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Aphelion
United States2720 Posts
On October 26 2009 09:04 ploy wrote: Uh no thats not right. Order does not matter in this situation. Banzu is right - 50% of the matchups you can watch are mirrors, so it's to be expected that about 50% of the matchups that you see are mirrors. Oh god, this is just bad. | ||
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shurgen
350 Posts
ALso, I'm not totally sure, but it may be that because its the beginning of the season, optimal strategies and whatnot have not been made on each of the maps, so they are just sending out what at first glance appears to be the best race on w.e map.. i'm not 100% sure but i think the # of mirrors could possibly go down on some of the maps as time goes on | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17873 Posts
Hot_Bid has already nailed the OP dillema but I guess that most people in this thread didn't bother to read it so I'm going to put this in front of your faces once again: On October 26 2009 09:37 Hot_Bid wrote: Maps are almost never balanced through all three non mirror matches, PvT TvZ PvZ. They are usually slanted toward two races or one race. All teams know this, so obviously there will be far more mirror matches because the teams know to send a Z on outsider and tornado, a T on match point, etc. /thread | ||
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Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
On October 26 2009 20:34 sovietico wrote: I think this logic is ok if we have 33% protosses 33% terrans and 33% zergs. Wich is not the case, we should see the number of terran protoss and zerg players to calculate in an apropiate way the "ideal" number of mirror matchups that should be. For ex: if there are 98 terrans 1 protoss and 1 zerg in the rosters of the PL teams, near 99% of the games will be mirrors and not 33%. at least thats what i think :S The problem with your logic is that teams must field at the very least 1 player of each race in the first 4 sets. Once you fulfill the requirement of having 1 player of each race, you have one more slot to add a player, as well as a possible fifth slot if the match goes to ace. If coaches were indifferent whom to fill up their lineups slots with (Protoss, Terran or Zerg players) AND all maps gave roughly the same winrate across all matchups, you could expect to see 33% mirror matchups. If, given the relative power of the races and the map pool, coaches tend to favor some races more than others (if you noticed, there were significantly more ZvZ and TvT mirrors than PvP) and/or tend to favor some races for some maps, then you can expect a higher than 33% mirror matchup rate. And to the people who say there are 6 matchups and therefore mirror matchup rate should be 50%: You fail. The error of your ways is this: Yes, there are 6 matchups. However, some matchups are more likely to happen than others: Take, for example, the ZvZ matchup. In order for it to occur, Player 1 must choose zerg (33% chance) AND Player 2 must choose zerg (33% chance). This gives you an 11% chance of a ZvZ matchup assuming races are chosen randomly. Now, take PvT. In order for it to occur, Player 1 must choose protoss (33% chance) AND Player 2 must choose terran (33% chance), OR Player 1 must choose terran (33% chance) AND Player 2 must choose protoss (33% chance). There's an 11% chance you'll get PvT, and another 11% chance you'll get TvP. If you count it as the same matchup, it adds up to 22% chance. Do this exercise for all 6 matchups and you'll get 33% chance of mirror and 66% chance of non-mirror. | ||
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FirstBorn
Romania3955 Posts
Thread should be closed imo. | ||
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Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
On October 26 2009 21:38 FirstBorn wrote: All the fancy probability discussed in this thread isn't accurate because maps aren't prefectly balanced. As Hot_Bid already said, most teams will choose to send the race that does better on a certain map. Thread should be closed imo. Some of the fancy probability in this thread is accurate given some assumptions. Whether or not those assumptions are accurate or not will impact those probabilities. Refer to my post above for more details. | ||
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okum
