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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 1410

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

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Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
November 06 2014 22:42 GMT
#28181
Six Circuit supports state constitutional bans on homosexual marriage. This has created a circuit split as other federal appellate circuits have declared them unconstitutional and the Supreme Court choose not to review those cases. But now it has to.
Speculate on the causes all you want; but places with large (and especially recent) minorities have a lot more social division and crime. For it's diversity, the US is remarkably good in all of this.

Vancouver or Toronto are probably significantly more heterogeneous than almost any American city except NYC/SF/L, with a pretty high proportion of first or second generation immigrants yet the crime levels here are a fraction.
Alex1Sun
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
494 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-06 22:59:07
November 06 2014 22:54 GMT
#28182
On November 07 2014 07:21 Yoav wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2014 04:27 Nyxisto wrote:
On November 07 2014 04:13 m4ini wrote:
Which ones would that be? USA: 14% immigrants, Germany: 12%, Australia: 24%. (numbers are 2013, but still good enough to show that you pulled an argument out of thin air).

That's a silly comparison. The US is only 250 years old. By European cultural standards pretty much every American is an immigrant with a different cultural heritage. Even the American "non-immigrants" go back so few generations that they simply aren't comparable to European nations in terms of homogeneity.


This is true, and it understates the case. When we did it in my high school class, I was the only white person in the room who didn't primarily trace back to an immigrant wave (or several) since the 1850s or so (Slave trade was the big "immigration" wave for black people, and was outlawed in the early 1800s, so the average black person has much deeper roots than the average white person in the USA.). So for most Americans, that's not a lot of generations. Even "white" Americans often think of themselves as being in one or another ethnic subgroup. Irish, Scottish, Pennsylvania Dutch, actual Dutch, white Hispanic (often further self-defining by country)... Hell, for the part of my growing up I did in the US, I knew immigrants or children of immigrants from every continent but Antarctica. It's not sheer numbers, it's the incredible diversity.

And for people who say, so what, this stuff doesn't matter: actually do your the math. Do a map of ethnically homogeneous countries against a map of low-crime countries. Ethnic diversity is great for culture; it's also terrible for crime stats. Speculate on the causes all you want; but places with large (and especially recent) minorities have a lot more social division and crime. For it's diversity, the US is remarkably good in all of this.

And, as everybody's pointing out, the situation of US blacks is unique among first world countries. It will be interesting as India and Brazil develop to see how other countries that once depended on an enslaved race (or set of races) are able to join the modern world.

Exactly the same can be said about such countries and Australia and New Zealand, i.e. recent immigration from all over the place, ethnically very diverse, recent (indigenous instead of black) slavery etc. Yet murder rate in Australia and New Zealand is there with Western Europe and developed Asian countries.
This is not Warcraft in space!
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10934 Posts
November 06 2014 22:58 GMT
#28183
but you don't understand.. because.. muuuurica
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-06 23:21:56
November 06 2014 23:16 GMT
#28184
The overwhelming majority of Australians is ethnically British if I'm not mistaken. Also Australia enforces the English language and assimilation way more than the US does.

"According to the 2006 census, close to 79 per cent of Australia’s population spoke only English at home. The three most common languages other than English were Italian (accounting for 1.6 per cent of the population), Greek (1.3 per cent) and Cantonese (1.2 per cent)"

That's not really comparable to the US. The second most common language isn't even spoken by 2% of the population while the US has states with multiple official languages.
Alex1Sun
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
494 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-07 01:17:16
November 06 2014 23:23 GMT
#28185
On November 07 2014 08:16 Nyxisto wrote:
The overwhelming majority of Australians is ethnically British if I'm not mistaken. Also Australia enforces the English language and assimilation way more than the US does.

"According to the 2006 census, close to 79 per cent of Australia’s population spoke only English at home. The three most common languages other than English were Italian (accounting for 1.6 per cent of the population), Greek (1.3 per cent) and Cantonese (1.2 per cent)"

That's not really comparable to the US. The second most common language isn't even spoken by 2% of the population while the US has states with multiple official languages.

Australia is very similar to the USA in regards to different spoken languages (if you don't focus on second language in particular and look at overall distribution): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_the_United_States, the only difference is official language recognition.
This is not Warcraft in space!
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
November 07 2014 00:50 GMT
#28186
On November 07 2014 07:41 Alex1Sun wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2014 05:47 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 06 2014 17:49 Velr wrote:
Its the combination of These things:

Lack of social System/loads of poor People ---> Just look at your Ghettos. These do not exist to that extend anywhere else in the western world. Your GDP might be high, but that doesn't do shit for the people at the bottom. "Inequality" not "poverty"is "driving" people into crime.

