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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3818

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
May 14 2016 20:12 GMT
#76341
On May 15 2016 04:56 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2016 04:38 xDaunt wrote:
On May 15 2016 04:35 Shiragaku wrote:
On May 15 2016 03:41 zeo wrote:



edit: Don't know if its been posted before

This just shows the moral bankruptcy of the Sanderistas and most of the left in general. They go on and on about the bigotry of Trump, go on about wealth inequality, go on about student debt, and then vote for a billionaire racist notorious who opened a university to scam people.
At least it is nowhere near as bad as the Sanderistas lecturing people on how they are privileged to not to be able to vote for Hillary and that you gotta pick the lesser of two evils.

Those voters have a bunch of legitimate reasons to vote for Trump over Hillary, not the least of which is Hillary is outright hostile to coal. Beyond that, Trump is actively courting lower to middle class voters with trade policy (this is hurting Hillary badly) and populism. Let's face it: the Democrats have abandoned these people.


Unless Trump finally explains how he's going to offset his huge tax cuts and debt reduction at the same time no person dependent on federal funding or social welfare has a good reason to vote for trump

He's appealing in rhetoric only and that's not a legitimate reason

These aren't people who want to be dependent on federal money. They just want to go mine for coal or do other jobs that politicians before Trump and Bernie have failed to protect.

Also, you're giving the voters way too much credit to give two shits about fiscal policy.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 14 2016 20:14 GMT
#76342
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
oBlade
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States5531 Posts
May 14 2016 20:22 GMT
#76343
On May 15 2016 03:41 SK.Testie wrote:
This bathroom issue feels like wag the dog to hide the discussion of far more important issues tbh.

You mean the real issues like a phone call from 25 years ago?
"I read it. You know how to read, you ignorant fuck?" - Andy Dufresne
ZeaL.
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States5955 Posts
May 14 2016 20:22 GMT
#76344
On May 15 2016 04:35 Shiragaku wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2016 03:41 zeo wrote:
https://twitter.com/Mosheh/status/730144564149948417
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/730150814971465729

edit: Don't know if its been posted before

This just shows the moral bankruptcy of the Sanderistas and most of the left in general. They go on and on about the bigotry of Trump, go on about wealth inequality, go on about student debt, and then vote for a billionaire racist notorious who opened a university to scam people.
At least it is nowhere near as bad as the Sanderistas lecturing people on how they are privileged to not to be able to vote for Hillary and that you gotta pick the lesser of two evils.


What a bunch of BS. You have zero idea what those numbers mean but you decide to get on your soapbox anyways.

Did you know registered democrats far outnumber republicans in WV? And that Obama lost WV in 2012 35% to 62%? The registered democrats who will vote for Trump are the same ones which voted for Romney in '12 and there's a ton of them. The only reason they're still democrats is because its West Virginia, any other state and they'd be republicans.
Shiragaku
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Hong Kong4308 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-14 20:30:56
May 14 2016 20:27 GMT
#76345
I was referring to the entrance of a new political group, namely young who introduction to politics is with the Bernie campaign and there are lot of them, at least in Cali, not longtime members of the Democratic Party.
Also, there are a good share of Bernie supports here in Cali who plan on voting Trump because his agenda is more progressive than Hillary because Third Parties are just gonna die anyways. And this phenomenon is most likely not going to be limited to WV seeing how Trump did state that he will reach out to Bernie supporters.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
May 14 2016 20:37 GMT
#76346
On May 15 2016 04:35 Shiragaku wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2016 03:41 zeo wrote:
https://twitter.com/Mosheh/status/730144564149948417
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/730150814971465729

edit: Don't know if its been posted before

This just shows the moral bankruptcy of the Sanderistas and most of the left in general. They go on and on about the bigotry of Trump, go on about wealth inequality, go on about student debt, and then vote for a billionaire racist notorious who opened a university to scam people.
At least it is nowhere near as bad as the Sanderistas lecturing people on how they are privileged to not to be able to vote for Hillary and that you gotta pick the lesser of two evils.


I actually think that it has nothing to do with moral bankruptcy. They're "sandernistas", as you put it. Not "democrats". In all honesty, the choice isn't actually that easy. I personally wouldn't know who to vote out of those two either. Because neither seems like "a lesser evil".

So if you look at it from an outside perspective, i certainly can understand why they'd vote trump. He's not worse than hillary in regards to what seemed to be important to sanders-fans.

It's not like what you described wouldn't fit arse on bucket on hillary too (apart from the scammy university), but at least trump openly admits where he stands. Hillary just goes on and states how much of "no influence" all the wall street monies etc will have. So you have two people up for voting: one is a dick and doesn't even try to hide it - he even seems proud about it somehow, and you have another person where you can't actually judge the character because she hides everything behind a fake smile while pandering to rich people.

It's pretty much a choice between pest and cholera, and i don't think that you're to decide if it's morally "detestable" for sanders-fans to vote for what they think is the lesser evil.
On track to MA1950A.
ZeaL.
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States5955 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-14 20:40:56
May 14 2016 20:40 GMT
#76347
Ah so clearly exit polls of registered Democrats who are super conservative, voted against Obama in '12, voted against Hillary in the primary, and are going to vote against Hillary in the general " shows the moral bankruptcy of the Sanderistas and most of the left in general."

But actually these exit polls show that an entirely different group of young people not in West Virginia are morally bankrupt gotcha
Yoav
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1874 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-14 20:46:57
May 14 2016 20:45 GMT
#76348
If an Islam where honor killings occur in families, rape victims are punished for adultery, women can't leave the house alone, a man can beat his wife, child marriage, girls can't go to school, can't choose their husbands, can't work, can't be seen uncovered, weren't an accurate interpretation of the religion, don't you think the focus should be on ending it?

