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Aotearoa39261 Posts
Cheated from his 2nd MSL title
Throughout 2008 its difficult to argue against the fact that Jaedong has been the most consistent performer all year. And of course, thats for a very good reason - he's fucking good. So when Jaedong loses a final to a player only weeks prior was thought a scrub 0-3, you know theres something up. Furthermore, when arguably the best player in the world loses to a no-name MBC Hero gamer in the OSL prelims, once again you have to wonder what is going on here? With one of the most anticipated finals in a long time being played tonight - which will be the deciding factor; Maps or Skill?
Quite bluntly, the map pool this season has royally sucked for Zerg - especially against Terran. As the sole Zerg powerhouse for a long time now, Jaedong has had to deal with these imbalances with absolute precision control and insane macro. There is, however, always a breaking point so when you get a final with every single map favoring Terran heavily you know that you're going to have to work twice as hard as your opponent to win. ForGG didn't win the MSL, the maps did.
Set 1: Colosseum
This map is a rediculous 5-2 in TvZ with very good ZvT players (like Kwanro and Luxury) have lost games to Terrans. Jaedong accounts for one of the wins here, which he used an unorthodox strategy for, and the other was Savior bashing fantasy around. This map is quite clearly imbalanced against Zerg.
Set 2: Othello
Many people consider this map the most balanced map within the map pool, but hey, 52 TvTs and a TvZ record of 15-9 speaks for itself. At the highest level this map is a rhelm where Terran dominates, and will dominate most Zergs. Realistically, against a competent opponent like ForGG, there was nothing Jaedong could realistically do to win this set.
Set 3: Tiamat
This map is just a death sentence for any Zerg. The map was 4-0 in TvZ which is starting to verge on Arcadia territory. Once again, there was nothing that Jaedong could realistically do to stop ForGG here either. This map is just so bad for Zergs.
But wait, given a shitty map pool is suppose to be able to overcome it and win regardless a la savior in Shinhan S3 OSL. But this case just made things x10 harder for Jaedong. In the quarter finals Jaedong had to train extensively to beat Hwasin on the exact same map pool. He ended up going 3-1 (dropping the game on tiamat) but he must have practiced extensively with ForGG to train for the series and thus revealed all of his stylistic nuances to his future finals opponent. Indeed Jaedong in the quarters looked to playing a more desperate style than he was accustomed to, probably due to the terrible map pool. With ForGG prepared for everything that Jaedong could throw at him and the maps strongly in his favor - realistically Jaedong was trapped in a 0-3 ultimatum that he could not avoid.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/Jaedong/3.png) Jaedong is not impressed
Okay so Jaedong loses one big final thanks to crappy maps, no big deal he'll bounce back right! Not quite true. After being cheesed out of the OSL by Casy and Backho, Jaedong was reduced to the offline preliminaries and forced to requalify. Sadly, the maps once again had more influence on the outcome than anyone wanted. Yes han played well, but the imbalance on each of the maps amplified his skill and created an impossible task for Jaedong to overcome.
Set 1: Troy
Troy, as we all know, is a Protoss paradise. The only Zergs capable of mustering wins have been ones who have used cheesy (but ballsy) strategies to avoid the Protoss lategame, and sometimes even that isn't enough. The stats of 3-5 in favor of Protoss clearly show that this map is heavily P>Z. Hence against the solid play of han, Jaedong was helpless.
Set 2: Athena
Athena was Jaedong's redemption card, as the map is 2-0 in favor of Zerg over Protoss. He wated no time in schooling han and tieing up the scored 1-1. But even though Han's play was solid, on a map like Athena against a Zerg the calibre of Jaedong he had no chance at all - and that was proved very nicely by Jaedong.
Set 3: Blue Storm
Blue Storm's statistics are highly misleading. Since the switch over to Blue Storm 1.2 the map has had 6-14 stats in favor of Protoss. Thats a measly 30% winrate for Zergs. And well, as expected, the solid play of han took Jaedong to school on the map that defined his ZvP, all because of the imbalance on the map. And hey! as a result, Jaedong didn't make the OSL (along with numerous others like savior)
If it's not clear to you right now that the map pool is [i]heavily not-favoring Zergs then I don't know what else will convince you. The question simply has to be, why are these map pools so utterly terrible that even Jaedong, master of the swarm, can't beat a B team rookie on the maps from the pool?
With the current map trends this will never happen again
Perhaps we can trace this to OGN rather than MBC. If you take a look at all the winners of the OSL from Shinhan 3 onwards; 4/5 of the winners have been of Zerg origin. Even July mustered a win over only Protoss and Zerg opponents with the map pool (the stats for ZvP are actually slightly Zerg favored). But as Zerg are traditionally weak in the OSL and Protoss should be winning the OSL in the fall to perpetuate the legend of the fall, map pools are adjusted to achieve the desired outcome. Sadly, Jaedong has ruined OGN's plot by showing that timing rushes can overcome any imbalance - this was later reiterated by July.
EVER 07 was suppose to be Bisu's victory, but he got sick and lost to Stork. Even so, OGN would not be unhappy with Stork winning the OSL - after all atleast he was a protoss. With a map pool featuring Persona, Fantasy II and Katrina the map balance suggested that Stork should waltz home with the win. However, the imbalance was not great enough to stop Jaedong - and with an e han timing rush he destroyed Stork's morale on his "sure win" map (katrina) and proceeded to gut him on Blue Storm/Fantasy. Seeing that their plot had failed, an even less Zerg friendly map pool was implemented by adding Troy to the mix. Sure enough, Jaedong ran into a Terran and with a little map imbalance was able to take the win and stop the reign of Zerg's over the OSL.
Jaedong's glory would come in the form of the MSL where he would win over Kal on a mostly neutral map pool (bluestorm 1.1, zodiac being zerg favored, and loki and katrina being Protoss favored). Kal indeed pushed Jaedon to his limit, but ultimately with a good map pool and the greater talent Jaedong came home with the win. MSL promptly adjusted their map pool the following season to make their pool even less Zerg friendly - and Jaedong getting 0-3'd was the result.
I dont know why Korean's don't want Zerg's winning tournaments, but the map balance the past season completely devastated both leagues Zerg population.
