US Politics Mega-thread - Page 2841
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Slaughter
United States20254 Posts
On February 04 2016 06:14 oneofthem wrote: give it another 5 years of high corp profits and anemic overall demand and it'll be a forerunning issue. then maybe the FTC and the antitrust courts would do something Well it seems like eventually if you keep squeezing the majority of the populace and concentrating wealth into the few wouldn't it reach a point where those corp profits start to really hurt because the population can't afford to participate in the economy and buy the corporation's profits/services? Ofc the 1% will already have their wealth and won't have to worry but the system itself for new wealth creation seems like it would suffer and new people trying to start businesses can't because no one can afford to spend money to support it. | ||
GreenHorizons
United States22726 Posts
I'm optimistic that the most stubborn of the stubborn don't make up the majority of the country. On February 04 2016 06:18 Slaughter wrote: Well it seems like eventually if you keep squeezing the majority of the populace and concentrating wealth into the few wouldn't it reach a point where those corp profits start to really hurt because the population can't afford to participate in the economy and buy the corporation's profits/services? Ofc the 1% will already have their wealth and won't have to worry but the system itself for new wealth creation seems like it would suffer and new people trying to start businesses can't because no one can afford to spend money to support it. Trying to time it out with automation and a mass dying off of "unskilled' labor. The other part being the oligarchy or whatever you want to call it won't keep the rest of us around forever and it's going to be a small club. Not trying to be tin foil just saying if I was a billionaire narcissistic sociopath (not saying they all are "I assume... some are good people") sounds like one could solve a lot of problems with a genocide of the poor. Coal mining, and lumber ain't what it used to be and you could sustain a smaller population with a pretty insane quality of life. I'm reminded of a boiling frog... + Show Spoiler + https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APxGubAkOz0 | ||
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KwarK
United States41995 Posts
I absolutely maintain that the government does not have a planned budget of infinite money and universal tax rates of 100%. It has a planned budget of a finite amount of money and sets taxes accordingly. You cannot seriously maintain the alternative because it would literally mean that the government wants infinite money and will set taxes accordingly. That is the only possible reading. Taxes are adjusted based around planned budgets. Tax cuts are offset with tax increases. Tax increases are offset with tax cuts. It is absolutely reasonable to assume that an increased estate tax could go hand in hand with a decreased income tax. Let us consider the amount of extra labour done to provide for grandchildren beyond the cutoff of inheritance taxes would reduce due to an additional tax burden which still left the grandkids materially better off the more you left them. You're telling me that maybe grandpa is working to file patents at 70 so that his grandkids get 60% of the money from them (after receiving their 5m tax free allowance) but if they only got 40% of the money (again, after their 5m) grandpa would say "fuck it" and off himself. Well, while it sounds unlikely it's certainly possible. So we'll assume some lost productivity there because grandpa doesn't want to help his grandkids if it means it also helps pay for schools. However consider the man at work who just had his tax rate cut from 15% to 0%. Is it possible he might work harder now he's keeping 100% of his paycheck? I think that due to the offset the increased labour from the tax reduction would almost certainly exceed the decreased labour from the tax increase. Furthermore I think your entire scenario of the man selflessly working to provide a bigger inheritance for his grandkids who then stops because the marginal tax rate on the inheritance went up is a little silly. Even if they only got 10 cents on the dollar that still means every 10 dollars he leaves them puts another dollar in their pockets. | ||
oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On February 04 2016 06:18 Slaughter wrote: Well it seems like eventually if you keep squeezing the majority of the populace and concentrating wealth into the few wouldn't it reach a point where those corp profits start to really hurt because the population can't afford to participate in the economy and buy the corporation's profits/services? Ofc the 1% will already have their wealth and won't have to worry but the system itself for new wealth creation seems like it would suffer and new people trying to start businesses can't because no one can afford to spend money to support it. spending and profit is propped up by the high earning professional class. young people in tech and whatnot industries. established firms still enjoy pretty decent profit margins because of lack fo competition and intense short term focused cost cutting. | ||
Soap
Brazil1546 Posts
On February 04 2016 06:23 KwarK wrote: However consider the man at work who just had his tax rate cut from 15% to 0%. Is it possible he might work harder now he's keeping 100% of his paycheck? Apparently inheritance tax is around 1% of UK tax revenue, and income tax is around 30%. I don't think the math checks out. | ||
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KwarK
United States41995 Posts
On February 04 2016 06:41 Soap wrote: Apparently inheritance tax is around 1% of UK tax revenue, and income tax is around 30%. I don't think the math checks out. Well, seeing as you decided to try and be clever to do the maths, do you think you could do it properly? You see wealth is not spread evenly across the people. People taxed at 40% pay more than twice per person what people taxed at 20% pay because not only is the tax rate higher but also the amount of money being taxed is higher. You can actually get numbers on these things. ![]() So the 15% bracket starts at 10k taxable income which is about 20k AGI. Those are the guys paying 1.5% of the total tax receipts. You see it turns out that if you lower the tax rate on the really poor people from 15% to 0% it doesn't actually really change tax receipts because there is a little more to maths than "which % is higher". That 15% seems like a lot to the guy earning it because the guy earning it is poor as fuck but it's actually an insignificant part of tax receipts because 15% of fuck all is way, way less than 40% of quite a lot. Estate tax was included in the same source I used for that chart. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/13databk.pdf Feel free to get back to me with the numbers once you've run them. | ||
oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19573 Posts
On February 04 2016 06:23 KwarK wrote: @ Clutz I absolutely maintain that the government does not have a planned budget of infinite money and universal tax rates of 100%. It has a planned budget of a finite amount of money and sets taxes accordingly. You cannot seriously maintain the alternative because it would literally mean that the government wants infinite money and will set taxes accordingly. That is the only possible reading. Taxes are adjusted based around planned budgets. Tax cuts are offset with tax increases. Tax increases are offset with tax cuts. It is absolutely reasonable to assume that an increased estate tax could go hand in hand with a decreased income tax. I simply disagree with this theory. I think budgets are very much constrained by the long term politically feasible levels of tax revenues. And if raising the inheritance tax without lowering income tax is politically feasible it would raise budgets long term, which is a negative, to me. Which I know we will disagree on. Certain governments, or rather parties (because usually one opposes such things) would absolutely love the infinite money, 100% tax rate scheme, but don't implement such at thing because of political opposition, and, you know, reality. On February 04 2016 06:23 KwarK wrote: Let us consider the amount of extra labour done to provide for grandchildren beyond the cutoff of inheritance taxes would reduce due to an additional tax burden which still left the grandkids materially better off the more you left them. You're telling me that maybe grandpa is working to file patents at 70 so that his grandkids get 60% of the money from them (after receiving their 5m tax free allowance) but if they only got 40% of the money (again, after their 5m) grandpa would say "fuck it" and off himself. Well, while it sounds unlikely it's certainly possible. So we'll assume some lost productivity there because grandpa doesn't want to help his grandkids if it means it also helps pay for schools. However consider the man at work who just had his tax rate cut from 15% to 0%. Is it possible he might work harder now he's keeping 100% of his paycheck? You have just argued that there is a greater incentive to go from keeping 85% of your money to 100% (a 17% increase) than going from 40% to 60% (a 50% increase). | ||
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KwarK
United States41995 Posts
Estate tax brought in 24b in 2013. Let's say we double that (lower the threshold, throw in a private residence exemption up to, say, 1m, increase %s to make it more progressive). Income tax brought in 1.54t. Those first two groups, 45.9% of the population, brought in 1.7% of that. So, 1,540b * 0.017 = 26.18b. In short you could eliminate income taxes on 45% of the American population with estate taxes. | ||
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KwarK
United States41995 Posts
On February 04 2016 06:57 cLutZ wrote: You have just argued that there is a greater incentive to go from keeping 85% of your money to 100% (a 17% increase) than going from 40% to 60% (a 50% increase). Let's be clear. I've argued that there is a greater incentive to go from keeping 85% of your money to 100% when you are working poor than there is to go from keeping X% of your money to X% your money because the estate tax is not an income tax. Grandpa doesn't get taxed at 40% or 60%. Try not to confuse the issue. I did not argue that a 17% tax decrease was a bigger incentive than a 50% tax increase was a disincentive. Grandpa's income tax did not increase one cent. Where the 50% increase comes in is the estate tax. I think that if you are working to provide extra money for your grandkids then it comes down to the simple equation of "more money in = more money out". That's all. Now obviously there could be a hypothetical point where he says "fuck it" and doesn't work but a 50% increase (from 40% to 60%) doesn't fundamentally change the equation. Furthermore, if you want to compare apples to oranges by comparing an income tax to an estate tax, grandpa gets a 5.4m tax free allowance, the working poor guy doesn't get to just not pay tax on the first 5.4m he earns (which is more than he'll ever earn). | ||
GreenHorizons
United States22726 Posts
On February 04 2016 07:04 KwarK wrote: Let's be clear. I've argued that there is a greater incentive to go from keeping 85% of your money to 100% when you are working poor than there is to go from keeping X% of your money to X% your money because the estate tax is not an income tax. Grandpa doesn't get taxed at 40% or 60%. Try not to confuse the issue. I did not argue that a 17% tax decrease was a bigger incentive than a 50% tax increase was a disincentive. Grandpa's income tax did not increase one cent. Where the 50% increase comes in is the estate tax. I think that if you are working to provide extra money for your grandkids then it comes down to the simple equation of "more money in = more money out". That's all. Now obviously there could be a hypothetical point where he says "fuck it" and doesn't work but a 50% increase (from 40% to 60%) doesn't fundamentally change the equation. Furthermore, if you want to compare apples to oranges by comparing an income tax to an estate tax, grandpa gets a 5.4m tax free allowance, the working poor guy doesn't get to just not pay tax on the first 5.4m he earns (which is more than he'll ever earn). Yeah it's important to note Today, 99.8 percent of estates owe no estate tax at all, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.