Loads of Guns --> Its way more likely that guns are involved into "disagreements" in the US than damn near anywhere else, therefore there is a higher chance of someone dieing in "fights".

Stand your Ground/Cowboy mentality or in short "culture" --> In western europe we tend to call the Cops if we spot a Burglar/Intruder. Most of us wouldn’t have the gun to actually "stand our ground" nor would I be willing to shoot someone just becaues he tries to rob me. Armed robberies are also incredibly rare here, 99% of burglars just flee once spotted...

Not sure about the inequality argument. Inequality has been rising and crime has been falling. Same for social systems. Crime was lower in the 50's and 60's and we mostly spent money on the military back then. I could see a relationship between crime and the disuse of mental hospitals though.


That IS actually an interesting observation. As far as I know the recent rise of inequality in USA can be mostly attributed to stagnation of income for a median worker and hollowing out of the middle class. At the same time republicans claim that those near poverty now benefit from more welfare than ever. If this claim is correct, then murders seem to be correlated with the living conditions at the very bottom of the economic ladder rather than with inequality in general. This also appears to agree with low murder rate in European South, where despite rampant unemployment and substantial poverty, being poor and unemployed does NOT usually equal being homeless.

The lowest 10% of earners here earn more here than the bottom 10% in Italy, and the living conditions of those at the very bottom have been improving with time. So I don't find the living conditions argument to be very powerful.
Alex1Sun
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
494 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-07 01:24:28
November 07 2014 01:12 GMT
#28187
On November 07 2014 09:50 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2014 07:41 Alex1Sun wrote:
On November 07 2014 05:47 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 06 2014 17:49 Velr wrote:
Its the combination of These things:

Lack of social System/loads of poor People ---> Just look at your Ghettos. These do not exist to that extend anywhere else in the western world. Your GDP might be high, but that doesn't do shit for the people at the bottom. "Inequality" not "poverty"is "driving" people into crime.

Loads of Guns --> Its way more likely that guns are involved into "disagreements" in the US than damn near anywhere else, therefore there is a higher chance of someone dieing in "fights".

Stand your Ground/Cowboy mentality or in short "culture" --> In western europe we tend to call the Cops if we spot a Burglar/Intruder. Most of us wouldn’t have the gun to actually "stand our ground" nor would I be willing to shoot someone just becaues he tries to rob me. Armed robberies are also incredibly rare here, 99% of burglars just flee once spotted...

Not sure about the inequality argument. Inequality has been rising and crime has been falling. Same for social systems. Crime was lower in the 50's and 60's and we mostly spent money on the military back then. I could see a relationship between crime and the disuse of mental hospitals though.


That IS actually an interesting observation. As far as I know the recent rise of inequality in USA can be mostly attributed to stagnation of income for a median worker and hollowing out of the middle class. At the same time republicans claim that those near poverty now benefit from more welfare than ever. If this claim is correct, then murders seem to be correlated with the living conditions at the very bottom of the economic ladder rather than with inequality in general. This also appears to agree with low murder rate in European South, where despite rampant unemployment and substantial poverty, being poor and unemployed does NOT usually equal being homeless.

The lowest 10% of earners here earn more here than the bottom 10% in Italy, and the living conditions of those at the very bottom have been improving with time. So I don't find the living conditions argument to be very powerful.

That's what I mean. They have been improving, hence lower murder rate in USA compared to 90ies. Although I agree that this might be a weaker correlation compared to guns and overall mentality, hence a drastic difference from all other developed and several developing countries.
This is not Warcraft in space!
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
November 07 2014 01:27 GMT
#28188
On November 07 2014 10:12 Alex1Sun wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2014 09:50 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 07 2014 07:41 Alex1Sun wrote:
On November 07 2014 05:47 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 06 2014 17:49 Velr wrote:
Its the combination of These things:

Lack of social System/loads of poor People ---> Just look at your Ghettos. These do not exist to that extend anywhere else in the western world. Your GDP might be high, but that doesn't do shit for the people at the bottom. "Inequality" not "poverty"is "driving" people into crime.

Loads of Guns --> Its way more likely that guns are involved into "disagreements" in the US than damn near anywhere else, therefore there is a higher chance of someone dieing in "fights".

