|
Hi,
We (KnowMe, Roshi and me) made predictions for MLG Anaheim Day2. We have a more numerical approach and try to work alot with probability, instead of trying to predict in absolutes.
-Lines are written down in american odds. -185 means you have to bet 185 to win 100, +157 means, you win 157 when you bet 100.
-Necessary winning percentage for breakeven is the winning percentage the player needs in order to break even on a bet on the moneyline (= betting on that player to win the match). If the player has a higher winning percentage, then betting on him has a positive expected value.
-For winning percentages and recent performance we used www.aligulac.com
-The lines can change between the point of writing and the time you read this blog
DeMusliM vs Suppy
Lines: DeMusliM -174, DeMusliM -1.5 +186 | Suppy +1.5 -221, Suppy +148
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: DeMusliM 63,5%, Suppy 40,32%
DeMusliM TvZ Winrate: 52% Suppy ZvT Winrate: 52%
Thinking about this match kinda made my head hurt. Both of them are playing for Evil Geniuses which suggests that they know each others style quite well. Considering that Suppy had two terrans in his WCS group, we can assume that they practiced a lot together. This obviously makes it pretty hard to predict their mindsets towards each other. DeMusliM has been recently doing as good in the ladder as usual. He hasn’t played many tournaments lately so it’s a bit uncertain how well prepared is he. His only recent TvZ was played at the Redbull Training Ground, where he lost 1-2 vs. Golden. Taking a map from Golden isn’t extremly impressive but its not bad either. However he only won 2-1 vs Sasquatch who just isn’t a real contender for a high place finish. In short: it is really hard to tell how strong DeMusliM’s TvZ is at the moment.
Suppy, on the other hand, won against both terrans in his WCS group and only lost 1:2 against the rising european star dayshi at Dreamhack.
While it’s still hard to tell what consequences their internal practice might have on the outcome of their match, I would agree with aligulac.com and predict that Suppy actually has a chance of at least 50% to take this, which makes a bet on him sound like a pretty good idea. Especially considering ZvT is by far his strongest matchup.
Sound vs Moonglade
Lines: Sound -185, Sound -1.5 +150 | Moonglade +1.5 -169, Moonglade +157
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: Sound 64,91%, Moonglade 38,91%
Sound TvZ Winrate: 51% Moonglade ZvT Winrate: 67%
Sound just comes from a second place finish at the Red Bull Training Grounds where he lost 2-4 against Golden in the final. He however took revenge and knocked Golden down to the loser bracket yesterday, beating him 2-0. If we take a closer look at the field of the Redbull tournament though, we will see that the competetion was not particularly strong, with Sound “only” having to beat 4 foreigners to get to the final.
Moonglade is seen has the underdog here, which is not surprising I guess. But has is actually not a very big underdog because of his good performance in the WCS NA ro16, where he beat Apocalypse 2-0 and TheStC 2-1, two koreans, who might not be top tier, but they are still korean terrans. He then proceeded to get stomped 3-0 by Ryung in the ro8 and lost 2-3 against Alicia in a close series in the minibracket for 5th place.
Personally i am considering to bet on Moonglade here, because the odds are quite good. He also has certainly proven in the past that he can take games or even matches off of korean terrans.
Stats vs Dear
Lines: Stats -140 | Dear +120
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: Stats 58,33%, Dear 45,45%
Stats PvP Winrate: 59% Dear PvP Winrate: 62%
Stats is on a 12 match winstreak right now, during which he played a good amount of PvP and had only one non-korean opponent. Due to this it is no surprise that the bookmaker sees him as the favorite, and i have to agree with this opinion. Among others he beat Rain 2-1 in the MLG KeSPA Qualifier.
Dear is also on a pretty hot streak, winning 13 of his last 15 matches, before that though he had quite a bad losing streak. His most notable PvP win was a 2-1 against JangBi, which is impressive, but not quite as impressive as Stats’ recent performance.
Overall I think the line is well set. Both played have qualified for WCS Korea Challenger. Both players managed to get through the insanely hard MLG KeSPA qualifier. But Stats’ latest matches are just a little more impressive than Dears, which is why I think its is fair to see him as a small favorite here.
