EPT![[image loading]](http://img.gomtv.net/imgdata/43201.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/7016/ro16groups.png)
Welcome to the the toughest GSL Ro16. With talent like this, I feel sorry for anyone who has been trying to get in the liquibet top ten, as Code S has been pretty crazy so far. These four groups are stacked, and with the new Code S format, anything can happen. Will the Artosis curse continue? Will MKP get second place again? Nobody knows. One thing is for certain though: If you love Starcraft 2, don't miss out on the games in the Hot6ix GSL S1 Ro16.
Group A – The Three Little Pigs and the Big Bad MVP
IMMVP - aLive - FXOGuMiho - 
ST_Curious
![[image loading]](http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/1286/groupnominationmvp.jpg)
Just as planned.
IMMVP - aLive - FXOGuMiho - ST_Curious Just as planned.
Gumiho, Curious, and Alive sure are kicking themselves after the group nomination. I think it’s a bit of a stretch to say that MVP planned on having the three easiest players in his Ro16 group, but at the end of the group selection it is fair to say MVP was the only one laughing. MVP knew Gumiho would pick a zerg, and MVP’s predictions came true as Gumiho picked Curious. Curious then played right into MVP’s hands and picked Alive for the last spot in the group, as Curious was seeking revenge for Alive knocking him down into Code A in GSL November Code S.
Even putting aside the fact that Gumiho, Curious, and Alive are arguably the weakest three players in the entire Ro16, the real story is that MVP doesn’t have to prep for a new matchup. Other than a few matches (which he won) against MC and Hero in the Blizzard cup and WCG 2011, MVP has only played against zergs and terrans since GSL August. MVP is more than prepared for this group already, and the players in his group can hardly be called fair competition for him anyways.
The first match will be MVP versus Gumiho, and you can count on Gumiho being knocked down a set by MVP. Gumiho’s signature style has always been his high-aggression multi-pronged attacks, but safe and methodical play can defeat aggression in TvT, and MVP has learned a thing or two since his losses to MMA. The pressure will be on Gumiho to prove his full potential in this group, and that pressure will most likely cause Gumiho to make mistakes that MVP will capitalize on.
While MVP’s games will be easy to predict, it’s harder to guess who’s going to take the second spot out of the group as the rest of the players in the group have had spotty performances recently. However, as long as Alive focuses in his games, he should beat Curious in the second set and be in a good position to make it out of the group. If Curious has to play Gumiho, it’s also a safe bet to pick Gumiho over Curious thanks to Gumiho’s comfort in TvZ.
![[image loading]](http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/78/ro16previewcuriousalive.jpg)
No Curious, that’s not how you use brood lords.
Briefly going with my poorly chosen analogy, Curious is the pig that built his house from straw. Curious currently has a really bad habit of counter attacking and picking engagements at the wrong time. Curious nearly gave away game two versus Bomber in the Ro32 due to an ill-advised counter attack that did nothing, and in the GSL November Code S Ro32 Curious threw away his match versus Alive by recklessly leaving his brood lords undefended.
I don’t think this season is the time for Curious to break out and shine. While his losses versus TheStC and Alive have been in the relatively distant past, even in the recently in the Ro32 this season Curious has not looked very convincing. Curious has the intelligence and the mechanics to excel, but as long as he continues leaving his units out of position or sacrificing his units in poor attacks, Alive and Gumiho should be able to pick him apart and knock him out of the group.
As for Alive versus Gumiho, Alive should also do well versus Gumiho. They both have similar TvT win percentages, but Gumiho is famously weak in the matchup and hasn’t been doing well recently. Alive showed a good grasp on the tempo of TvT in his games versus Happy in the Ro32, and there’s no doubt that he understands the mirror matchup better than Gumiho does. Alive might be the last pig that build house of brick and give the
Predictions
+ Show Spoiler +
Advancing to the Ro8 – MVP, Alive
Not Advancing to the Ro8 – Gumiho, Curious
Not Advancing to the Ro8 – Gumiho, Curious
Group B – Good Luck Making Predictions For This Group
SlayerS_MMA - 
SlayerS_Puzzle - FXOz - oGsSuperNoVa
![[image loading]](http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/3413/ro16previewmmaoz.jpg)
Rematch of the team aces.
SlayerS_MMA - SlayerS_Puzzle - FXOz - oGsSuperNoVaRematch of the team aces.