But there is another reason why Zerg's are getting a raw deal. Now that map makers know how to balance PvZ, and knowing very well that Protoss are the whiniest race on earth, they have chosen to prioritize PvZ balance over ZvT balance. This is different to the traditional Korean value of balancing Tvp/Tvz first then worrying about PvZ later. As a result, we've had a string of decent PvZ maps but absolutely terrible ZvT maps. As a large number of Terrans always qualify, season after season the number of Zerg's decrease.
Jaedong is probably the most talented starcraft player today, but his dominance is being largely nulled by the influx of anti-zerg maps. Not only has this devastated the number of Zergs qualifying for leagues - but it has also meant that Jaedong struggles to advance even though he is the best Zerg in the world. The map pools for the new seasons MUST be more Zerg oriented or at least try to bring some balanced maps to the table (KeSPA im looking at you) because losing TvZ as a viable matchup is a travesty to Starcraft as it is one of the most beautiful matchups in the game.
Who cares is Jaedong dominates ridiculously because the map pool is balanced? Whats more important is saving the Zerg race, and the art of ZvT, from near extinction. Hopefully KeSPA get the message before it's too late and Jaedong is a lone trooper.
  
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
Oh the savage blows my blog takes from discussion controversial topics!!
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Anyone who's taken any form of statistics can tell you that a ratio with such a small sample size (i.e. TvZ 5-2) isn't gonna be entirely accurate. That's the thing about alleged map imbalances; it's illogical to think one race is superior to another on a given map when <10 games have been played on it. Even Othello's 15-9. Zergs have pulled off nine, complete and solid wins on it. Sure, Terran players have won more, but that doesn't justify people automatically passing off this statistic as a "map imbalance" rather than plain-and-simple superior play from terran players.
"The stats of 3-5 in favor of Protoss clearly show that this map is heavily P>Z."
This is a small step away from saying a map is protoss dominant because it has a 4-5 ZvP win ratio. Besides, the game of SC is always evolving. Say you stick Collosseum into the Shinhan 2006 map pool. Things would be different, for sure.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that people should realize that the controlled variables in Starcraft (player's skill) means a whole lot more than the uncontrolled (maps). Or, if they truly believe in a map imbalance, should give examples (as in specific moments of the game) where the imbalance was really evident instead of pointing to a set of numbers all the time.
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ahaha, yeh I disagree. I'm sure the maps played a part, but Jaedong was just playing worse recently, and played horribly against FORGG. Didn't look like himself at all. I don't think there is some kind of conspiracy to destroy Zerg, and I don't blame Jaedongs inability to beat Han on map imbalance, I blame it on Jaedongs faltering game sense.
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maps have always been bad for zerg, good for terran. if you go back to the earliest starleagues and look at what yellow had to play against boxer on, you wouldn't have made this thread. even savior's osl win came on awful zvt maps
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On August 10 2008 01:38 tracer wrote:
Anyone who's taken any form of statistics can tell you that a ratio with such a small sample size (i.e. TvZ 5-2) isn't gonna be entirely accurate. That's the thing about alleged map imbalances; it's illogical to think one race is superior to another on a given map when <10 games have been played on it. Even Othello's 15-9. Zergs have pulled off nine, complete and solid wins on it. Sure, Terran players have won more, but that doesn't justify people automatically passing off this statistic as a "map imbalance" rather than plain-and-simple superior play from terran players.
"The stats of 3-5 in favor of Protoss clearly show that this map is heavily P>Z."
This is a small step away from saying a map is protoss dominant because it has a 4-5 ZvP win ratio. Besides, the game of SC is always evolving. Say you stick Collosseum into the Shinhan 2006 map pool. Things would be different, for sure.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that people should realize that the controlled variables in Starcraft (player's skill) means a whole lot more than the uncontrolled (maps). Or, if they truly believe in a map imbalance, should give examples (as in specific moments of the game) where the imbalance was really evident instead of pointing to a set of numbers all the time. Okay 3-5 is very small, but we all know from experience (TSL, Offline Prelims etc) that troy is a shitastic ZvP map
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It coulda easily easily been 4-4 if Best didnt best Lux. Your claim for troy is weak.
I do agree with the basic sentiment that the maps made it so much harder for JD. But I think ForGG deserves credit on his brackets. Such a lame finals.
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Spenguin
Australia3316 Posts
What can we do Plexa? What can we do?
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Based on my understanding, I think Jaedong overpractised. I have been watching his vods for the past few months and have noticed Jaedong's eyes dont look as bright as the first first time he played Bisu in the GOM TV S4 MSL . His face looks drained by pressure. I guess the over practise and lack of sleep makes his performance decline.
Add to the map imbalance, Jaedong loses more than before.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On August 10 2008 01:54 SuperJongMan wrote:
It coulda easily easily been 4-4 if Best didnt best Lux. Your claim for troy is weak.
I do agree with the basic sentiment that the maps made it so much harder for JD. But I think ForGG deserves credit on his brackets. Such a lame finals. Do you want me to unpack every ZvP on troy?+ Show Spoiler +Yarnc > Backho -> i dont even recall this game haha  but its backho so its probably terrible Lux > Bisu -> 5 pool brilliance, one time wonder build July > Best -> Drone drill, cheese at its finest
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I wish a korean would shed light on your question, of why koreans don't want a zerg champion.
I saw someone say something interesting a few days ago, about how being good at TvP and not good at TvZ is looked down upon in Korea. This boggled my mind, being a foreigner, because I really respect players who are good at TvP and don't really care about their TvZ. That's why I'm a huge Brat_OK and Yosh fan. It just feels like TvP is the more challenging matchup.
But apparently in Korea, probably because for a long time the scene had very few dominant protoss players, people respect great TvZ players. Maybe that's changing now, but I feel that it is probably a long ingrained sentiment in Korea.
This may somehow relate to why zergs have consistently received the shaft in map pools the last few starleagues. Maybe koreans just don't like seeing Zerg dominance anymore.
