[STATS] Flash: Another Level

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fusionsdf

Canada15390 Posts

April 30 2010 01:16 GMT

Rolling Year graph (from 2005 to now):

FOR ALL MATCH-UPS

Flash is dominant right now. For most people on TL, that's obvious from the sheer quantity of threads lately about Flash with titles like "Flash: Next Bonjwa???!", "Flash: Pretty Damn Good", "lololololol i think flash jst broek elo lolol", "So good even kespa will lose" (not real titles, but you get the point). So exactly how dominant is flash, and for how long has it lasted?

Before I dig deep into the stats of Flash vs some other top players, I would like to bring an illustrative point to everyone's attention: Of Flash's last 100 games, he has won 82. We are talking about a player who has managed to be significantly more dominant, not just compared to rivals Jaedong and Bisu, but sAviOr as well, and by extension everyone else on the planet. Now I'm not going to throw around the Bonjwa word, but this is the most dominant display of Starcraft skill we have ever seen in the entire history of Starcraft. I am not making this up.

So now that I've hyped everyone up with seemingly far-fetched descriptions of Flash's Brood War prowess, here's an explanation of the stats, what they mean, and I picked them.

One of the very first things I decided was how long of a period to measure. A really bad player can have a good day; a moderately-skilled player can have a good month. But a player getting hot for a short period of time and then flaming out does not a dominant player make. I decided that a year long period would be sufficient to measure a player by. It provides a lot of games, accounts for slumps and boosts, and was similar to the time-frame of the last bonjwa sAviOr's dominance. To account for lucky or unlucky dates being picked, I use a rolling percentage: starting with the year long span between Jan 01, 2005 and Jan 01, 2006, I calculate the winning percentage of each player. I then move forward, throwing away the oldest month and adding in a new one (Feb 01, 2005 to Feb 01, 2006). Hopefully that is a good enough description of the methodology used.

Note: This is just one model. It cannot (nor can ELO, KeSPA rank or anything else) be used to definitively say player X is or is not a bonjwa. That said, I personally believe this model is more useful for these kinds of comparisons than the other models.

The Competitors:
Savior: The man for whom the term 'bonjwa' was coined. Currently embroiled in a scandal that could see him as the biggest villain not just in starcraft but in ESPORTS history, he is the last player to be widely considered 'bonjwa'
Bisu: The usurper....or maybe not. Bisu's 3-0 facestomping of sAviOr in the MSL finals (ignoring for the moment whether savior threw those games), Bisu was widely considered next in line for the title of Bonjwa. While he has not completely lived up to it due to inconsitancies and slumps (and the emergence of other strong players), he deserves, without doubt, to be called the best Protoss of all-time.
Flash: King Macro, Ultimate Weapon, Little Monster, He who turtles. Flash is l'enfant terrible, an absolutely brutal Starcraft force of nature. The best Terran of all time, and currently the most dominant player.
Jaedong: Flash's main rival, and the best zerg of all time. Jaedong combines precise micro, incredible multitasking and scary macro all in one cold, ruthless package. Jaedong has been rumored to unplug opponents monitors and even disable entire TV studios just by staring hard enough. Scary.

BLUE: Highest win percentage during specified period. Minimum of 50 games played.

: Point gain compared to last period. (0.01% - 2.29%)

: No point change compared to last period.

: Point loss compared to last period.(0.01% - 2.29%)

: Point gain compared to last period. (≥ 3%)

: Point loss compared to last period.(≥ 3%)

2005

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (40.00%)                      2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (62.50%)
2005-02-01 ⇀ 2006-02-01 (40.00%)
                  2005-02-01 ⇀ 2006-02-01 (61.11%)

2005-03-01 ⇀ 2006-03-01 (40.00%)
                  2005-03-01 ⇀ 2006-03-01 (60.78%)

2005-04-01 ⇀ 2006-04-01 (40.00%)
                  2005-04-01 ⇀ 2006-04-01 (59.57%)

2005-05-01 ⇀ 2006-05-01 (40.00%)
                  2005-05-01 ⇀ 2006-05-01 (59.57%)

2005-06-01 ⇀ 2006-06-01 (42.86%)
                  2005-06-01 ⇀ 2006-06-01 (62.75%)

2005-07-01 ⇀ 2006-07-01 (42.86%)
                  2005-07-01 ⇀ 2006-07-01 (60.00%)

2005-08-01 ⇀ 2006-08-01 (46.15%)
                  2005-08-01 ⇀ 2006-08-01 (63.93%)

2005-09-01 ⇀ 2006-09-01 (56.25%)
                  2005-09-01 ⇀ 2006-09-01 (66.07%)

