weeks. It is a fundamental downplaying of corruption in government and the dishonesty of HRC and the incredible exaggeration of Trump's negatives to the point where the liberals are detached from America's problems. Trump is going to win, and in 4 years USA will be the same or better, and HRC will be in jail. What do you think about Saudi Arabia being allowed to get nukes? What do you think of the recent leaks showing DOJ attorney tipping off Podesta about hearings and what questions will get asked? Is that really how low the bar is for the great institutions of this country? This isn't fucking Nigeria, this is the USA, it has standards and is supposed to be a free and just society. Stop obsessing over the personality of a man you despise and see the country with the eyes of an average american.
hearings are public knowledge.
Plenty of questions get forwarded because otherwise everything is answered by a 'I do not know'. Especially when they are about events years in the past.
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On November 03 2016 05:33 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:28 Nyxisto wrote:On November 03 2016 05:16 hunts wrote:On November 03 2016 05:13 Nyxisto wrote:
Most people from the Bernie or Bust camp won't actually feel the negative consequences of a Trump presidency because they're well off. For them political activity is simply a hobby, they don't care about power and don't actually want to govern, it's the same tenured radical demographic you find at every university. From what I've personally seen, it seems to be the opposite. The majority of bernie or bust people I've seen are not well off and work in low paying jobs that are not particularly stable and will be some of the first to go in the case of economic trouble. Unfortunately, igne, trump does stand a chance. A very small chance, but still a chance. The fact that he has any sort of chance sickens me to my stomach and makes me wish a horrible death onto everyone stupid enough to support him. But if enough people feel like you and GH and decide "we don't want clinton, we want to hold out for our unrealistic option." Then it is possible that we get a fascist dictator in office. Hilllary's support among the hispanic and black voter base seems rather strong and steady, and I guess it's fair to say that these demographics are, at least on average, worse off than the white voterbase which was Bernie's strongest support within the Demographic party by some considerable margin. And yes a Trump victory is still possible, have people seriously forgotten the Brexit already? It's not like Clinton is leading by 12 points nationwide. From what I've seen of the early voting exit polls, Hillary is hemorrhaging support from the very minority groups that she needs to win compared to the 2012 and 2008 elections. Black turnout has been particularly bad for her. I think it was a poll out of Florida that showed not only that black turnout was significantly down, but that she was only getting like 68% of the black vote and Trump was getting 20%.
I've followed this guy who has some interesting data on Florida in the recent posts and seems to suggest that the statements about African American turnout are premature, also Hispanics are vastly outperforming their earlier numbers.
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This sounds oddly familiar.
In North Carolina, where presidential candidates Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R) are in a tight race, black turnout is down 16 percent from this point in 2012, while white turnout is up 15 percent.
And in Florida, black voters’ share of the early voting turnout is 15 percent, 10 points lower than it was in 2012. Clinton and Trump are also locked in a tight race in that state.
The drop in early voting comes after black turnout soared in President Obama's two electoral wins.
Electing the first black president in U.S. history in 2008 and securing his reelection four years later inspired heavy turnout among black voters in both elections.
Clinton is also popular with black voters, but she does not appear to be inspiring the level of enthusiasm and support that was behind Obama
Source
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On November 03 2016 05:46 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:34 Rebs wrote:On November 03 2016 05:31 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 05:23 Rebs wrote:On November 03 2016 05:20 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 05:18 Rebs wrote:On November 03 2016 05:16 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 05:08 KwarK wrote:On November 03 2016 05:07 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 03:53 hunts wrote:
[quote]
What good is a vote that makes you feel good about yourself when you are standing by while a dictator potentially gets into power? hence the coercion . . . Being coerced by your own moral compass preventing you from standing by and doing nothing when a figure like Drumpf threatens the basic civil rights of immigrants, Muslims, minorities, gays, lesbians, trans people and so forth is not really coercion. It's just being a good person. 1) trump has no chance 2) a coerced choice is not a free choice. you can tell me that voting for clinton is the only moral choice but you can't then tell me it's a free choice I dont follow this.. you're predicating your second point on the idea that by virtue of a choice being moral, it becomes the only choice ? That doesnt seem right. well if you want to be radical about it, there is no such thing as coercion right? even w a gun pointed at my head i can always choose the gun. Actually the only thing thats radical about this is your leap from morality to gun in terms of what determines the choice. I dont see the equivalence here in the argument you are making. equivalence to what? i said "coerced" not a literal gun to the head. because you are so obtuse ill give you a metaphor. if there is only one moral option the choice is coerced by a ghostly gun pointed at your immortal soul. you are only "free" to choose the moral option or choose spiritual death I mean I dont get it still, this is a pretty stupid metaphor, you are saying that an immoral decision will kill your soul/spirit when that really isnt the case. People make immoral decisions more often than they change their pyjamas. I dont see how voting for Drumpf even with the knowledge that the decisions to do so maybe immoral is spiritual death. Anyway lets leave it, I think your reasoning is stupid and we can agree to disagree on it. do you not know what the word coercion means or are you just playing the idiot?
