On January 03 2010 04:51 Tenox wrote:
Actually neither side is wrong in this case imo, it depends on how you look at it. Skip ahead to 3:27 for something kind of relating to the subject at hand.
Well, that video says nothing at all. Schnake was saying that you wouldn't have slim chances of you hitting this combination, denying their point. What he obviously must mean is, like the video was saying, that there is a good chance that one of all the many people download from Megaupload would hit this combination. However, that is completely irrelevant, as what the others were talking about was the chances of one specific person hitting this combination with one specific download, which is what caused them to react. Hence, the point of Schnake is off the point and irrelevant. Granted, you might argue that it would be relevant to include the small group of other people who downloaded this specific file and would be able to post here as well, but even then, the odds are quite slim.
It seems to me that mathematicians sometimes tend to blur some things with irrelevant mentions of probablity.