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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4276 Posts
On October 14 2024 23:56 Sorusaba wrote: Do you feel it in the air? The season? The leaves are falling. An ancient prophecy quietly stirs... A protoss victory would be absolutely amazing. Oh man.. The Legend of the Fall.. I REALLY hope it happens. The realist in me still thinks Soulkey is going to spoil it all with a three-peat though. | ||
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whylessness
United States376 Posts
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BulgarianToss
Bulgaria495 Posts
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TMNT
3296 Posts
(provided Hero beats Sharp - nothing is certain at this point) However, Soulkey would eat them both alive in their current form. The only Protoss who is close to 50/50 against Soulkey is Bisu. The only scenario that puts Soulkeys 3 peat at risk is the ZvZ finals. Also it's not like the results today have changed anything. Had Rush advanced to the finals he would have lost to Soulkey anyway. He effectively already won the SSL after beating Light. | ||
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Simplistik
2165 Posts
I feel like people aren't thinking enough about variance here. | ||
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cheesehuehue
Vatican City State90 Posts
On October 15 2024 02:13 Simplistik wrote: I personally don't think the odds are as one-sided as many people think. Even if we give SK phenomenal odds, like 80% in the semi and the final (which I think is too high), he's still less than 2/3 to win the title. Even at 90% that's >20% chance of someone else taking it. I feel like people aren't thinking enough about variance here. I don't think most people here take it for granted that SK will beat snow, let alone win the tournament. There's even a small but non-zero probability that Rain wins the tournament (and his second ASL/SSL title), and I find that really hilarious. | ||
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Simplistik
2165 Posts
30% SK 25% Snow 20% Rain 15% herO 10% Sharp You can adjust by a few points here or there, but I doubt anyone is sitting at even close to 50%. | ||
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Simplistik
2165 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States14001 Posts
On October 15 2024 02:51 Simplistik wrote: The odds for the remaining players might be something like: 30% SK 25% Snow 20% Rain 15% herO 10% Sharp You can adjust by a few points here or there, but I doubt anyone is sitting at even close to 50%. I honestly believe you aren't giving SK enough credit here solely because we're offline here. Aside from perhaps Rain, I see no current player who thrives in offline conditions to the extent SK does. Correct me if I'm wrong but Light had an absurd online record over SK in the months preceeding last week's match and despite a super strong map pool for terran it didn't matter. | ||
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Simplistik
2165 Posts
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cheesehuehue
Vatican City State90 Posts
On October 15 2024 03:27 Simplistik wrote: Bump him up to 40 if you want. He is the favourite, but I don't think he's more than 65% against the remaining players in the field, and definitely less against herO. I give SK 55-60% chance against Snow, and 50-55% against hero, but he is easily at 70-80% chance against Sharp, and 80-90% against Rain in a bo7. So I also think that his probability of winning the tournament is somewhere between 30 and 40% (factoring in that the main potential obstacle is Hero, but it is not a given that Hero will make it to the finals.) | ||
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Lazyer
United States395 Posts
 I could be down for a legend this fall... | ||
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ShowTheLights
Korea (South)1717 Posts
are you all going to just make excuses that Rush played bad now? Rain is a god when he cares 4-0'd the best Terran out there (and no its not freaking Light) This is Rain's season This ONLY way Rain loses is if he gets Hydra bust'd 4 times next round vs Hero | ||
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TornadoSteve
1124 Posts
On October 15 2024 02:51 Simplistik wrote: The odds for the remaining players might be something like: 30% SK 25% Snow 20% Rain 15% herO 10% Sharp You can adjust by a few points here or there, but I doubt anyone is sitting at even close to 50%. My personal % Sk 32% SnOw 20% (past offline results, PvsP Rain win%, etc. explain this) Rain 14% hero 23% Sharp 11% | ||
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Turbovolver
Australia2447 Posts
On October 15 2024 00:46 BulgarianToss wrote: Ultimately Rain had to have superb unit control No. Not in game 2. In the others, sure, he's good at the small-scale stuff. His macro is just disgusting, though, and he gets this "BO luck" so consistently, it seems, that even a hater like me has to admit his build choice is strong. | ||
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HOLYBATS
Turkey820 Posts
On October 15 2024 12:10 Turbovolver wrote: No. Not in game 2. In the others, sure, he's good at the small-scale stuff. His macro is just disgusting, though, and he gets this "BO luck" so consistently, it seems, that even a hater like me has to admit his build choice is strong. BO luck is not enough to win games at high level. At first game he defended bunker rush really well. | ||
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Turbovolver
Australia2447 Posts
On October 15 2024 13:05 HOLYBATS wrote: BO luck is not enough to win games at high level. At first game he defended bunker rush really well. Sounds like you're agreeing with me? I specifically said in the post his small-scale micro is strong. Really, as far as I can judge basically everything about Rain is strong except for his larger-scale PvT engagements, but he can still often win PvT games that go late anyway simply on the back of rapidly taking huge swaths of the map and macroing like a beast. I wouldn't blame game 2 just on "unscouted 12 nexus", Rain really did play well there by keeping really active with the drops and never letting macro slip. His shuttle/reaver usage against the army was kind of just bad, though, certainly at least compared to the rest of his level of play. At no point did he take a decisive gateway engagement and crush the T army, even at moments during the series where by supply count he absolutely should have been able to. And this has been a long-standing trend, hell maybe to some extent it's the price of macroing as hard as he does. And now that Arbiters are less in vogue he's moved away from just mindlessly throwing recall after misguided recall at the T and re-macroing as a strategy, so his PvT might even have levelled up :D | ||
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TMNT
3296 Posts
At no point did he take a decisive gateway engagement and crush the T army, even at moments during the series where by supply count he absolutely should have been able to Don't think there was any moment in that game that was possible for such engagement. In fact taking that engagement would be suicide. Did you not see the tank count? When Terrans go 5 Fact expand then camp in their quadrant until max, especially on Radeon, there simply is no bust timing for Protoss with just Gateway army. | ||
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Turbovolver
Australia2447 Posts
On October 15 2024 14:14 TMNT wrote: Don't think there was any moment in that game that was possible for such engagement. In fact taking that engagement would be suicide. Did you not see the tank count? When Terrans go 5 Fact expand then camp in their quadrant until max, especially on Radeon, there simply is no bust timing for Protoss with just Gateway army. I specifically said "in the series" there because it wasn't that game. It was the Minstrel game where Rain was up like 80 supply and suddenly decided to start going Carriers because he didn't trust himself to close it out, or something. He has so many dragoons but instead he sends in two very poorly controlled shuttles to suicide, separate from his army, before Rush attacks into him and goes "oh that's how much you have?" and gg's out. It was kind of funny, and I think shows my point about Rain's PvT. And yeah, maybe someone would come back and say Rain was just playing defensive because he knew he had more bases and was going to win with Carriers anyway, but both that shuttle attack and some attack(s) in top left of the Radeon game where Rain was just trickling in units with zero/poor micro doing minimal damage, arrgh. It's just sloppy. It's a frustrating style to watch but he gets results anyway on the back of his macro, and that combined with his strong early games in the matchup (it's not just this series vs Rush where he has had a bunch of free wins in tournament play) means he gets way more credit in PvT than I think he deserves. Especially compared to how clean his other two matchups look. Or maybe this is just what premiere PvT looks like, just go back to 1a2a3a and make sure you hit your cycles. Haha maybe, I'm certainly no expert :D | ||
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Vasoline73
United States8082 Posts
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