Instead of projecting who will go to global final, this analysis becomes who will stay in qualifying spot after GSL season 3, not including any result from DH master fall global final.
TY and Rogue is qualified, there is no further analysis needed.
I will look at the “minimum” requirement, which is consider everything goes his way, what the player still have to achieve to get into the last seed, and I will look at the “most bad luck” situation, which is how the player can get in when every other result goes against that player. Then may be everything in between?
To clear things up, when I say the player is in, what I mean is he is still in the top 9 (for RO24) (top 7 if not counting TY and Rogue because their point total is irrelevant in this discussion), or top 18 (for RO36), not qualified.
For RO24, lets start with the simple first:
Innovation:
He is in. Even he stays at 16th rank, to get the maximum number of players in front of him, it would take: zest to 12th rank, Stats and everyone below have to get to rank 4 or above in order to get above Inno. That put a maximum of 4 players (without GSL /IEM win) above inno (Zest, and the 2nd -4th place player of GSL season 3).
Zest:
He is in. Similar to Inno, even if he stays at rank 16, there still not enough player to get him out of top 9 (top 7 point wise). Worse case for Zest would be Stats and Trap on RO8, Cure and Maru on RO4, Parting RO2, that put 6 players in front of Zest, he is in top 9 (top 7 point wise).
Buyn, zoun dream and Armani
On the other hand, Buyn, zoun dream and Armani at least have to win the event to get into RO24, if they “only” get 2nd place, their point total will be 630, 798 1025 and 1000 respectively, which is still lower than the 10th place player total of 1055.
Stats
For Stats, if he manages to get to rank 12, he is in, irrespective to whatever else happen. If he happened to be going out at rank 16, the following (all of below) must happen for him to loss out:
1, None of these players wins: TY, Rogue, inno, zest, stats, trap, cure, maru, parting and dark.
2, Cure have at least RO8,
3, parting at least RO4
4, Dark at RO2
5, Trap get to at least rank 12.
6, maru get to RO4 or RO8 (maru at RO8 would have tied in point with Stats, but I am not sure how the tie breaker rule is, so not sure if maru at RO8 is good enough to bump Stats out).
N.B. in order for dark to get to RO2, either parting or maru will have to loss out in RO8, so if maru cannot win the tie break, Stats is in even he does not progress.
Trap
For trap, if he manages to get to rank 12, he is still in, irrespective to whatever else happen. If he happened to be going out at rank 16, the following (all of below) must happen for them to loss out:
1, None of these players wins: TY, Rogue, inno, zest, stats, trap, cure, maru, parting and dark.
Then 3 out of 4 below happened
1a, Cure have at least RO8,
1b, Maru have at least RO8
1c, parting at least RO4
1d, Dark or solar at RO2
2, if 1 is not fulfilled (i.e one of those players wins), then all 4 condition above must be fulfilled for Trap to loss out.
DRG
For DRG, he can only be in if 1 of 3 condition happens:
1, He win. or
2, He is in RO2, which put his point total to 1240, while the following (either all of 2a or 2b is fulfilled) happen:
2a1, One of the current top 10 players, i.e. TY, Rogue, Stats etc. all the way to dark, wins.
2a2, either one of below happen (while not contradicting 2a1):
2a2.1, parting fail to progress to RO8,
2a2.2, dark fail to get to RO4,
2b, if none of the current top 10 player wins, then both of below must happen for DRG to be in RO24:
2b1, parting fail to progress to RO8,
2b2, dark fail to get to RO4,
3, if DRG is in RO4, which put his point total to 1060, while the following (all) happen in order for him to get into RO24:
3a1, One of the current top 9 players, i.e. TY, Rogue, Stats etc. all the way to parting, wins.
3a2, dark at rank 13-16
3a3, solar at rank 9 or below
Cure
For Cure, if he get to RO8, he will be in irrespective of other result because of bracket draw, it is not possible to get Dark to RO2 and both maru and parting to RO4, which mean not enough players to bump Cure out of top 9.
If cure get below RO8, then:
1, if none of the top 12 player (TY to Solar) win, and if 3 of 4 stated below happens, cure is out, otherwise he is in:
1a, solar in RO2,
1b, Dark get to RO4,
1c, parting get to RO8,
1d, Maru get higher finish than Cure.
2, if one of the top 12 player (TY to Solar) win, and all of below stated below happen (while not contradicting this statement), cure is out, otherwise he is in:
2a, solar in RO2,
2b, Dark get to RO4,
2c, parting get to RO8,
2d, Maru get higher finish than Cure.
Maru
Maru will be in if he reaches RO4.
