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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 105

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14047 Posts
February 15 2013 17:09 GMT
#2081
Apparently they can't actually filibuster his nomination and hes going to go though next week or so anyway. This same thing happened during bush's presidency with democrats delaying the nomination until a voice vote where the majority was able to get him though anyway.

Much ado about nothing I guess is the phase of this whole event. God damm every time I get away from this thread it pulls be back in.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18838 Posts
February 15 2013 18:08 GMT
#2082
On February 16 2013 02:09 Sermokala wrote:
Apparently they can't actually filibuster his nomination and hes going to go though next week or so anyway. This same thing happened during bush's presidency with democrats delaying the nomination until a voice vote where the majority was able to get him though anyway.

Much ado about nothing I guess is the phase of this whole event. God damm every time I get away from this thread it pulls be back in.

Yep, this sort of dynamic will play out in a variety of ways during the next few years. Republicans know that there is relatively little they can do to get in the way of many of Obama's goals, so in the meantime, they will make damn sure they do not pull the few good punches they can throw. Just wait until we start hearing more about executive orders, oh boy!
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
February 15 2013 20:30 GMT
#2083
On February 15 2013 21:00 paralleluniverse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2013 00:22 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On February 13 2013 18:19 paralleluniverse wrote:
On February 13 2013 17:35 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On February 13 2013 17:20 paralleluniverse wrote:
On February 13 2013 07:59 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On February 13 2013 07:22 paralleluniverse wrote:
On February 13 2013 04:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On February 12 2013 23:07 paralleluniverse wrote:
SotU tonight. The media buzz seems to suggest that Obama will focus on jobs, instead of the counterproductive obsession with deficits. Hopefully, he really will focus on jobs, ask for more spending on infrastructure, education, etc. It's doubtful that he will get it, but reshaping the public debate is a important step now.

I don't think he can completely ignore talking about deficits, given that the sequester is imminent. He should clearly reject Republicans saying that there will be no tax hikes as the deal averting the fiscal cliff contained entirely tax hikes. This ignores the fact that the deficit reduction deal of 2011 contained entirely spending cuts, muche lh more so than recent tax hikes. In fact, and I know this will never happen, he should ask for the sequester to be delayed until 1 year after the unemployment rate hits 6.5%.

Obama should continue to assert that the best way to achieve fiscal sustainability is not through cuts and suffering but through growth and jobs. It would also be good, if he outlines some debt relief for underwater homeowners, and ways to make it easier for them to refinance, or otherwise fix the drag caused by the slow housing recovery.

However, SotUs usually seem to achieve nothing substantial. So one should not expect much.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think those cuts were just reductions in the baseline growth rate of spending.

Depends how you look at it. There's been reductions in the rate of growth of spending, i.e. spending is increasing slower than normal. But there's also has been actual reduction in spending as a share of GDP. i.e. spending as a percentage of GDP is down, see FRED. There's also been reduction in spending government consumption and investment.

People need to get over this obsession, at least for until the economy is better.

So yes, spending cuts, actual reductions in the level of spending, have not been enacted yet.

Got it.

Well, actual reductions in population growth also haven't happened yet. So what's your point? Either way you slice it, whether you prefer to view it as a reduction in the rate of spending increase, or a slower increase in nominal spending, or an actual reduction in spending per GDP, it's still dramatic, large, and not normal. And more importantly, not good for the economy.

Where do you get cause to state that? Certainly not your FRED chart.

Well, from that graph it's clearly a large reduction. Have there been larger reductions in the past? Yes, but you have to go back a few decades, and economic growth as stronger back them, whereas now the economy is weak. From this post several days ago which you seen, it's not really normal. Normal would be continuing the previous trend.

But anyway, what's the point? That spending hasn't been cut and that the $2.5 trillion agreed to in cuts aren't really cuts?

Well no, the normal thing to do is not follow the trend. There are periods where government expenditures saw robust growth and periods of paltry growth. If the trend in the 90's had been sustained government expenditures would be less than today. Also note that many of the previous trends were unsustainable and would have grown government to over 100% of GDP if left unchecked.

Regardless the $2.5T in agreed to cuts aren't really cuts. They're cuts to a projected reality that will almost certainly not exist.