2005-10-01 ⇀ 2006-10-01 (63.64%)
                  2005-10-01 ⇀ 2006-10-01 (66.67%)

2005-11-01 ⇀ 2006-11-01 (60.87%)
                  2005-11-01 ⇀ 2006-11-01 (67.80%)

2005-12-01 ⇀ 2006-12-01 (57.69%)
                  2005-12-01 ⇀ 2006-12-01 (70.00%)

      Avg: (47.53%)                                                      Avg: (63.40%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (--.--%)                      2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (--.--%%)
2005-02-01 ⇀ 2006-02-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-02-01 ⇀ 2006-02-01 (--.--%)

2005-03-01 ⇀ 2006-03-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-03-01 ⇀ 2006-03-01 (--.--%)

2005-04-01 ⇀ 2006-04-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-04-01 ⇀ 2006-04-01 (--.--%)

2005-05-01 ⇀ 2006-05-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-05-01 ⇀ 2006-05-01 (00.00%)
2005-06-01 ⇀ 2006-06-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-06-01 ⇀ 2006-06-01 (45.45%)

2005-07-01 ⇀ 2006-07-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-07-01 ⇀ 2006-07-01 (53.33%)

2005-08-01 ⇀ 2006-08-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-08-01 ⇀ 2006-08-01 (50.00%)

2005-09-01 ⇀ 2006-09-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-09-01 ⇀ 2006-09-01 (55.56%)

2005-10-01 ⇀ 2006-10-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-10-01 ⇀ 2006-10-01 (64.00%)

2005-11-01 ⇀ 2006-11-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-11-01 ⇀ 2006-11-01 (66.67%)

2005-12-01 ⇀ 2006-12-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-12-01 ⇀ 2006-12-01 (64.71%)

      Avg: (--.--%)                                                      Avg: (49.97%)

2006

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2006-01-01 ⇀ 2007-01-01 (59.38%)
                     2006-01-01 ⇀ 2007-01-01 (71.21%)

2006-02-01 ⇀ 2007-02-01 (58.97%)
                  2006-02-01 ⇀ 2007-02-01 (74.63%)

2006-03-01 ⇀ 2007-03-01 (61.90%)
                  2006-03-01 ⇀ 2007-03-01 (73.81%)

2006-04-01 ⇀ 2007-04-01 (65.38%)
                  2006-04-01 ⇀ 2007-04-01 (71.26%)

2006-05-01 ⇀ 2007-05-01 (64.41%)
                  2006-05-01 ⇀ 2007-05-01 (69.32%)

2006-06-01 ⇀ 2007-06-01 (63.24%)
                  2006-06-01 ⇀ 2007-06-01 (68.89%)

2006-07-01 ⇀ 2007-07-01 (64.71%)
                  2006-07-01 ⇀ 2007-07-01 (67.03%)

2006-08-01 ⇀ 2007-08-01 (64.44%)
                  2006-08-01 ⇀ 2007-08-01 (65.52%)

2006-09-01 ⇀ 2007-09-01 (62.22%)
                  2006-09-01 ⇀ 2007-09-01 (65.63%)

2006-10-01 ⇀ 2007-10-01 (62.07%)
                  2006-10-01 ⇀ 2007-10-01 (63.54%)

2006-11-01 ⇀ 2007-11-01 (63.74%)
                  2006-11-01 ⇀ 2007-11-01 (64.42%)

2006-12-01 ⇀ 2007-12-01 (63.37%)
                  2006-12-01 ⇀ 2007-12-01 (59.80%)

      Avg: (62.82%)                                                      Avg: (67.92%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2006-01-01 ⇀ 2007-01-01 (--.--%)
                     2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (63.16%)

2006-02-01 ⇀ 2007-02-01 (--.--%)
                  2006-02-01 ⇀ 2007-02-01 (63.41%)

2006-03-01 ⇀ 2007-03-01 (--.--%)
                  2006-03-01 ⇀ 2007-03-01 (60.47%)

2006-04-01 ⇀ 2007-04-01 (--.--%)
                  2006-04-01 ⇀ 2007-04-01 (62.50%)

2006-05-01 ⇀ 2007-05-01 (100.00%)                   2006-05-01 ⇀ 2007-05-01 (58.18%)

2006-06-01 ⇀ 2007-06-01 (87.50%)
                  2006-06-01 ⇀ 2007-06-01 (58.82%)

2006-07-01 ⇀ 2007-07-01 (88.24%)                   2006-07-01 ⇀ 2007-07-01 (61.40%)