While MVP has gotten himself a relatively easy group, MMA is probably kicking himself for not attending the Ro16 group selection and letting Coach Ryu pick for him. Coach Ryu has done what all good coaches do by forcing MMA to directly deal with his weakness, but will MMA be able to overcome his weakness by beating Oz and Puzzle? It’s impossible to say for sure.
Recently MMA has beaten Mil.Feast in IEM Kiev and FXOz in the recent GSTL preliminary matches, but it’s impossible to use them as indisputable proof that MMA will make it out of Group B unscathed. Even if MMA can get through Oz, he still might have to play a very dangerous Puzzle to make it out of the group. Puzzle has a more diverse technical playstyle whereas Oz tends to favor upgrade heavy gateway-based forces backed with templars, so it’s going to be hard for MMA to prepare for everything that both protosses can throw at him in this group. To throw another wrench into MMA’s championship plans, Supernova is also a very strong TvT player that has the potential to take games off of MMA.
Despite the odds and MMA’s overall poor TvP stats I think he’ll still make it out of the group. If you look closely at the games MMA played against Oz in the GSL November Ro8, the series was much closer than some people remember. MMA lost the series as he let Oz get better army positioning in crucial matches, but he always got the advantage when he used his superior multi-tasking to force Oz to make poor decisions. MMA doesn’t like making the same mistakes twice, and you can count on MMA being more aggressive versus Oz this time around.
I’m counting on MMA’s champion mindset and his unshakeable control to knock Oz down in the first match. Once he’s past Oz, MMA will have some breathing room against Puzzle and Supernova, and he should make it out of the group. Both Puzzle and Supernova are threats to MMA, but Oz is definitely MMA’s biggest hurdle as MMA is theoretically more than a match for Puzzle and Supernova. Supernova will have to play the best TvT of his life to upset MMA, and it’s impossible to tell if that will happen since Supernova hasn’t faced a strong TvT player since losing to MVP in the WCG 2011 Korean qualifiers.
![[image loading]](http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/4125/ro16previewsupernova.jpg)
Supernova’s bread and butter TvP build.
Even though he might not be able to beat MMA, Supernova also should make it out of this group as well. Supernova does not have a history of taking down elite protosses, but given his display of deadly 1/1/1 all-ins he showed against MC in the Ro32, it’s tough to see Oz and Puzzle beating him. Supernova is also fully capable of an aggressive TvP that’s backed up with his intelligent understanding of the matchup, and he loves to exploit the complacency of his protoss opponents with mind-games and timing pushes.
In Supernova’s second game versus Squirtle in the GSL November Code A Ro32, Supernova hid his second barracks and pushed out with concussive shell pressure to deny Squirtle scouting his 1/1/1 follow-up until it was too late. Versus oGsVines in the earlier same season in the Ro48, Supernova saw how greedy Vines was with his tech and used the opportunity to drop and harass with banshees constantly, keeping Vines’s economy low while he took a quick third, eventually taking the game by hitting before Vine’s colossi could hit the field.
![[image loading]](http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/3590/ro16previewoznada.jpg)
There’s no denying that Nada gave Oz a freebie here.
I admit that Oz could easily advance over Supernova and even MMA. Oz is an intelligent player, and he always punishes his opponents with great tactical decision making. In his GSL November Code S run, he punished Nada, Taeja, Happy, and MMA for over-extending their armies. However, in reviewing those games I find it hard to fully give credit to Oz for forcing crucial errors from Nada, Taeja, and Happy. Nada had his army encircled by literally running his bio-ball into the middle of Oz’s army, Taeja didn’t scout for Oz’s superior army position, and Happy made a questionable choice to attack Oz’s one-gate expand on Daybreak with a poorly-hidden three-barracks marine push with no upgrades.
I am not trying to diminish the importance of Oz’s victories in the GSL November Ro32 and Ro16 as Oz made few if any mistakes in all of those games. Oz will punish Supernova and MMA if their focus wavers for the slightest moment. But to advance past the Ro16 Oz cannot rely on his opponents to make mistakes, and his poor TvT record before GSL November indicates that he won’t be able to go the extra mile if Supernova and MMA continue play at the level they have showed so far this season.
As for Puzzle, unfortunately he looks like the weakest in the group. His victories in the Ro32 were impressive, as he easily defeated Keen and Nada, but he’s going up against much tougher terrans this time around. Puzzle is still very dangerous, but Oz is arguably has the more well-rounded PvT style, not to mention that Oz will most likely take out Puzzle if they meet in a PvP. As I have briefly discussed before, Puzzle is still prone to making mistakes, and unfortunately he is stuck in a group where the slightest error can be fatal.