Stand your Ground/Cowboy mentality or in short "culture" --> In western europe we tend to call the Cops if we spot a Burglar/Intruder. Most of us wouldn’t have the gun to actually "stand our ground" nor would I be willing to shoot someone just becaues he tries to rob me. Armed robberies are also incredibly rare here, 99% of burglars just flee once spotted...

Not sure about the inequality argument. Inequality has been rising and crime has been falling. Same for social systems. Crime was lower in the 50's and 60's and we mostly spent money on the military back then. I could see a relationship between crime and the disuse of mental hospitals though.


That IS actually an interesting observation. As far as I know the recent rise of inequality in USA can be mostly attributed to stagnation of income for a median worker and hollowing out of the middle class. At the same time republicans claim that those near poverty now benefit from more welfare than ever. If this claim is correct, then murders seem to be correlated with the living conditions at the very bottom of the economic ladder rather than with inequality in general. This also appears to agree with low murder rate in European South, where despite rampant unemployment and substantial poverty, being poor and unemployed does NOT usually equal being homeless.

The lowest 10% of earners here earn more here than the bottom 10% in Italy, and the living conditions of those at the very bottom have been improving with time. So I don't find the living conditions argument to be very powerful.

That's what I mean. They have been improving, hence lower murder rate in USA compared to 90ies. Although I agree that this might be a weaker correlation compared to guns and overall mentality, hence a drastic difference from all other developed and several developing countries.

Oh, ok. But then why would it rise from a pretty low point in the 50's and 60's through to the 90's?
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-07 01:34:30
November 07 2014 01:34 GMT
#28189
I think in addition to the bazillion guns which probably aren't helping the biggest problem is simply the incarceration rate. The US has 2.2 million people in prison (600k more than China), although only having like one fifth of the population. That's just completely insane.
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
November 07 2014 02:41 GMT
#28190
Socioeconomic homogeneity far more important than racial homogeneity. Europe is more socioeconomically homogeneous.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
November 07 2014 02:53 GMT
#28191
Well if you by racial mean cultural then I highly doubt that. Economically speaking France is pretty homogeneous. But please try to wear a Burka while walking into a public building or try to marry two persons of the same sex and watch what happens. Economics obviously play a role because being financially secure obviously never hurts but culture plays an immense role in a lot of countries.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24191 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-07 02:56:05
November 07 2014 02:55 GMT
#28192
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Alex1Sun
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
494 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-07 03:24:32
November 07 2014 03:16 GMT
#28193
On November 07 2014 10:27 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2014 10:12 Alex1Sun wrote:
On November 07 2014 09:50 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 07 2014 07:41 Alex1Sun wrote:
On November 07 2014 05:47 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 06 2014 17:49 Velr wrote:
Its the combination of These things:

Lack of social System/loads of poor People ---> Just look at your Ghettos. These do not exist to that extend anywhere else in the western world. Your GDP might be high, but that doesn't do shit for the people at the bottom. "Inequality" not "poverty"is "driving" people into crime.

Loads of Guns --> Its way more likely that guns are involved into "disagreements" in the US than damn near anywhere else, therefore there is a higher chance of someone dieing in "fights".

Stand your Ground/Cowboy mentality or in short "culture" --> In western europe we tend to call the Cops if we spot a Burglar/Intruder. Most of us wouldn’t have the gun to actually "stand our ground" nor would I be willing to shoot someone just becaues he tries to rob me. Armed robberies are also incredibly rare here, 99% of burglars just flee once spotted...

Not sure about the inequality argument. Inequality has been rising and crime has been falling. Same for social systems. Crime was lower in the 50's and 60's and we mostly spent money on the military back then. I could see a relationship between crime and the disuse of mental hospitals though.


That IS actually an interesting observation. As far as I know the recent rise of inequality in USA can be mostly attributed to stagnation of income for a median worker and hollowing out of the middle class. At the same time republicans claim that those near poverty now benefit from more welfare than ever. If this claim is correct, then murders seem to be correlated with the living conditions at the very bottom of the economic ladder rather than with inequality in general. This also appears to agree with low murder rate in European South, where despite rampant unemployment and substantial poverty, being poor and unemployed does NOT usually equal being homeless.

The lowest 10% of earners here earn more here than the bottom 10% in Italy, and the living conditions of those at the very bottom have been improving with time. So I don't find the living conditions argument to be very powerful.

That's what I mean. They have been improving, hence lower murder rate in USA compared to 90ies. Although I agree that this might be a weaker correlation compared to guns and overall mentality, hence a drastic difference from all other developed and several developing countries.

