|
So I don't blog a ton, but everyone seems to have very littler perspective and as of late, it seems people are coming out of the wood work to claim the sky is falling. So I'd like to weigh in on my years of experience within esports (largely not starcraft) to give some perspective.
First off in case you don't know me, I've been involved with SC2 largely as of late. However, I started off in esports back in the days of the late 90's in games like Counter-Strike, Quake, and eventually shifting my personal focus to doing pro gaming with the online racing crowd. Why does that all matter? because someone who hasn't focused solely on starcraft has a broader perspective on esports. It's a large reason IMO why certain teams have done well while others haven't, and why people like the DJWheats of the world have done so well for themselves.
A History Lesson
esports technically got it's start back in the 1980's did you know that? around 10,000 people would show up to watch Space Invaders played in an arcade. Eventually those arcade tournaments evolved more towards the fighting game scene, and to a lot of extent have slowly grown in popularity.
PC esports started probably around 1993 or 1994 (I'm a bit hazy on the exact date) with the release of DOOM and it's multi-player death match capabilities. This eventually grew into quake and counter-strike and I'd say culminated in the attempt at the CGS on DirecTV which due to format and being much like the Sega Saturn (to soon) died.
When this all happened people thought esports had taken a huge hit in North America and may never recover or get that big again. However, while this was all going on in North America, there had been a huge esports scene leading to the creation of KeSPA via broodwar over in south Korea. Players on TV to millions of people, making half a million a year etc.
Then in 2010 SC2 launches and with the link up in timing of streaming technology the NA/EU esports scene once again grew by leaps and bounds. Events like WCG that could barely draw 100 live viewers were replaced by 20, 25k live viewers to watch SC2 at MLG's, IPL's etc. Of course only getting to that number near the end of 2011 and early 2012.
Now of course before I end this little history tid bit, I have to mention the growth of the Moba/Dota scene with LoL and now Dota 2. That along with the revolution that riot lead in having a fully developed PC game use the more Facebook style of using micro transactions to make money. This became hugely popular with people without massive amounts of money who enjoy free content. As a result LoL and now Dota 2 have begun to garner a huge casual following, and even a larger hardcore following them some other games.
So is SC2 going to die, where are things now?
First off, I think it's a fallacy that stream viewership and live event viewership has dropped off. They are all still steadily growing, but the amount of content available (the supply) has now surpassed the demand. With so many different things available to watch the market is over saturated and people who saw a boom in 2010 into 2011 are now seeing a decline. Not because the market is dieing, but because there is now more competition then ever.
Streaming was not easy to do for most people in 2010 or even for part of 2011, really up until the advent of Xsplit and twitchTV your options were limited. As such those who did stream and could stream saw huge numbers as they had a limited Supply with a huge demand. Once Xsplit and TwitchTV became a reality, this changed. The supply grew by leaps and bounds, the demand began to taper off it's growth, and the market became over saturated with supply vs the demand. So people who were super successful in fall of 2010 and the early 2011's started to see a decrease in viewership as they had to now fight harder then ever before for the viewers.
Likewise in the league scene it went from GomTV and MLG back in 2010 to over time IPL, NASL, Dremhack, IEM, HSC, and numerous smaller scale events being added. As such in this market the supply out grew the demand, and now leagues are having to rethink and evolve to compete.
However, now we have people coming out of to proclaim SC2 dead or dieing. The reality is it's not, there has been about 4 million people world wide playing SC2 for some time now. The reality is SC2 hit an equilibrium in players and viewership. Along with the rise of LoL and Dota 2, heck even the recent release of the new WoW expansion there is more and more things to watch and the viewership of streams has slowed down in growth from the boom in 2011. So peoples attention is now more divided then it ever was in 2010 and early 2011 when really the only thing on was SC2.
Why just watch Destiny, Idra, or Day9, when you can now watch a pleathura of players, and tournaments etc. There is just so much interesting content to choose from you aren't stuck watching the same ole 6 or 7 well put together streams that used to be around.
So How Do We Pass the Plateau?