Slow down bro, just because i dont agree with your befuddling idea that someone who is making a moral choice is being "coerced" and not just being a normal human being you dont have to occupy some
Please spare me the "coercion is coercion" and none of us are free bullshit you are peddling. Im out, this discussion is absurd. This sort of decision making doesnt impinge on your choice to be free. Pointing a gun at you does. Its that simple, anyway fuck this is god aweful stupid.
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Being only 16% less than the first black president is fucking amazing. I do not expect any president to ever match Obama's black turnout.
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On November 03 2016 05:49 GreenHorizons wrote:This sounds oddly familiar. Show nested quote +In North Carolina, where presidential candidates Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R) are in a tight race, black turnout is down 16 percent from this point in 2012, while white turnout is up 15 percent.
And in Florida, black voters’ share of the early voting turnout is 15 percent, 10 points lower than it was in 2012. Clinton and Trump are also locked in a tight race in that state.
The drop in early voting comes after black turnout soared in President Obama's two electoral wins.
Electing the first black president in U.S. history in 2008 and securing his reelection four years later inspired heavy turnout among black voters in both elections.
Clinton is also popular with black voters, but she does not appear to be inspiring the level of enthusiasm and support that was behind Obama Source
Regardless of the result of this election, I wonder when Democrats are going to figure out that they can't take the black vote for granted. I don't think anyone credible predicted that Hillary would draw Obama's numbers from 2008 and 2012.
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United States44256 Posts
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On November 03 2016 05:44 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:41 Doodsmack wrote:On November 03 2016 05:37 biology]major wrote:On November 03 2016 05:33 pmh wrote:
Trumps gonna win,its a done deal. The salt will be real on this forum in 2 weeks. It is a fundamental downplaying of corruption in government and the dishonesty of HRC and the incredible exaggeration of Trump's negatives to the point where the liberals are detached from America's problems. Trump is going to win, and in 4 years USA will be the same or better, and HRC will be in jail. What do you think about Saudi Arabia being allowed to get nukes? What do you think of the recent leaks showing DOJ attorney tipping off Podesta about hearings and what questions will get asked? Is that really how low the bar is for the great institutions of this country? This isn't fucking Nigeria, this is the USA, it has standards and is supposed to be a free and just society. Stop obsessing over the personality of a man you despise and see the country with the eyes of an average american.
You're asking me to comment on the difference between Saudi Arabia getting nukes (Donald's words FYI) and a DOJ attorney emailing Hillary's campaign chair about public information?
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On November 03 2016 05:44 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:41 Doodsmack wrote:On November 03 2016 05:37 biology]major wrote:On November 03 2016 05:33 pmh wrote:
Trumps gonna win,its a done deal. The salt will be real on this forum in 2 weeks. It is a fundamental downplaying of corruption in government and the dishonesty of HRC and the incredible exaggeration of Trump's negatives to the point where the liberals are detached from America's problems. Trump is going to win, and in 4 years USA will be the same or better, and HRC will be in jail. What do you think about Saudi Arabia being allowed to get nukes? The most dangerous country in the world will get competition.
Sounds like a great idea.
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On November 03 2016 05:53 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:44 biology]major wrote:On November 03 2016 05:41 Doodsmack wrote:On November 03 2016 05:37 biology]major wrote:On November 03 2016 05:33 pmh wrote:
Trumps gonna win,its a done deal. The salt will be real on this forum in 2 weeks. It is a fundamental downplaying of corruption in government and the dishonesty of HRC and the incredible exaggeration of Trump's negatives to the point where the liberals are detached from America's problems. Trump is going to win, and in 4 years USA will be the same or better, and HRC will be in jail. What do you think about Saudi Arabia being allowed to get nukes? What do you think of the recent leaks showing DOJ attorney tipping off Podesta about hearings and what questions will get asked? Is that really how low the bar is for the great institutions of this country? This isn't fucking Nigeria, this is the USA, it has standards and is supposed to be a free and just society. Stop obsessing over the personality of a man you despise and see the country with the eyes of an average american. You're asking me to comment on the difference between Saudi Arabia getting nukes (Donald's words FYI) and a DOJ attorney emailing Hillary's campaign chair about public information?
one is actively happening and the second is a hypothetical. I would highly disagree with such a reality, where SA has nukes, but foreign policy is complex and I am not even going to attempt to take a stab at it, other posters in this thread can weigh in if they want.