As for myself, I'm happy as long as protoss never win 
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Your sample size is too small. Less than ten matches and you scream "Imbalance!"? That's grasping at straws. ForGG knew what to do. He just walked over Jaedong. And pretty much like Savior after his fall from grace, Jaedong rushed for Hive tech because he didn't know what else to do. Back in his golden days he beat people by early ling pressure and then followed up with some lair tech Muta or Lurker pressure while slowly taking the map.
Against ForGG he only managed to pressure with his Lings in the third game and then followed up completely wasting his Mutas away. Shame really, I thought the games would be longer and more interesting.
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Hmm I agree that the maps don't favour zerg, but you just back it with statistics such as 5-3, and not so much why it became 5-3, which I want to know more about
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On August 10 2008 02:17 Simplistik wrote:
Your sample size is too small. Less than ten matches and you scream "Imbalance!"? That's grasping at straws. ForGG knew what to do. He just walked over Jaedong. And pretty much like Savior after his fall from grace, Jaedong rushed for Hive tech because he didn't know what else to do. Back in his golden days he beat people by early ling pressure and then followed up with some lair tech Muta or Lurker pressure while slowly taking the map.
Against ForGG he only managed to pressure with his Lings in the third game and then followed up completely wasting his Mutas away. Shame really, I thought the games would be longer and more interesting. On August 10 2008 02:20 TonyL2 wrote:
Hmm I agree that the maps don't favour zerg, but you just back it with statistics such as 5-3, and not so much why it became 5-3, which I want to know more about Playstyle on maps is typically indicative of how players see the map. More all-in/cheesy strategies than your average map generally indicates that the map is imbalanced. In starcraft you are always going to get a small sample size - and the rest of it must be inferred from playstyle. If you watch Jaedong vs Hwasin you can clearly see he has somewhat of an agitated style - which isn't typically of Jaedong's normal play. The reason for this non-standard play from Jaedong can be traced back to confidence on the maps; in training obviously he discovered that standard doesn't cut it and he needs to play unsound builds to win. This does show imbalance and while the sample size is small, the trend confirms the inference.
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Plexa,
A lot of free time right now?
You're on a roll with all these articles man. You should do an article on the 2v2 issue next! ^^
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I read it all plus the comments and I even agreed with the last Plexa article yet I can't for the love of my life agree with this article. Sorry but no zerg is 'helpless' even if the map is slightly imbalanced. And really, Troy isn't that bad for zerg. Not Blue Storm or Othello either.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On August 10 2008 02:32 Shauni wrote:
I read it all plus the comments and I even agreed with the last Plexa article yet I can't for the love of my life agree with this article. Sorry but no zerg is 'helpless' even if the map is slightly imbalanced. And really, Troy isn't that bad for zerg. Not Blue Storm or Othello either. You do realize that by saying that the maps are not imbalanced (especially bluestorm) that you are acknowledging that P>Z and T>Z on a fundamental level right? Else how do you explain the 30% winrate vs Protoss on BS?
And sure "helpless" was an hyperbole, but at an inherent disadvantage is the truth
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United States1654 Posts
I agree that the maps played a role in the fall of Zergs recently. I mean for a map like Tiamat with an extremely hard to defend third gas, it just screams complete and utter Terran domination.
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During all these years, most maps had stats which showed T>Z. Even during Savior's long period of dominance.
It's a given thing that Zergs always have to put up a better fight than their Terran enemy. If they're just even they'll lose. ZvT is hard (on pro level), there's nothing that can be done about it. M&M are too cost effective, and whether or not you can manage to take out enough vessels depends more on how bad the Terran microes them than how well you micro your scourges.
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There haven't been enough games on any of these maps for racial stats to be statistically significant yet. Of course there are going to be 203429 billion TvT games when everyone plays terran
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It may be true that T>Z fundamentally at the highest levels. The reason is simply that terran benefit more from micro/multitasking than zerg do. So while zvt may have been balanced at skill levels from 3 years ago, even if both races increase in skill at the same rate, the advantage goes to terran.
The main example is lurkers vs marines. At noob levels, lurkers > marines. At the pro level however, a group of Casy's or Hwasin's marines will beat a few lurkers without much trouble. This is especially true in small-scale battles, which modern terrans can force with their sick multi-tasking. Ling micro can only do so much for support.
(Sure, zerg had their time in the sun with muta stack micro, but this has largely been nullified by terrans now. Hold lurker is a good trick, but there's only a small window where it can be effective, and even so terran reaction time can abate this.)
edit: One way to test this hypothesis would be to have pros play on oldschool maps and see if the balance has tilted in terran's favour. The closest thing we'll get for now is Namja Iyagi vs Return of the King. Namja Iyagi used to be heavily zerg favoured.
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There was a big map disadvantage, but anyone who says  Jaedong played his best those games against  forGG_V_ is lying.
Jaedong played tired, and forGG_V_ played well. Maybe if the maps were balanced it would have been 3-2, or 3-1, but forGG_V_ would have won still.
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I'm not sure if I agree with the whole post, but some of it definitely applies. Tiamat is a joke ZvT map, at least give Jaedong SOME chance to come back from 2-0 :/
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plexa !!! thanks for the article
but.. poor jaedong .. ]:
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On August 10 2008 02:35 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2008 02:32 Shauni wrote:
I read it all plus the comments and I even agreed with the last Plexa article yet I can't for the love of my life agree with this article. Sorry but no zerg is 'helpless' even if the map is slightly imbalanced. And really, Troy isn't that bad for zerg. Not Blue Storm or Othello either. You do realize that by saying that the maps are not imbalanced (especially bluestorm) that you are acknowledging that P>Z and T>Z on a fundamental level right? Else how do you explain the 30% winrate vs Protoss on BS? And sure "helpless" was an hyperbole, but at an inherent disadvantage is the truth
You need access to practise quarters results to be sure about the imbalance of those maps because a couple of TV games can't possibly count as real statistics. And analyzing how much cheese that erupts from playing on certain maps is just ridiculous. I said - and agree to the point - that those maps are slightly favored against zerg, more or less but not to the state that Jaedong is 'helpless'. And I don't think you can talk about maps as 'imbalanced' as a whole, because in a map like Blue Storm, zerg has advantage early game against a protoss but loses that advantage as the map is split. It's the same on all non mirrored matchups on that map. Is TvP imbalanced on Blue Storm because it forces people to go carriers? Was Monty Hall imbalanced TvZ before the silver strat became popular? Is Tiamat imbalanced because four terrans won in a row against zerg? Imbalance is such a subjective term and it's impossible to analyze how much each player suffer from it.