Hyun vs YuGiOh
Lines: Hyun -190, -1.5 +161 | YuGiOh +161, +1.5 -190
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: Hyun 65,52%, YuGiOh 38,31%
Hyun ZvZ Winrate: 65% YuGiOh ZvZ Winrate: 61%
Right now it is pretty hard to assess how strong HyuN is. He is still farming european and north american online tournaments like crazy and he had a pretty good showing at HomeStoryCup 7 last week, where he beat most notably viOlet and MC. But then he fell short 2-3 against both Snute and TLO, which might indicate that his ZvZ is not as strong as it used to be.
With YuGiOh its even harder to tell where he is at. Funnily enough i actually had quite good success with betting on him in the past, but then he also just randomly chokes hard and fails quite badly. He managed to qualify for the Premier Divison in WCS Korea this season, then even beat Soulkey in the first match, only to lose with a 10 pool against hatchery first in the deciding match.
Everything considered, I think that HyuN is maybe seen as a bit bigger favorite than he actually is. He has shown that he can be beaten in ZvZ (even by foreigners!), and YuGiOh sometimes has random outbursts of brilliance. Overall i do agree with him being the favorite though. He has simply proven to be quite a consistent player, something YuGiOh hasnt managed to. I would however only give him about a 60% chance to win here, which means betting on YuGiOh should be marginally +EV.
SaSe vs NonY
Lines: Sase -302, -1.5 +105 | NonY +248, +1.5 -122
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: Sase 75,12%, NonY 28,74%
NonY PvP Winrate: 38% Sase PvP Winrate: 52%
This one is a tricky match. The last offical recorded results for both players are far from impressive; while NonY only managed to win one BO3 in the WCS S1 America Premier League Qualifier, and then lost his chances when he fell 1-2 against CatZ in the Challenger Qualifier. SaSe’s run was considerably longer, after a strong start placing first in his group in the Premier League, he fell to Challenger where he was able to at least secure his spot for next season. NonY’s chances to take the whole series are considerably slim (not in a Jaedong/ LzGamer kind of way but lets just say he isn’t the favorite). Nevertheless, his chances of taking a map from SaSe are looking good. The line for him to take at least one map (+1.5) is in his favor, meaning its more likely than not that it wont be a 2-0 for SaSe.
Even though we don’t have too much information to judge NonY’s current state, we’re talking about PvP (if you know what I mean), we know that he already beat 2 Protoss in the tournament (inculding what we can call a significant upset in his winning against longtime PvP star HwangSin), his PvP has never been his worst matchup (source: Aligulac), and history has taught us not to count NonY out; all these reasons make us believe that even though we have to agree SaSe comes out as a clear the clear favorite to take the series, we’re definitively expecting NonY to take a map.
Heart vs Apocalypse
Lines: Heart -132 | Apocalypse +113
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: Heart 56,9%, Apocalypse 46,95%
Heart TvT Winrate: 47% Apocalypse TvT Winrate: 51%
We pretty much have two of the “faceless” and “medicore” koreans here. Both of them have decent results when it comes to playing against foreigners, but their results against korean competetion are generally not very good.
Heart is seen as a small favorite here, and, as boring as it might sound, i gotta agree. He has definitely had more experience playing on a big stage, and he has at least had some decent finishes in tournaments, whereas Apocalypse does not have much to show. Hearts lack of results recently prevent him from being a bigger favorite here though.
You can read the rest here
|
:D love to see this stuff :D
Wondering if you could take a second to explain a bit of your odds
Lines: DeMusliM -174, DeMusliM -1.5 +186 | Suppy +1.5 -221, Suppy +148
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: DeMusliM 63,5%, Suppy 40,32%
DeMusliM TvZ Winrate: 52% Suppy ZvT Winrate: 52%
First, When you write 2 sets of odds for the player I noticed the -1.5 (the part in bold) I was just wanting to confirm my understanding. In the above line if I was to bet 100 on DeMusliM -1.5 I would win 186(plus wager) IF DeMusliM lost 2-1 correct? Expounding on that line would it be listed differently if it was a Bo5/7/9? What would it look like in each of those circumstances?
