EPT
[ASL12] Ro16 Group D - Page 2
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Recommended Games + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler [Rush vs BarrackS] + If you have time + Show Spoiler [beast vs Soulkey] + one-sided. + Show Spoiler [Winners Game] + + Show Spoiler [Set 1] + when big brain movement fails + Show Spoiler [Set 2] + class game from both sides. + Show Spoiler [Set 3] + more like game 1 sadly + Show Spoiler [Losers Game] + + Show Spoiler [Set 1] + pretty much how almost every game on this map has gone, awful map, don't recommend + Show Spoiler [Set 2] + if you have time + Show Spoiler [Set 3] + skip + Show Spoiler [Final Game] + + Show Spoiler [Set 1] + Its been a while since we've seen a game with this playstyle in the matchup, still fairly onesided + Show Spoiler [Set 2] + watch if you have time + Show Spoiler [Set 3] + nope | ||
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bovienchien
Vietnam1152 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES51104 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES51104 Posts
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M2
Bulgaria4168 Posts
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Kaal
Djibouti2570 Posts
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HOLYBATS
Turkey802 Posts
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4267 Posts
go, go Mini ! | ||
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prosatan
Romania8977 Posts
On October 06 2021 00:51 M3t4PhYzX wrote: really good bracket draw, actually.. hopefully we will see some interesting play-off series. go, go Mini ! Saw the bracket draw right now Best was laughing a lot when he saw the zvz between SK and Zero | ||
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prosatan
Romania8977 Posts
Royal vs Mini Soma vs Rush Light vs Hero | ||
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Lazyer
United States388 Posts
Ro8 is gonna be great though! Should be good games in for the post-Flash era. | ||
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TornadoSteve
1117 Posts
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TornadoSteve
1117 Posts
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ToT)MidiaN(
England2183 Posts
For anyone interested I created a spreadsheet compiling the win rates of each remaining player in RO8 against every other remaining player taken from sponbbang, filtered only for 2021 games, as well as a head to head tab for the remaining 4 matchups with their head to head stats. I also created a little probability table showing the chance player A wins the best of 5 given the odds of player A and player B winning a single game based on the sponbbang win rate. ASL stats spreadsheet Obviously don't click if you don't want the remaining 8 players spoiled. | ||
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HOLYBATS
Turkey802 Posts
On October 07 2021 01:14 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: Long time no see teamliquid. For anyone interested I created a spreadsheet compiling the win rates of each remaining player in RO8 against every other remaining player taken from sponbbang, filtered only for 2021 games, as well as a head to head tab for the remaining 4 matchups with their head to head stats. I also created a little probability table showing the chance player A wins the best of 5 given the odds of player A and player B winning a single game based on the sponbbang win rate. ASL stats spreadsheet Obviously don't click if you don't want the remaining 8 players spoiled. Great work. Maps are big factor. Assuming first 4 matches will be on Ascension,Eclipse,Good Night,Largo a simulation would be interesting. | ||
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psyCrowe
Scotland197 Posts
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ToT)MidiaN(
England2183 Posts
 Soulkey is probably the best ZvT and ZvP player in the world at the moment, but really lacks in ZvZ. He has a pretty miserable record vs ZerO, soma and Larva in ZvZ in the past 2 years. Light is a very big favourite indeed, Mini is a sizeable favourite and Rush/soma is, on paper, the closest match and is near enough a coinflip.Indeed maps do play a big part, but unfortunately if you go into sponbbang and start to filter for specific maps between two individual players you end up with miniscule sample sizes, even over the whole calendar year, so they become quite meaningless. You can check out race vs race statistics on each map and combine that info with the head to head stats to make some more educated guesses on who may win, but it is more work. Obviously maps play less of a factor in mirror matchups too. | ||
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TornadoSteve
1117 Posts
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ToT)MidiaN(
England2183 Posts
I think hero is simply outmatched against too many of the opponents to be a serious threat to win the whole thing personally. He has the worst winrate out of the 8 on average when matched against the rest of the remaining players. I'll be very impressed and surprised if he can make it past Light, but I do anticipate good games and hero to maybe take 1 or 2 in the series. | ||
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angry_maia
331 Posts
Ro8: Zero > Soulkey: </3, bad draw for SK Mini > Sorry: not confident in this one. I thikn Sorry might even have straight up better play, but I think Mini can snag a couple crucial wins with early game shenanigans Rush > Soma: stats say razor close here, but I trust Rush a bit more right now. Light > Hero: light for the love of god please perform to your level as the best overall player on earth right now. Ro4: Mini > Queen: i think we get a repeat performance of last season. Mini's lately shown a bit more of his mid/late game pvz which are pretty decent. Mini also did well in the recent bo9 they had, and only gets better with build prep. Rush > Light: I think Rush has genuinely better TvT Finals: Rush > Mini. I don't think clever build orders are going to cut it against rush who is a significantly better macro PvT player imo. I know the stats are slightly mini favored, but I think rush will be ready for minis zealots and reavers. Overall: I think this was almost the optimal bracket for mini, who i feel is over-performing in this situation. If soulkey can beat Queen though, I think he wins the tournament (but I don't think he will beat queen :'( ). I think the tournament is also going to be decided by Light vs Rush. The winner there wins it all. | ||
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Zealgoon
China187 Posts
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