[3] Only the estates of the wealthiest 0.2 percent of Americans — roughly 2 out of every 1,000 people who die — owe any estate tax. (See Figure 1.) This is because of the tax’s high exemption amount, which has jumped from $650,000 per person in 2001 to $5.43 million per person in 2015. Source That's ANY estate tax. So that STARTS after 5.43 million for an individual $10 million for a couple. How they've got people pulling their weight for them here and around the country baffles me. Oh and to be clear "their" isn't the people who earned that money that person is dead. As much as I revile it I have to appreciate it's beauty. Finally to wrap that into our current political environment. The Sanders bill, a rewrite of a bill he introduced in 2010—the year the estate tax lapsed under the Bush tax cuts — would exempt the first $3.5 million on an individual’s estate from estate tax. (A married couple could shelter $7 million.) That’s a huge drop from current law, a “permanent” $5 million exemption, indexed for inflation, brokered effective Jan. 1, 2011. For 2015, the individual exemption is $5.43 million ($10.86 million for a married couple). Still just 3 out of every 1,000 people who die would be subject to estate tax under the Sanders bill, compared to 2 out of 1,000 now. Source Vs In 2012, nearly every GOP nominee for Congress signed the pledge which helped to make death tax repeal a top-tier issue in public debates. The pledge project attracted significant media attention with the Associated Press, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and the Hill all covering the project. This year, we will add to our number of signatories in Congress and begin to sign emerging 2016 Presidential candidates. http://www.deathtaxrepealpledge.org/ That's right they want to get rid of it altogether. Yep you guessed it, Rubio and Cruz have both already signed. | ||
Krikkitone
United States1451 Posts
On February 04 2016 06:59 KwarK wrote: Edit: Ran the numbers Estate tax brought in 24b in 2013. Let's say we double that (lower the threshold, throw in a private residence exemption up to, say, 1m, increase %s to make it more progressive). Income tax brought in 1.54t. Those first two groups, 45.9% of the population, brought in 1.7% of that. So, 1,540b * 0.017 = 26.18b. In short you could eliminate income taxes on 45% of the American population with estate taxes. You could also eliminate it on 45% of the population by just increasing the upper rates by a few %. and eliminating that populations income tax wouldn't be significant, the actual rate they pay (including both payroll and tax credits) is less than 5%. Which would be easier than an estate tax, because of the problem of estates involving illiquid assets, and involving sudden windfalls. (as opposed to income which is usually liquid and regular) It would probably be simpler to consider any form of Liquid assets that you get from an estate as simple income. (so if you inherit a business you pay 0 taxes until you sell the business or it pays you some profits) | ||
IgnE
United States7681 Posts
On February 04 2016 06:08 cLutZ wrote: Look, I don't mind your social argument, I am just explaining that your proposal wouldn't do what you think (aside from freeing up some space for workers to live), and tangentially explaining that the reason they invest that way is because that is what the government has incentivized them to do (through taxes and other policies). So, you are basically saying "the government was wrong, we should incentivize them to keep money in other ways." Which is mostly correct, downtown lofts should not be a great investment, but governments like it because (as you said) its really easy to tax and control real estate. I'm not sure what you thought he thought it would do, but freeing the city from real estate speculators is an important goal for the city and the people who live in it. "They will just put their money elsewhere" is kind of a dumb non sequitur. | ||
GreenHorizons
United States22726 Posts
Shots Fired! (Hillary has been shooting for a while btw) Context: Hillary called herself a progressive at her victory speech, Sanders crowd booed and called her a liar. Then the clip of her "pleading guilty" to being a moderate surfaced. CNN (I think) asked him if he thought Hillary was a progressive Bernie replied "some days" Hillary called it a personal attack and that she was disappointed Bernie responded with this. + Show Spoiler + https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/695019034585219073 | ||
aksfjh
United States4853 Posts
On February 04 2016 10:10 GreenHorizons wrote: Tonight (Town Hall) and tomorrow (Debate) are going to be HEATED. Shots Fired! (Hillary has been shooting for a while btw) Context: Hillary called herself a progressive at her victory speech, Sanders crowd booed and called her a liar. Then the clip of her "pleading guilty" to being a moderate surfaced. CNN (I think) asked him if he thought Hillary was a progressive Bernie replied "some days" Hillary called it a personal attack and that she was disappointed Bernie responded with this. + Show Spoiler + https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/695019034585219073 And here I was thinking I wasn't on Facebook. My bad. | ||
IgnE
United States7681 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22726 Posts
That better? | ||
cLutZ
United States19573 Posts
On February 04 2016 09:12 IgnE wrote: I'm not sure what you thought he thought it would do, but freeing the city from real estate speculators is an important goal for the city and the people who live in it. "They will just put their money elsewhere" is kind of a dumb non sequitur. He said it was a very useful wealth tax. So, bringing up the advantages of stopping high value real estate speculation was the non-sequitur (although a fine point). The problem I have with bringing up that point is that its basically feigning ignorance about why people think city property values will always be going up, which is because of lack of development caused by zoning regs, rent controls, and uncertain permitting processes. Also its because they don't trust their own governments in Russia, China, Qatar, etc so they park it here, and we don't just let them park piles of gold in a secure fashion. Its a bit of a ridiculous way to solve a problem...that has really obvious other causes. | ||
darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
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