Thanks, I've never really looked to seriously at this and trying to do some betting in a notepad before I commit a couple hundred.
|
As someone who really enjoys sports gambling, this blog is great. Reading your other predictions now. Some questions:
I read today that HuK recently went 12-0 against State in a recent ladder session. Does this affect your opinion of your +197 selection?
Is there any way to parlay HerO, Jaedong, and soO winning 2-0? Otherwise, the only worthwhile thing I see there is maybe throwing a bone to Illusion and hoping he pulls out a big win. +616 is pretty generous against a guy who just flew across a major body of water.
EDIT: Happy birthday, too!
|
happy bday darkforce! thx for the odds/predictions <3
|
On June 30 2013 00:48 Gofarman wrote::D love to see this stuff :D Wondering if you could take a second to explain a bit of your odds Show nested quote +Lines: DeMusliM -174, DeMusliM -1.5 +186 | Suppy +1.5 -221, Suppy +148
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: DeMusliM 63,5%, Suppy 40,32%
DeMusliM TvZ Winrate: 52% Suppy ZvT Winrate: 52% First, When you write 2 sets of odds for the player I noticed the -1.5 (the part in bold) I was just wanting to confirm my understanding. In the above line if I was to bet 100 on DeMusliM -1.5 I would win 186(plus wager) IF DeMusliM lost 2-1 correct? Expounding on that line would it be listed differently if it was a Bo5/7/9? What would it look like in each of those circumstances? Thanks, I've never really looked to seriously at this and trying to do some betting in a notepad before I commit a couple hundred.
Not a sports better, but I think DeMuslim being -1.5 you would to bet 150 on him to win 100 (plus wager). If I am wrong on this please correct me.
Also, really cool op.
|
United States33523 Posts
the demuslim vs suppy line is the only one that seems kinda off, suppy all day :O
|
FuDDx
United States5013 Posts
Happy Birthday!!!
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/EpmPbZc.jpg)
|
On June 30 2013 00:48 Gofarman wrote::D love to see this stuff :D Wondering if you could take a second to explain a bit of your odds Show nested quote +Lines: DeMusliM -174, DeMusliM -1.5 +186 | Suppy +1.5 -221, Suppy +148
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: DeMusliM 63,5%, Suppy 40,32%
DeMusliM TvZ Winrate: 52% Suppy ZvT Winrate: 52% First, When you write 2 sets of odds for the player I noticed the -1.5 (the part in bold) I was just wanting to confirm my understanding. In the above line if I was to bet 100 on DeMusliM -1.5 I would win 186(plus wager) IF DeMusliM lost 2-1 correct? Expounding on that line would it be listed differently if it was a Bo5/7/9? What would it look like in each of those circumstances? Thanks, I've never really looked to seriously at this and trying to do some betting in a notepad before I commit a couple hundred.
You would also lose the bet if he wins 2-1, he has to win 2-0 for you to win your -1.5 bet.
In a bo5,7,9 etc the -1.5 becomes less of a handicap, so you would not get odds that are as good for it.
On June 30 2013 01:09 AgentW wrote:
As someone who really enjoys sports gambling, this blog is great. Reading your other predictions now. Some questions:
I read today that HuK recently went 12-0 against State in a recent ladder session. Does this affect your opinion of your +197 selection?
Is there any way to parlay HerO, Jaedong, and soO winning 2-0? Otherwise, the only worthwhile thing I see there is maybe throwing a bone to Illusion and hoping he pulls out a big win. +616 is pretty generous against a guy who just flew across a major body of water.
EDIT: Happy birthday, too!
Hmm, maybe a little bit. But a big losing streak on ladder can just come from having a bad day or two, or trying out some build that isnt so great after all.