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On November 03 2016 05:52 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:49 GreenHorizons wrote:This sounds oddly familiar. In North Carolina, where presidential candidates Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R) are in a tight race, black turnout is down 16 percent from this point in 2012, while white turnout is up 15 percent.
And in Florida, black voters’ share of the early voting turnout is 15 percent, 10 points lower than it was in 2012. Clinton and Trump are also locked in a tight race in that state.
The drop in early voting comes after black turnout soared in President Obama's two electoral wins.
Electing the first black president in U.S. history in 2008 and securing his reelection four years later inspired heavy turnout among black voters in both elections.
Clinton is also popular with black voters, but she does not appear to be inspiring the level of enthusiasm and support that was behind Obama Source Regardless of the result of this election, I wonder when Democrats are going to figure out that they can't take the black vote for granted. I don't think anyone credible predicted that Hillary would draw Obama's numbers from 2008 and 2012.
Maybe when the Republican nominee stops assuming that all black people live in the inner city?
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On November 03 2016 05:47 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:44 biology]major wrote:On November 03 2016 05:41 Doodsmack wrote:On November 03 2016 05:37 biology]major wrote:On November 03 2016 05:33 pmh wrote:
Trumps gonna win,its a done deal. The salt will be real on this forum in 2 weeks. It is a fundamental downplaying of corruption in government and the dishonesty of HRC and the incredible exaggeration of Trump's negatives to the point where the liberals are detached from America's problems. Trump is going to win, and in 4 years USA will be the same or better, and HRC will be in jail. What do you think about Saudi Arabia being allowed to get nukes? What do you think of the recent leaks showing DOJ attorney tipping off Podesta about hearings and what questions will get asked? Is that really how low the bar is for the great institutions of this country? This isn't fucking Nigeria, this is the USA, it has standards and is supposed to be a free and just society. Stop obsessing over the personality of a man you despise and see the country with the eyes of an average american. hearings are public knowledge. Plenty of questions get forwarded because otherwise everything is answered by a 'I do not know'. Especially when they are about events years in the past.
It is like people don’t understand that attorneys communicate with the other side of the investigation and tell who is going to testify at a hearing. We could be held in contempt if we refused to tell the other side who are witnesses would be at a hearing.
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On November 03 2016 05:49 GreenHorizons wrote:This sounds oddly familiar. Show nested quote +In North Carolina, where presidential candidates Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R) are in a tight race, black turnout is down 16 percent from this point in 2012, while white turnout is up 15 percent.
And in Florida, black voters’ share of the early voting turnout is 15 percent, 10 points lower than it was in 2012. Clinton and Trump are also locked in a tight race in that state.
The drop in early voting comes after black turnout soared in President Obama's two electoral wins.
Electing the first black president in U.S. history in 2008 and securing his reelection four years later inspired heavy turnout among black voters in both elections.
Clinton is also popular with black voters, but she does not appear to be inspiring the level of enthusiasm and support that was behind Obama Source
Does this make you happy?
Also, I fully expect her to get more Hispanics than Obama, if only because Trump terrifies them.
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On November 03 2016 05:46 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:45 zeo wrote:On November 03 2016 05:45 KwarK wrote:On November 03 2016 05:43 zeo wrote:On November 03 2016 05:33 pmh wrote:
Trump is going to win,its a done deal. The salt will be real on this forum in 2 weeks. Yeah, its pretty obvious with the rats in the polling industry jumping ship en-mass this close to the election. They can't bullshit the numbers anymore. Ban bet? If Trump wins I take 2 weeks. If Clinton wins, you take a month? :p Didn't you already say you were going to get unmodded if Clinton loses? No? Why on earth would I say that? I do have a banbet with GGTemplar though.
Oh ok, don't know where I thought I saw that.