Well if I 100% had that answer or anyone did for that matter, they'd be doing it, or are working on doing it. The fact of the matter is SC2 may only slowly grow or not grow from here, but esports is still growing all be it slower then in 2011. HoTS or adjustments by Leagues will either reinvigorate the SC2 scene or it won't. However, I think we are far far far to early along in the development of the scene (only 2 years) to proclaim it dead or dieing.
That won't stop the people who used to see larger viewership numbers who saw a decrease with the increase in supply from claiming it to be dieing off. I'm just giving fair perspective that the reality is there is just more competition then ever. Not just within SC2 but outside of SC2 and streamers will have to get smarter, more innovative, and more entertaining to garner numbers they had in 2010/2011.
At the end of the day this is normal for a growing market. You have early innovators who stumble upon or help to initially grow a scene, the market grows to a point of super saturation. Then those who can't continue to innovate and grow die off. The market then finds a new equilibrium and grows at a more controlled pace. Case in point a Destiny vs. a Day 9, you don't see Day 9 claiming SC2 is about to die, but you do see Destiny saying it. Why? Day 9 has continued to grow and innovate and he's doing better then ever. Destiny stagnated and lost a lot of his initial viewership and is suffering the fate of people who stagnate. So he talks about needing someone else to fix this when the reality is he needs to figure out how to fix it himself.
So What About Korea?
So I can't close without mentioning South Korea or people will just point at it and go see death!!!! I would however counter someone pointing out SC2's lack of popularity comparitively to broodwar and say...'So What?'
The growth or decline of SC2 doesn't not solely hinge on it's success in South Korea. If that were the case games like Doom, Quake, Counter-Strike, etc. would never have become as popular of esports as they did. SC2 has been arguably hundreds of times more popular in the NA and EU scene then broodwar ever was or will be. So in my opinion if Asia and South Korea go the LoL or Dota 2 route exclusively let them. That doesn't mean anything for the NA and EU markets as far as SC2 goes unless the people in those markets decide otherwise.
The success or failure of a game within any market is up to the people in that market. It's highly likely that in Asia with how generally poor the average person is there, that a freemium game like LoL or Dota 2 will rule all. That doesn't mean SC2 will die, or that it has to go freemium to survive, all it means is SC2 probably won't do as well in the Asian market as broodwar did, which in case you don't know, was essentially a freemium game in itself when it got insanely popular in the Asian market (see piracy + lan mode).
Closing
I can't say this whole thing isn't in some part opinion, but I can say that what I've seen from SC2 so far is that even if it never grows anymore in the NA/EU scene, it will still be hundreds of times more popular then BW ever was in the NA/EU scene. I however, am of the mindset that SC2 will continue to have a following and grow in NA/EU, and if people want to abandon ship go for it. It just will make the market less saturated and better for everyone who decides to stay.
Add ons via discussion / current events, also glad the majority enjoyed the read 
A few points I see coming up in replies..
On Broodwar: First off, arguing about what BW did or didn't do for SC2 at this point is largely irrelevant. With the switch of KeSPA BW is more or less done, and so is the competition between BW and SC2. From this point out SC2 will stand on it's own merits and what BW did or didn't do for it is in the past. People will still draw comparisons because that's what people do, but it won't matter much for SC2 and it's success or failure. SC2 is either going to sink or swim on it's own merits, and how the peoples take to the changes blizzard makes over the next 2 expansions.
On Korea: KeSPA JUST switched over (as in no more BW) within the last few months and their players are getting 100% up to speed in SC2. I would argue part of what hurt SC2 in Korea was the divide when KeSPA initially stayed with BW for the first 2ish years after SC2 released. Now that everyone in the Korean pro scene is playing the same game, there is a lot of potential SC2 can start to thrive better in Korea. Of course this is not a given, but the divide created a lot of question marks about is SC2 worth watching in Korea? Also as I previously stated below (in a reply) BW never had the esports following in the NA/EU markets that SC2 has, so even if SC2 doesn't make it to the BW standard in Korea it's not guaranteed to be the end of the world for sure.