I assume you mean "were", and yes, I think anyone holding those ideas should be convinced of their wrongness. I also think this is an inaccurate representation of every Muslim I've ever gotten to know. In fairness, I live in America, where we generally treat Muslims more like people than is customary in Europe, so there's a lot less anger there.

In context, you don't think there's something wrong with taking your religion seriously even when your interpretation of it advocates stoning, like the Norwegian video? The whole point of having countries is so we can live together and have a civilization.

Sure. But the problem is not "taking religion seriously." It's holding bad ideas. Islam is not inherently a bad idea. Stoning, misogyny etc. obviously are bad ideas. Try to seperate them out.

You can treat people as individuals and still treat a religion as a religion, there's no cognitive dissonance.

As long as you're legimately treating religions as religions, sure. Religions are loose categorizations of people who identify with a particular religious traditions. The ideas people of any particular religion hold may be reasonably critiqued, but you can't make sweeping statements about religions that aren't your own. (I reserve the right to hold beliefs about the right and wrong interpretations of my own religion.)

Lots of bullshit about the Pope

Yeah this is not how you Catholic. If you're curious how Papal Infallability works, look it up. Catholics don't think the Pope gets messages from God or that he's always infallable, or that he commands authority over secular/political matters. He's the leader of an institution who is supposedly protected by God from doctrinal error when speaking ex cathedra. A ruling, btw, that was made later 19th C, roughly 90% through Catholic history. (Lots of Catholics still don't buy it.)

On May 14 2016 02:50 NukeD wrote:
What about the fact average peace loving muslim still believes that homosexuals should be punished, that leaving islam should be punished, that mocking alah should be punished, that women should dress more "appropriatelly"?

Also, there was this interesting comparison in Nobel winners across all religions. Apparently only like 4 muslims won a Nobel prize out of lets say 800 total, where Jews alone won something like 90+ While being the smallest of the group and islam has over a billion people. What is interesting is that during history islam was the place to go for science, especially math, after all we do use arab numbers among other things. Then around 13th century they had one ruler impose islam fundamentalism as law, replacing science with Quraan, and to this day islam has not recovered from that. I have watched that in a video where a guy explains in detail what happened exactly, but i am unable to find it now. Will try further.

I just realised how low quallity my post is, but i swear that video was top notch!


Oh, let's play this game with race! Clearly white people are superior! Or perhaps we're missing the real point.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13892 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-14 21:25:46
May 14 2016 21:21 GMT
#76349
Usually when people end their post with "we're missing the real point" they follow that with what the real point is. Race doesn't have anything to do with the burning of the Baghdad library and the ramifications of that on the rest of the Islamic world.

I think hes referring to "the sword of islam" Timur the lame. Who admittedly was a pretty terrible guy that is responsible for most of the terrible things in Islamic culture today.

For those who havn't played CK2 or are not experts on islamic history (I'm saying that like its two different things) Timur the lame was like an alexander of islam except spread brutality and violent Jihad inspired Islam instead of Hellenistic ideals and education from greece. People refered to his state as "the Iron horde" as it swept through the mongolian controled lands in the middle east and it quickly collapsed after timurs death.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18825 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-14 21:43:42
May 14 2016 21:43 GMT
#76350
Using statistics drawn from the population of West Virginia as a basis for any kind of extrapolation seems specious at best.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
RenSC2
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States1057 Posts
May 14 2016 21:45 GMT
#76351
On May 15 2016 03:41 zeo wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/Mosheh/status/730144564149948417
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/730150814971465729

edit: Don't know if its been posted before

Haven't seen that exact graph, but there was a similar discussion a little while back that was more illuminating.

Essentially, West Virginia has a legacy of a more registered democrats than republicans while it is actually a republican voting state. With the Republican nomination locked up, a significant number of Trump supporters decided to use their status as registered democrats to vote on that side and try to bring Clinton down by voting for Sanders. The stat that most clearly shows this problem is the one where a large percentage of Sanders primary voters would vote for Trump over Sanders in the general election.

So I wouldn't completely chalk up the stats you posted as sandernistas voting against their own interests. That only accounts for some of the problem.
Playing better than standard requires deviation. This divergence usually results in sub-standard play.
SK.Testie
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
Canada11084 Posts
May 14 2016 21:53 GMT
#76352
Offtopic: Just mentioning CK2... people really should read the reviews of that on steam. It's great reading material.

+ Show Spoiler +
Killed all my sons but one to keep my land in one piece gg 10/10 would murder family again

"Sleeping with your son's wife is just sound strategy. Sometimes they just won't breed and you need to take matters into your own pants." A Crusader Kings 2 player strategy. This is pretty much all you need to know.

Noticed one day that my little boy turned gay all of a sudden.

Couldn't think of any good reason for it, so I click on his "Relations" tab.

And what do I see? My uncle, listed as my boy's "Lover."

10/10, would imprison and execute my pedophilic gay uncle again.

Was playing as Poland, Had inbred son. Named him Plick. Awarded him the title of Count of Plock. Hence, Count Plick of Plock the Inbred Polock.

•Played as a Viking in the late 8th century.
•One of my more ambitious council members "has decided it's time" for me to leave this world.
•He begins a plot to assasinate me.
•The rest of my council advises me to righteously imprison him.
•Instead I notice the poor ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ is lonely and just wants to get married.
•Marry him off to another lonely girl in my court.

•She's happy.
•He's happy.
•I ask him kindly to end his plot to kill me.
•He agrees.

☺ I'm happy..

Best feel good simulator 11/10.