But beside that point only about $1T is actually agreed to. The other $1.5T is what congress is supposed to replace the $1.2T sequester with. Instead the move right now is to replace the $1.2T sequester with something less. (I assume we're talking about the $2.5T from the budget control act?)

The $1.5 trillion cut agreed to in 2011 does not include the $1.2 trillion sequester, it doesn't even include interest savings. The $1.5 trillion number comes from CBPP:
Show nested quote +
Note: the Budget Control Act also required across-the-board budget cuts, called sequestration, if the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, otherwise known as the “supercommittee,” failed. The $1.5 trillion in budget reductions discussed here do not include the additional budget cuts that will be made if sequestration takes place.

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3840

Your argument that spending hasn't really been cut because projected spending isn't real, would also imply that projected deficits aren't real either. For example, all projections of healthcare costs exceeding 1000% of GDP in the future can't be real, because the country would collapse before healthcare costs could ever get to 1000% of GDP. Therefore, the deficit problem, by this reasoning, is not real.

You also seem to think that an actual decrease in the rate of spending isn't a cut, a change in spending of less than 0 is a cut, and any change in spending greater than 0 is not a cut. In plain English, this would be right. But I don't think it's the correct way to think about in the context of the economic effects. In budget jargon, a cut is a reduction in spending from the baseline, so that an increase in spending can still be a cut if it had been projected to increase even more. Moreover, there's nothing economically special about a change in spending of 0 that justifies we call a change less than it a cut. If we expect spending of $X as determined by current policy (a baseline) and get less than it, then the role of government has in a sense been shrunk, so we can call this a cut. Or economically, we require spending of $X to fill a deficiency of demand, but then we get far less, whatever you want to call it, a cut or an increase, there isn't enough spending in the economy.

The CBO pegged the cuts at <$1T. The CBPP's $1.5T comes from using different baseline assumptions. Now which baseline is better? I don't know and neither does the economy. A baseline is just a tool - use whichever one you want.

Now to your next point you are correct. The projected deficits are indeed not real. However, we cannot ignore them. The projected deficit / debt levels (and budgets in general for that matter) are a tool - just like a baseline - for identifying problems early on. That's useful because identifying problems early gives you more flexibility in deciding how to solve the problem.

Projections in health care spending will certainly not come to pass. The US economy will not be comprised of 1000% spending on healthcare - it's just not possible. But identifying that problem now means that we have more flexibility in how society addresses the problem.

To your last point I will stick to the topic of healthcare. A criticism of healthcare in the US is that it is too expensive. As a percent of GDP we in the US pay way too much for sub-standard (as compared to W. Europe) care. Reducing the cost of healthcare is almost universally described as a potential benefit to the economy.

But healthcare spending is spending - so why aren't arguments being made that reducing the cost of healthcare would throw the US economy into a recession? Because it would sound ridiculous (and rightly so!). What matters is not the 'level of spending' on healthcare. What matters is the level of service relative to the cost of the service (what value is being created).

So who really cares how much the government spends? If it is spending money on useful and wanted things then great - find an appropriate method to finance it and there you go. If it isn't useful and wanted then cut it - if GDP falls than so be it. It will not be missed.
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
February 15 2013 21:31 GMT
#2084
Some headlines.

Former Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) will plead guilty to conspiring with his wife to illegally spend $750,000 in campaign funds on personal expenses, including a $43,000 Rolex watch, fur coats and memorabilia associated with Michael Jackson, Martin Luther King Jr., Malcolm X and Bruce Lee, according to information obtained by POLITICO.

The charges against him will include conspiracy, making false statements, and mail and wire fraud.

Prosecutors will recommend a prison sentence of between 46 months and 57 months for Jackson Jr., as well as a fine of $10,000 to $100,000, and forfeiture of a yet-to-be-determined portion of the misspent $750,000 in campaign funds.

Jackson’s wife, former Chicago Alderman Sandi Jackson, is expected to plead guilty to a tax offense, according to a source close to the investigation. At different times, she has served as her husband’s campaign manager and campaign treasurer. Both Jacksons resigned from office amid the Justice Department’s investigation into their finances.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/jesse-jackson-jr-to-plead-guilty-to-federal-charges-87716.html?hp=t1_3


Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell signed on to a bill legalizing hemp production on Thursday, one day after the Senate in his home state of Kentucky voted to legalize the plant.