I was not commenting because I want to argue that there is no imbalance in those maps. I wanted to comment about it because you made it sound like it was the end of Jaedong. As many other people said in this thread, those maps are nowhere near as imbalanced as many mappools in the past has been.
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I agree with many of the issues here. Some of the maps are clearly T/P favoring while I wouldn't say any maps are favoring Z. I don't think troy/athena/BS is really terrible maps for zvp, but indeed MSL final maps were pretty dumb. It looked awfully hard to beat Hwasin in them, and after that all the tricks in his sleeve were kinda showed for ForGG. After all it's really zerg who has to do tricks to beat top terrans while they just have to play very solid to do fine. Overall zergs have been doing very bad against terrans lately, and I don't think that means hwasin/forgg etc. have suddenly raised to level of top zergs like JD.
It's an overstatement though to say JD was destined to go 0-3. It did look like he had to do desperate stuff to survive though. He was doing fine in Colosseum so that game was definately possible for him to win. I agree that Tiamat looks like pretty bad map for zvt, and in othello T also has slight advantage.
Clearly when talking about map imbalance you can't really use such small samples as arguments as you did. I'd say 30% in less than 15 game sample doesn't prove anything, and as said 9-15 still isn't proof but when this happens in every map granted: slight overall imbalance shows when facing against players who play close to perfect solid games á la forgg/hwasin. I wouldn't notice the imbalance in lower levels since opponents @ iccup C-/C don't really use maps into their favor enough, but players at individual league finals definately do.
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Even though I totally hate Jaedong, it seems this is the correct reason as to why Jaedong has been losing recently. Great writeup, as usual.
Plexa is on a blogging spree. O_O
<3
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United States10774 Posts
Plexa as much as I love your articles I cannot agree with this one. Did you even watch Jaedong vs han on Blue Storm? JD had a comfortable lead all along, then fucking blew it with horrible attack timing and micro. I wouldn't attribute that to the map...he got outplayed. 3-5 on Troy is HEAVILY Protoss favored? Whaaaaat.
Jaedong failed to adapt and went with typical fast hive build every game vs ForGG. Got trashed the same way every game.
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Jaedong is a monster on Blue Storm he lost ot Han , maybe because he got overconfidant and over extended himself after their first encounter don't know normaly he has an endless suply of lings after his lurker wall on his side of the map .
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can you explain why the maps are imbalanced besides the numbers?
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jaedong had the same advantage forgg did when they played, he was able to see forgg's strategies in advance when they practiced. its not like forgg was the only one paying attention when theu practiced
you cant rely on statistics because there are way more good terran and protoss players than there are zerg
terran: nada hwasin flash midas iris lomo leta forgg sea.really sea fbh, the list goes on and on
protoss: best, much, stork(maybe not anymore), bisu, jangbi, kal
zerg: jaedong luxury julyzerg
there are simply a lack of good zerg players and using simple matchup statistics will not work, especially when there are relatively few games being played on maps
and kwanro isnt exactly "good" anymore
but i feel that jaedong was cheated out of his msl victory as well. forgg was totally undeserving imo, he lucked past flash who decided that a greedy and stupid bo would work 3 times in a row, even though the previous games totally proved him wrong
but isnt it still a victory for lecaf? :D
but you are right, jaedong losing to han is pretty bs t.t
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United States10774 Posts
Btw since when was Blue Storm considered a bad map for Zerg? Zerg has a HUGE lead over Terran on that map, and ZvP is balanced.
Troy, Athena, Blue Storm. Zerg friendly. Jaedong blew it.
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United States1654 Posts
On August 10 2008 03:34 OneOther wrote:
Jaedong failed to adapt and went with typical fast hive build every game vs ForGG. Got trashed the same way every game.
It's not so much that Jaedong failed to adapt, but he was forced to go fast Hive in games 2 and 3. His Mutalisk harass did next to zero damage to ForGG's economy, so Jaedong had to tech quickly to Defiler to have even a remote chance of fighting off ForGG's ball.
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imo the maps are slightly imbalanced, but not to the point where you can write JD off. I'd bet that Flash takes the opening Blue Storm game, just because he seems really strong on that map every game I watch. I'm just praying that JD 3-1's him becaues a Blue Storm final would be shitty for him imo.
Offtopic: Does anyone know what time the stream starts in Eastern Standard Time?
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On August 10 2008 03:15 Shauni wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2008 02:35 Plexa wrote:On August 10 2008 02:32 Shauni wrote:
I read it all plus the comments and I even agreed with the last Plexa article yet I can't for the love of my life agree with this article. Sorry but no zerg is 'helpless' even if the map is slightly imbalanced. And really, Troy isn't that bad for zerg. Not Blue Storm or Othello either. You do realize that by saying that the maps are not imbalanced (especially bluestorm) that you are acknowledging that P>Z and T>Z on a fundamental level right? Else how do you explain the 30% winrate vs Protoss on BS? And sure "helpless" was an hyperbole, but at an inherent disadvantage is the truth You need access to practise quarters results to be sure about the imbalance of those maps because a couple of TV games can't possibly count as real statistics. And analyzing how much cheese that erupts from playing on certain maps is just ridiculous. I said - and agree to the point - that those maps are slightly favored against zerg, more or less but not to the state that Jaedong is 'helpless'. And I don't think you can talk about maps as 'imbalanced' as a whole, because in a map like Blue Storm, zerg has advantage early game against a protoss but loses that advantage as the map is split. It's the same on all non mirrored matchups on that map. Is TvP imbalanced on Blue Storm because it forces people to go carriers? Was Monty Hall imbalanced TvZ before the silver strat became popular? Is Tiamat imbalanced because four terrans won in a row against zerg? Imbalance is such a subjective term and it's impossible to analyze how much each player suffer from it. I was not commenting because I want to argue that there is no imbalance in those maps. I wanted to comment about it because you made it sound like it was the end of Jaedong. As many other people said in this thread, those maps are nowhere near as imbalanced as many mappools in the past has been.