-Started as Byzantine Empire
-1 in the afternoon
-February 1st
-Start at War against the Muslims
-Imprison military general named Mohammad
-Castrate Mohammad
-Get blown up by ISIS
-Make peace with Muslims
-Fight wars against Italy
-Conquer all of Italy and castrate King
-Have son
-Son Born in Purple
-Italy will be lost upon succession to first born
-Arrest and castrate first born
-Italy safe
-Vassals hate me
-Vassals rebel
-Put down rebellion
-Revoke titles and castrate all rebelling vassals
-expand against Armenia
-Shi'a rises in Arabia
-Holy wars against Africa
-Take most of Northern Africa
-Castrate all land owners and blind all military leaders
-Go to war against Bulgaria
-♥♥♥♥ Bulgaria
-Castrate Bulgaria
-Have two sons, not born in the purple
-Have son born in the purple
-Excommunicate, arrest, and castrate first two sons
-People approve castration
-Holy war against Moroccan Empires
-Caliph gets called in
-Muslims are ♥♥♥♥♥♥ me
-Ruler dies in battle
-Gain cruel trait blinding general
-Whole kingdom revolts
-Crown authority gets rekt
-Muslims win
-1000 gold in debt
-Set up merchant republic in North Africa
-Borrow money from Jews
-Expel Jews
-Castrate remaining Jews
-Rebuild army
-Take rest of Balkans
-Army is huge
-Take Southern HRE and southern France
-Entire Arabian Empire rebels
-Caliph down to 7500 troops
-Holy Wars against Caliph
-Take all the way down to Egypt
-Capture Caliph
-Castrate Caliph
-Wage war on Morocco
-Capture Morocco
-Just Spain left
-Have another son
-Born in purple
-Ask for first son to be excommunicated
-Denied
-Arrest son
-Castrate son
-Vassals hate me
-Vassals rebel
-Hire mercenaries
-♥♥♥♥ Vassals
-Arabia invades
-♥♥♥♥ Arabia
-Castrate Vassals
-Castrate Caliph
-Holy War against Spain
-Take eastern coast in many holy wars
-So many castrated Muslim men
-No more reproduction in Spain.
-Build back army
-Castrate my first born for the last time
-Finish off Spanish Muslims
-Castrate whole prison cell
-Take Christian stronghold in Spain.
-Release king
-I am merciful
-Reunite Roman Empire
-Look up at clock
-1 pm
-February 2nd
-I guess Rome was built in a day

Social Justice is a fools errand. May all the adherents at its church be thwarted. Of all the religions I have come across, it is by far the most detestable.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
May 14 2016 21:54 GMT
#76353
CK2 is fun

Gotta kill the kids to keep the bloodlines pure and inheritances right
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
oBlade
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States5531 Posts
May 14 2016 22:11 GMT
#76354
On May 15 2016 05:45 Yoav wrote:
Show nested quote +
If an Islam where honor killings occur in families, rape victims are punished for adultery, women can't leave the house alone, a man can beat his wife, child marriage, girls can't go to school, can't choose their husbands, can't work, can't be seen uncovered, weren't an accurate interpretation of the religion, don't you think the focus should be on ending it?

I assume you mean "were", and yes, I think anyone holding those ideas should be convinced of their wrongness. I also think this is an inaccurate representation of every Muslim I've ever gotten to know. In fairness, I live in America, where we generally treat Muslims more like people than is customary in Europe, so there's a lot less anger there.

No, I didn't mean "were." Your personal anecdote aside, the reason Islam is less oppressive in the US is the country is built on secular liberalism, although that's slim comfort to people living in fear and violence worldwide.

On May 15 2016 05:45 Yoav wrote:
Show nested quote +
In context, you don't think there's something wrong with taking your religion seriously even when your interpretation of it advocates stoning, like the Norwegian video? The whole point of having countries is so we can live together and have a civilization.

Sure. But the problem is not "taking religion seriously." It's holding bad ideas. Islam is not inherently a bad idea. Stoning, misogyny etc. obviously are bad ideas. Try to seperate them out.

Again, it's not really for me to dissociate those things. It's something you should take up with people who believe God gives them the right to beat their wives and kill people.

On May 15 2016 05:45 Yoav wrote:
Show nested quote +
You can treat people as individuals and still treat a religion as a religion, there's no cognitive dissonance.

As long as you're legimately treating religions as religions, sure. Religions are loose categorizations of people who identify with a particular religious traditions. The ideas people of any particular religion hold may be reasonably critiqued, but you can't make sweeping statements about religions that aren't your own. (I reserve the right to hold beliefs about the right and wrong interpretations of my own religion.)

That sounds like a nice thought until you realize that "reasonable critique" is just going to be synonymous with "agreeing with me." And being a member of a given religion isn't a credential for objectivity.
"I read it. You know how to read, you ignorant fuck?" - Andy Dufresne
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23172 Posts
May 14 2016 23:29 GMT
#76355
Trump did state that he will reach out to Bernie supporters.


He's actually tried harder than Clinton to pick up Sanders voters. lol @ trying to extrapolate from WV. WV is about Hillary losing a massive swath of support, not about Sanders supporters preferring Trump over her.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 14 2016 23:35 GMT
#76356
WASHINGTON (AP) — House Republicans have missed a self-imposed deadline for a plan to help Puerto Rico manage $70 billion in debt, adjourning Friday without introducing a bill.

Legislation was expected this week to create a control board to help manage the U.S. territory's financial obligations and oversee some debt restructuring. It would have been the third version of the House bill, which has come under fire from conservatives who feared it would set a precedent for financially ailing states and Democrats concerned the control board would be too powerful and favorable to creditors.

House Speaker Paul Ryan said in a statement Friday that Republicans want to ensure the bill is the "best, most responsible legislation to tackle Puerto Rico's fiscal crisis while protecting American taxpayers."

Ryan said negotiations continue with Democrats and the Obama administration on the issue. He said it will be introduced in "the coming days."