France5779 Posts
On October 26 2009 21:38 FirstBorn wrote: Isn't that EXACTLY the problem the OP points at? If maps were perfectly balanced, we'd have 1/3 mirrors. We aren't having 1/3 mirrors, so it seems that the maps aren't perfectly balanced.All the fancy probability discussed in this thread isn't accurate because maps aren't prefectly balanced. As Hot_Bid already said, most teams will choose to send the race that does better on a certain map. | ||
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JohannesH
Finland1364 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17873 Posts
On October 26 2009 22:10 okum wrote: Isn't that EXACTLY the problem the OP points at? If maps were perfectly balanced, we'd have 1/3 mirrors. We aren't having 1/3 mirrors, so it seems that the maps aren't perfectly balanced. Have PL maps EVER been perfectly balanced? This is the real question and the answer might be disappointing for some... | ||
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Kaniol
Poland5551 Posts
On October 26 2009 13:47 Wilko wrote: Shouldn't mirrors also be counted twice? Like: T1 vs T2 T2 vs T1 Z1 vs Z2 Z2 vs Z1 P1 vs P2 P2 vs P1 No. Statistically it's the same event. Player 1 picks T and Player 2 picks T. That's 1 event, not 2 events. But when we have tvz and zvt you have: 1. Player 1 picks T and Player 2 picks Z 2. Player 1 picks Z and player 2 picks T | ||
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ploy
United States416 Posts
HOW DOES ORDER MATTER WHEN YOU ARE OBSERVING A GAME? A ZvT is the same as a TvZ for the spectator. It is the same matchup, please explain the absurd logic in that when you are WATCHING a game, ZvT and TvZ are two different matchups? Fact: There are only six types of games you can watch: ZvT ZvP PvT ZvZ PvP TvT 3/6 or 50% mirrors. So you could expect to watch a mirror 50% of the time of a game selected at random. | ||
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QuakerOats
United States1024 Posts
On October 27 2009 10:21 ploy wrote: Talk about getting mobbed by a bunch of idiots. HOW DOES ORDER MATTER WHEN YOU ARE OBSERVING A GAME? A ZvT is the same as a TvZ for the spectator. It is the same matchup, please explain the absurd logic in that when you are WATCHING a game, ZvT and TvZ are two different matchups? Fact: There are only six types of games you can watch: ZvT ZvP PvT ZvZ PvP TvT 3/6 or 50% mirrors. So you could expect to watch a mirror 50% of the time of a game selected at random. Definitely trolling. But I'll bite anyway and show how dumb your argument is. Fact: There are only 3 outcomes if you flip two coins. 2 heads 1 heads 1 tails 2 tails Thus the chance of getting 2 heads is 33%. | ||
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Signet
United States1718 Posts
On October 27 2009 07:45 Kaniol wrote: No. Statistically it's the same event. Player 1 picks T and Player 2 picks T. That's 1 event, not 2 events. But when we have tvz and zvt you have: 1. Player 1 picks T and Player 2 picks Z 2. Player 1 picks Z and player 2 picks T Progamers don't pick races like that. Flash plays Terran and Terran only. Bisu plays Protoss and Protoss only. You're never going to have a situation where Flash picks Zerg and Bisu picks Terran, which would be different than Flash picking Terran while Bisu picks Zerg. Flash (T) vs Bisu (P) is the same thing as Bisu (P) vs Flash (T) | ||
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ploy
United States416 Posts
HH TT HT TH So the chance of getting 2 heads is 25%. However, the chance of getting HH or TT (which would represent any mirror matchup) is 50%. Please try again. | ||
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StRyKeR
United States1756 Posts
