[STATS] Flash: Another Level

Rolling Year graph (from 2005 to now):

FOR ALL MATCH-UPS

Flash is dominant right now. For most people on TL, that's obvious from the sheer quantity of threads lately about Flash with titles like "Flash: Next Bonjwa???!", "Flash: Pretty Damn Good", "lololololol i think flash jst broek elo lolol", "So good even kespa will lose" (not real titles, but you get the point). So exactly how dominant is flash, and for how long has it lasted?

Before I dig deep into the stats of Flash vs some other top players, I would like to bring an illustrative point to everyone's attention: Of Flash's last 100 games, he has won 82. We are talking about a player who has managed to be significantly more dominant, not just compared to rivals Jaedong and Bisu, but sAviOr as well, and by extension everyone else on the planet. Now I'm not going to throw around the Bonjwa word, but this is the most dominant display of Starcraft skill we have ever seen in the entire history of Starcraft. I am not making this up.

So now that I've hyped everyone up with seemingly far-fetched descriptions of Flash's Brood War prowess, here's an explanation of the stats, what they mean, and I picked them.

One of the very first things I decided was how long of a period to measure. A really bad player can have a good day; a moderately-skilled player can have a good month. But a player getting hot for a short period of time and then flaming out does not a dominant player make. I decided that a year long period would be sufficient to measure a player by. It provides a lot of games, accounts for slumps and boosts, and was similar to the time-frame of the last bonjwa sAviOr's dominance. To account for lucky or unlucky dates being picked, I use a rolling percentage: starting with the year long span between Jan 01, 2005 and Jan 01, 2006, I calculate the winning percentage of each player. I then move forward, throwing away the oldest month and adding in a new one (Feb 01, 2005 to Feb 01, 2006). Hopefully that is a good enough description of the methodology used.

Note: This is just one model. It cannot (nor can ELO, KeSPA rank or anything else) be used to definitively say player X is or is not a bonjwa. That said, I personally believe this model is more useful for these kinds of comparisons than the other models.

The Competitors:
Savior: The man for whom the term 'bonjwa' was coined. Currently embroiled in a scandal that could see him as the biggest villain not just in starcraft but in ESPORTS history, he is the last player to be widely considered 'bonjwa'
Bisu: The usurper....or maybe not. Bisu's 3-0 facestomping of sAviOr in the MSL finals (ignoring for the moment whether savior threw those games), Bisu was widely considered next in line for the title of Bonjwa. While he has not completely lived up to it due to inconsitancies and slumps (and the emergence of other strong players), he deserves, without doubt, to be called the best Protoss of all-time.
Flash: King Macro, Ultimate Weapon, Little Monster, He who turtles. Flash is l'enfant terrible, an absolutely brutal Starcraft force of nature. The best Terran of all time, and currently the most dominant player.
Jaedong: Flash's main rival, and the best zerg of all time. Jaedong combines precise micro, incredible multitasking and scary macro all in one cold, ruthless package. Jaedong has been rumored to unplug opponents monitors and even disable entire TV studios just by staring hard enough. Scary.

BLUE: Highest win percentage during specified period. Minimum of 50 games played.

: Point gain compared to last period. (0.01% - 2.29%)

: No point change compared to last period.

: Point loss compared to last period.(0.01% - 2.29%)

: Point gain compared to last period. (≥ 3%)

: Point loss compared to last period.(≥ 3%)

2005

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (40.00%)                      2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (62.50%)
2005-02-01 ⇀ 2006-02-01 (40.00%)
                  2005-02-01 ⇀ 2006-02-01 (61.11%)

2005-03-01 ⇀ 2006-03-01 (40.00%)
                  2005-03-01 ⇀ 2006-03-01 (60.78%)

2005-04-01 ⇀ 2006-04-01 (40.00%)
                  2005-04-01 ⇀ 2006-04-01 (59.57%)

2005-05-01 ⇀ 2006-05-01 (40.00%)
                  2005-05-01 ⇀ 2006-05-01 (59.57%)

2005-06-01 ⇀ 2006-06-01 (42.86%)
                  2005-06-01 ⇀ 2006-06-01 (62.75%)

2005-07-01 ⇀ 2006-07-01 (42.86%)
                  2005-07-01 ⇀ 2006-07-01 (60.00%)

2005-08-01 ⇀ 2006-08-01 (46.15%)
                  2005-08-01 ⇀ 2006-08-01 (63.93%)

2005-09-01 ⇀ 2006-09-01 (56.25%)
                  2005-09-01 ⇀ 2006-09-01 (66.07%)

2005-10-01 ⇀ 2006-10-01 (63.64%)
                  2005-10-01 ⇀ 2006-10-01 (66.67%)

