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Active: 634 users

How good are pros?

Blogs > needcomputer
Post a Reply
1 2 Next All
lantz
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States762 Posts
July 05 2013 19:52 GMT
#1
I just started wondering about the gap between pros and casual players. Pros play over 8 hours a day almost every day while casual players play an hour or two during their free time. Can this gap in their skill be quantified?

I am a low-mid master zerg player who has been playing since WOL beta. Master players are supposed to be the top 2% of all sc2 players, right? So how good are pros?

So if I was to play a pro what would be my chances of taking a game? I would be really trying and paying very precise attention to the builds. I don't play as much anymore but can still maintain master league every season. I also watch a lot of streams and know a few precise builds. The pro would also be trying as if it was a tournament.

Could I take a game off a pro in 5 games? 10 games? 20 games? Never?

Poll: Number of games needed for me to take a game off a pro?

Never be able to win. Gap is too large (21)
 
48%

50 (17)
 
39%

10 (3)
 
7%

1 (Anything is possible) (2)
 
5%

5 (1)
 
2%

44 total votes

Your vote: Number of games needed for me to take a game off a pro?

(Vote): 5
(Vote): 10
(Vote): 50
(Vote): 1 (Anything is possible)
(Vote): Never be able to win. Gap is too large





I also know that ZvZ has a bit more luck factor because of the lack of scouting knowledge. What do you think are my chances of taking a game based off of race I'm facing? Do you think Zerg is the easiest?

vs a pro Terran (like Demuslim) Could I just baneling bust and somehow win a game?

vs a pro Zerg (like Idra) Mass speedling all in him for a win?

vs a pro Protoss (like Huk) Throw in a 6 pool when he forge fes?

If you had to give a probability, what probability (chance) do you think I have of taking a game off a pro based off of race?

For example: I might have like a 20% chance of winning a ZvZ and a 5% of winning of ZvT or ZvP. What do you think?

**
rauk
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
United States2228 Posts
July 05 2013 19:58 GMT
#2
You could beat them with an allin if they don't know you're bad. If they know you're bad they will play defensive and never lose. It's certainly possible once you're mid/high masters (playing gm occasionally on ladder) to win, it's just unlikely and requires you to get lucky.
lantz
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States762 Posts
July 05 2013 20:02 GMT
#3
^^ I guess they wouldn't know I am bad. Let's just say it is the open brackett of MLG so they have to try hard but don't know me at all.
KalWarkov
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Germany4126 Posts
July 05 2013 20:06 GMT
#4
you should take one in 50 with some cheese.
just to give u an example: i am a low-mid gm player and i would say that i need 5-10 to take a game off a real pro.
DiaBoLuS ** Sc2 - Protoss: 16x GM | Dota2 - Offlane Immortal | Wc3 - Undead decent level | Diablo nerd | Chess / Magnus fanboy | BVB | Agnostic***
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4133 Posts
July 05 2013 20:07 GMT
#5
chances are higher if you dont play serious, just make stupid allin or something like that.
If you play serious, you will play a lot more defensive -> chances are significantly smaller to win.
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Najda
Profile Joined June 2010
United States3765 Posts
July 05 2013 21:17 GMT
#6
It depends how seriously they are taking it. If there was some messup in the matchmaking system and I got put against a pro 50 times in a row, I'd probably win a few of those games. If they were playing their best as if I was a respectable opponent, I'd never win a single game outside of random coinflips. Although if I played a single pro 500 times in a row, I'd probably get good enough to win a small percentage consistently.
Chairman Ray
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States11903 Posts
July 05 2013 21:31 GMT
#7
When you look at pro streams, they lose all the time to high master and non-pro gm players. A common way to lose is against some sort of all in where the pro makes some mistake like not raising a depot, missing a force field, or a mismicro. Proxies are also devastating if they don't get scouted. I think with 50 games, you'll be able to take at least one of them.
AnachronisticAnarchy
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States2957 Posts
July 05 2013 21:59 GMT
#8
If a pro knows that you are bad, they can just play super-conservative and pound your ass into the ground 99 times out of a hundred. You'd need to wear the pro down before you took a win.
"How are you?" "I am fine, because it is not normal to scream in pain."
LML
Profile Blog Joined March 2007
Germany1764 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-05 22:39:41
July 05 2013 22:39 GMT
#9
I can tell you from my own experiences (although based off of BW) that the chances are obviously there to take a game, but they're very slight and are based on a proper timing/surprise to get an advantage and then being able to follow up on that advantage.
If it comes to a standard game the chances are very low, the experience gap is large (from the amount of played games a pro has lived through a lot more different scenarios, and a lot more often), less supply blocks, better timings, etc.
While one may sometimes think that the player they're watching on a stream isn't even that great, when you play against them you'll notice that it's still way better than what you're capable off.
LML
Salivanth
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Australia1071 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-05 23:39:28
July 05 2013 23:35 GMT
#10
The problem is, unless one of your responders is someone of a reasonable level of play who actually HAS played a great deal of games vs. a pro (Or at least a semi-pro, to have an idea of what facing a pro would be like), everyone replying is merely guessing. Since I'm not one of these, I won't deign to guess. Dingodile seems like the main guy to actually listen to, assuming his estimation of his own skill is correct.
<@Wikt> so you are one of those nega-fans <@Wikt> that hates the company that makes a game and everything they stand for <@Wikt> but still plays the game <@Wikt> (like roughly 30% of blizzard's player base, maybe much more...)
blade55555
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States17423 Posts
July 05 2013 23:39 GMT
#11
If you are a low-mid master zerg and you play 1-2 hours a day no you won't beat them unless they play super super super greedy (which they never do vs unknown players).