On SC2 Pros 'leaving': Everyone has been talking about how with massive prize pools why wouldn't pros leave for LoL or Dota 2 etc. The answer to that is simple and this is coming from a guy who tried to switch from doing online racing Pro (made a few grand a year my best years) to SC2 at the SC2 launch because I saw SC2 being MUCH bigger (making no money now if your curious). If you are at least doing 'ok' with one game, switching to another genre entirely is a risk. There is 100% no guarantee you will switch and still do as well as you are doing now. I maybe lost a couple thousand bucks a year, but for most higher up SC2 players your talking tens of thousands of dollars they risk by trying to switch genre's/games. So this mass exodus that people are clambering about I find unlikely except for players who have been far less successful and are more replaceable (though not 100% entirely so).
Real World Example From Above: Michael Jordan...he was a basketball god, he tried to go play baseball and was mediocre at best. So he went back to basketball, because it was what he did well, and his athleticism didn't transition well enough. I would suspect it'd be much the same for an SC2 player; as such if you are doing decent in SC2 there is absolutely no good reason to switch to an entirely different game/genre and become irrelevant or mediocre. I would suspect those who do try to switch if they go the route of MJ, they'll likely be back.
On SC2 and $$$$ for Blizzard: As far as I'm aware SC2 Development costs are still higher then the sales they have had (at least this was the case early 2011). Does that mean blizzard doesn't want to make SC2 overall after expansion sales profitable, no of course it doesn't. What it does mean is that blizzard doesn't absolutely 'have' to make changes to SC2 solely to make money off it. WoW more or less gives them ability to develop SC2 however they see fit and if it never makes money they'll still keep developing the game through LotV. So I don't think it'd be entirely accurate to say Blizzard will tailor changes to SC2 based 100% on just making money off the game. If that's all they cared about after the initial sales they'd of cancelled making HotS and LotV and moved on to a new game, or focused on 'Titan' alone.
On HoTS content viewership: People are not seeing huge increases in viewership for HoTS for a few reasons...
1. Most casual fans either just watch the competitive scene, or don't watch and don't ladder, they play custom UMS games (marine arena, nexus wars, etc.) Right now there is not a lot of HoTS content that is relevant to the competitive scene or to the custom games scene. As such people don't have a huge need for that content, compared to not having any SC2 and craving SC2 anything during the SC2 beta days.
2. Those who do ladder and care about how they play, are still playing WoL, and as such care a lot less about what will make them good in HoTS. There is some interest there for people who care about the future of the competitive scene, but it's far far far less people then those that cared prior to the launch of WoL.
3. HoTS content is 'to soon': Right now nobody even knows when for sure the game will release. We know that it will for sure release sometime before 2013 ends, but we don't know when. So right now because of the above HoTS content isn't in demand yet. Come 1 to 2 months give or take before an announced release date of HoTS I believe you'll see the demand for HoTS content go way way up.
 
|
Case in point a Destiny vs. a Day 9, you don't see Day 9 claiming SC2 is about to die, but you do see Destiny saying it. Why? Day 9 has continued to grow and innovate and he's doing better then ever. Destiny stagnated and lost a lot of his initial viewership and is suffering the fate of people who stagnate. So he rants about needing someone else to fix this when the reality is he needs to figure out how to fix it himself.
This was my favorite part.
If there has to be a movement by the community to "fix" SC2, Destiny is probably one of the worst choices for someone to lead it.
If anything is "killing SC2," it's the community.
|
SC2 in Korea is important because that is where the most prestigious tournaments are, with the best players. If SC2 is relegated to foreigners who have far less skill than the Korean pros, the scene SHOULD die because it has become a farce - the best players are no longer competing, the best games are no longer being provided, and thus the essence of a competitive game is lost. It is only because of nationalism that people root for players who are bad (relatively speaking) as opposed to rooting for players who have the best play regardless of nationality. People whining about Koreans winning everything are detrimental to the competitive environment.
|
Long Live ESPORTS! Never Give Up Never Surrender!
|
|
|
Good blog post. I agree, especially with the destiny and day9 bit. I hardly watch destiny anymore because he doesn't entertain anymore. IMO destiny thinks people watch him because he is a "pro" when in reality he is not even that good. People watched him for his BM and hilariousness.
|
10387 Posts
SC2 is only where it is today because of the name "Starcraft". Broodwar built the foundation for SC2 and SC2 pretty much is screwing it up.
