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I just started wondering about the gap between pros and casual players. Pros play over 8 hours a day almost every day while casual players play an hour or two during their free time. Can this gap in their skill be quantified?
I am a low-mid master zerg player who has been playing since WOL beta. Master players are supposed to be the top 2% of all sc2 players, right? So how good are pros?
So if I was to play a pro what would be my chances of taking a game? I would be really trying and paying very precise attention to the builds. I don't play as much anymore but can still maintain master league every season. I also watch a lot of streams and know a few precise builds. The pro would also be trying as if it was a tournament.
Could I take a game off a pro in 5 games? 10 games? 20 games? Never?
Poll: Number of games needed for me to take a game off a pro?Never be able to win. Gap is too large (21) 48% 50 (17) 39% 10 (3) 7% 1 (Anything is possible) (2) 5% 5 (1) 2% 44 total votes Your vote: Number of games needed for me to take a game off a pro? (Vote): 5
(Vote): 10
(Vote): 50
(Vote): 1 (Anything is possible)
(Vote): Never be able to win. Gap is too large
I also know that ZvZ has a bit more luck factor because of the lack of scouting knowledge. What do you think are my chances of taking a game based off of race I'm facing? Do you think Zerg is the easiest?
vs a pro Terran (like Demuslim) Could I just baneling bust and somehow win a game?
vs a pro Zerg (like Idra) Mass speedling all in him for a win?
vs a pro Protoss (like Huk) Throw in a 6 pool when he forge fes?
If you had to give a probability, what probability (chance) do you think I have of taking a game off a pro based off of race?
For example: I might have like a 20% chance of winning a ZvZ and a 5% of winning of ZvT or ZvP. What do you think?
  
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You could beat them with an allin if they don't know you're bad. If they know you're bad they will play defensive and never lose. It's certainly possible once you're mid/high masters (playing gm occasionally on ladder) to win, it's just unlikely and requires you to get lucky.
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^^ I guess they wouldn't know I am bad. Let's just say it is the open brackett of MLG so they have to try hard but don't know me at all.
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you should take one in 50 with some cheese.
just to give u an example: i am a low-mid gm player and i would say that i need 5-10 to take a game off a real pro.
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chances are higher if you dont play serious, just make stupid allin or something like that.
If you play serious, you will play a lot more defensive -> chances are significantly smaller to win.
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It depends how seriously they are taking it. If there was some messup in the matchmaking system and I got put against a pro 50 times in a row, I'd probably win a few of those games. If they were playing their best as if I was a respectable opponent, I'd never win a single game outside of random coinflips. Although if I played a single pro 500 times in a row, I'd probably get good enough to win a small percentage consistently.
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When you look at pro streams, they lose all the time to high master and non-pro gm players. A common way to lose is against some sort of all in where the pro makes some mistake like not raising a depot, missing a force field, or a mismicro. Proxies are also devastating if they don't get scouted. I think with 50 games, you'll be able to take at least one of them.
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If a pro knows that you are bad, they can just play super-conservative and pound your ass into the ground 99 times out of a hundred. You'd need to wear the pro down before you took a win.
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I can tell you from my own experiences (although based off of BW) that the chances are obviously there to take a game, but they're very slight and are based on a proper timing/surprise to get an advantage and then being able to follow up on that advantage.
If it comes to a standard game the chances are very low, the experience gap is large (from the amount of played games a pro has lived through a lot more different scenarios, and a lot more often), less supply blocks, better timings, etc.
While one may sometimes think that the player they're watching on a stream isn't even that great, when you play against them you'll notice that it's still way better than what you're capable off.
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The problem is, unless one of your responders is someone of a reasonable level of play who actually HAS played a great deal of games vs. a pro (Or at least a semi-pro, to have an idea of what facing a pro would be like), everyone replying is merely guessing. Since I'm not one of these, I won't deign to guess. Dingodile seems like the main guy to actually listen to, assuming his estimation of his own skill is correct.
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If you are a low-mid master zerg and you play 1-2 hours a day no you won't beat them unless they play super super super greedy (which they never do vs unknown players).