On October 27 2009 10:21 ploy wrote: Talk about getting mobbed by a bunch of idiots. HOW DOES ORDER MATTER WHEN YOU ARE OBSERVING A GAME? A ZvT is the same as a TvZ for the spectator. It is the same matchup, please explain the absurd logic in that when you are WATCHING a game, ZvT and TvZ are two different matchups? Fact: There are only six types of games you can watch: ZvT ZvP PvT ZvZ PvP TvT 3/6 or 50% mirrors. So you could expect to watch a mirror 50% of the time of a game selected at random. Agreed with QuakerOats. If this isn't a troll... Anyway, in case it isn't, you have to realize that if all those cases were equally likely, then yes, you could expect a mirror 50% of the time, but those cases aren't equally likely. Define a mirror as 1 head 1 tail. Then you can say you get a mirror "one-thirds of the time because there are only three possibilities HH, TT, HT". Yes, to the viewer, there's only three possibilities, 2 heads, 1 head and 1 tail, or 2 tails, but each case has a different probability of occurring. 1/4, 1/2, and 1/4 respectively. As you said, ZvT and TvZ are the same, right? So why should HT and TH be different? Both teams are "sending out" a player, H or T. If a "mirror" is one head, one tail, then your reasoning implies that there's a 1/3 chance of getting 1 H 1 T. Also, as noted by many others in this thread, given that one person has race X, if the map was balanced and the other team was indifferent as to which race it sent out, so each race has 33% chance of occurring, then clearly there's only one possible way to get a mirror, so the chance is 33%. | ||
TheYango
United States47024 Posts
On October 27 2009 10:32 ploy wrote: First off you can't even get the scenario right. There are 4 outcomes if you flip two coins: HH TT HT TH So the chance of getting 2 heads is 25%. However, the chance of getting HH or TT (which would represent any mirror matchup) is 50%. Please try again. So by your logic, HT and TH are different scenarios but TvZ and ZvT are the same? On October 27 2009 10:31 Signet wrote: Progamers don't pick races like that. Flash plays Terran and Terran only. Bisu plays Protoss and Protoss only. You're never going to have a situation where Flash picks Zerg and Bisu picks Terran, which would be different than Flash picking Terran while Bisu picks Zerg. Flash (T) vs Bisu (P) is the same thing as Bisu (P) vs Flash (T) Progamers don't pick races, but COACHES DO. Lets say Coach Park has Bisu, Fantasy, and Hyuk. Coach January has Stork, Firebathero, and Great. Bisu v Great is different from Stork v Hyuk, but Fantasy v Firebathero is the same either way you slice it. The possible matches you get then are: Bisu v Great Bisu v Stork Bisu v Firebathero Fantasy v Great Fantasy v Stork Fantasy v Firebathero Hyuk v Great Hyuk v Stork Hyuk v Firebathero 33% of those matches are mirrors. | ||
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haster27
Taiwan809 Posts
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Signet
United States1718 Posts
On October 27 2009 10:34 TheYango wrote: Progamers don't pick races, but COACHES DO. Lets say Coach Park has Bisu, Fantasy, and Hyuk. Coach January has Stork, Firebathero, and Great. Bisu v Great is different from Stork v Hyuk, but Fantasy v Firebathero is the same either way you slice it. This I agree with. The coaches are drawing from a limited pool of players. It's selection without replacement. That's why I said (on another page) that the 1/3 probability is an asymptotic limit. If each team had an infinite number of P/T/Z players, the theoretical probability of a mirror match would be 1/3. Since they don't, there is a "defect" which we have to calculate based on the rosters. (also taking into account the players which the coach is actually willing to send out) It also amplifies the effect of even one map being imbalanced. For example, when Battle Royal was in the map pool, both teams would usually send out a Z on that map. That means all of the other maps are more likely to get a T or a P sent out, even if they are balanced, because the teams have each already sent a Z already. | ||
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timmeh
Austria177 Posts
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TheYango
United States47024 Posts
On October 27 2009 10:52 timmeh wrote: Make them choose line-up order before revealing map order. Make map order random. That just turns proleague into more of a coin toss. Whereas right now coaches can pick and counterpick based on the expected opponent on a given map, having the map order be random could result in a situation where a coach neither made good picks for his players, nor did any of the players play better than their opponents--but simply the maps worked out in their favor. In professional play, it's desirable for such random factors to be eliminated. Personally, I'd rather watch a good mirror match, than a complete rape non-mirror that abuses map imbalance. | ||
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