2006-08-01 ⇀ 2007-08-01 (64.71%)
                  2006-08-01 ⇀ 2007-08-01 (65.75%)

2006-09-01 ⇀ 2007-09-01 (64.71%)
                  2006-09-01 ⇀ 2007-09-01 (64.00%)

2006-10-01 ⇀ 2007-10-01 (62.50%)
                  2006-10-01 ⇀ 2007-10-01 (61.97%)

2006-11-01 ⇀ 2007-11-01 (61.36%)
                  2006-11-01 ⇀ 2007-11-01 (64.00%)

2006-12-01 ⇀ 2007-12-01 (58.49%)
                  2006-12-01 ⇀ 2007-12-01 (61.25%)

      Avg: (73.44%)                                                      Avg: (62.08%)

2007

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2007-01-01 ⇀ 2008-01-01 (60.58%)
                     2007-01-01 ⇀ 2008-01-01 (59.00%)

2007-02-01 ⇀ 2008-02-01 (60.00%)
                  2007-02-01 ⇀ 2008-02-01 (54.46%)

2007-03-01 ⇀ 2008-03-01 (59.82%)
                  2007-03-01 ⇀ 2008-03-01 (51.72%)

2007-04-01 ⇀ 2008-04-01 (57.84%)
                  2007-04-01 ⇀ 2008-04-01 (53.57%)

2007-05-01 ⇀ 2008-05-01 (56.44%)
                  2007-05-01 ⇀ 2008-05-01 (54.02%)

2007-06-01 ⇀ 2008-06-01 (56.25%)
                  2007-06-01 ⇀ 2008-06-01 (51.19%)

2007-07-01 ⇀ 2008-07-01 (54.55%)
                  2007-07-01 ⇀ 2008-07-01 (50.68%)

2007-08-01 ⇀ 2008-08-01 (52.44%)
                  2007-08-01 ⇀ 2008-08-01 (48.61%)

2007-09-01 ⇀ 2008-09-01 (52.38%)
                  2007-09-01 ⇀ 2008-09-01 (46.15%)

2007-10-01 ⇀ 2008-10-01 (51.19%)
                  2007-10-01 ⇀ 2008-10-01 (44.44%)

2007-11-01 ⇀ 2008-11-01 (53.93%)
                  2007-11-01 ⇀ 2008-11-01 (43.86%)

2007-12-01 ⇀ 2008-12-01 (57.89%)
                  2007-12-01 ⇀ 2008-12-01 (44.23%)

      Avg: (56.11%)                                                      Avg: (50.16%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2007-01-01 ⇀ 2008-01-01 (60.94%)
                     2007-01-01 ⇀ 2008-01-01 (65.17%)

2007-02-01 ⇀ 2008-02-01 (61.64%)
                  2007-02-01 ⇀ 2008-02-01 (67.02%)

2007-03-01 ⇀ 2008-03-01 (62.07%)
                  2007-03-01 ⇀ 2008-03-01 (68.22%)

2007-04-01 ⇀ 2008-04-01 (63.33%)
                  2007-04-01 ⇀ 2008-04-01 (67.92%)

2007-05-01 ⇀ 2008-05-01 (63.04%)
                  2007-05-01 ⇀ 2008-05-01 (68.87%)

2007-06-01 ⇀ 2008-06-01 (66.04%)
                  2007-06-01 ⇀ 2008-06-01 (71.05%)

2007-07-01 ⇀ 2008-07-01 (64.04%)
                  2007-07-01 ⇀ 2008-07-01 (68.91%)

2007-08-01 ⇀ 2008-08-01 (66.07%)
                  2007-08-01 ⇀ 2008-08-01 (68.42%)

2007-09-01 ⇀ 2008-09-01 (64.75%)
                  2007-09-01 ⇀ 2008-09-01 (71.31%)

2007-10-01 ⇀ 2008-10-01 (65.85%)
                  2007-10-01 ⇀ 2008-10-01 (71.31%)

2007-11-01 ⇀ 2008-11-01 (68.42%)
                  2007-11-01 ⇀ 2008-11-01 (68.50%)

2007-12-01 ⇀ 2008-12-01 (68.70%)
                  2007-12-01 ⇀ 2008-12-01 (70.31%)

      Avg: (64.41%)                                                      Avg: (68.92%)

2008

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2008-01-01 ⇀ 2009-01-01 (62.77%)
                     2008-01-01 ? 2009-01-01 (46.30%)

2008-02-01 ⇀ 2009-02-01 (66.67%)
                  2008-02-01 ⇀ 2009-02-01 (48.98%)