Don't believe in ban bets btw
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On November 03 2016 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
Being only 16% less than the first black president is fucking amazing. I do not expect any president to ever match Obama's black turnout.
It would be important to note that 16% is comparing to re-election 2012, not the election of the first black president.
Otherwise the word "duh" comes to mind. But if I'm reading these polls accurately, most of them are assuming at least Obama's 2012 electorate, which Hillary doesn't seem to be getting. It's certainly more troublesome than Hillary's camp is letting on.
On November 03 2016 05:56 On_Slaught wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:49 GreenHorizons wrote:This sounds oddly familiar. In North Carolina, where presidential candidates Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R) are in a tight race, black turnout is down 16 percent from this point in 2012, while white turnout is up 15 percent.
And in Florida, black voters’ share of the early voting turnout is 15 percent, 10 points lower than it was in 2012. Clinton and Trump are also locked in a tight race in that state.
The drop in early voting comes after black turnout soared in President Obama's two electoral wins.
Electing the first black president in U.S. history in 2008 and securing his reelection four years later inspired heavy turnout among black voters in both elections.
Clinton is also popular with black voters, but she does not appear to be inspiring the level of enthusiasm and support that was behind Obama Source Does this make you happy? Also, I fully expect her to get more Hispanics than Obama, if only because Trump terrifies them.
I believe the song goes "I wish I was wrong"
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People who have been claiming for weeks Trump has no chance are completely delusional.
The magnitude of the delusion is real. You think 20% of intellectual America is pissed off? Wait till you see 40% of pissed off rednecks and lower-low class.
Most of the things the media keeps announcing would "sink" Trump, especially the whole pussygate affair, hardly made a dent. In fact some of it even helped.
This will be a crazy tight race because people who want Trump to win are on a fucking mission, whereas a major share of those who were supposed to vote for Hillary are jaded or don't give two fucks irl, or will have their hairdresser or cair repair or soft depression or tennis yoga and "forget" to vote.
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On November 03 2016 05:34 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:32 KwarK wrote:
Hillary has no more margin of error, a Trump win is very possible at this point. Hopefully the next 5 days will see a return to the norm with her normal 4 point margin being restored but if not then a Trump win is absolutely within polling error. The polls, if they are completely correct, suggest Hillary should still win. But the pollsters don't claim that their polls are correct, they claim that their polls are correct to a certain margin of error and that margin of error is now smaller than the shift Trump needs. I am constantly amazed how easy it is for people to forget about events a week in the past and change their opinions so quickly when the 2 sides are so very far apart.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/01/beware-phantom-swings-why-dramatic-swings-in-the-p/
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On November 03 2016 05:55 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:53 Doodsmack wrote:On November 03 2016 05:44 biology]major wrote:On November 03 2016 05:41 Doodsmack wrote:On November 03 2016 05:37 biology]major wrote:On November 03 2016 05:33 pmh wrote:
Trumps gonna win,its a done deal. The salt will be real on this forum in 2 weeks. It is a fundamental downplaying of corruption in government and the dishonesty of HRC and the incredible exaggeration of Trump's negatives to the point where the liberals are detached from America's problems. Trump is going to win, and in 4 years USA will be the same or better, and HRC will be in jail. What do you think about Saudi Arabia being allowed to get nukes? What do you think of the recent leaks showing DOJ attorney tipping off Podesta about hearings and what questions will get asked? Is that really how low the bar is for the great institutions of this country? This isn't fucking Nigeria, this is the USA, it has standards and is supposed to be a free and just society. Stop obsessing over the personality of a man you despise and see the country with the eyes of an average american. You're asking me to comment on the difference between Saudi Arabia getting nukes (Donald's words FYI) and a DOJ attorney emailing Hillary's campaign chair about public information? one is actively happening and the second is a hypothetical. I would highly disagree with such a reality, where SA has nukes, but foreign policy is complex and I am not even going to attempt to take a stab at it, other posters in this thread can weigh in if they want.
The second is the desired policy of your chosen commander in chief.
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I scoff in general at people claiming certainty about the outcome, instead of probabilistic estimates with considerable uncertainty.
People are far too sure of things in general, iirc it's one of those well-documented biases.
it's hard to get back to bipartisanship, cuz it takes two to be bipartisan.
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The drop in black voter turnout from 25% of the early voting electorate in Florida to 15% of the early voting electorate is positively devastating for Hillary. That 10% less of the electorate constituting a voting block that is 90% likely to vote for a democrat.
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EPT
