[OSL] Ever 2009 OSL - Ro16 - Day 6 - Page 44

I'd like to note why I believe Flash is the favorite -- aside from my horrible bias.

Flash and Jaedong have met in series play 4 times. Two Bo3s, Two Bo5s.

Flash won both Bo3s, Jaedong won both Bo5s.

They go back and forth in Bo1s with Jaedong having a lead. They've also both All killed each other's team.

Flash is, currently, playing the best TvZ that's ever been played. Jaedong is playing amazing ZvT, too -- I mean only dropping games to Hwasin and Fantasy.

But here's what's amazing about Flash's TvZ.

Flash hasn't lost a TvZ since July (with exception to the savior all stars game and, frankly, I think it's the better part of discretion to disclude that one). That is half a year without losing a single TvZ.

Forgive me, Jaedong fans, for saying this, but Flash is the favorite here (depending on maps, not sure how the balance is there). A slight one, but Flash is MUCH better than Hwasin and Fantasy right now, and both of them put Jaedong on the ropes.

natturner

342 Posts

December 11 2009 14:37 GMT

#865

yes, fantasy is out

Avidkeystamper

United States8552 Posts

December 11 2009 14:38 GMT

#866

Yeah, if Flash cheese, he's got a pretty good shot against Jaedong.

On_Slaught

United States12190 Posts

December 11 2009 14:38 GMT

#867

This isn't the first time JD has been underrated.

All you crazy KT fans better hope Flash isn't stupid enough to undervalue how great JD is or this will be a very fast 2-0 for JD.

Plexa

Aotearoa39261 Posts

December 11 2009 14:39 GMT

#868

Flash > Jaedong
Pure > Calm
Movie < Zero
Stork > Shine

Flash > Pure
Stork > Zero

Flash > Stork finals

Black Gun

Germany4482 Posts

December 11 2009 14:41 GMT

#869

i agree, flash is the slight favorite imho. he is just on a monster roll right now.....
he just broke 2370 elo, 2300 vZ elo and is maybe 2 wins away from breaking 70% career winrate. actually, if jd wasnt such a beast in boX series, he´d be the vast underdog here. taking jds insane mental strength into consideration, he arrives at about 45% chance to win this imho.

TwoToneTerran

United States8841 Posts

December 11 2009 14:41 GMT

#870

On December 11 2009 23:38 Avidkeystamper wrote:
Yeah, if Flash cheese, he's got a pretty good shot against Jaedong.

Wasn't it Jaedong who rushed most of the games in those Bo3s?

Not really cheese but a lot of 9/overpool speed.

On December 11 2009 23:41 Black Gun wrote:
i agree, flash is the slight favorite imho. he is just on a monster roll right now.....
he just broke 2370 elo, 2300 vZ elo and is maybe 2 wins away from breaking 70% career winrate. actually, if jd wasnt such a beast in boX series, he´d be the vast underdog here. taking jds insane mental strength into consideration, he arrives at about 45% chance to win this imho.

Flash needs .75% to break a 70% career winrate, and he gets about .08% every win, so he needs about NINE wins to break 70%.

FireGuyX

United States1712 Posts

December 11 2009 14:42 GMT

#871

I can't believe Zero is the favorite against Movie. Movie's micro against zerg is S-Class and he comes up with excellent builds against zergs. And unlike Pure, Movie is also very good at harassing zergs. The only problem with Movie is that's he's sometimes inconsistent or makes a blunder that will cost him the game. But he's improving after every season and when he's focused for a particular matchup, he will most likely beat them (see Movie vs Hero OSL round of 36).

Avidkeystamper

United States8552 Posts

December 11 2009 14:45 GMT

#872

In KeSPA sanctioned games, do you know how long ZerO's recently broken ZvP streak was?
+ Show Spoiler +

Still underrated.

On December 11 2009 23:41 TwoToneTerran wrote:

Show nested quote +

Wasn't it Jaedong who rushed most of the games in those Bo3s?

