EPTHere are the odds
![[image loading]](http://i55.tinypic.com/eq9xmd.png)
I decided to take a look at the possibility of making two bets that are sort of "combined", one on Mvp at the -2.5 game handicap and one of MKP at the +1.5 handicap.
For simplicities sake, these two bets would leave me in the situation of
Mvp 0 - 4 MKP ---- WIN ---- MKP at the +1.5
Mvp 1 - 4 MKP ---- WIN ---- MKP at the +1.5
Mvp 2 - 4 MKP ---- WIN ---- MKP at the +1.5
Mvp 3 - 4 MKP ---- WIN ---- MKP at the +1.5
Mvp 4 - 3 MKP ---- WIN ---- MKP at the +1.5
Mvp 4 - 2 MKP ---- LOSS
Mvp 4 - 1 MKP ---- WIN ---- Mvp at the -2.5
Mvp 4 - 0 MKP ---- WIN ---- Mvp at the -2.5
Now the odds for these are as follows
Mvp (-2.5) @ 2.400
MKP (+1.5) @ 2.540
and the amounts I would put on to make the payouts close if either bet wins (since the odds arent the same) will be
10 units on Mvp (-2.5) @ 2.400
9.5 units on MKP (+1.5) @ 2.540
creating the payout distribution to be as follows for the different results
Mvp 0 - 4 MKP +4.63
Mvp 1 - 4 MKP +4.63
Mvp 2 - 4 MKP +4.63
Mvp 3 - 4 MKP +4.63
Mvp 4 - 3 MKP +4.63
Mvp 4 - 2 MKP -19.50
Mvp 4 - 1 MKP +4.50
Mvp 4 - 0 MKP +4.50
So we are basically betting against a 4-2 victory for Mvp.
Now I decided to work out the probability of this result. I gave Mvp different probabilities to win a single game against MKP ranging from him having a 30% chance to win a single game, to a 90% chance. (Note: player A who would beat player B 60% of the time in a bo1, would NOT win a bo99 60% of the time, his chances would be much higher)
Here is the table I came up with that shows the probability of each result given the different probabilities Mvp has of winning a single game
![[image loading]](http://i54.tinypic.com/33wsdoz.png)
...and from this I can make an expected value of the bet given the different probabilities
![[image loading]](http://i56.tinypic.com/x5uvz8.png)
and a graph of probability to win a single game against expected earnings
![[image loading]](http://i56.tinypic.com/zumrr5.png)
Pictures are weird sizes o.O
So as we can see this bet would be a bad one if Mvp's chances of winning a game are inbetween ~56% to ~76.5%, and if his chances are either side of that, we can expect a profit, which increases the further you get from this range.
I should note that this does not take into account factors such as players emotions affecting their play, for example if MKP wins the first game, his confidence would increase and Mvp would feel more pressure, changing the probabilities of the result over the next single game.
Also I'd like to state that we have a small group on skype for SC2 bet discussions, only 4 of us at the moment but if you would like to be added to it PM me your Skype id
Post your thoughts and if you see if i've made any mistakes in my calc or theory (very possible) and any bets you are planning on making for the GSL finals! GL HF