There is no parlays and teasers for esports.
|
|
|
On June 30 2013 06:24 DarKFoRcE wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 00:48 Gofarman wrote::D love to see this stuff :D Wondering if you could take a second to explain a bit of your odds Lines: DeMusliM -174, DeMusliM -1.5 +186 | Suppy +1.5 -221, Suppy +148
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: DeMusliM 63,5%, Suppy 40,32%
DeMusliM TvZ Winrate: 52% Suppy ZvT Winrate: 52% First, When you write 2 sets of odds for the player I noticed the -1.5 (the part in bold) I was just wanting to confirm my understanding. In the above line if I was to bet 100 on DeMusliM -1.5 I would win 186(plus wager) IF DeMusliM lost 2-1 correct? Expounding on that line would it be listed differently if it was a Bo5/7/9? What would it look like in each of those circumstances? Thanks, I've never really looked to seriously at this and trying to do some betting in a notepad before I commit a couple hundred. You would also lose the bet if he wins 2-1, he has to win 2-0 for you to win your -1.5 bet. In a bo5,7,9 etc the -1.5 becomes less of a handicap, so you would not get odds that are as good for it. Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 01:09 AgentW wrote:
As someone who really enjoys sports gambling, this blog is great. Reading your other predictions now. Some questions:
I read today that HuK recently went 12-0 against State in a recent ladder session. Does this affect your opinion of your +197 selection?
Is there any way to parlay HerO, Jaedong, and soO winning 2-0? Otherwise, the only worthwhile thing I see there is maybe throwing a bone to Illusion and hoping he pulls out a big win. +616 is pretty generous against a guy who just flew across a major body of water.
EDIT: Happy birthday, too! Hmm, maybe a little bit. But a big losing streak on ladder can just come from having a bad day or two, or trying out some build that isnt so great after all. There is no parlays and teasers for esports.
I like the idea, but I still don't understand the +/-1.5 part. Specifically, in a bo5, 7, 9, what does it mean? Is it just that the player you're betting on will win/lose by 2 games? If so, why is it denoted +/-1.5 instead of +/-2?
|
On July 01 2013 00:45 Komentaja wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 06:24 DarKFoRcE wrote:On June 30 2013 00:48 Gofarman wrote::D love to see this stuff :D Wondering if you could take a second to explain a bit of your odds Lines: DeMusliM -174, DeMusliM -1.5 +186 | Suppy +1.5 -221, Suppy +148
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: DeMusliM 63,5%, Suppy 40,32%
DeMusliM TvZ Winrate: 52% Suppy ZvT Winrate: 52% First, When you write 2 sets of odds for the player I noticed the -1.5 (the part in bold) I was just wanting to confirm my understanding. In the above line if I was to bet 100 on DeMusliM -1.5 I would win 186(plus wager) IF DeMusliM lost 2-1 correct? Expounding on that line would it be listed differently if it was a Bo5/7/9? What would it look like in each of those circumstances? Thanks, I've never really looked to seriously at this and trying to do some betting in a notepad before I commit a couple hundred. You would also lose the bet if he wins 2-1, he has to win 2-0 for you to win your -1.5 bet. In a bo5,7,9 etc the -1.5 becomes less of a handicap, so you would not get odds that are as good for it. On June 30 2013 01:09 AgentW wrote:
As someone who really enjoys sports gambling, this blog is great. Reading your other predictions now. Some questions:
I read today that HuK recently went 12-0 against State in a recent ladder session. Does this affect your opinion of your +197 selection?
Is there any way to parlay HerO, Jaedong, and soO winning 2-0? Otherwise, the only worthwhile thing I see there is maybe throwing a bone to Illusion and hoping he pulls out a big win. +616 is pretty generous against a guy who just flew across a major body of water.
EDIT: Happy birthday, too! Hmm, maybe a little bit. But a big losing streak on ladder can just come from having a bad day or two, or trying out some build that isnt so great after all. There is no parlays and teasers for esports. I like the idea, but I still don't understand the +/-1.5 part. Specifically, in a bo5, 7, 9, what does it mean? Is it just that the player you're betting on will win/lose by 2 games? If so, why is it denoted +/-1.5 instead of +/-2?