House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Rob Bishop, R-Utah, has led negotiations on the bill and has said he wants bipartisan support. The aim is to write legislation that could pass both the House and the Senate before Puerto Rico defaults on a $2 billion debt payment due July 1. The territory missed a nearly $370 million bond payment May 1 — the largest so far in a series of missed payments since last year.

In an interview Friday for C-SPAN's "Newsmakers" program, Bishop said he believes the House needs to move forward but lawmakers want to make sure the legislation doesn't have any remaining constitutional or legal issues.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-15 00:04:10
May 15 2016 00:03 GMT
#76357
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/hillary-doctrine-goldberg-landler/482667/

Is There a Hillary Doctrine?
A conversation with Alter Egos author Mark Landler, the only person who thinks more than I do about the foreign-policy differences between Obama and his former secretary of state.


It has seemed to me, for as long as I’ve been watching Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama make foreign and national-security policy, that the differences in outlook and approach between the two of them are fundamental and dramatic. I would call these differences profound, but I don’t want to be accused of hyperbole. It is not just that Clinton has a bias toward action in the international arena, and that Obama is far more hesitant, far more aware (too aware, in the eyes of critics) of the downside of action; it is that there are basic differences in the way they understand America’s role in the world, and the qualities that make America exceptional. They also differ, to my eye, in their understanding of American indispensability, and of the relationship between power and diplomacy.

The only person I know who spends more time thinking about the dispositional and ideological differences between Obama and Clinton than I do is Mark Landler, the New York Times reporter who has covered the Obama White House and the Clinton State Department and who recently published a book, Alter Egos (its very long and serious subtitle: “Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and the Twilight Struggle Over American Power”), that explores these differences through the prism, mainly, of the Middle East crises that have consumed the Obama administration. Landler has written an excellent book, the definitive examination to date of, among other things, a president who has tried to extract the U.S. from the Middle East (without much success, it goes almost without saying). Alter Egos is also the most authoritative attempt to explain Obama’s complicated relationship with his first-term secretary of state, a thwarted competitor-turned-staffer who, if she wins the presidency this year, will inherit a world that is in some ways as messy as the one Obama himself inherited from George W. Bush.

Landler and I don’t see eye-to-eye on the differences between Obama and Clinton; he thinks that she will make foreign policy in a more cautious manner than I believe she will. I tend to think, most of the time, at least, that her Libya experience did not diminish her ardor for the arena. On Ukraine and Syria, for instance, she thinks in more overtly interventionist terms than does Obama. In an interview I conducted with Clinton two summers ago (one that drew attention for her implicit criticism of Obama’s unofficial foreign-policy slogan, “Don’t do stupid shit”), she convinced me that she, unlike Obama, has the heart of a Cold Warrior. In what I took to be another shot at Obama, she said, “You know, when you’re down on yourself, and when you are hunkering down and pulling back, you’re not going to make any better decisions than when you were aggressively, belligerently putting yourself forward. One issue is that we don’t even tell our own story very well these days.”

I didn’t have much doubt about the identity of the “we” in her statement. I responded to her assertion by saying something I believe deeply, which is that America, in the last century, saved civilization. I thought, I told Clinton, that, “defeating fascism and communism is a pretty big deal.”

She responded with unvarnished enthusiasm: “That’s how I feel! Maybe this is old-fashioned. Okay, I feel that this might be an old-fashioned idea, but I’m about to find out, in more ways than one.”

Obama, on the other hand, has a different understanding of indispensability (you can read about Obama’s foreign policy here, if you’re interested). Obama is also too measured, too ambivalent and guarded, to tout America’s achievements in an uncomplicated way. (He will seldom scold another country for its bad behavior without first asserting that the U.S. is far from perfect, and providing examples of America’s imperfections.)

Landler and I, in a recent conversation, discussed his theory of the case, which is that biography, chronology, and geography are destiny. Now you’re intrigued, right? So read on. This is an edited and condensed transcript of our conversation.


-------


Jeffrey Goldberg: Let’s just get something out of the way. The Ben Rhodes controversy. Put aside all the extraneous issues—I don’t think that the administration ever tried to hide the fact, before the election of the ostensibly moderate [President Hassan] Rouhani, that it wanted to do a deal with Iran. Am I wrong?

Mark Landler: This puzzled me. The White House’s efforts to open a channel to Iran through the Omanis before Rouhani’s election were well-known and have been reported on by a number of journalists. In my book, I dig into the earliest roots of the Oman channel because I think it reveals the divergent approaches of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and especially John Kerry toward Iran. Kerry and Obama were more intrigued by the possibility of secret talks; Clinton was more skeptical. If Ben was trying to manufacture a narrative that the Iran diplomacy began with Hassan Rouhani, he wasn’t very successful, at least with me.

Goldberg: Let’s go to Obama and Clinton. I think they are quite different in the way they approach the world. Some people are arguing to you that they’re not different at all. Explain where you come out on this.

Landler: A common argument is that, on the spectrum of American foreign-policy thought, from total dove to total neoconservative, they’re both liberal internationalists. They both believe in rules-based order; they’re both about preserving the post-World War II world that Truman and Acheson and others built. And they sit close to each other on the spectrum. But my argument is that if you look at their instincts and reflexes and the way that they are apt to respond to a crisis, they just come at it very differently, and this is in part because they come from very different places both in terms of time and geography. Obama grew up in the ’70s, and he had this itinerant existence, living in Indonesia for a period—

Goldberg: Looking at America from the outside in—

Landler: Looking at America from outside in, as sort of an expatriate’s view of America—

Goldberg: And Hillary is literally in the middle of America looking out—

Landler: Yes. She’s in the heartland, but also in the 1950s, with a conservative Navy petty officer father. And so she viewed America as a country that was a force for good, that American interventions generally could be a positive rather than a negative thing. And I think Obama was much more skeptical about that.

