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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3100

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 02 2016 01:26 GMT
#61981
different areas favoring different candidates are reporting
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 02 2016 01:26 GMT
#61982
Just a bit of context, what we're really looking at is whether each candidate still has a road to 50%+1 at the convention. Accounting for support so far, here's the Dem targets by Cook Political:

[image loading]

Source

If anyone has one of these for Republicans (that's better than the one FiveThirtyEight has, I'd be very glad if you posted it.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
March 02 2016 01:27 GMT
#61983
On March 02 2016 10:26 Ghanburighan wrote:
Just a bit of context, what we're really looking at is whether each candidate still has a road to 50%+1 at the convention. Accounting for support so far, here's the Dem targets by Cook Political:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Source

If anyone has one of these for Republicans (that's better than the one FiveThirtyEight has, I'd be very glad if you posted it.

Why does Sanders have to get 73 more delegates than Clinton today? o_o
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 02 2016 01:28 GMT
#61984
On March 02 2016 10:27 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2016 10:26 Ghanburighan wrote:
Just a bit of context, what we're really looking at is whether each candidate still has a road to 50%+1 at the convention. Accounting for support so far, here's the Dem targets by Cook Political:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Source

If anyone has one of these for Republicans (that's better than the one FiveThirtyEight has, I'd be very glad if you posted it.

Why does Sanders have to get 73 more delegates than Clinton today? o_o

he's behind
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
March 02 2016 01:28 GMT
#61985
On March 02 2016 10:28 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2016 10:27 The_Templar wrote:
On March 02 2016 10:26 Ghanburighan wrote:
Just a bit of context, what we're really looking at is whether each candidate still has a road to 50%+1 at the convention. Accounting for support so far, here's the Dem targets by Cook Political:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Source

If anyone has one of these for Republicans (that's better than the one FiveThirtyEight has, I'd be very glad if you posted it.

Why does Sanders have to get 73 more delegates than Clinton today? o_o

he's behind

The later states are more favorable to him and he's not that far behind.
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 02 2016 01:28 GMT
#61986
probably b/c hes behind right now
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 02 2016 01:30 GMT
#61987
The table in the "Source" outlines this precisely.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 02 2016 01:30 GMT
#61988
On March 02 2016 10:28 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2016 10:28 oneofthem wrote:
On March 02 2016 10:27 The_Templar wrote:
On March 02 2016 10:26 Ghanburighan wrote:
Just a bit of context, what we're really looking at is whether each candidate still has a road to 50%+1 at the convention. Accounting for support so far, here's the Dem targets by Cook Political:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Source

If anyone has one of these for Republicans (that's better than the one FiveThirtyEight has, I'd be very glad if you posted it.

Why does Sanders have to get 73 more delegates than Clinton today? o_o

he's behind

The later states are more favorable to him and he's not that far behind.

he has fewer superfriends
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Adreme
Profile Joined June 2011
United States5574 Posts
March 02 2016 01:32 GMT
#61989
On March 02 2016 10:28 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2016 10:28 oneofthem wrote:
On March 02 2016 10:27 The_Templar wrote:
On March 02 2016 10:26 Ghanburighan wrote:
Just a bit of context, what we're really looking at is whether each candidate still has a road to 50%+1 at the convention. Accounting for support so far, here's the Dem targets by Cook Political:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Source

If anyone has one of these for Republicans (that's better than the one FiveThirtyEight has, I'd be very glad if you posted it.

Why does Sanders have to get 73 more delegates than Clinton today? o_o

he's behind

The later states are more favorable to him and he's not that far behind.


She is going to take like 75% of the super delagates so he also has to make that up somewhere so even splitting the rest of the way is not good enough.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
March 02 2016 01:33 GMT
#61990
There's a fuckton of people at my republican caucus in Colorado.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 02 2016 01:33 GMT
#61991
If this were anyone else, then I'd expect Sanders to concede tomorrow. I don't see how he can win with these losses materializing. He'll probably stick around to push his message until at least the end of the month, though.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 02 2016 01:34 GMT
#61992
the supefriends arent taken into account, the cook model is for 50% + 1 of pledged delegates
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
kwizach
Profile Joined June 2011
3658 Posts
March 02 2016 01:36 GMT
#61993
Arkansas called for Hillary as well. Currently 5-1.
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions." -- Stephen Colbert
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
March 02 2016 01:37 GMT
#61994
On March 02 2016 10:33 xDaunt wrote:
There's a fuckton of people at my republican caucus in Colorado.


Who will you be voting for?
Adreme
Profile Joined June 2011
United States5574 Posts
March 02 2016 01:38 GMT
#61995
On March 02 2016 10:36 kwizach wrote:
Arkansas called for Hillary as well. Currently 5-1.


I think the bigger deal is that I dont think Sanders will get a single delagate from Arkansas based on those exit numbers.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 02 2016 01:38 GMT
#61996
On March 02 2016 10:37 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2016 10:33 xDaunt wrote:
There's a fuckton of people at my republican caucus in Colorado.


Who will you be voting for?


Vote Trump!
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 02 2016 01:41 GMT
#61997
And Trump takes Virginia. All but over for Rubio.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 02 2016 01:43 GMT
#61998
On March 02 2016 10:41 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
And Trump takes Virginia. All but over for Rubio.


First of all, you follow Fox.

Second, it's not clear yet. And Rubio outperformed his polls which is great news in a state which awards delegates proportionally.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
March 02 2016 01:44 GMT
#61999
On March 02 2016 10:43 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2016 10:41 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
And Trump takes Virginia. All but over for Rubio.


First of all, you follow Fox.

Second, it's not clear yet. And Rubio outperformed his polls which is great news in a state which awards delegates proportionally.


He is behind 20% in his home state and Rick Scott is set to endorse Trump tonight. It's over.
Adreme
Profile Joined June 2011
United States5574 Posts
March 02 2016 01:45 GMT
#62000
On March 02 2016 10:33 xDaunt wrote:
There's a fuckton of people at my republican caucus in Colorado.


So there are a ton of people at something that does not count? I respect that.
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