SC2 wouldn't even be semi-relevant today if it weren't for BW
|
I was about to write this same blog, except with only 2 years of perspective >.<. Thanks for having some common sense. TL, reddit and twitter have become fucking horrible to read for the last few days with people going on about starcraft dying. Can they be any stupider?
Thanks for giving me something worthwhile to read
|
On October 18 2012 03:39 ArvickHero wrote:
SC2 is only where it is today because of the name "Starcraft". Broodwar built the foundation for SC2 and SC2 pretty much is screwing it up.
SC2 wouldn't even be semi-relevant today if it weren't for BW
GG
|
On October 18 2012 02:12 Jealous wrote:
SC2 in Korea is important because that is where the most prestigious tournaments are, with the best players. If SC2 is relegated to foreigners who have far less skill than the Korean pros, the scene SHOULD die because it has become a farce - the best players are no longer competing, the best games are no longer being provided, and thus the essence of a competitive game is lost. It is only because of nationalism that people root for players who are bad (relatively speaking) as opposed to rooting for players who have the best play regardless of nationality. People whining about Koreans winning everything are detrimental to the competitive environment.
In the world of starcraft nobody would argue that the best players were, and arguably are (aside from stephano maybe) players who came out of the gaming houses in Korea.
I would argue that it's unlikely you'd see every korean player drop out of SC2 and join LoL or Dota, the point I was making is that if SC2 has a smaller following in Korea then BW did, that it's not the end of the world. BW hinged on korea keeping it alive because the NA/EU markets simply were not. SC2 on the other hand has done worlds better in NA/EU markets and it's survival does not solely hinge on it being the most popular game in korea. If anything with SC2 it's quite the opposite, in many ways the korean scene has hinged on the games popularity in the US/EU because of it's lack of popularity in korea compared to how BW was. Largely due to the lack of funding most korean SC2 teams have had to deal with compared to their BW counterparts, see the slow but sure death of slayers (though i'd argue with slayers there was a lot of bad PR that didn't help).
We've also just seen the transition of the KeSPA players to SC2 and who knows how that will pan out. It's highly likely and probable between KeSPA switching to SC2 and the release of HoTS so long as blizzard doesn't completely destroy the game that you'll see better growth in 2013 after relative stagnation in 2012. Assuming of course everyone who believes december whatever 2012 the sky is really going to fall are not right.
|
A sobering blog for all those reactionary naysayers out there. 5/5 partly because I don't see enough of this calming and rational stuff. Even threads and blogs that start out rational and calming usually end up making some bold claim that x will fix the game or y will cause 500% faster growth etc.
Well Done
Edited for spelling...
|
|
|
On October 18 2012 03:44 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 03:39 ArvickHero wrote:
SC2 is only where it is today because of the name "Starcraft". Broodwar built the foundation for SC2 and SC2 pretty much is screwing it up.
SC2 wouldn't even be semi-relevant today if it weren't for BW GG
Oh get over yourself already, broodwar wouldn´t have survived as long as sc2 will extend it.
Sc2 internationally was: A bunch of basement basement dwellers with a laughable esportscene.
Sc2 Changed all that, we have enormous prizepool - top people are making mad cash in tournaments, enormous amount of tournaments (Which mean good competition) opportunities for players in every continent to go big.
Yes it might be going bad not optimally, but it the pasture sure as hell are green in the world, and give korea time, they just shifted over.
Get over yourself, broodwar was supported by the government and pushed to it´s limits, where stories can grow around it.
And thus we just need to push for it the same way.
Why people are a little dulled currently is because there are no stories around, you can have enormous tournament saturation if you have passion along with it.