Oh, ok. But then why would it rise from a pretty low point in the 50's and 60's through to the 90's?

Ok, I agree, it does not seem to correlate with inequality or poverty in USA (although such correlations have been observed in some other places). I guess in USA it is a really complex issue and probably cannot be solved easily or quickly.
This is not Warcraft in space!
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
November 07 2014 03:18 GMT
#28194
On November 07 2014 11:53 Nyxisto wrote:
Well if you by racial mean cultural then I highly doubt that. Economically speaking France is pretty homogeneous. But please try to wear a Burka while walking into a public building or try to marry two persons of the same sex and watch what happens. Economics obviously play a role because being financially secure obviously never hurts but culture plays an immense role in a lot of countries.


Are there a lot of gun homicides in France, Nyx?
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
November 07 2014 03:20 GMT
#28195
On November 07 2014 12:18 IgnE wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2014 11:53 Nyxisto wrote:
Well if you by racial mean cultural then I highly doubt that. Economically speaking France is pretty homogeneous. But please try to wear a Burka while walking into a public building or try to marry two persons of the same sex and watch what happens. Economics obviously play a role because being financially secure obviously never hurts but culture plays an immense role in a lot of countries.


Are there a lot of gun homicides in France, Nyx?

There are a lot more gun homocides in brazil than in mexico, but economically they are relatively unequal countries AND racially mixed. China has low gun homocides despite being incredibly unequal.
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
November 07 2014 03:40 GMT
#28196
China has no guns. Doesn't count.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-07 03:49:25
November 07 2014 03:48 GMT
#28197
On November 07 2014 12:18 IgnE wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2014 11:53 Nyxisto wrote:
Well if you by racial mean cultural then I highly doubt that. Economically speaking France is pretty homogeneous. But please try to wear a Burka while walking into a public building or try to marry two persons of the same sex and watch what happens. Economics obviously play a role because being financially secure obviously never hurts but culture plays an immense role in a lot of countries.


Are there a lot of gun homicides in France, Nyx?


Well the gun homicide rate if Wikipedia is reliable is a third of what it is in the US but the gun/capita rate also is a third so I'd say it's comparable in that regard

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate

That's two to three times as much as in other European countries, so yes I'd say there are quite a lot of gun related killings in France.
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
November 07 2014 03:48 GMT
#28198
On November 07 2014 12:20 Sub40APM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2014 12:18 IgnE wrote:
On November 07 2014 11:53 Nyxisto wrote:
Well if you by racial mean cultural then I highly doubt that. Economically speaking France is pretty homogeneous. But please try to wear a Burka while walking into a public building or try to marry two persons of the same sex and watch what happens. Economics obviously play a role because being financially secure obviously never hurts but culture plays an immense role in a lot of countries.


Are there a lot of gun homicides in France, Nyx?

There are a lot more gun homocides in brazil than in mexico, but economically they are relatively unequal countries AND racially mixed. China has low gun homocides despite being incredibly unequal.

Doesn't Brazil have much denser metro populations than Mexico?
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-07 04:26:27
November 07 2014 03:53 GMT
#28199
On November 07 2014 12:48 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2014 12:18 IgnE wrote:
On November 07 2014 11:53 Nyxisto wrote:
Well if you by racial mean cultural then I highly doubt that. Economically speaking France is pretty homogeneous. But please try to wear a Burka while walking into a public building or try to marry two persons of the same sex and watch what happens. Economics obviously play a role because being financially secure obviously never hurts but culture plays an immense role in a lot of countries.


Are there a lot of gun homicides in France, Nyx?


Well the gun homicide rate if Wikipedia is reliable is a third of what it is in the US but the gun/capita rate also is a third so I'd say it's comparable in that regard

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate

That's two to three times as much as in other European countries, so yes I'd say there are quite a lot of gun related killings in France.


You are reading that wrong. France's homicide rate is 0.22 and United States is 3.6 per 100,000. The US has ~1500% more gun-related homicides. So no, there aren't a lot of gun related homicides. Thanks for your input, as usual, Nyx.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-11-07 04:00:58
November 07 2014 03:57 GMT
#28200
there's quite a bit of social conflict motivated slashing and other 'domestic terrorism' cases in china.

but anyway i'm not sure what the discussion is about, besides rejecting a simplistic and really "who the hell even thinks like this" thesis about racial homogeneity. simply what the fuck?
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
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