He will also be in if the following happen:
1, if none of top 12 player win, and if 2 of 3 below is fulfilled:
1a, parting rank below RO8,
1b, Dark rank below RO4,
1c, Solar rank below RO2;
Or, if one of the top 12 player wins, and 1 of below condition fulfilled.
1a, parting rank below RO8,
1b, Dark rank below RO4,
1c, Solar rank below RO2;
If maru finish at RO8, and either:
1, one of top 9 player wins; or
2, none of the top 9 player wins, and either Dark fail to get to RO2 or Parting fail to get to RO4 will see Maru in top 9 (RO24).
Solar
There are a few scenarios where Solar can get in RO24:
1, if one of top 9 player wins and Solar get to RO8, and both of below:
1a, dark get rank 13-16,
1b, DRG not finishing RO2,
2, if one of top 9 player wins and Solar get to RO4, and 2 of 3 below
2a, dark finish lower than RO4,
2b, DRG not finishing RO2,
2c, parting finish 13-16,
3, if none of the top 9 player wins and Solar get to RO4, and both of below:
3a, parting finish rank 13-16,
3b, dark finish lower than RO4,
4, if Solar get to RO2, irrespective of other results
Parting
Parting will be in if the following scenario:
Scenario 1, if parting finish at rank 13-16 and none of the top 9 player wins and all of below:
1a, Dark did not finish at RO8 or above,
1b, DRG did not finish at RO2 or above,
1c, Solar did not finish at RO4 or above,
Scenario 2, if parting finish at rank 13-16 and one of the top 9 player wins and 2 of below:
2a, Dark did not finish at RO8 or above,
2b, DRG did not finish at RO2 or above,
2c, Solar did not finish at RO4 or above,
Scenario 3, if parting finish at rank 9-12 and none of the top 9 player wins and all of below:
3a, Dark did not finish at RO4 or above,
3b, Solar did not finish at RO2 or above
Scenario 4, if parting finish at rank 9-12 and one of the top 9 player wins and one of below:
4a, Dark did not finish at RO4 or above,
4b, Solar did not finish at RO2 or above
Scenario 5, if parting finish at RO8 and none of the top 9 player wins and 2 of below:
5a, Solar does not get to RO2,
5b, Dark does not get to RO4,
5c, maru does not get to RO8,
5d, Cure does not get to RO8,
Scenario 6, if parting finish at RO8 and one of the top 9 player wins and 1 of below:
6a, Solar does not get to RO2,
6b, Dark does not get to RO4,
6c, maru does not get to RO8,
6d, Cure does not get to RO8,
Scenario 7, Pating get to RO4 or above.
Dark
There are several scenarios for Dark to stay in RO24:
Scenario 1, Dark reach RO2,
Scenario 2, Dark reach RO4 and one of top nine player win, and 1 of the following
2a, Cure, does not reach RO8,
2b, Maru, does not reach RO8,
2c, Parting, does not reach RO8,
2d, Solar does not reach RO2,
Scenario 3, Dark reach RO4 and none of top nine player win, and 2 of the following
3a, Cure, does not reach RO8,
3b, Maru, does not reach RO8,
3c, Parting, does not reach RO8,
3d, Solar does not reach RO2,
Scenario 4, Dark reach RO8 and one of top nine player win, and 2 of the following
4a, Solar does not reach RO4,
4b, DRG does not reach RO2,
4c, Parting does not reach rank 9-12,
Scenario 5, Dark reach RO8 and none of top nine player win, and 1 of the following
5a, Solar does not reach RO4,
5b, DRG does not reach RO2,
5c, Parting does not reach rank 9-12,
Scenario 6, Dark reach Rank 9-12 and one of top nine player win, and the following
6a, Solar does not reach RO4,
6b, DRG does not reach RO2,
Scenario 7, Dark reach Rank 13-16 and one of top nine player win, and the following
7a, Solar does not reach RO8,
7b, DRG does not reach RO4,
As for RO36, currently occupying the top 18 spot (exclude those non-Korean region player and impending military service player, the 2 last player in is Bunny (458pts) and RagnaroK (448pts). Only 2 players below them are in GSL season 3, Zoun (318 pts) and BuyN (150pts).
If Zoun get to GSL RO8, he will be in RO36 and RagnaroK will miss out.
If BuyN get to GSL RO4, he will be in and RagnaroK out.
If zoun get to GSL RO8 and BuyN not reach GSL RO2, Zoun and Bunny in and buyn and ragnarok out.
If zoun get to GSL RO8 and BuyN reach GSL RO2, they both in and bunny and ragnarok out.