The best chance you'd have at winning would be in a zvz with a ling all in, but it most likely won't work because your control won't be as good (people who are low masters, and don't play much normally don't have very good control) and yeah.
I would give you .1% in zvt/zvp and 10% zvz just because there is the chance that they do something stupid and then lose to a ling all in.
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Are you talking about a live event or just a normal ladder game?
If its just a normal ladder game, it's quite possible for a master players to take a game off a Pro. I used to ladder quite abit and when I was high master than GM, i've beaten a fair share of pros. It's quite exciting in the beginning especially when they are popular streamers, I rmb popping into stream chats of forgg, idra and incontrol after I got lucky haha. After some time though, you realise it doesn't mean much unless you beat them in a live event or a tournament that matters.
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Think about a gold, plat or diamond player. How many games would you have to play against them before you lost one?
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you probably would have had a better chance in WoL with infestor broodlord turtling but now the gap is even bigger since good players can harass zergs better than before.
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I remember a diamond used a proxy robo into 4 gate immortal or 3 gate immortal all in in a pvp and almost beat a really good toss during one mlg opening
He posted a blog about it here on tl
As long as your cheese play is strong, you do have a chance within 20games
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I think you can beat a pro in a random ladder game with some sort of all in, but I don't think you could consistently beat them.
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I see pro players fairly often to high-ish masters players or low gm's on ladder, it's not impossible. I saw idra lose a whole bunch of games to masters terran players today, and a few games to blade5555 (who is a non-pro gm). If you try to play a greedy macro game you're not going to win, though.
I think it also really depends on the pro. If we're talking about, say, Flash or Innovation or Jangbi or Soulkey, then you will never, ever, ever, ever ,win. If we're talking about pros like Destiny, Idra, Dragon etc then your chances are significantly better.
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On July 06 2013 11:07 ETisME wrote:
I remember a diamond used a proxy robo into 4 gate immortal or 3 gate immortal all in in a pvp and almost beat a really good toss during one mlg opening
He posted a blog about it here on tl
As long as your cheese play is strong, you do have a chance within 20games
I'd even say within 10. All ins can be extraordinarily strong if unscouted. I think I remember that blog  . Think about it, there are guys in GM who only cannon rush or only 6 pool (or BBS back when it existed) and they beat pros with them.
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If you were high masters i would say anything is possible. I took rare games off "known" players at my peak (though mostly just got my face stomped).
For low masters the chance is essentially 0.
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vs guys like the ones you posted (idra, huk, etc)? you might have a chance. against top koreans? no way.
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If you are masters I think you could take a game off a pro within 50 games. Randomly alternate between hyper aggressive cheese and obscenely greedy play. Just keep flipping coins until you win.
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Basically anything is possible here. I took a game of a korean progamer when i was in mid master (DT rush... Yay!!!) but this is rather rare. It's definitly doable but i guess you will need about 20-50 games depending on whom u play.
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You would win in no less than 5 games; tell your friends and family.
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You know, even between pros there is a pretty big skill gap that is potentially even bigger than GM vs Masters. I've taken games off of gms but would they be considered pro just because they have competed a few times in MLG or some online cups? Even in foreigner pros there's a pretty big skill gap between a gm player and someone like demuslim or tlo. Beyond them, there are even better korean pros, and beyond that there are current GSL/WCS champions who outclasses them.
Soooo I think in 50 games you can definitely take a game off of a gm player if you mix up your strategies a bit.
But would you ever take a game off of innovation, soulkey, or flash? Not a chance imo :p
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if you just constantly keep on doing very early all in rushes you might get one lucky one in there, but youre almost assuredly gonna get stomped if you dont pull a fast one like that. all these master and grand master players like to think theyre just undiscovered stars, but there is a massive gap for most people
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I honestly think that if you play the best games of your life using clever cheeses, mindgames AND its a mirror match-up, you can probably take a game off a mid-tier pro within 20 games if you are low-mid masters. If you are high masters/low GM, then I'm pretty sure you can do it within 10 games or less.
The reason is there are a lot of build order losses that can happen in mirror matchups, and pros do dick around sometimes on ladder. If its at a tournament, you're chances probably slim to none. And if its a top korean pro? Maybe if ur also lucky enough to win the lottery
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EPT