“I am proud to introduce legislation with my friend Rand Paul that will allow Kentucky farmers to harness the economic potential that industrial hemp can provide,” McConnell said in a statement. “During these tough economic times, this legislation has the potential to create jobs and provide a boost to Kentucky’s economy and to our farmers and their families.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/mitch-mcconnell-for-bipartisan-hemp-bill-87710.html?hp=r7



And my personal favorite.

NEW YORK — Some bankers hoped that Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the liberal firebrand who helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, would be subdued in her first term as she learned the ways of the Senate. Warren’s avoidance of the Beltway media appeared to stoke these hopes.

Well, forget it.

Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, came out blazing Thursday in her first high-profile appearance as a member of the Senate Banking Committee, ripping into regulators and starkly suggesting banks might be cooking their books.

...

Warren’s tough public stance on Thursday contrasted with her overall low-key approach since entering the Senate. She has not sought the spotlight, adopting the same strategy used by other first-term senators who are already national icons, including former New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Warren’s comment at the hearing on bank accounting came after she repeatedly — and apparently rhetorically — asked a panel of top regulators to cite the last time they had hauled a big Wall Street bank into court rather than settled. There were mostly halting responses and promises to get back to Warren with more information at a later time.

That question — why there has not been more accountability for top bankers in the wake of the 2008 financial meltdown — taps into a deep vein of public anger on both the left and right. And it is Warren’s most potent political weapon.

Video of Warren’s appearance at the Banking Committee got heavy traffic Thursday on Twitter and left-leaning websites. The performance suggests Warren will keep pounding bankers from her perch in the Senate for years to come, including as critical final pieces of the Dodd-Frank law covering bank risk-taking trading and other formerly lucrative activities are completed. Some bankers hoped that final rule-making process would take place far from the spotlight. Warren’s fiery questions on Thursday suggests that will not be possible.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/why-elizabeth-warren-scares-wall-street-87714.html?hp=t2_3
Writer
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-15 21:59:19
February 15 2013 21:33 GMT
#2085
hah! go elizabeth. jail me some bankers plz

On February 16 2013 05:30 JonnyBNoHo wrote: If it isn't useful and wanted then cut it - if GDP falls than so be it. It will not be missed.


easy to say, but it doesn't work that way. way better for capitalism if people smoke and then buy cancer drugs, than if they don't smoke and don't buy cancer drugs. Being healthy from square one doesn't make anybody any money. Capitalism never wants to do things right the first time, that's a sucker's game.
shikata ga nai
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
February 16 2013 00:01 GMT
#2086
On February 16 2013 06:33 sam!zdat wrote:
hah! go elizabeth. jail me some bankers plz

I shouldn't be a fan but if a lady from MA wants to beat up some bankers from NY I can't help but feel warm and fuzzy inside

Show nested quote +
On February 16 2013 05:30 JonnyBNoHo wrote: If it isn't useful and wanted then cut it - if GDP falls than so be it. It will not be missed.


easy to say, but it doesn't work that way. way better for capitalism if people smoke and then buy cancer drugs, than if they don't smoke and don't buy cancer drugs. Being healthy from square one doesn't make anybody any money. Capitalism never wants to do things right the first time, that's a sucker's game.
Yeah that's kinda what I was getting at, though I was thinking of it as an accounting problem.
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
February 16 2013 02:53 GMT
#2087
an accounting problem! Hah! No my friend, I'm afraid it's a basic structural contradiction in the social order, which can be temporarily relieved but never remedied (this side of the revolution, at least )
shikata ga nai
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
February 16 2013 04:55 GMT
#2088
Warren may be the only Senator I actually like these days.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
February 16 2013 06:25 GMT
#2089
well, a large part of the charm of the user as content creator 'new economy' is in the way people can choose what's 'useful' for them. not exactly centralized socialism, but a concrete example of capitalism not totally awesome 100% of the time
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
February 16 2013 06:29 GMT
#2090
the distributed mode of production produces use-values, not commodities :D
shikata ga nai
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
February 16 2013 17:09 GMT
#2091
While most Republican members of Congress have been lukewarm at best to the prospect of legalizing marijuana, senators introduced a bipartisan measure this week to legalize industrial hemp. Riding on the passage of a recent Kentucky Senate bills to ease hemp growing, the state’s Republican senators, Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul joined Oregon Democratic Senators Jeff Merkley and Ron Wyden in introducing a bill to legalize production of the strain of cannabis used in the production of goods.