A lot is also that the mystery of koreans are gone, gone, dead and gone. Before no one really knew about them. They were this mysterious, godly force. And now they are just drama teenagers just like foreigners (Surprise surprise, when most are teenagers)
Brakeout of unknowns: Tsl3 - Nani, Thorzain, IPl - Scarlett
Foreigners vs Koreans: MLG - Idra vs MC, Slayers etc. Nasl - Stephano vs koreans, Nerchio vs MC homestorycup.
Foreigners vs Foreigners: Blizzcon qualfier - Select vs Seth, Ret vs Thorzain
Relaxation: Homestorycup
Resurgence:
Giuangzho, asug rog - Idra
Spanish brothers - Lucifron, vortix
Rivalries: Huk Vs Idra, Stephano Vs Polt, Drg vs MMA
Best Vs the Best
Drg Vs MMA
MvP
Nestea
We are in a period with nothing happening, people whine about ''oversaturation'', the reason people whine, is because there are no tournaments going right now that has stories. And maybe you have to blame the players for that.
But really you can only blame the audience for that.
The vindication of players, the witch-hunts, the hate THE MOMENT someone loses a tournament or a game - the player is all of a sudden in a slump and is terrible, I hate online-esport, it´s godawful.
But offline we are in such a fantastic place. We have a truly fun and great environment where players truly can feel a sense of chance for success, and people can come together to enjoy seeing that.
TL:DR: Sc2 is relevant because you have to make sc1 to make sc2; Sc2 is relevant in it´s MAGNITUDE thanks to sc2, and sc2 alone.
|
"SC2 is relevant to it´s magnitude because SC2;that it itself IS relevant is a moronic statement in it´s obviousness as one comes after the another."
I would give you a thought-out response but I don't understand almost a single thing you tried to say. Read the above sentence and tell me that it makes sense to you, REALLY.
|
On October 18 2012 04:58 Jealous wrote:
"SC2 is relevant to it´s magnitude because SC2;that it itself IS relevant is a moronic statement in it´s obviousness as one comes after the another."
I would give you a thought-out response but I don't understand almost a single thing you tried to say. Read the above sentence and tell me that it makes sense to you, REALLY.
The part was already edited before you even began to write.
|
United States10143 Posts
On October 18 2012 04:55 Facultyadjutant wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 03:44 Jealous wrote:On October 18 2012 03:39 ArvickHero wrote:
SC2 is only where it is today because of the name "Starcraft". Broodwar built the foundation for SC2 and SC2 pretty much is screwing it up.
SC2 wouldn't even be semi-relevant today if it weren't for BW GG Oh get over yourself already, broodwar wouldn´t have survived as long as sc2 will extend it. Sc2 internationally was: A bunch of basement basement dwellers with a laughable esportscene. Sc2 Changed all that, we have enormous prizepool - top people are making mad cash in tournaments, enormous amount of tournaments (Which mean good competition) opportunities for players in every continent to go big. Get over yourself, broodwar was supported by the government and pushed to it´s limits, where stories can grow around it. Relaxation: Homestorycup Resurgence: Giuangzho, asug rog - Idra Spanish brothers - Lucifron, vortix Rivalries: Huk Vs Idra, Stephano Vs Polt, Drg vs MMA Best Vs the Best Drg Vs MMA MvP Nestea
first part: really? "get over yourself" wtf? i dont... ok. w.e.
second part: ok ready? im going to crush everything you have there...
Relaxation: All-Stars, Blizzcon, Shinhan Bank Inv, Skins/superfight
Brothers: YelloW[arnc] and Luxury
Rivalries: savior vs basically any protoss (ra and bisu), flash vs any protoss (stork, bisu, best), flash vs jaedong, flash vs fantasy, savior vs firebathero... im sure there are still like a billion more, but these are the big ones off the top of my head.
Best vs Best: Flash vs Jaedong. your argument is now completely invalid.
GG
|
The bubble has officially popped.
|
@Facultyadjutant: So SC2 has huge prize pools, but guess what? Top players like Flash or JD make more than your dad will ever make. Do you realize that in professional BW there were salaries and not flashy top prize pools? Prize pool was only the addition to the prestige, the most important factor in this competitive game.