Essentially what it means is you're betting on if the player would win the series if they started with an advantage or disadvantage of X games. Let's use Demuslim -1.5 as an example. In this case, X=1.5 and you're betting that Demuslim would win the series even if the series started with Demuslim being down by 1.5 games. So if Demuslim were to win 2-0 in the actual series, the adjusted score of the handicapped series would be 2-1.5 in favour of Demuslim. If Demuslim only won 2-1 in the series, the adjusted score with the handicap would be 2-2.5 in favour of Suppy and you would lose the bet. Conversely, betting on Suppy +1.5 would be betting that Suppy would win the series if he started with a 1.5 game lead. The reason that bookers make it 1.5 instead of 1 is so that a push cannot occur (where the adjusted score with a handicap would result in a tied series). If it was Demusilim -1 and he won the actual series 2-1, the adjusted score would be 2-2 and a push would occur.
|
On July 01 2013 01:07 Regals wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2013 00:45 Komentaja wrote:On June 30 2013 06:24 DarKFoRcE wrote:On June 30 2013 00:48 Gofarman wrote::D love to see this stuff :D Wondering if you could take a second to explain a bit of your odds Lines: DeMusliM -174, DeMusliM -1.5 +186 | Suppy +1.5 -221, Suppy +148
Necessary winning percentage for breakeven: DeMusliM 63,5%, Suppy 40,32%
DeMusliM TvZ Winrate: 52% Suppy ZvT Winrate: 52% First, When you write 2 sets of odds for the player I noticed the -1.5 (the part in bold) I was just wanting to confirm my understanding. In the above line if I was to bet 100 on DeMusliM -1.5 I would win 186(plus wager) IF DeMusliM lost 2-1 correct? Expounding on that line would it be listed differently if it was a Bo5/7/9? What would it look like in each of those circumstances? Thanks, I've never really looked to seriously at this and trying to do some betting in a notepad before I commit a couple hundred. You would also lose the bet if he wins 2-1, he has to win 2-0 for you to win your -1.5 bet. In a bo5,7,9 etc the -1.5 becomes less of a handicap, so you would not get odds that are as good for it. On June 30 2013 01:09 AgentW wrote:
As someone who really enjoys sports gambling, this blog is great. Reading your other predictions now. Some questions:
I read today that HuK recently went 12-0 against State in a recent ladder session. Does this affect your opinion of your +197 selection?
Is there any way to parlay HerO, Jaedong, and soO winning 2-0? Otherwise, the only worthwhile thing I see there is maybe throwing a bone to Illusion and hoping he pulls out a big win. +616 is pretty generous against a guy who just flew across a major body of water.
EDIT: Happy birthday, too! Hmm, maybe a little bit. But a big losing streak on ladder can just come from having a bad day or two, or trying out some build that isnt so great after all. There is no parlays and teasers for esports. I like the idea, but I still don't understand the +/-1.5 part. Specifically, in a bo5, 7, 9, what does it mean? Is it just that the player you're betting on will win/lose by 2 games? If so, why is it denoted +/-1.5 instead of +/-2? Essentially what it means is you're betting on if the player would win the series if they started with an advantage or disadvantage of X games. Let's use Demuslim -1.5 as an example. In this case, X=1.5 and you're betting that Demuslim would win the series even if the series started with Demuslim being down by 1.5 games. So if Demuslim were to win 2-0 in the actual series, the adjusted score of the handicapped series would be 2-1.5 in favour of Demuslim. If Demuslim only won 2-1 in the series, the adjusted score with the handicap would be 2-2.5 in favour of Suppy and you would lose the bet. Conversely, betting on Suppy +1.5 would be betting that Suppy would win the series if he started with a 1.5 game lead. The reason that bookers make it 1.5 instead of 1 is so that a push cannot occur (where the adjusted score with a handicap would result in a tied series). If it was Demusilim -1 and he won the actual series 2-1, the adjusted score would be 2-2 and a push would occur.
Gotcha, that makes sense to me.
|
i would like to bet on wcs eu.. but there are no bets for it? :/
wcs eu is just the one which i can comfortably watch live and where i care the most..
|
On July 03 2013 00:40 SpikeStarcraft wrote:
i would like to bet on wcs eu.. but there are no bets for it? :/
wcs eu is just the one which i can comfortably watch live and where i care the most..
there will be lines offered from the Ro16 on. I talked to pinnacle about it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