Goldberg: Dispositionally, is Hillary closer to John McCain or Barack Obama?

Landler: In basic disposition, John McCain. Though in practical terms, given her pragmatism, I think she would govern more cautiously than McCain would govern.

Goldberg: You’ve heard what Obama says about Libya—we tried to do everything right, but it didn’t work, and this informed his decision-making about Syria. She was a hawk on Libya, but do you think there’s a chance it somehow changed her reflexes?

Landler: If you look at the way she’s approached Syria, starting out forward-leaning on aiding the rebels back in 2012 and continuing to favor a no-fly zone today, I would argue that she still believes that Libya could end well—

Goldberg: She thinks that even today?

Landler: Even today, that it could end well. My view on Obama is—and you may or may not agree with this—that he looked at Libya and it confirmed all the preexisting problems he had with interventionism.

Goldberg: He never really wanted to do it.

Landler: He didn’t want to do it, and then he did it, and then it turned out badly, and this confirmed his instincts.

Goldberg: Maybe it turned out badly in part because he never thought that it could work in the first place.

Landler: I think she would argue that our impulse was right, and it was messier than it should have been for a whole variety of reasons, but that it’s still a work in progress and—importantly—it shouldn’t prevent us from doing similar things in different places. And if you look at Syria, I believe she thinks there’s more of a prospect for the U.S. to make a difference on the ground than he does.

Goldberg: So follow this through. January, 2017, let’s say she becomes president. What could change in U.S. Syria policy?

Landler: Well I think that she’s wanted, from the very start, to do something to change the equation on the ground. And President Obama, I think, concluded you couldn’t do enough to change the equation without a major military intervention. I think she will at least explore the possibility of a no-fly zone and creating humanitarian corridors. And I think that she would be willing to substantially expand the level of aid we’re giving to rebel groups [for instance with] MANPADS, and things like that.

Goldberg: In your understanding, she was never convinced of Obama’s argument that if the U.S. gives them MANPADS and then one is used by someone to shoot down an El Al jet—

Landler: I think she worried about that because she was part of the original debate on what kinds of arms should go to the rebels. And at that point everyone agreed that MANPADS were out of the question because of the danger that you talked about. But I just wonder now, faced with a situation that’s just catastrophically worse than it was four years ago, [if] she would be willing to take that extra step. I can’t say I know that. I’m surmising this based on the public statements she’s made. She calls it an intensification and acceleration of Obama’s strategy, but that can take only so many forms.

Goldberg: How has he evolved in his understanding of American interventionism, and how has she evolved? Or has her thinking not evolved? Did they influence each other’s thinking in any way?

Landler: It’s difficult to weigh these because one is the commander-in-chief and the other was a staff member. But if you look at the debates that unfolded over time, she prevailed in the case of Libya and did not prevail in the case of Syria. So he drew some very strong lessons from Libya and could not be swayed when it came to Syria. In her case, I think that, because she’s older and has a longer frame of reference, a lot of the lessons she learned go back much further than his. I think, for example, when she talks about Syria, she can talk about a Kosovo precedent in a much more comfortable way than he does. So he may have evolved more but because he was starting with Iraq, and came in with relatively little experience as a foreign policy practitioner or even thinker, whereas she had already had 15 or 20 years of eyewitness experience with which to work. When she thought about Syria, she didn’t just think about Iraq, she thought a lot about the Balkans. I don’t know how much President Obama thought about the Balkans when he thought about any of the interventions during his presidency.

Goldberg: You quote Jake Sullivan [Clinton’s foreign-policy adviser] toward the end of the book saying that the 2008 Hillary foreign-policy “muscularity” didn’t work for her then, but that [it] would work better now, in this campaign. Do you think that he is right about that? Or is Obama actually in tune with the American people and where they are on matters of foreign engagement more than Hillary? I suspect you highlighted that Jake quote because you probably have your doubts about it.

Landler: Well, I do. And in fact I said in the epilogue that it remains to be seen whether her mood matches the American public or whether her instincts match the American public. Jake was speaking in the aftermath of the Paris and San Bernardino attacks. At that moment, there was new polling data out from CNN and from others that showed for the first time in a long time that a majority of Americans favored sending ground troops to Iraq and Syria. And Jake was saying that in that very fraught moment there was a rethinking under way.

Goldberg: But those moments are very ephemeral.

Landler: Yes, these moments are fleeting. The further away you get from any national-security crisis, the more Americans tend to fall back into their preexisting patterns. So I’m not at all persuaded. And furthermore, if you listen carefully to a guy like Trump in that foreign-policy speech he gave recently, I don’t think he’s persuaded. I mean, that speech, for all its contradictions and incoherence, made an interesting point, which was: We’re out of the nation-building business, and I’m not looking to get us into a new war.

Goldberg: Well, he talked as if Obama had been in the nation-building business, which is absurd.

Landler: Which is nonsense. But what I’m saying is: Obama clearly feels that he has his finger on the pulse of where Americans are on this issue. And that’s why he’s serene and doesn’t mind thumbing his nose at the foreign-policy establishment, because he thinks they’re the ones that are out of step, not him.

Goldberg: Do you agree?

Landler: I think that he’s been pretty good at gauging public opinion on this. The interesting larger question that [the dispositionally interventionist historian] Bob Kagan—and I interviewed Bob Kagan for the book—raised is that in 2008 when Obama was elected, this country was living on strategic fumes, that all of the “indispensible nation” rhetoric just no longer appealed to people anymore. And Obama correctly tapped into that. Americans were just exhausted and no longer willing.

Goldberg: The whole, “We’re America, we must do this,” argument no long has much sway.