2005-11-01 ⇀ 2006-11-01 (60.87%)
                  2005-11-01 ⇀ 2006-11-01 (67.80%)

2005-12-01 ⇀ 2006-12-01 (57.69%)
                  2005-12-01 ⇀ 2006-12-01 (70.00%)

      Avg: (47.53%)                                                      Avg: (63.40%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (--.--%)                      2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (--.--%%)
2005-02-01 ⇀ 2006-02-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-02-01 ⇀ 2006-02-01 (--.--%)

2005-03-01 ⇀ 2006-03-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-03-01 ⇀ 2006-03-01 (--.--%)

2005-04-01 ⇀ 2006-04-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-04-01 ⇀ 2006-04-01 (--.--%)

2005-05-01 ⇀ 2006-05-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-05-01 ⇀ 2006-05-01 (00.00%)
2005-06-01 ⇀ 2006-06-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-06-01 ⇀ 2006-06-01 (45.45%)

2005-07-01 ⇀ 2006-07-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-07-01 ⇀ 2006-07-01 (53.33%)

2005-08-01 ⇀ 2006-08-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-08-01 ⇀ 2006-08-01 (50.00%)

2005-09-01 ⇀ 2006-09-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-09-01 ⇀ 2006-09-01 (55.56%)

2005-10-01 ⇀ 2006-10-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-10-01 ⇀ 2006-10-01 (64.00%)

2005-11-01 ⇀ 2006-11-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-11-01 ⇀ 2006-11-01 (66.67%)

2005-12-01 ⇀ 2006-12-01 (--.--%)
                  2005-12-01 ⇀ 2006-12-01 (64.71%)

      Avg: (--.--%)                                                      Avg: (49.97%)

2006

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2006-01-01 ⇀ 2007-01-01 (59.38%)
                     2006-01-01 ⇀ 2007-01-01 (71.21%)

2006-02-01 ⇀ 2007-02-01 (58.97%)
                  2006-02-01 ⇀ 2007-02-01 (74.63%)

2006-03-01 ⇀ 2007-03-01 (61.90%)
                  2006-03-01 ⇀ 2007-03-01 (73.81%)

2006-04-01 ⇀ 2007-04-01 (65.38%)
                  2006-04-01 ⇀ 2007-04-01 (71.26%)

2006-05-01 ⇀ 2007-05-01 (64.41%)
                  2006-05-01 ⇀ 2007-05-01 (69.32%)

2006-06-01 ⇀ 2007-06-01 (63.24%)
                  2006-06-01 ⇀ 2007-06-01 (68.89%)

2006-07-01 ⇀ 2007-07-01 (64.71%)
                  2006-07-01 ⇀ 2007-07-01 (67.03%)

2006-08-01 ⇀ 2007-08-01 (64.44%)
                  2006-08-01 ⇀ 2007-08-01 (65.52%)

2006-09-01 ⇀ 2007-09-01 (62.22%)
                  2006-09-01 ⇀ 2007-09-01 (65.63%)

2006-10-01 ⇀ 2007-10-01 (62.07%)
                  2006-10-01 ⇀ 2007-10-01 (63.54%)

2006-11-01 ⇀ 2007-11-01 (63.74%)
                  2006-11-01 ⇀ 2007-11-01 (64.42%)

2006-12-01 ⇀ 2007-12-01 (63.37%)
                  2006-12-01 ⇀ 2007-12-01 (59.80%)

      Avg: (62.82%)                                                      Avg: (67.92%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2006-01-01 ⇀ 2007-01-01 (--.--%)
                     2005-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (63.16%)

2006-02-01 ⇀ 2007-02-01 (--.--%)
                  2006-02-01 ⇀ 2007-02-01 (63.41%)

2006-03-01 ⇀ 2007-03-01 (--.--%)
                  2006-03-01 ⇀ 2007-03-01 (60.47%)

2006-04-01 ⇀ 2007-04-01 (--.--%)
                  2006-04-01 ⇀ 2007-04-01 (62.50%)

2006-05-01 ⇀ 2007-05-01 (100.00%)                   2006-05-01 ⇀ 2007-05-01 (58.18%)

2006-06-01 ⇀ 2007-06-01 (87.50%)
                  2006-06-01 ⇀ 2007-06-01 (58.82%)

2006-07-01 ⇀ 2007-07-01 (88.24%)                   2006-07-01 ⇀ 2007-07-01 (61.40%)

2006-08-01 ⇀ 2007-08-01 (64.71%)
                  2006-08-01 ⇀ 2007-08-01 (65.75%)

