Movie

Reasoning - Although I don't know a ton about force, amateurs typically don't do so hot against the ex-pros. ZerO should take it, and if it's Bo3 in the first match then ZerO will take it for sure. ZvZ has a little volatility though so upsets are possible, if unlikely. Movie should beat Ssak easily, given Ssak's generally weak form as of late, though he did play a respectable series against Bisu, its just one series and movie is one of the strongest SOSPA tosses and have very good PvT.

ZerO will then face movie, and that one is hard to call. I'm giving the edge to ZerO, but they just played a very tight serious in LSSponLeague and movie has some of the best PvZ in the scene. Definitely one that could go either way.

Ssak will stomp force.

So then either Zero or movie faces Ssak, and I don't really see either losing again. Movie is strong and ZerO has just cut through both PianO and Mind with relative ease (both high 70% TvZ WR) and has looked fantastic on stream

Group B:

Killer and

PianO

Reasoning - This is the tough group to call, mainly because of the situations that can arise. Killer is strong, but PianO is arguably the best TvZer right now along with Mind. 77% WR is nothing to sneeze at, and killer has looked vulnerable. Killer does however, have a way of showing up in important matches though. Edge still goes PianO, but this is a coin toss.

Mini beats Firebathero easy, firebathero hasn't been streaming and even if he has been active on fish as he claims he was a generally mediocre terran with especially weak TvP during his pro BW career. Something needs to have changed drastically for FBH to have a chance vs Mini...and I doubt that is going to happen. Maybe 2 fact could cause some sort of upset.

Now we get into the situation fun with Mini playing either PianO or Killer. In case of situation A, Mini is a respectable toss, and while PianO has been generally strong he has been vulnerable in PvT when his volatile style fails him. I'm inclined to favor PianO, but a win by Mini is very possible.

The other situation is Mini v Killer, and in this case I'd say a win by Mini is an upset. Whoever plays FBH in losers match will win.

It gets tricky then because of who plays and you end up with some sort of: Mini=PianO>=Killer>>Mini that makes the whole group a tough call. I'm still giving the nod to Killer and PianO, but the right combinations (namely PianO > Killer) could see Mini out of this group.

[sc1f]eonzerg

Belgium7022 Posts

December 23 2014 22:13 GMT

#50

hmm L_Master im not really sure Piano is the best TvZ.actually he is not that consistent in the matchup,he drops games pretty often vs random zergs :D .in the other side i cant help but killer zvt was very very strong,only Sea could do some force vs him,and the random drop vs mong in the last SSL

Faraday

United States553 Posts

December 23 2014 22:17 GMT

#51

Is this real life? Is bw really back? .... I cannot believe it. It's like I'm young again...

Adept

United States472 Posts

December 23 2014 22:17 GMT

#52

This should be incredible!! Might even be able to watch live :D

L_Master

United States8017 Posts

December 23 2014 22:24 GMT

#53

Group C:

Snow and

Last

Reasoning - Snow is the big boy of this group, and with especially strong PvT and two terrans, one of whom (barring a special prepared build) is almost cannon fodder. With Snow getting to start against terran getting out is about as assured as you can get until the games are in the books.

Last should beat Kwanro easy, as my understanding is that our favorite aggro zerg has been injured and almost wasn't even going to participate in SSL, and this seems supported by his lack of appearance on a certain TL sidebar. Admittedly, Kwanro's aggressive style takes less practice to get in form than the meticulous macro play of someone like FlaSh, but I'd be pretty surprised if inactive Kwanro can beat Last.

Even if he does, he'll have to do it a second time as Last will certainly overcome Shinee. Amateur terrans do not fare well at all against progamers in TvT.

2 wins by Kwanro is far too much to ask against Last, which means he will be joining Snow in the Ro16.

Group D:

Mong and

Hyuk

Reasoning - Mirabel picked Sea.KH, but I don't see that happening, even if we work on the assumption protoss Sea is in form (and he may well not be). Mong has strong TvP as a general rule, and has solid tournament credentials. I would be suprised if PSea can beat him. Maybe a prepared build, but I expect Mong has it.

Hyuk, mediocre as he was in ZvT will still beat Tossgirl without difficulty. She just isn't at the same level as the rest of these guys.

Mong will, needless to say, crush Hyuk, given his weakness ZvT in pro BW and recent return. Even if Mong lost to PSea, he would need to lose again to Sea at some point to be eliminated, and I definitely don't see a 2:0 for PSea incoming.

This means Hyuk will return to face PSea. Mirabel must expect PSea to win this match, but that isn't happening. PSea had what could be at best describe as mediocre PvZ, whereas Hyuk was actually a very strong ZvPer from pro BW days. Asking a potentially rusty amateur to dismantle a very strong ZvPer in tosses hardest MU is a big ask, and one I quite frankly don't see happening.

L_Master

United States8017 Posts

December 23 2014 22:33 GMT

#54

On December 24 2014 07:13 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
hmm L_Master im not really sure Piano is the best TvZ.actually he is not that consistent in the matchup,he drops games pretty often vs random zergs :D .in the other side i cant help but killer zvt was very very strong,only Sea could do some force vs him,and the random drop vs mong in the last SSL

Admittedly I haven't been watching PianO super close on stream but from the games I've watched he gets in trouble there in part due to his all over the map harass style. Sometimes he overextends with that and ends up behind from doing no damage and losing plenty in the process, or via a major error with his main army. Perhaps its a case of being too cocky on stream and this might be supported to some extent by his record as some of his only losses TvZ come to guys like beast, cola, larva and hero. None of whom are known for uh....good ZvT

He seems to do very well against good zergs though, as he has a 4-2 record against Killer, a 10-0 record against Modesty, and a 6-5 record against ZerO (who has come on VERY strong vs terrans recently)

The only questionable spot for PianO recently was his 2-3 loss to larva of all people, I'll have to go back and watch the games to see if he got outplayed, or suffered for being too cocky/sloppy.

chaosTheory_14cc

Canada1270 Posts

December 23 2014 22:48 GMT

#55

Groups A/B predictions right on the money. Great writeup!

EleanorRIgby

Canada3923 Posts

December 23 2014 22:53 GMT

#56

piano/larva/jangbi are gonna gonna be at the top, this is gonna be awesome

419

Russian Federation3631 Posts

December 23 2014 22:59 GMT

#57

aww yiss

[sc1f]eonzerg

Belgium7022 Posts

December 23 2014 23:10 GMT

#58

kwanro will pass!

TelecoM

United States10847 Posts

December 23 2014 23:33 GMT

#59

On December 24 2014 07:17 Faraday wrote:
Is this real life? Is bw really back? .... I cannot believe it. It's like I'm young again...

Thats what it is, BW makes you feel young, SC2 makes me feel old....Thats why I love BW so much!!

Preserve the YOUTH!!

zeo

Serbia6343 Posts

December 23 2014 23:34 GMT

#60

On December 24 2014 08:10 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
~~kwanro~~Lings will pass!

I am really contemplating waking up at 4am to watch this. Gonna be so hard to not get spoiled if I leave it till 2pm :/

edit: I still remember everything about the day of the 'black-out' MSL final between Jaedong and Flash, what I ate and everything. Now that I think about it I remember every final since late 2008 when I discovered BW... even the ZvZ's

Its crazy just how good it all was. No rose-tinted sunglasses needed.

NO HYPE LIKE BW HYPE!