2008-03-01 ⇀ 2009-03-01 (67.44%)
                  2008-03-01 ⇀ 2009-03-01 (51.67%)

2008-04-01 ⇀ 2009-04-01 (66.90%)
                  2008-04-01 ⇀ 2009-04-01 (50.00%)

2008-05-01 ⇀ 2009-05-01 (68.28%)
                  2008-05-01 ⇀ 2009-05-01 (51.67%)

2008-06-01 ⇀ 2009-06-01 (71.03%)
                  2008-06-01 ⇀ 2009-06-01 (50.88%)

2008-07-01 ⇀ 2009-07-01 (70.78%)
                  2008-07-01 ⇀ 2009-07-01 (51.72%)

2008-08-01 ⇀ 2009-08-01 (71.90%)
                  2008-08-01 ⇀ 2009-08-01 (50.85%)

2008-09-01 ⇀ 2009-09-01 (73.13%)
                  2008-09-01 ⇀ 2009-09-01 (50.00%)

2008-10-01 ⇀ 2009-10-01 (73.55%)
                  2008-10-01 ⇀ 2009-10-01 (50.94%)

2008-11-01 ⇀ 2009-11-01 (73.15%)
                  2008-11-01 ⇀ 2009-11-01 (48.15%)

2008-12-01 ⇀ 2009-12-01 (72.59%)
                  2008-12-01 ⇀ 2009-12-01 (49.02%)

      Avg: (69.85%)                                                      Avg: (50.02%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2008-01-01 ⇀ 2009-01-01 (69.12%)
                     2008-01-01 ⇀ 2009-01-01 (69.53%)

2008-02-01 ⇀ 2009-02-01 (68.15%)
                  2008-02-01 ⇀ 2009-02-01 (68.46%)

2008-03-01 ⇀ 2009-03-01 (69.66%)
                  2008-03-01 ⇀ 2009-03-01 (68.53%)

2008-04-01 ⇀ 2009-04-01 (68.24%)
                  2008-04-01 ⇀ 2009-04-01 (70.13%)

2008-05-01 ⇀ 2009-05-01 (68.00%)
                  2008-05-01 ⇀ 2009-05-01 (70.12%)

2008-06-01 ⇀ 2009-06-01 (65.73%)
                  2008-06-01 ⇀ 2009-06-01 (71.34%)

2008-07-01 ⇀ 2009-07-01 (67.57%)
                  2008-07-01 ⇀ 2009-07-01 (72.84%)

2008-08-01 ⇀ 2009-08-01 (69.01%)
                  2008-08-01 ⇀ 2009-08-01 (71.52%)

2008-09-01 ⇀ 2009-09-01 (70.63%)
                  2008-09-01 ⇀ 2009-09-01 (67.60%)

2008-10-01 ⇀ 2009-10-01 (70.80%)
                  2008-10-01 ⇀ 2009-10-01 (67.61%)

2008-11-01 ⇀ 2009-11-01 (73.28%)
                  2008-11-01 ⇀ 2009-11-01 (67.84%)

2008-12-01 ⇀ 2009-12-01 (73.48%)
                  2008-12-01 ⇀ 2009-12-01 (68.26%)

      Avg: (69.47%)                                                      Avg: (69.48%)

2009

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2009-01-01 ⇀ 2010-01-01 (71.01%)
                     2009-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (44.90%)

2009-02-01 ⇀ 2010-02-01 (69.75%)
                  2009-02-01 ⇀ 2010-02-01 (41.67%)

2009-03-01 ⇀ 2010-03-01 (66.02%)
                  2009-03-01 ⇀ 2010-03-01 (33.33%)

2009-04-01 ⇀ 2010-04-01 (67.03%)
                  2009-04-01 ⇀ 2010-04-01 (35.48%)

2009-05-01 ⇀ 2010-05-01 (63.83%)
                  2009-05-01 ⇀ 2010-05-01 (32.14%)

      Avg: (67.53%)                                                      Avg: (37.50%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2009-01-01 ⇀ 2010-01-01 (74.10%)
                     2009-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (69.36%)

2009-02-01 ⇀ 2010-02-01 (74.83%)
                  2009-02-01 ⇀ 2010-02-01 (70.06%)

2009-03-01 ⇀ 2010-03-01 (76.09%)
                  2009-03-01 ⇀ 2010-03-01 (68.94%)

2009-04-01 ⇀ 2010-04-01 (78.17%)
                  2009-04-01 ⇀ 2010-04-01 (67.31%)

2009-05-01 ⇀ 2010-05-01 (79.47%)
                  2009-05-01 ⇀ 2010-05-01 (68.21%)