Monty Hall has mixed feelings. Both maps (normal and SE) are around same %winrate for terranvszerg, but main thing is how mirrors been going on. As we can see Z has bad winratio vs Protoss so game lately switched to PvT and/or PvP and finally TvT festival. Something must be wrong with map if zergs don't play that map anymore.
Little different with Colosseum, even if map is good for ZvP but the risk facing terran is high and its very hard map for zerg to win. So map has either PvP / TvT or PvT.
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On August 10 2008 02:00 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2008 01:54 SuperJongMan wrote:
It coulda easily easily been 4-4 if Best didnt best Lux. Your claim for troy is weak.
I do agree with the basic sentiment that the maps made it so much harder for JD. But I think ForGG deserves credit on his brackets. Such a lame finals. Do you want me to unpack every ZvP on troy? + Show Spoiler +Yarnc > Backho -> i dont even recall this game haha but its backho so its probably terrible Lux > Bisu -> 5 pool brilliance, one time wonder build July > Best -> Drone drill, cheese at its finest Troy is an imbalanced map, thats why it was removed from the TSL. I can't beleive i have to argue this point ;;
So really, you have no games to prove shit about troy.
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Drone drill, 5 pool, and a game you don't remember, and a sneak attack from Best.
Have you even seen a late game on the highest level? If not, can you play one yourself?
If not, how can you accurately commentate?
If you have nothing right to say about troy, just don't say anything.
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On August 10 2008 03:39 OneOther wrote:
Btw since when was Blue Storm considered a bad map for Zerg? Zerg has a HUGE lead over Terran on that map, and ZvP is balanced.
Troy, Athena, Blue Storm. Zerg friendly. Jaedong blew it.
Those wins are from pre 1.2/1.1 time after that map has been altered and zerg harass is little bit weaker.
Bad thing is that TLPD mixed all versions together, so nowdays Z has low winratios. See it from proleague thread.
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I think the blame for Jaedongs poor results lately have been more his fault that anyone elses. Yes the pool does favour Terran, and yes Jaedong in the past has overcome map imba for titles, but he just doesn't have his perfection play anymore. If you watch the games on Athena and Tiamat you'll see that Forgg executes perfect timing pushes that would have been applicable on most other maps. Jaedong just dealt with them poorly.
Obviously this isn't just to criticise Jaedong, the skill of his opponents has also been a huge factor. People clearly don't want to see it, but Han played good and Forgg played incredibly. Jaedong has been playing good lately too, but thats all his play has been.
My thoughts.
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United States1865 Posts
Man this is a great article.
Jaedong has had such a fucking hard career thus far, all his leagues have been packed full of anti-zerg maps that he has, quite amazingly, overcome. But the MSL finals against fOrGG were just.... stupidly imbalanced, and i'm a little dumbfounded by the people trying to argue that they arent.
There was even a translated interview with Jaedong BEFORE the finals over on GG.net, where he said that he predicted it would be an easy win for fOrGG because of the many days where he simply could not win on the maps during practice. (Not to mention the translated interview with fOrGG where he said whenever teammates play each other, it usually favors the Terran so he was confident about that). Jaedong was faced not with just a difficult final (ala sAviOr vs NaDa Shinhan 3), he was faced with an impossible final.
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I dont think bluestorm has even changed much in pvz since its change, protoss have figured out the map, they haven't been granted any particular change in the geography that allows them to dominate. Zergs have failed to adapt, Jaedong has failed to adapt, its their failings. Jaedongs awkwardness in his games against forgg and Hwasin through most of his matches with him, can be placed on Jaedongs lack of confidence recently, less so than the maps. Unless you can point out why Tiamat, Othello etc, are so damned impossible for even an incredibly skilled zerg to win, you are simply grasping at straws.
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Unless you can point out something in Othello that makes it highly T biased, I won't be willing to buy it. The layout of the map makes mutalisk harass and zerg play at least very viable, and as for the statistics, almost all of the TvZ wins have been, well, winning TvZ'ers vs losing ZvT'ers.
Despite the inherent map bias though, Jaedong got completely steamrolled. Had it been Jaedong losing despite putting up an excellent fight, then that might be otherwise. But it's easy to imagine ForGG steamrolling Jaedong on another map.
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If it's not clear to you right now that the map pool is [i]heavily not-favoring Zergs then I don't know what else will convince you. The question simply has to be, why are these map pools so utterly terrible that even Jaedong, master of the swarm, can't beat a B team rookie on the maps from the pool?
I think what killed Jaedong on Colloseum was placement of Spire and Chamber. He tried to be tricky with hiding Lair but I don't think he expected drop. This was the turning point in the game for me, slowed him down enough to fOrGG take that game.
I don't understand what happened on Othello, I need to re-watch this one... looked as fOrGG attacked just in right time, knowing Zerg is weak then... wasn't it timing attack when Z switches to Lurkers and doesn't have enough of them? Either way, those Tanks supplemented that greatly.
On Tiamat JD went low eco and when it failed he was dead, it was matter of time.
So at least 2 of 3 loses in MSL finals can be explained with errors in play and as I don't like Troy too, I don't think loses there can be based on such a small stats as ppl already wrote 
+made typo in OP in bold ;PP
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United States1865 Posts
On August 10 2008 06:05 beetlelisk wrote:Show nested quote +If it's not clear to you right now that the map pool is [i]heavily not-favoring Zergs then I don't know what else will convince you. The question simply has to be, why are these map pools so utterly terrible that even Jaedong, master of the swarm, can't beat a B team rookie on the maps from the pool? I think what killed Jaedong on Colloseum was placement of Spire and Chamber. He tried to be tricky with hiding Lair but I don't think he expected drop. This was the turning point in the game for me, slowed him down enough to fOrGG take that game. I don't understand what happened on Othello, I need to re-watch this one... looked as fOrGG attacked just in right time, knowing Zerg is weak then... wasn't it timing attack when Z switches to Lurkers and doesn't have enough of them? Either way, those Tanks supplemented that greatly. On Tiamat JD went low eco and when it failed he was dead, it was matter of time. So at least 2 of 3 loses in MSL finals can be explained with errors in play and as I don't like Troy too, I don't think loses there can be based on such a small stats as ppl already wrote +made typo in OP in bold ;PP
you are only looking at the most basic of information, the failing of JD's builds, and assuming that if he had chosen something different he would have had a better shot -- when in fact the way the korean training system works that is rarely the case. Jaedong practiced like a madman for these finals, and he didnt do something like "be sneaky on Colosseum" or "go low eco, all-in style" on Tiamat because of a whim -- but because he felt like going straight up on those maps (based on hundreds of practice games) would be suicide and he needed to use shaky, risky builds to try and gain a material advantage.