I’ve spent 909 words trying to predict the outcome of this group, but Oz and Puzzle could easily end up advancing out of the group. The skill gap between players in Group B is paper thin, and everyone has momentum going into this group. Much of the outcome of this group will depend on who is the most prepared, the most focused, and the most active. This will be the most exciting group to watch, and that’s saying a lot in a Ro16 packed with established names and superb talent.
Predictions
+ Show Spoiler +
Advancing to the Ro8 – MMA, Supernova
Not Advancing to the Ro8 – Oz, Puzzle
Not Advancing to the Ro8 – Oz, Puzzle
Group C – Group of Champions
SK_MC - NSHoSeo_Jjakji - SlayerS_GanZi - ST_Parting
![[image loading]](http://img803.imageshack.us/img803/1116/ro16previewmc.jpg)
The boss-toss himself.
SK_MC - NSHoSeo_Jjakji - SlayerS_GanZi - ST_PartingThe boss-toss himself.
Poor Ganzi. It looks like he’ll have to continue living in MMA’s shadow this season, as he probably won’t be making it out of this group. While MMA has proven recently in IEM Kiev and in the GSTL against FXOz that his TvP is no joke, Ganzi hasn’t had any recent TvP results. Looking at his losses to Puzzle and MC in GSL November Code S, Ganzi isn’t as terrible in the matchup as his poor TvP statistics would suggest, it’s just that his decision making shows a lack of experience versus protoss. Ganzi has plenty of time to prepare for the group, so he’ll undoubtedly show an improved TvP by the time the Ro16 rolls around.
But it doesn’t change the fact that MC still has his number.
![[image loading]](http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/1708/ro16previewmcfin.jpg)
MC makes a tactical victory looks easy against ForGG.
Ganzi will try to sneak in some unusual builds to throw MC off, but MC has defeated Ganzi before, and will two-base his way to victory. With MC’s advantage in experience and tactical prowess, Ganzi is at a decisive disadvantage from the start. In MC’s one victory over Supernova on Daybreak, he baited Supernova’s raven to drop an early PDD that gave MC the advantage to push forward and take the game. In MC’s second game against ForGG, he positioned part of his army to encircle ForGG’s army as it came in to pressure MC’s third, securing an supply advantage that he used to destroy ForGG’s third expansion and take the game. With MC’s amazing map awareness and precise builds, MC is not someone Ganzi can beat at this time.
If there is one player that can crack MC though, it is definitely Jjakji. Both MC and Parting took down strong TvP players on their way to the Ro16 this season, but none of those terrans are anywhere as scary in the matchup as Jjakji is. Jjakji isn’t flashy with his PvT, instead using his diverse library of well-planned builds and knowledge of the timings to pick his protoss opponents apart.
![[image loading]](http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/459/ro16jjakji.jpg)
Check out those stats.
Jjakji made Puzzle look downright foolish in the GSL November Code S Ro8, and shortly afterward proceed to beat Oz in the Ro4. Whether it was superbly responding to Puzzle’s four-gate on Bel’shire Beach in the last match of their Ro8 series or hitting Oz before storm finished with a +1 attack timing on the same map in the Ro4, Jjakji didn’t miss a beat regardless of the situation. Even Jjaki’s losses to Oz were due to the metagaming that was going on in the series, as Oz’s smart proxy two-gate on Tal’Darim Altar and Oz’s unusual two-base push on Calm Before the Storm were automatic build order losses for Jjakji.
Looking at the other protoss in the group, on paper Parting seemingly has a good opportunity to make it out of the group. His PvT record is superb, having took out Nada in the Ro32, and his PvP record so far has also been great as well. While Parting might be able to dominate Ganzi, MC and Jjakji are two experienced champions that Parting won’t be able to defeat. MC has a superb
The only thing that could possibly put Jjakji’s Code S run in jeopardy is if he somehow finds himself going up against Ganzi. In the Ro32 Ganzi made Jjakji look downright foolish by picking Jjakji apart with his superior TvT. If Jjakji meets Ganzi in the loser’s match, then the odds are stacked against Jjakji. For Jjakji and Ganzi to meet though, it will take an upset with either Ganzi defeating one of the protoss in the group, or Parting defeating Jjakji, and the chances for that to happen are pretty low.