      Avg: (76.53%)                                                      Avg: (68.78%)

-All stats from TLPD

Megalisk

United States6095 Posts

April 30 2010 01:17 GMT

A challenger appears

Kenpachi

United States9908 Posts

April 30 2010 01:20 GMT

if flash loses the MSL to MVP some how, im going to cry for eternity

flamewheel

FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts

April 30 2010 01:26 GMT

Damn, I love the use of statistics...
Very nice.

seRapH

United States9756 Posts

April 30 2010 01:34 GMT

if MVP beats flash and ends up making it to the finals, i'm gonna lmao like no other.

moopie

12605 Posts

April 30 2010 01:35 GMT

These graphs make me sad for Bisu. very nice though.

KingofHearts

Japan562 Posts

April 30 2010 01:44 GMT

if MVP beats flash and ends up making it to the finals, i'm gonna live for eternity

SilverSkyLark

Philippines8437 Posts

April 30 2010 01:57 GMT

On April 30 2010 10:44 KingofHearts wrote:
if MVP beats flash and ends up making it to the finals, i'm gonna live for eternity

doubt it

KingofHearts

Japan562 Posts

April 30 2010 02:00 GMT

ya mr.obvious we know you doubt it, so do we.

Pokebunny

United States10654 Posts

April 30 2010 02:04 GMT

#10

Aren't the year headings all a year off?

eNoq

Netherlands502 Posts

April 30 2010 02:08 GMT

#11

On April 30 2010 10:44 KingofHearts wrote:
if MVP beats flash and ends up making it to the finals, i'm gonna live for eternity

tears will be shed when that happens.

StorrZerg

United States13919 Posts

April 30 2010 02:29 GMT

#12

interesting read thx

JWD

United States12607 Posts

April 30 2010 02:45 GMT

#13

awesome, I was waiting for a thread like this (to give us an idea of just how dominant Flash has been recently).

5/5

fusionsdf

Canada15390 Posts

April 30 2010 03:23 GMT

#14

On April 30 2010 11:04 Pokebunny wrote:
Aren't the year headings all a year off?

nope
For example the May 01, 2009 (05/01/09) refers to the 1 year period starting on 05/01/09 and ending on 05/01/10

krndandaman

Mozambique16569 Posts

April 30 2010 03:26 GMT

#15

--- Nuked ---

EPO

Canada341 Posts

April 30 2010 04:47 GMT

#16

On April 30 2010 11:00 KingofHearts wrote:
ya mr.obvious we know you doubt it, so do we.

truth.

and well done OP.

fusionsdf

Canada15390 Posts

April 30 2010 16:13 GMT

#17

On April 30 2010 12:26 krndandaman wrote:
if MVP makes it past Flash he won't make it past the Flash fanboys

*shudder*

WON'T HAPPEN

bearbuddy

3442 Posts

April 30 2010 16:27 GMT

#18

I thought this was about Stats and Flash bromance taking to another level.

I kid.

He is indeed the ultimate weapon.

J1.au

Australia3596 Posts

May 07 2010 04:21 GMT

#19

How did I miss this? Great thread.

dukethegold

Canada5645 Posts

May 07 2010 05:06 GMT

#20

Nice work! Although Bisu was hailed as the "next" bonjwa for a period, he never really gained any lead over Jaedong during his periods of dominance.

konadora

Singapore66159 Posts

May 07 2010 06:04 GMT

#21

I love how in the first graph, Flash's graph starts at 100% lol

Wings

United States999 Posts

May 07 2010 06:08 GMT

#22

On May 07 2010 15:04 konadora wrote:
I love how in the first graph, Flash's graph starts at 100% lol

lol yeah i was wondering. Why does Flash have > 100% (wtf)??? What is the measure on the y-axis? Is it overall win ratio? Cuz if so... lolll Flash dropped from heaven

EDIT: OP these graphs were great, but can you make an ELO graph? That would be epic =D

Necosarius

Sweden4042 Posts

May 07 2010 06:35 GMT

#23

On May 07 2010 15:08 Wings wrote:

Show nested quote +

He won his first match thus starting at 100%.

semantics

10040 Posts

May 07 2010 07:11 GMT

#24

On May 07 2010 15:04 konadora wrote:
I love how in the first graph, Flash's graph starts at 100% lol

Yeah i thought that was funny too lol. Flash could be next Bonjwa frankly it's about clear era of dominance which recently flash has been doing. I mean if you're just talking about televised matches savior barely game let alone a series at his height which i think sells the Bonjwa usage along with play style i mean when you saw oov or savior matches in prime there were just steam rolling people usually again selling the appearance.

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