I dont think bluestorm has even changed much in pvz since its change, protoss have figured out the map, they haven't been granted any particular change in the geography that allows them to dominate. Zergs have failed to adapt, Jaedong has failed to adapt, its their failings. Jaedongs awkwardness in his games against forgg and Hwasin through most of his matches with him, can be placed on Jaedongs lack of confidence recently, less so than the maps. Unless you can point out why Tiamat, Othello etc, are so damned impossible for even an incredibly skilled zerg to win, you are simply grasping at straws.
Jaedong's lack of confidence is DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTED to the maps. You are just spouting off a bunch of theories with no evidence and making it seem like player's builds and "akwardness" are some innate character flaw and not the result of a near insurmountable map disadvantage.
People have pointed out specifically what makes Tiamat imbalanced, the inability for the zerg to safely secure a 3rd gas (i.e. what they need to even hope to withstand the marine/medic onslaught), and Othello -- while more difficult to pinpoint and probably the most balanced of all maps in the pool, has shown in statistics to favor Terran (not only in the obvious 17-10 base stats, but in the far more telling 52 TvT's vs 4 ZvZ's)
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On August 10 2008 06:31 Atrioc wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2008 06:05 beetlelisk wrote:If it's not clear to you right now that the map pool is [i]heavily not-favoring Zergs then I don't know what else will convince you. The question simply has to be, why are these map pools so utterly terrible that even Jaedong, master of the swarm, can't beat a B team rookie on the maps from the pool? I think what killed Jaedong on Colloseum was placement of Spire and Chamber. He tried to be tricky with hiding Lair but I don't think he expected drop. This was the turning point in the game for me, slowed him down enough to fOrGG take that game. I don't understand what happened on Othello, I need to re-watch this one... looked as fOrGG attacked just in right time, knowing Zerg is weak then... wasn't it timing attack when Z switches to Lurkers and doesn't have enough of them? Either way, those Tanks supplemented that greatly. On Tiamat JD went low eco and when it failed he was dead, it was matter of time. So at least 2 of 3 loses in MSL finals can be explained with errors in play and as I don't like Troy too, I don't think loses there can be based on such a small stats as ppl already wrote +made typo in OP in bold ;PP you are only looking at the most basic of information, the failing of JD's builds, and assuming that if he had chosen something different he would have had a better shot -- when in fact the way the korean training system works that is rarely the case. Jaedong practiced like a madman for these finals, and he didnt do something like "be sneaky on Colosseum" or "go low eco, all-in style" on Tiamat because of a whim -- but because he felt like going straight up on those maps (based on hundreds of practice games) would be suicide and he needed to use shaky, risky builds to try and gain a material advantage. Show nested quote +I dont think bluestorm has even changed much in pvz since its change, protoss have figured out the map, they haven't been granted any particular change in the geography that allows them to dominate. Zergs have failed to adapt, Jaedong has failed to adapt, its their failings. Jaedongs awkwardness in his games against forgg and Hwasin through most of his matches with him, can be placed on Jaedongs lack of confidence recently, less so than the maps. Unless you can point out why Tiamat, Othello etc, are so damned impossible for even an incredibly skilled zerg to win, you are simply grasping at straws. Jaedong's lack of confidence is DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTED to the maps. You are just spouting off a bunch of theories with no evidence and making it seem like player's builds and "akwardness" are some innate character flaw and not the result of a near insurmountable map disadvantage. People have pointed out specifically what makes Tiamat imbalanced, the inability for the zerg to safely secure a 3rd gas (i.e. what they need to even hope to withstand the marine/medic onslaught), and Othello -- while more difficult to pinpoint and probably the most balanced of all maps in the pool, has shown in statistics to favor Terran (not only in the obvious 17-10 base stats, but in the far more telling 52 TvT's vs 4 ZvZ's)
yeah because as we can see from Stork's play in Stork vs. Flash series in Bacchus OSL finals that progamers ALWAYS choose the best builds >_>
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United States22883 Posts
On August 10 2008 01:56 soccercop wrote:
Based on my understanding, I think Jaedong overpractised. I have been watching his vods for the past few months and have noticed Jaedong's eyes dont look as bright as the first first time he played Bisu in the GOM TV S4 MSL . His face looks drained by pressure. I guess the over practise and lack of sleep makes his performance decline.
Add to the map imbalance, Jaedong loses more than before.
To be honest, Jaedong looks pissed off at everyone he plays. I think it's great.
Plexa, I agree with the intent of your article but I think you'd be better off explaining what parts of the map make it imbalanced rather than showing the win/loss records, which are a crappy measure. The 5-3 is the easiest example, because it could very well be 4-4 which would defeat your point, UNLESS you showed which features make it imba.
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On August 10 2008 06:31 Atrioc wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2008 06:05 beetlelisk wrote:If it's not clear to you right now that the map pool is [i]heavily not-favoring Zergs then I don't know what else will convince you. The question simply has to be, why are these map pools so utterly terrible that even Jaedong, master of the swarm, can't beat a B team rookie on the maps from the pool? I think what killed Jaedong on Colloseum was placement of Spire and Chamber. He tried to be tricky with hiding Lair but I don't think he expected drop. This was the turning point in the game for me, slowed him down enough to fOrGG take that game. I don't understand what happened on Othello, I need to re-watch this one... looked as fOrGG attacked just in right time, knowing Zerg is weak then... wasn't it timing attack when Z switches to Lurkers and doesn't have enough of them? Either way, those Tanks supplemented that greatly. On Tiamat JD went low eco and when it failed he was dead, it was matter of time. So at least 2 of 3 loses in MSL finals can be explained with errors in play and as I don't like Troy too, I don't think loses there can be based on such a small stats as ppl already wrote +made typo in OP in bold ;PP you are only looking at the most basic of information, the failing of JD's builds, and assuming that if he had chosen something different he would have had a better shot -- when in fact the way the korean training system works that is rarely the case. Jaedong practiced like a madman for these finals, and he didnt do something like "be sneaky on Colosseum" or "go low eco, all-in style" on Tiamat because of a whim -- but because he felt like going straight up on those maps (based on hundreds of practice games) would be suicide and he needed to use shaky, risky builds to try and gain a material advantage.