The best chance you'd have at winning would be in a zvz with a ling all in, but it most likely won't work because your control won't be as good (people who are low masters, and don't play much normally don't have very good control) and yeah.

I would give you .1% in zvt/zvp and 10% zvz just because there is the chance that they do something stupid and then lose to a ling all in.
When I think of something else, something will go here
Shortizz
Profile Joined July 2011
Singapore129 Posts
July 06 2013 00:35 GMT
#12
Are you talking about a live event or just a normal ladder game?

If its just a normal ladder game, it's quite possible for a master players to take a game off a Pro. I used to ladder quite abit and when I was high master than GM, i've beaten a fair share of pros. It's quite exciting in the beginning especially when they are popular streamers, I rmb popping into stream chats of forgg, idra and incontrol after I got lucky haha. After some time though, you realise it doesn't mean much unless you beat them in a live event or a tournament that matters.
jrkirby
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1510 Posts
July 06 2013 01:14 GMT
#13
Think about a gold, plat or diamond player. How many games would you have to play against them before you lost one?
Terranist
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States2496 Posts
July 06 2013 01:33 GMT
#14
you probably would have had a better chance in WoL with infestor broodlord turtling but now the gap is even bigger since good players can harass zergs better than before.
The Show of a Lifetime
ETisME
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
12385 Posts
July 06 2013 02:07 GMT
#15
I remember a diamond used a proxy robo into 4 gate immortal or 3 gate immortal all in in a pvp and almost beat a really good toss during one mlg opening
He posted a blog about it here on tl

As long as your cheese play is strong, you do have a chance within 20games
其疾如风,其徐如林,侵掠如火,不动如山,难知如阴,动如雷震。
HeeroFX
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States2704 Posts
July 06 2013 04:29 GMT
#16
I think you can beat a pro in a random ladder game with some sort of all in, but I don't think you could consistently beat them.
Fission
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada1184 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-06 04:47:34
July 06 2013 04:35 GMT
#17
I see pro players fairly often to high-ish masters players or low gm's on ladder, it's not impossible. I saw idra lose a whole bunch of games to masters terran players today, and a few games to blade5555 (who is a non-pro gm). If you try to play a greedy macro game you're not going to win, though.

I think it also really depends on the pro. If we're talking about, say, Flash or Innovation or Jangbi or Soulkey, then you will never, ever, ever, ever ,win. If we're talking about pros like Destiny, Idra, Dragon etc then your chances are significantly better.
docvoc
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States5491 Posts
July 06 2013 04:40 GMT
#18
On July 06 2013 11:07 ETisME wrote:
I remember a diamond used a proxy robo into 4 gate immortal or 3 gate immortal all in in a pvp and almost beat a really good toss during one mlg opening
He posted a blog about it here on tl

As long as your cheese play is strong, you do have a chance within 20games

I'd even say within 10. All ins can be extraordinarily strong if unscouted. I think I remember that blog . Think about it, there are guys in GM who only cannon rush or only 6 pool (or BBS back when it existed) and they beat pros with them.
User was warned for too many mimes.
Kashll
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1117 Posts
July 06 2013 04:51 GMT
#19
If you were high masters i would say anything is possible. I took rare games off "known" players at my peak (though mostly just got my face stomped).

For low masters the chance is essentially 0.
"After silence, that which comes nearest to expressing the inexpressible is music." - Aldous Huxley
ieatkids5
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
United States4628 Posts
July 06 2013 06:52 GMT
#20
vs guys like the ones you posted (idra, huk, etc)? you might have a chance. against top koreans? no way.
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