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Since he isn't making any turrets and since he's cutting a few SCV's along the way (although not many), I'd delay the third. I'd have to watch again, but I feel like you should be able to pump drones just a teensy bit harder also. Getting the den before spire finishes so that you can research lurker upgrade with your first 200 gas after your 9 muta also seems like a really good idea to me.
Ideally you'll be able to get a little better vision of his base somehow and maybe poke around a little at his front to figure out what he's doing. I know there's that window where it's really hard to see what the Terran is doing (I have trouble with this as well when I play ZvT, which is why I favor a much more aggressive style despite being more of a defensive macro player by nature) but ideally you don't want to be waiting until he's already pushed out and then going "oh, crap, that's a pretty big m&m ball." If that does happen, you need to be aware of what's going on at his main/nat. His push was arriving outside your base right at the moment your mutas were popping out and there was no way to clear it with ling/muta. You were forced to sunken up in all 3 games. So you need to use that to your advantage. Like I said you need to get behind him, cut off reinforcements, force him to spend money on turrets and while this is happening you might not need such a large army of lings. Even if you canceled your third initially, the drone should still be somewhere outside your base area, you need to either sneak a couple lurks to him or else move him to a base less likely to be scanned.
Also, if I'm remembering right, in the first game I think it was you actually did manage to produce enough ling/muta that with proper surround you probably could have killed him, but instead you fought him while he was making his way up the ramp to your third and you couldn't swarm him. You'd have been better off sacrificing that base and then swarming him as he tried to leave (especially since that game he cut a lot of SCVs).
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Getting my den quicker or delaying my third might be good responses to this style of play you are telling me to make adjustments based on what he is doing at a time in the game when I will never have that information.
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It's difficult to get information but not impossible. Poke around at his front a little more with lings and if you can you may wish to try a ling run-bye. Also it's important to take note of his turret timing because that will tell you a lot. You may wish to move around the OL you get at the entrance to his base to try to see as much as you can (obviously be careful -_-). Don't take the attitude that it's impossible to adjust or to do better. If you really feel that way then give up trying to play a defensive macro oriented game of SC.
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I never make more than 4 lings before mutas; I can suicide a ling but if he hides his marine count I'm never going to know about it until he moves out.
I would be extremely surprised if it was just the case that if he does this style of play and I don't realize it until he moves out he should just win every single game because I am fucked. I cannot depend on knowing exactly what he is doing before he moves out and as such I am looking for advice on how to adjust my play after that point.
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If his build is catching you by surprise every time then you are going to lose (almost) every time. What you're asking for is, "How can I make a come back when I'm 90% certainly fucked?" Obviously there is no foolproof scouting technique, but if you don't find a way to get a sense for his marine count and if you don't find a way to get a better sense for when he starts his turrets then you simply are not going to overcome this. Period.
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This was my favorite style to play when I was still playing. I'm not sure if people are still using the flash/forgg opener but you don't have marine range when you first move out. So your first round of mutas can do more damage then you think (well limited by +1 but range is pretty darn big).
The way to beat this is by winning the micro battle in the center. Fight marines vs mutas until you can get enough lings for a surround all the while teching to lurkers. If he gets overeager and moves too far out in the map, cut reinforcements. This strategy requires terran to constantly reinforce his center position or risk getting contained by upcoming lurkers. Streams of units will come out of his base periodically and you should try your best to catch them.
Watch for +1 on the marines with a scouting zergling or overlord because when it finishes, terran should be moving out. Prep with ling overproduction. You can also gas steal even if you see 1 barracks. Again, I'm not sure if the same build order is used, but terran needs to gets gas early to start up his +1 attack. If gas is somewhat exposed, you can peak in and see if he is mining. Again going back to the build I took from Flash, you need to cut gas after your first 100 to get up proper infrastructure without cutting scvs. Then later you resume gas for your stim, range, and medics.
Lastly is a seemingly unnecessary bunker. If you aren't showing pressure and he bunkers, that may indicate 4 rax. This build stays on 1 barracks longer then normal (rax -> cc -> gas -> ebay ->2nd rax) as opposed to the standard (rax -> cc - >2nd rax) so he is vulnerable to ling busts. Not very useful on iccup as everyone is wary of lings busts, but is a useful note.
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watched a bit of the first replay, I'll keep adding on when I get to the rest.
I'm a D terran, so it is possible that I'm talking nonsense.
With mutas and lings, and proper micro, you should be able to delay the m&m forces without delaying your third (your mutas were flying over the marines' heads. at that point, you're incredibly behind in the game. luckily he wasn't focusing his attack on a single muta, or microing in general). Just a word of advice, if the terran is roaming around the map like a madman with huge m&m forces, you want those lurkers to pop at your expansion. If you delay the terran enough, you should be able to form lurker eggs at the ramp (micro with mutas at the top of the ramp too), if not have lurkers buried there already.
if you have watched the replay, you'll see that the terran was not prepared for muta harass at his base when your mutas popped. if you go in with mutas when his m&m forces are out on the field, he has two choices.
1) go for an attack at your natural
2) come back to defend his base
this is why scouting is crucial and as a zerg, you NEED to have map control. send a few zerglings here and there to know what's coming. also, i was disturbed by the fact that you didn't have an overlord watching the opponent's nat. you need that overlord to prepare yourself to add sunkens, etc.
if the terran is going for an attack at your natural, put down 4~5 sunkens and backstab his units with zerglings. if needed, pull drones. remember that terran's busy moving scv's, building turrets with your mutas at his base. if he masses turrets at his natural, destroy his tech. not getting that +1 upgrade will hurt him a lot.
most of what I said has been said already...lol
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EPT