I remember Lomo raping Jaedong Mutas on Tiamat so this + 2 loses earlier could be reason of his low eco.
Problem is those still weren't 'standard' games and it would be nice if (as Jibba wrote) Plexa would write something about imbalances more. Maybe using Seismic Maps thread from Final Edits?
Another thing is there were people like thedeadHaji who expected fOrGG to win before those games were played, so map imbalances could be a factor but not the biggest one of 0-3 result.
I don't know about other games mentioned in OP and I can see stats don't favor Zergs (I read final stats before play offs? in PL) but maybe exhaustion caused by training and MSL games themselves can explain this.
Losing to 0 no matter on what current maps isn't something common for 1st some time ago and 2nd ranked player in KESPA (unless it changed recently?) who has to have good wins versus other pros on the very same maps.
In short, I don't think maps themselves decided all those loses.
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On August 10 2008 03:34 OneOther wrote:
Plexa as much as I love your articles I cannot agree with this one. Did you even watch Jaedong vs han on Blue Storm? JD had a comfortable lead all along, then fucking blew it with horrible attack timing and micro. I wouldn't attribute that to the map...he got outplayed. 3-5 on Troy is HEAVILY Protoss favored? Whaaaaat.
Jaedong failed to adapt and went with typical fast hive build every game vs ForGG. Got trashed the same way every game.
I have similar feelings here.. Plexa's articles are pretty cool but this one wasn't one of his best(can't all be great =P) I think that Plexa was just asking to be flamed when he made a statement like, "The stats of 3-5 in favor of Protoss clearly show that this map is heavily P>Z."
Anyway from what I understand, the only actual difference between the old Blue Storm and the new one is that the minerals have been moved up to help deter mutalisk harassment.
But the thing is, in the Han vs JD game - the new change played 0 role in the game.. JD went 5 hatchery scourge -> hydralisks (as he usually does nowadays). JD ended up getting a massive advantage after destroying the zeal/reaver timing attack, but made the mistake of giving Han a sliver of hope and with near flawless control, Han was able to come back and win the game.
I don't believe that map imbalance attributed very much at all to that loss.
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United States11390 Posts
Troy is really bad zvp though.
It turns into an island map and z just gets fucked up the ass no lube on islands against P.
Sair/Reaver is incredibly strong on that map
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Really interesting writeup, and I will agree with you that the maps are currently not friendly for zerg but..
Then you fall off the deep end in OGN conspiracy land. OGN sponsored proteam's star player is a zerg man. With that fact along you would expect OGN to try to make zerg-favored maps, not the other way around.
I think the fact of the matter is that there are very subtle things that make maps zerg or protoss favored (terran is usually easier to spot). Just take Hwarangdo for example: when it was revealed the comments on TL ranged from 'zerg graveyard' to 'zerg graveyard' against Protoss. Fast forward and we find a 6-2 ZvP winrate and the lack of natural expo gas is shown to hurt P more than Z.
At the same time there is pressure to keep introducing new maps every season and to not just recycle old map concepts with a new face. It is easy to see why this results in the occasional imbalances.
And to be perfectly honest, I think Zerg is simply the most brittle to map balances. Terrans and Protoss seem to be able to adapt to various maps and find ways to win, but Zergs seem like there is just one map layout that they can prosper on.
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On August 10 2008 05:18 SerpentFlame wrote:
Unless you can point out something in Othello that makes it highly T biased, I won't be willing to buy it.
Everyone's right in saying that there aren't enough official games to have meaningful statistics, but the pros practice thousands of games on these maps. As a result, the races chosen by the proteams to play on each map should give a good indication of how they feel about the balance.
In the last PL weekly stats report, Othello had:
9-8 TvP 41 TvT
0-2 PvZ 1 PvP
7-13 ZvT 2 ZvZ
In the 83 games on Othello,
Terran was sent out 119 times.
Protoss 21 times.
Zerg 26 times.
After thousands of practice games, the proteams chose a terran to play on Othello 72% of the time. You could argue that terran played on Othello a lot because the other maps weren't favorable to them, but terran also had a winning record on blue storm, colosseum, and wuthering heights (two-thirds of the map pool). A quick look at the rosters shows that there aren't more terran players than the other races on proteams. If terran were so dominant, why would teams pay equal numbers of zerg and protoss players?
The only reasonable conclusion is that Othello is extremely favorable to terran.
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On August 10 2008 09:13 Goosey wrote:
Really interesting writeup, and I will agree with you that the maps are currently not friendly for zerg but..
Then you fall off the deep end in OGN conspiracy land. OGN sponsored proteam's star player is a zerg man. With that fact along you would expect OGN to try to make zerg-favored maps, not the other way around.
I think the fact of the matter is that there are very subtle things that make maps zerg or protoss favored (terran is usually easier to spot). Just take Hwarangdo for example: when it was revealed the comments on TL ranged from 'zerg graveyard' to 'zerg graveyard' against Protoss. Fast forward and we find a 6-2 ZvP winrate and the lack of natural expo gas is shown to hurt P more than Z.
At the same time there is pressure to keep introducing new maps every season and to not just recycle old map concepts with a new face. It is easy to see why this results in the occasional imbalances.
And to be perfectly honest, I think Zerg is simply the most brittle to map balances. Terrans and Protoss seem to be able to adapt to various maps and find ways to win, but Zergs seem like there is just one map layout that they can prosper on.
I think hwarangdo was about ZvT what was complained about, ZvP is good if natural doesn't have gas. But this time 2-2 stats are too low to judge map balance. Because of all zerg group at RO16 only one game was played GGplay vs Flash which flash dominated.