Landler: I think that’s right. Obama believes America does have to act when vital national interests are in play. But he defines vital national interests much more narrowly than a lot of the foreign-policy establishment. One of the things in my book that I thought was a telling moment was a dinner he had with former officials and foreign-policy experts. They were talking about Ukraine, and Obama asked, “Will someone please tell me what America’s vital national interest is in Ukraine?” And [Brookings Institution President] Strobe Talbott was just sort of slack-jawed. To someone like him, who represents the foreign-policy establishment, the idea that the U.S. wouldn’t immediately rush to the defense of a former Soviet satellite is unthinkable. But Obama was merely pointing out the obvious, which was that our trade with Ukraine is miniscule, and Ukraine means so much more to Putin and Russia than it does to us that Russia would double-down and triple-down on anything we did.

Goldberg: It’s what he told me—core interests trump peripheral interests, and let’s not make believe otherwise.

Landler: And let’s be willing to walk away.

Goldberg: But would Hillary Clinton ever say that?

Landler: She would never say it out loud. She might say it quietly. But she would also, I think, instinctively, want to do more to prevent that outcome. And that’s why she’s told her friends she would support lethal defensive weapons to the Ukrainian army. And that is, by the way, a position that many of [Obama’s] advisers also had.

Goldberg: I agree with you that her instincts are more McCainish than Obamaish, but the question is, how constrained will she be—as president—by recent American history, the recent history of American interventions?

Landler: Well, it’s the right question to ask. People love to point out six months into any new presidency—this always happens—the degree of continuity with the preceding president. With President Obama, it was the fact that he liked using drones just as Bush liked using drones. With Clinton, it may turn out that, just as Obama didn’t like messy foreign engagements, we’ll see—six months into her presidency—that she’s not exactly marching into other countries.

Goldberg: Although if she did actually up the ante in Syria, or maybe in a place like Ukraine, it could be interpreted as a decisive break.

Landler: Yes, that could be true. And, again, it’s hard for me to predict because she’s a situationalist, and she’ll weigh each one of these things separately. I don’t think she’ll come in on day one with the idea that we need to rip up the Obama playbook. This is not like Obama coming in after Bush and saying that this is a new era, and we are now mending fences and winding down wars. She’s certainly not going to come in and do that. I wonder, though, whether she will come in with a more energetic pro-engagement vibe than President Obama has had.

Goldberg: Engagement with?

Landler: All kinds of people. I mean, for example, I think she’ll try to have a different relationship with Israel. We can get into that too. It’s in a separate category, though.

Goldberg: Well it’s a separate category because it’s an issue that is a domestic politics [one] as well. My assumption is that, if she becomes president, that in March of 2017 she’s going on what you could call a Stabilization Tour, a 10-capital tour, from Seoul and Tokyo, to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, and Jerusalem, and—

Landler: And maybe a stop in Kiev, while she’s at it.

Goldberg: Good point. And Warsaw, and Riga, and Paris and London, for that matter. Just to say—here’s my phone number, we’re cool, don’t worry, I’m not going to be criticizing you in public, I’m not going to call you a free rider in public. But that’s an adjustment, a calibration, that’s not a break in doctrine. Is there a Hillary Clinton Doctrine, other than being a situationist?

Landler: I don’t think there’s a clear doctrine, just as there isn’t one with Obama. I thought it was interesting that, in my research, the one time I found evidence that her people were thinking about a Doctrine, a capital-D Doctrine, was in Libya. After the collapse of Qaddafi, there was some talk within her circle about how she was going to get out in front of this and get credit for it. And Jake Sullivan said in an email to her, “We’re writing an op-ed and we should think ambitiously along the lines of a Clinton Doctrine.” And I wondered by that whether he meant a form of aggressive engagement, intervention when necessary, but one that involved working with a wide variety of actors. Because if you remember, the whole hallmark of the Libya policy was, we have the Arab League on board, we have the Europeans on board. And she was the one that put all that together. As secretary of state, she did all those trips, and made all those phone calls, and had all those meetings. So they were giving her, internally, a great deal of credit for the coalition. Libya could have been a big part of her doctrine.

Goldberg: Do you think she resents Obama for losing interest in Libya, and being insufficiently committed? And vice versa, maybe? Do you think Obama resents Hillary and the other people, from Tony Blinken and Ben Rhodes to Samantha Power and Gayle Smith, who pushed him into something he didn’t want to do?

Landler: I don’t think there was ever that much evidence that he was very engaged after the NATO operation ended. And frankly, given the ownership that she had over the policy, it was really more up to her to stay engaged. And I ask the question of whether she disengaged. After the initial period, when things looked like they were unfolding in a fairly optimistic way, I always thought it was curious that she had no email contact with Ambassador Stevens. [Chris Stevens was the American ambassador to Libya, who was killed in the attack on the diplomatic outpost in Benghazi in September 2012.]

Goldberg: That was very interesting moment in your book. I didn’t realize that she wasn’t in communication with him, given where he was posted.

Landler: I thought that this was curious. So my question is, was she herself somewhat distracted, and had she moved on to the next challenge? If I’m President Obama and I’m looking at this, I’m thinking, “Well, you got me into this, so you should keep bearing down on it.”

Goldberg: She wasn’t talking to Stevens, the ambassador, about Libya, but as you point out in the book, she was talking to someone else quite a bit about Libya, Sidney Blumenthal. Is Sidney Blumenthal going to have a prominent foreign-policy role in her next administration?

Landler: I don’t know if he would have a formal role, but it’s clear to me that a formal title doesn’t matter. If he doesn’t have a formal role, he’ll continue to have the informal role that he had throughout her term as secretary. And that role, it’s clear from looking at the emails that have been released, was extraordinarily wide-ranging. Not just the political advice he was giving her and the bureaucratic advice he was giving her, but the other voices he was bringing to the table.

Goldberg: And he was acting like her intelligence officer for Libya.