And I agree with Arvick Hero, SC2's only standing chance was it had the word "Starcraft" in it. Call it Space Wars and I would have believed it, because it sure is fucking up in terms of being a huge "ESPORT"
Give me a break, BW would have died? Strategies were STILL evolving...many examples: TvZ late game mech switch, Fantasy possibly overthrowing Flash as the #1 Terran of all time (now we'll never know), Science vessels being used in TvT as shown in the last OSL TvT finals, etc...
|
On October 18 2012 04:55 Facultyadjutant wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 03:44 Jealous wrote:On October 18 2012 03:39 ArvickHero wrote:
SC2 is only where it is today because of the name "Starcraft". Broodwar built the foundation for SC2 and SC2 pretty much is screwing it up.
SC2 wouldn't even be semi-relevant today if it weren't for BW GG Oh get over yourself already, broodwar wouldn´t have survived as long as sc2 will extend it. Sc2 internationally was: A bunch of basement basement dwellers with a laughable esportscene.
SC2 didn’t extend BW's lifespan in any way. On the contrary, Blizzards lawsuits, the hybrid proleague and the switch that forced all BW players to start playing SC2 killed the scene. Yes, BW was not as popular as it was a couple of years ago, but still far from dead. Now we will never know how long the scene would have lasted thanks to SC2. Also, you are right about the international BW scene – it was very underdeveloped and unprofessional. However, the height of the Korean BW scene makes SC2 look like a “laughable esport scene”.
Sc2 Changed all that, we have enormous prizepool - top people are making mad cash in tournaments, enormous amount of tournaments (Which mean good competition) opportunities for players in every continent to go big.
I think you are very clueless about the amount of money invested in the BW scene. Big prizepools are nice and all, but it is the salaries that creates stability in the scene. Luckily the KeSPA teams still got this thanks to the established infrastructure of the BW era. KeSPA teams make ESF teams look like a joke.
Yes it might be going bad not optimally, but it the pasture sure as hell are green in the world, and give korea time, they just shifted over.
Get over yourself, broodwar was supported by the government and pushed to it´s limits, where stories can grow around it.
LOL, the fact that BW was supported by the Korean government demonstrates what a phenomenon BW really was. Also, BW stories were created by players and interesting gameplay, not by the government.
Why people are a little dulled currently is because there are no stories around, you can have enormous tournament saturation if you have passion along with it.
This might be true. Or it could be related to generic units and the lack of a dynamic gameplay.
A lot is also that the mystery of koreans are gone, gone, dead and gone. Before no one really knew about them. They were this mysterious, godly force. And now they are just drama teenagers just like foreigners (Surprise surprise, when most are teenagers)
The increased accessibility of the Korean scene should really improve the popularity of SC2 since it makes it a lot easier for casual viewers to keep up with the scene. In the beginning of the BW era, there were no extensive media coverage or English casters and VODs were much harder to find. SC2 fans get everything served on a silver plate.
Brakeout of unknowns: Tsl3 - Nani, Thorzain, IPl - Scarlett
Foreigners vs Koreans: MLG - Idra vs MC, Slayers etc. Nasl - Stephano vs koreans, Nerchio vs MC homestorycup.
Foreigners vs Foreigners: Blizzcon qualfier - Select vs Seth, Ret vs Thorzain
Relaxation: Homestorycup
Resurgence:
Giuangzho, asug rog - Idra
Spanish brothers - Lucifron, vortix
Rivalries: Huk Vs Idra, Stephano Vs Polt, Drg vs MMA
Best Vs the Best
Drg Vs MMA
MvP
Nestea
This is completely unrelated to the topic and makes no sense what so ever.
We are in a period with nothing happening, people whine about ''oversaturation'', the reason people whine, is because there are no tournaments going right now that has stories. And maybe you have to blame the players for that.
But really you can only blame the audience for that.
Are you seriously blaming the audience for not liking the game..?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