Not really cheese but a lot of 9/overpool speed.

Show nested quote +

Flash needs .75% to break a 70% career winrate, and he gets about .08% every win, so he needs about NINE wins to break 70%.

2 cheese : 1 iirc
And I'm referring to Fantasy and Hwasin cheesing him. Not even a contest imo. =]

Avidkeystamper

United States8552 Posts

December 11 2009 14:46 GMT

#873

oops double

CTStalker

Canada9720 Posts

December 11 2009 14:48 GMT

#874

thanks for the brackets hoon. i think pure and movie will both advance, their pvz has both been on fire lately

TwoToneTerran

United States8841 Posts

December 11 2009 14:49 GMT

#875

On December 11 2009 23:45 Avidkeystamper wrote:
In KeSPA sanctioned games, do you know how long ZerO's recently broken ZvP streak was?
+ Show Spoiler +

Still underrated.

Show nested quote +

2 cheese : 1 iirc
And I'm referring to Fantasy and Hwasin cheesing him. Not even a contest imo. =]

Well Fantasy took 2 straight up games vs Jaedong recently, too. Game 1 in OSL semifinal and first game of PL Grand Finals. POINITIVELY, Flash and Jaedong are in another league, but Flash has the Bo3 history and the current hotness.

Jaedong is the only zerg I truly believe isn't an underdog vs the man, but when the LB comes around, I'm voting Flash without a second thought.

Womwomwom

5930 Posts

December 11 2009 14:50 GMT

#876

On December 11 2009 23:27 Ilikestarcraft wrote:
wow just when everyone started talks of flash's tvz is still untested vs the top he gets two bo3 vs the 2 of the best zvters ever.

Well if he's going to prove his TvZ is the shit, it may as well be now with KT actually fucking backing him up for once. No shame if he loses against Jaedong and Zero though since both guys are ballers. I think he's a favourite over Zero but I don't think he's a favourite over Jaedong, who no doubt will practice like mad to prepare for the Little Monster. And if someone can be expected to perform when needed, its Jaedong.

Kind of hope Flash beats them both 2-0 to simply silence the naysayers saying his streak is not legit because he's beating scrubs into the ground.

On December 11 2009 23:45 Avidkeystamper wrote:
In KeSPA sanctioned games, do you know how long ZerO's recently broken ZvP streak was?
+ Show Spoiler +

Still underrated.

Seriously, Zero is the shit when it comes to ZvP. Movie is going to struggle against this guy if he hasn't got something awesome prepared.

Avidkeystamper

United States8552 Posts

December 11 2009 14:51 GMT

#877

On December 11 2009 23:49 TwoToneTerran wrote:

Show nested quote +

Free LB points fo' me.

Jaksiel

United States4130 Posts

December 11 2009 14:53 GMT

#878

On December 11 2009 23:42 FireGuyX wrote:
I can't believe Zero is the favorite against Movie. Movie's micro against zerg is S-Class and he comes up with excellent builds against zergs. And unlike Pure, Movie is also very good at harassing zergs. The only problem with Movie is that's he's sometimes inconsistent or makes a blunder that will cost him the game. But he's improving after every season and when he's focused for a particular matchup, he will most likely beat them (see Movie vs Hero OSL round of 36).

Just because you think Movie can beat Zero doesn't mean Zero isn't the favorite. Zero is probably the best ZvPer at the moment and was on a long ZvP winning streak before losing to Pure.

FireGuyX

United States1712 Posts

December 11 2009 14:54 GMT

#879

On December 11 2009 23:53 Jaksiel wrote:

Show nested quote +

Just because you think Movie can beat Zero doesn't mean Zero isn't the favorite. Zero is probably the best ZvPer at the moment and was on a long ZvP winning streak before losing to Pure.

Well I didn't mean it that way, I can see why Zero is the favorite despite what I said, and the best ZvP at the moment? Better than Jaedong? None the less Movie vs Zero will be an excellent match and Zero will learn first hand why Movie isn't Pure.