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also, its hard to tell if jaedong is really slumping. he still has plenty of time to dominate the starcraft world. he got to the msl finals and hes in the gsi finals as well. it took months for people to realize that savior wasnt the same player he used to be but he was still good for awhile after he was dethroned by bisu and although he cant be considered a top 10 player anymore, he isnt a random nobody either.
hes still number 2 on kespa and number 2 on the powerrank and for good reason. forgg made his way through a bunch of good players and its not like forgg is a chump. he has amazing macro and he let it show.
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Yeah, with such a small sample space of games, it would be better to point out WHY a map is imbalanced, than just the stats. Like, Troy is good for Protoss because you can turn it into an island map, and island map Protoss rapes.
I'm not a zerg player, so I have no idea why Colloseum is bad for ZvT. Same with Othello, how is that an imbalanced map ZvT? And Bluestorm heavily favors Protoss now that it is 1.2? The only change from Bluestorm 1.1 to 1.2, was moving those minerals back, which helps Terran vs Zerg. How does that change change Bluestorm from a slightly Z map, to a heavily P map? I'd say the stats in alot of these cases, is just the Zergs getting outplayed, rather than the maps owning the Zerg.
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I can see that Tiamat is imbalanced in favor of T but the rest of the maps its really not that bad.
I think much more than the maps being imbalanced, its actually the poor play we've been seeing from zergs lately which is bringing the statistics that suggest imbalance. (Really what about Othello and Colloseum and Athena make them hard for ZvT? Theres a bunch of close gas expos on athena that seem really easy to hold IMO)
If you think about it, there are not many strong zerg players nowadays and there are ALOT of strong terrans sooo its pretty obvious that there is going to be a general T>Z trend...
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Maps made it hard for Jaedong. But if he was seriously that talented, that he seriously could outclass any opponent, then maps wouldn't have been that big of a deal.
For the colosseum imbalance, even though the stats favor terran, its only because better terran players kept facing off against worse zergs. Kwanro lost to Lomo, who is pretty hot right now. Lux lost to Sea, who could basically take a game from anyone. Mind/Flash/Nada beat Calm/Yarnc/Shark respectively. I would consider the better player winning each one of those times.
Savior had to play on Longinus 2 and Reverse Temple, two maps with a terran win-rate of over 60%. Neo Araknoid and Hitchhiker were much more zerg friendly, but still not zerg imbalanced. If Jaedong was good enough to be considered "cheated" if he didn't win, then it isn't the maps fault for his loss. Its his own.
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i think you're putting down forgg too much
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thedeadhaji
39489 Posts
wtf they used athena in the osl offline?
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I'm not sure whether it really is so, or whether it's just my perception of things, but it seems that under the current system, it has become more difficult than ever for a progamer to have a clear advantage over others. This topic must have been discussed before so I won't go into it.
In an age where no-name amateur/practice partner gamers are able to defeat top level gamers given enough luck, the smallest of factors can contribute to the victory or defeat of a player, no matter how godly. Now I hate it just like everyone else when there are claims that maps played the biggest factor, because it basically denies the skill involved in the matches (and it doesn't get much better than the skill involved in a BO5 in the finals of the MSL no less).
Nobody is denying ForGG's skill here. He came, he saw and he whooped ass. He played an impeccable game and Jaedong looked almost pitiful against him. People make their own luck. Good maps or not, ForGG wouldn't have won if he wasn't up to it (see Hwasin). We witnessed Jaedong unable to answer what a zerg should do against every zerg's nightmare - an excellent terran on a terran favouring map.
I wouldn't go as far as to say that Jaedong was cheated out of his MSL victory. Hell, if we're to re-assess every tournament to satisfy our standards of what should have been "fair", history would have had things very different from the way it is now. I'm sure Yellow would like to have a say or two about his "should have been different" finals, but that's life. Is it fair? No.
I was so broken hearted by Jaedong's downfall (I left the stage in disgust before the 3rd game even finished) that I took a brief break from Starcraft. Then I looked looked back on the season: teams with strong TvT or PvT players succeeded in the proleague, TvT matches being a definate fix in matches between two teams - a season that basically had decent balance in PvT and ZvP but failed to balance TvZ.
But it wasn't the imbalance itself that pissed me off. Hell, there's been BAD maps (Ragnarok, Paradoxx, Neo Ever Forte, R-Point, Geometry etc) and people aren't exactly crazy for more ZvZ (I know for sure that if ZvZ was played as much as TvT was this season, people would be screaming for the mappers' blood)
What saddened me was the fact that a relatively bad patch of map pool for zergs came at a time when Jaedong was ready to shine. We're blessed with numerous excellent gamers today, but I feel that Jaedong is the most special of them all. His micro embarasses fellow top zergs like 815, given maps like Katrina, we're left to witness his inhuman multitasking that leaves their opponents scratching their heads wondering what they did wrong. I didn't necessary want Jaedong humiliating other top gamers on zerg friendly maps with a win record of 96.65% or something. I just wanted to witness his genius.
Jaedong fumbling with his units not knowing what the hell to do against a terran that actually manages to make most of their advantageous environment is not what I wanted to see. No genius here. Just another zerg getting OWNED by whatever you want to point the finger at - maps, better gaming or mind block. What doesn't destroy you makes you stronger, it's just that Jaedong was destroyed. Ideally, he would have defied the odds like Savior, but seriously, I think we're NEVER going experience such a story from the scene ever again.
Whatever the reasons, we had a phenomenally gifted zerg player failing spectacularly against terrans early on in the season, being forced to limit his 1v1 appearances to ZvZ gamers only, forcing his way into the MSL finals only to get wasted by a teammate who knew his limitations as zerg. I think we're being denied from seeing the full extent of his genius here.
Just my two cents.
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Well, after watching Jaedong break Flash's head in on Othello I feel that it is much more difficult to blame the maps. Othello is a terran friendly map and Jaedong absolutely tore Flash a new one. Maybe Flash played badly, but Jaedong proved that map imbalance isn't capable of taking a victory away from him. ForGG clearly just played better than flash.
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EPT![[image loading]](/staff/Plexa/Jaedong/mslfinal.jpg)
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![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/Jaedong/4.png)
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