Hemp is a plant in the cannabis family with significantly lower levels of the psychoactive component, THC, than most varieties that are smoked or consumed. It is used to make textiles, paper, paints, clothing, plastics, cosmetics, foodstuffs, insulation, animal feed and other products, according to NORML. Hemp is nonetheless lumped in with all other cannabis products, which are classified as Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act, the most restrictive of the five schedules designated for those substances considered dangerous with no currently accepted medical value.

The bill, which would would remove hemp from the controlled substances list and define it as a non-drug so long as it contains less than 0.3 percent THC, is a small demonstration of fading hysteria over anything “cannabis” that emerged in the era of “Reefer Madness.” It also raises questions, however, about federal support for legalizing at least those strains of medical cannabis that have very low levels of THC, as well as those chemical compounds extracted from marijuana that are low in THC.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
February 16 2013 22:18 GMT
#2092
Raising minimum wage

Here's a brief read on modern minimum wage impact findings. Looks promising for advocates.
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-16 22:22:20
February 16 2013 22:21 GMT
#2093
raise wages first, fix other problems as they fall out.

edit: lol, do classical economists really believe this??


Everyone’s being paid precisely their marginal product (their value added to their firm’s production at the margin)


lololololololololol
shikata ga nai
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
February 16 2013 22:29 GMT
#2094
On February 17 2013 07:21 sam!zdat wrote:
raise wages first, fix other problems as they fall out.

edit: lol, do classical economists really believe this??

Show nested quote +

Everyone’s being paid precisely their marginal product (their value added to their firm’s production at the margin)


lololololololololol

And Libertarians. Not uncommon to see a long winded study to come out of CATO that defend that view.
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-16 22:32:16
February 16 2013 22:31 GMT
#2095
Where do they think profit comes from? This boggles my mind. If that were true, why would anybody ever hire anybody? Out of the goodness of their job creating hearts? bitches need to read their das kapital, man
shikata ga nai
Shiragaku
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Hong Kong4308 Posts
February 16 2013 22:34 GMT
#2096
If anything, more people calling themselves libertarian should read Wealth of Nations rather than holding onto it.
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
February 16 2013 22:37 GMT
#2097
On February 17 2013 07:31 sam!zdat wrote:
Where do they think profit comes from? This boggles my mind. If that were true, why would anybody ever hire anybody? Out of the goodness of their job creating hearts? bitches need to read their das kapital, man

Because CEOs and executives are actually underpaid! Or because the capital invested deserves a slight discount on that labor. Really though, idk. I'm always confused by their logic and stances.
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-16 22:59:53
February 16 2013 22:40 GMT
#2098
On February 17 2013 07:31 sam!zdat wrote:
Where do they think profit comes from? This boggles my mind. If that were true, why would anybody ever hire anybody? Out of the goodness of their job creating hearts? bitches need to read their das kapital, man

Marginal cost includes a 'normal profit'

Edit: Excess profits / less than normal profits are then signals to increase / decrease production.

Reality is much more complicated.

Edit 2: margins are not averages:

[image loading]

If we were to pay workers a rate at which marginal cost = marginal revenue we can still turn a profit based on average cost.
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-16 23:01:44
February 16 2013 22:54 GMT
#2099
What is a "normal profit" and says who

edit: and, thanks very much jonny, but I'm the one pointing out the complicatedness of reality, not the classical economists with their faux-mathematical air castles

edit: so we can agree that employees are not paid their contribution to the firm's value, but are in fact paid their contribution divided by the rate of exploitation. Straight out of das kapital

edit:
On February 17 2013 07:40 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
If we were to pay workers a rate at which marginal cost = marginal revenue we can still turn a profit based on average cost.


only because you've handwaved away the fact that all surplus value is derived from the exploitation of labor-power by recourse to some flimsy "normal profit" construct
shikata ga nai
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
February 16 2013 23:05 GMT
#2100
start with some perfect market assumptions and you can draw any conclusions. also, the possessive kind of property rights we have makes economic rent inevitable.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
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