Predictions
+ Show Spoiler +
Advancing to the Ro8 – Jjakji, MC
Not advancing to the Ro8 – Ganzi, Parting
Not advancing to the Ro8 – Ganzi, Parting
Group D – Rise of Team MVP
MarineKingPrime - MVPDongRaeGu - MVPGenius - IMNestea
![[image loading]](http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/2430/ro16previewdrg.jpg)
Picked by a two-time GSL champion in group selection? No worries, just laugh like DRG.
MarineKingPrime - MVPDongRaeGu - MVPGenius - IMNesteaPicked by a two-time GSL champion in group selection? No worries, just laugh like DRG.
On February 9th, the much-anticipated match between Nestea and DRG will take place to determine who deserves the King of Zerg crown. It is the showdown between the two highly skilled and most decorated zergs in the GSL, and it will be a battle of the generations as the experienced Nestea seeks to retain his throne against the brash younger challenger DRG.
Unfortunately for Nestea, it does not look like he will be the victor in this showdown. Nestea has taken down many zergs in the past, but none of them have had the same intelligence, instincts, and raw skill that DRG has. Nestea will no longer be the one with a distinct advantage in intelligence and understanding of the matchup, as DRG is arguably on par with Nestea in these departments. DRG showed off in the King of Kong tournament his ZvZ prowess, absolutely demolishing Losira in four games.
Nestea has been out-microed and beaten by younger zergs before, as BBoongBBoong proved in the WCG Korean qualifiers and Leenock showed in the Blizzard Cup group Ro16. DRG has every single quality he needs to defeat Nestea, and his strong performance in the Ro32 showed that he is still just as ruthless and sharp as he was in the King of Kong tournament. For Nestea, the real question is not if he can beat DRG, but whether he can make it to the Ro8.
![[image loading]](http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/458/ro16previewgenius.jpg)
Nestea and DRG will need more than roaches and queens to hold off Genius with forcefields like these.
To add to Nestea’s problems, Genius has been on fire recently, not only making it out of his Ro32 group first, but defeating DRG in dominating macro games. Before this season, Genius has never really been known for his stellar PvZ, but Genius has broken out this season and shown how badly he wants a GSL championship. Against DRG, Genius not only showed the ability to execute strategies that DRG had trouble dealing with, but he also was constantly active with positioning his units to defend DRG’s attempted counter attacks. Nestea has an amazing ZvP record, but none of his past protoss opponents can attempt to match Genius’ current level of play. Nestea has his work cut out for him if he does go up against Genius, and I predict Nestea will fall.
In a tournament, sometimes the one player that has the strongest desire to win will end up taking the gold, and so far no one else in the Ro16 has displayed the same fire that Genius has. Genius has to get through MKP first though, but considering Genius has beaten stronger TvP players in SC and Taeja to get into Code S, momentum and the statistics are on his side in this group. DRG is the scariest player in the group, and Genius has already beaten him earlier. The stars are aligning in the sky for Genius, and this is Genius’ group to take.
On the other hand the stars don’t seem to be shining brightly for MKP. He has played well to get this far, but most of MKP’s games have been TvTs against arguably unspectacular terrans in Boxer, Alive, and Happy. He’ll have to break out his TvP and TvZ this time around against DRG, Nestea, and Genius. MKP might be able to beat Nestea and give Genius a bit of trouble, but otherwise there’s nothing from MKP’s recent results or even from his play in the Homestory Cup that indicates he’ll be able to make it out of this group. His sole TvZ in recent history has been versus Zenio, who is terrible versus terrans, and DRG is a final boss that MKP should not be able to beat.
Unless MKP and Nestea show up and play with builds that nobody has seen before, it does not look like they will be advancing to the Ro8. Nestea might have proven that he isn’t in a slump with his solid performance in the Ro32 this season, but he won’t have Idra to give him relatively easy victories this time around. With how hot DRG and Genius have been playing so far, I’m even willing to say that the team MVP will have someone in the finals.
![[image loading]](http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/1516/ro16previewgeniusdrg.jpg)
Tons of love and BM to go around.
Predictions
+ Show Spoiler +
Advancing to the Ro8 – DRG, Genius
Not Advancing to the Ro8 – Nestea, MKP
Not Advancing to the Ro8 – Nestea, MKP
Image credit to GOMTV. Thanks for the feedback and the support!
Nice read.![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/94ReL.jpg)