2006-09-01 ⇀ 2007-09-01 (64.71%)
                  2006-09-01 ⇀ 2007-09-01 (64.00%)

2006-10-01 ⇀ 2007-10-01 (62.50%)
                  2006-10-01 ⇀ 2007-10-01 (61.97%)

2006-11-01 ⇀ 2007-11-01 (61.36%)
                  2006-11-01 ⇀ 2007-11-01 (64.00%)

2006-12-01 ⇀ 2007-12-01 (58.49%)
                  2006-12-01 ⇀ 2007-12-01 (61.25%)

      Avg: (73.44%)                                                      Avg: (62.08%)

2007

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2007-01-01 ⇀ 2008-01-01 (60.58%)
                     2007-01-01 ⇀ 2008-01-01 (59.00%)

2007-02-01 ⇀ 2008-02-01 (60.00%)
                  2007-02-01 ⇀ 2008-02-01 (54.46%)

2007-03-01 ⇀ 2008-03-01 (59.82%)
                  2007-03-01 ⇀ 2008-03-01 (51.72%)

2007-04-01 ⇀ 2008-04-01 (57.84%)
                  2007-04-01 ⇀ 2008-04-01 (53.57%)

2007-05-01 ⇀ 2008-05-01 (56.44%)
                  2007-05-01 ⇀ 2008-05-01 (54.02%)

2007-06-01 ⇀ 2008-06-01 (56.25%)
                  2007-06-01 ⇀ 2008-06-01 (51.19%)

2007-07-01 ⇀ 2008-07-01 (54.55%)
                  2007-07-01 ⇀ 2008-07-01 (50.68%)

2007-08-01 ⇀ 2008-08-01 (52.44%)
                  2007-08-01 ⇀ 2008-08-01 (48.61%)

2007-09-01 ⇀ 2008-09-01 (52.38%)
                  2007-09-01 ⇀ 2008-09-01 (46.15%)

2007-10-01 ⇀ 2008-10-01 (51.19%)
                  2007-10-01 ⇀ 2008-10-01 (44.44%)

2007-11-01 ⇀ 2008-11-01 (53.93%)
                  2007-11-01 ⇀ 2008-11-01 (43.86%)

2007-12-01 ⇀ 2008-12-01 (57.89%)
                  2007-12-01 ⇀ 2008-12-01 (44.23%)

      Avg: (56.11%)                                                      Avg: (50.16%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2007-01-01 ⇀ 2008-01-01 (60.94%)
                     2007-01-01 ⇀ 2008-01-01 (65.17%)

2007-02-01 ⇀ 2008-02-01 (61.64%)
                  2007-02-01 ⇀ 2008-02-01 (67.02%)

2007-03-01 ⇀ 2008-03-01 (62.07%)
                  2007-03-01 ⇀ 2008-03-01 (68.22%)

2007-04-01 ⇀ 2008-04-01 (63.33%)
                  2007-04-01 ⇀ 2008-04-01 (67.92%)

2007-05-01 ⇀ 2008-05-01 (63.04%)
                  2007-05-01 ⇀ 2008-05-01 (68.87%)

2007-06-01 ⇀ 2008-06-01 (66.04%)
                  2007-06-01 ⇀ 2008-06-01 (71.05%)

2007-07-01 ⇀ 2008-07-01 (64.04%)
                  2007-07-01 ⇀ 2008-07-01 (68.91%)

2007-08-01 ⇀ 2008-08-01 (66.07%)
                  2007-08-01 ⇀ 2008-08-01 (68.42%)

2007-09-01 ⇀ 2008-09-01 (64.75%)
                  2007-09-01 ⇀ 2008-09-01 (71.31%)

2007-10-01 ⇀ 2008-10-01 (65.85%)
                  2007-10-01 ⇀ 2008-10-01 (71.31%)

2007-11-01 ⇀ 2008-11-01 (68.42%)
                  2007-11-01 ⇀ 2008-11-01 (68.50%)

2007-12-01 ⇀ 2008-12-01 (68.70%)
                  2007-12-01 ⇀ 2008-12-01 (70.31%)

      Avg: (64.41%)                                                      Avg: (68.92%)

2008

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2008-01-01 ⇀ 2009-01-01 (62.77%)
                     2008-01-01 ? 2009-01-01 (46.30%)

2008-02-01 ⇀ 2009-02-01 (66.67%)
                  2008-02-01 ⇀ 2009-02-01 (48.98%)

2008-03-01 ⇀ 2009-03-01 (67.44%)
                  2008-03-01 ⇀ 2009-03-01 (51.67%)

2008-04-01 ⇀ 2009-04-01 (66.90%)
                  2008-04-01 ⇀ 2009-04-01 (50.00%)