Landler: Right, a lot of those Libya emails from Blumenthal were actually drafted by this shadowy CIA guy, Tyler Drumheller, but he wasn’t the only person. Blumenthal would spend a lot of time bringing other voices to her attention, and on other issues that he really cared about.

Goldberg: Well, he would be funneling a constant stream of either anti-Israel, or anti-Netanyahu, commentary. Do you think this means anything about the way she would actually manage this file? I mean, people like us, we make this assumption that she would, to borrow a word, reset relations with Netanyahu, assuming he’s still prime minister. And when I last spoke to her about this general issue, she was sounding very hawkish, more hawkish obviously than Obama. On the other hand, Sidney Blumenthal, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Tom Pickering, they’re sending her this constant stream of pretty hardcore anti-Israel material, so far as we can see from the released emails. Do you think she’d move left on this issue if she became president?

Landler: I think in this case that she’d be more inclined to take her lead from Bill Clinton than from Sidney Blumenthal.

Goldberg: And Haim Saban?

Landler: And Haim Saban, obviously. I do subscribe to the idea that she would see drawing close to Israel, closer to Israel, as a valuable thing to do for a variety of reasons. This doesn’t mean, by the way, that there wouldn’t be more tension, and even antagonism, because she gave an interview recently in which she said that an agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians would still be one of her top priorities. And if she’s serious about pursuing that, it’s hard to pursue that full-scale without antagonizing the current Israeli government.

Goldberg: Much of your book is about Middle Eastern catastrophes. But you deal extensively with the pivot to Asia. Do you think that Hillary Clinton will figure out a way —in a way that Obama hasn’t—to put the Middle East in a box, so that she can focus on other things? Do you think she’ll succeed in controlling this, where he has failed?

Landler: The last five or six presidents have failed to put the Middle East in a box. You know, it’s impossible to predict the future, but I have a sinking feeling that the Middle East will occupy the same central position in the next presidency that it did in this one. Just look at the situation on the ground today. The Syrian conflict is likely to get worse before it gets better. With the Iran nuclear deal, will it play a destabilizing role, as the critics believe? Or does it actually right the balance in the region and produce a kind of stability—the cold peace that President Obama hopes for?

Goldberg: So the question is: Iran in recent weeks has done various provocative things—the incident with the Navy, ballistic-missile testing, the recalcitrant statements made by the supreme leader. There’s also a narrative developing that this administration will do anything it can to preserve the letter of the deal, if not the spirit of the deal. Do you think that Hillary will have a new set of policies in place that will mean less tolerance for Iranian shenanigans?

Landler: I think that she’s going to position herself as the enforcer of this deal, and if you go back and look at the role she’s played in Iranian diplomacy throughout, she’s almost always played the bad cop. She’s the one who put together the sanctions coalition.

Goldberg: Do you credit her with doing more work on that than anyone else?

Landler: Yes, I think so. [National Security Advisor] Susan Rice did a lot at the U.N. President Obama did a lot with the Russians. But Hillary was, with the Chinese in particular, critical in putting that together. If you go back to the earliest days of the Iran negotiation, when it was still a secret channel in Oman, Hillary was far more dubious, and much more reluctant to get pulled into it. And it was, in fact, John Kerry and Obama who were really leaning into it. And so I do think she would come in and probably want to put some new programs in place, maybe there would be a willingness to act more swiftly on sanctions against Iran in case of other violations, ballistic missiles, for instance, or in assembling coalition of countries to try to stymie Iran. And I think that unlike President Obama, who, I believe, whatever he said publicly, privately hoped that the deal would be a transformational event, I don’t think she has any illusions about that. I think she assumes that we continue to have this fundamentally antagonistic relationship with Iran.

Goldberg: A counterfactual: If Clinton had stayed on for a second term as secretary of state, would we have an Iran deal now?

Landler: It’s interesting. I didn’t pose that counterfactual question, I ask the question of whether, if Hillary Clinton, had been elected in 2008 instead of Obama, would there have been a deal? And I think that it’s possible to argue that there wouldn’t have been.

One of the interesting things that came out of my reporting is that she would have favored hitting the Iranians with new sanctions after Hassan Rouhani was elected president. This was the Menendez-Kirk legislation, which, if you recall, President Obama maneuvered desperately to prevent the Senate from passing, because his view was that it would blow up the negotiations. I know that Hillary—because she’s told people this—would have favored squeezing them. In the words of one of her aides, “Squeeze them again and see what happens.” Remember, the president was the one pushing the deal, and Hillary Clinton was nothing if not a loyal implementer of her boss’s policy. So if the order on the table was to get this deal done, I think it’s possible she would have gotten it done as secretary of state. The question is whether she would have pursued it as president, and there I have my doubts.

Goldberg: If she becomes president, who do you think would be her most important foreign-policy advisers, and sources of ideas?

Landler: Yes, well, Bill Clinton is number one. And then she’ll have very trusted aides, Jake Sullivan at the top of that list. And then she has this extremely wide, heterodox circle of contacts that she’ll be pulling information from. And that’ll include Bob Kagan, it’ll include Sid Blumenthal, it’ll include Strobe Talbott, it’ll include [former U.S. ambassador to Israel] Martin Indyk. And I think you see some surprising names and faces. Another difference with Obama is that she’s a real sponge for information—like her husband. For her it’s an acquired skill, for her husband it came naturally. I think President Obama was more likely to think through issues himself, and read a lot, as opposed to casting an extremely wide net. I think in her case, she’s more apt to talk to Republicans. I think she’ll consult John McCain. I write a lot about, in this book, about General Jack Keane, who’s a pretty hard line retired four-star general.

Goldberg: She likes the nail-eating generals, like Jim Mattis. These guys are also internationalists, and strong alliance guys. Is she out of step with the mood of the American people, who, I’m told, at least, don’t want to be involved with very much internationally?