2008-05-01 ⇀ 2009-05-01 (68.28%)
                  2008-05-01 ⇀ 2009-05-01 (51.67%)

2008-06-01 ⇀ 2009-06-01 (71.03%)
                  2008-06-01 ⇀ 2009-06-01 (50.88%)

2008-07-01 ⇀ 2009-07-01 (70.78%)
                  2008-07-01 ⇀ 2009-07-01 (51.72%)

2008-08-01 ⇀ 2009-08-01 (71.90%)
                  2008-08-01 ⇀ 2009-08-01 (50.85%)

2008-09-01 ⇀ 2009-09-01 (73.13%)
                  2008-09-01 ⇀ 2009-09-01 (50.00%)

2008-10-01 ⇀ 2009-10-01 (73.55%)
                  2008-10-01 ⇀ 2009-10-01 (50.94%)

2008-11-01 ⇀ 2009-11-01 (73.15%)
                  2008-11-01 ⇀ 2009-11-01 (48.15%)

2008-12-01 ⇀ 2009-12-01 (72.59%)
                  2008-12-01 ⇀ 2009-12-01 (49.02%)

      Avg: (69.85%)                                                      Avg: (50.02%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2008-01-01 ⇀ 2009-01-01 (69.12%)
                     2008-01-01 ⇀ 2009-01-01 (69.53%)

2008-02-01 ⇀ 2009-02-01 (68.15%)
                  2008-02-01 ⇀ 2009-02-01 (68.46%)

2008-03-01 ⇀ 2009-03-01 (69.66%)
                  2008-03-01 ⇀ 2009-03-01 (68.53%)

2008-04-01 ⇀ 2009-04-01 (68.24%)
                  2008-04-01 ⇀ 2009-04-01 (70.13%)

2008-05-01 ⇀ 2009-05-01 (68.00%)
                  2008-05-01 ⇀ 2009-05-01 (70.12%)

2008-06-01 ⇀ 2009-06-01 (65.73%)
                  2008-06-01 ⇀ 2009-06-01 (71.34%)

2008-07-01 ⇀ 2009-07-01 (67.57%)
                  2008-07-01 ⇀ 2009-07-01 (72.84%)

2008-08-01 ⇀ 2009-08-01 (69.01%)
                  2008-08-01 ⇀ 2009-08-01 (71.52%)

2008-09-01 ⇀ 2009-09-01 (70.63%)
                  2008-09-01 ⇀ 2009-09-01 (67.60%)

2008-10-01 ⇀ 2009-10-01 (70.80%)
                  2008-10-01 ⇀ 2009-10-01 (67.61%)

2008-11-01 ⇀ 2009-11-01 (73.28%)
                  2008-11-01 ⇀ 2009-11-01 (67.84%)

2008-12-01 ⇀ 2009-12-01 (73.48%)
                  2008-12-01 ⇀ 2009-12-01 (68.26%)

      Avg: (69.47%)                                                      Avg: (69.48%)

2009

+ Show Spoiler +

Bisu:                                                                 sAviOr:
2009-01-01 ⇀ 2010-01-01 (71.01%)
                     2009-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (44.90%)

2009-02-01 ⇀ 2010-02-01 (69.75%)
                  2009-02-01 ⇀ 2010-02-01 (41.67%)

2009-03-01 ⇀ 2010-03-01 (66.02%)
                  2009-03-01 ⇀ 2010-03-01 (33.33%)

2009-04-01 ⇀ 2010-04-01 (67.03%)
                  2009-04-01 ⇀ 2010-04-01 (35.48%)

2009-05-01 ⇀ 2010-05-01 (63.83%)
                  2009-05-01 ⇀ 2010-05-01 (32.14%)

      Avg: (67.53%)                                                      Avg: (37.50%)

Flash:                                                                 Jaedong:
2009-01-01 ⇀ 2010-01-01 (74.10%)
                     2009-01-01 ⇀ 2006-01-01 (69.36%)

2009-02-01 ⇀ 2010-02-01 (74.83%)
                  2009-02-01 ⇀ 2010-02-01 (70.06%)

2009-03-01 ⇀ 2010-03-01 (76.09%)
                  2009-03-01 ⇀ 2010-03-01 (68.94%)

2009-04-01 ⇀ 2010-04-01 (78.17%)
                  2009-04-01 ⇀ 2010-04-01 (67.31%)

2009-05-01 ⇀ 2010-05-01 (79.47%)
                  2009-05-01 ⇀ 2010-05-01 (68.21%)

      Avg: (76.53%)                                                      Avg: (68.78%)

-All stats from TLPD