Landler: I’m not sure I disagree with you. I mean I don’t think it’s the perfect moment for someone who is as hawkish as I believe she is. But you also have to entertain the dark possibility that there could be a terrorist attack on American soil, and then, overnight, the situation is dramatically transformed.

Goldberg: Well, if that happens, Trump has a very good chance of becoming president, given the national mood. But let’s talk about Trump. In his recent foreign-policy speech, he attacked Obama from the right and Hillary from the left. What would you imagine his line going forward is going to be on Hillary—that she’s a warmonger, or that she’s weak on terrorism, or both at the same time?

Landler: It will probably be some combination.

Goldberg: He’s not bound by the rules of consistency, obviously.

Landler: What interested me about that speech is that there were also echoes of Obama in it. I mean, when he talks about resetting relationships with Russia—okay, well, we tried that once before. And the free-rider thing is very much there, as was the contempt for the foreign-policy establishment. Where did I hear that before? In a Jeff Goldberg interview. I mean, so I think that the odd thing about Trump is, he will attack her from the right and he’ll hang the Iraq War vote around her neck. Here’s the irony—it’s eight years later and a completely different political figure is going to hang Iraq around her neck, a Republican this time, just as Obama did eight years ago. And then, on the things that went wrong over the past eight years, he can just label that an Obama-Clinton policy—whether it went wrong for lack of doing enough or whether it went wrong for acting recklessly and using poor judgment.

Goldberg: This is why one of the most interesting questions to me is where she comes down on the intervention continuum. I guess the basic question about her—and neither of us know this—is, does she still have the “People are dying and we must do something” impulse?

Landler: In the category of formative experiences, I think that Rwanda and the Srebrenica episodes are ones that she remembers vividly, and while she may not subscribe to every tenet of the concept of Responsibility to Protect, that’s where her instincts are going to be.

Goldberg: Going back to what we were first talking about, a signal difference between Obama and Clinton is that she remembers Rwanda and Srebrenica and the First Iraq War, the successful Gulf War, and Obama has no firsthand experience of these events.

Landler: One of the arguments that people have made about Obama is that he sat out the formative experiences for Democrats in which interventions worked well, and as a result his frame of reference is Vietnam and George W. Bush’s Iraq. And in her case, though she came of age during Vietnam, she then saw Rwanda, Srebrenica, and Kosovo. That could make for a huge difference in the way you think about intervention. Look, one of the conclusions President Obama drew was that we can’t afford these things, it’s exhausting, and the American people won’t tolerate it anymore. And he had a lot of reason to believe he was right. I mean, he defeated a vastly better-known, better-funded Democratic opponent in part on those grounds, by lashing her to an unpopular war. And then went on to win the general election against a war hero.

Goldberg: It’s interesting, in ordinary times, a candidate who is seen as more robustly anti-Russian should have a fairly easy time convincing the American people of her position. But she might be running against a Republican nominee who is more sympathetic to the current Russian leader than the Democratic nominee. So everything’s upside down.

Landler: If you go back six or eight months, and look at who Hillary’s people thought they might be meeting in a general election, I think they probably figured it would be Marco Rubio, who had neocon ideas but not very much experience. And she would have been able to win that debate fairly easily on qualifications grounds and experience grounds, and this would not have been a difficult debate for her to win.

Goldberg: They were preparing to run against a Republican from the left on this set of questions, and now they are running against a Republican who is himself running against her from the left on foreign-policy and national-security issues.

Landler: From the right and the left, at the same time.

Goldberg: Weird times.

Landler: Yep.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-15 00:05:46
May 15 2016 00:05 GMT
#76358
Hmm, fixing puerto rico going to be quite a problem.
at least it sounds like its being passably worked on.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 15 2016 00:51 GMT
#76359
Pension funds are putting pressure on ExxonMobil to start telling its shareholders how climate change will affect the oil giant’s business.

The California public employee pension fund and the New York City pension fund, which together manage $433 billion in investments, told fellow shareholders in a letter to support a resolution calling for the company to disclose in detail how it could be harmed by new government policies limiting carbon emissions and other shifts due to climate change.

ExxonMobil, hurting from low oil prices, was recently stripped of the top credit rating by Standard & Poor’s for the first time since the 1930s. The company has also been dogged by reporting from the Los Angeles Times and the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism showing that it knew for far longer than it publicly acknowledged that climate change was caused by emissions from burning fossil fuels.

In a letter filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer and CalPERs Investment Director Anne Simpson said, “We believe investors would benefit from an assessment of Exxon Mobil’s oil and gas reserves under a scenario consistent with the global emissions reduction target defined in The Paris Agreement.” The agreement asks countries to commit to keeping climate change below 2 degrees Celsius.

On Wednesday, a group of about 1,000 academics signed a letter supporting the ExxonMobile resolution, along with a similar measure at Chevron.

ExxonMobil’s board does not support the resolution and fought unsuccessfully to have it dismissed by the SEC. Asked for comment, ExxonMobil spokesman Scott Silvestri referred The Huffington Post to the company’s proxy statement, which argues against the resolution.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
SK.Testie
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
Canada11084 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-15 03:04:32
May 15 2016 02:52 GMT
#76360
On May 15 2016 09:03 Lord Tolkien wrote:
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/hillary-doctrine-goldberg-landler/482667/


Well it certainly confirms what many assumed/knew. That she is indeed more of a hawk. But thanks for posting, was an interesting read.

The video may not pertain to readers in this thread, but I'd love it if Torontonians would take a listen to this and other Canadians who really want limits on free speech. Or those students as Mizzou etc.
+ Show Spoiler +
Yes it's from Alex Jones. No, it's not Alex Jones.
Social Justice is a fools errand. May all the adherents at its church be thwarted. Of all the religions I have come across, it is by far the most detestable.
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