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As the DH fall concluded (except for the season final), it is a good time to review the qualifier, and extrapolate / estimate what needs to be done for the players to get into the global final.
Obviously, there are still 2 DH master event (total of 4 DH master event planned in the beginning), IEM China (not confirmed but probably have an equivalent as substitute should it be cancelled?), a king of battle (global event, according to liquidpedia), and a lot of weekly cups, there are still large room to get EPT point. However this is exactly why we need a little review to see where we at, if everything are done and dusted, there is no point reviewing, is it?
First of all, if you are not familiar with the qualification system (I guess not many of you), please read this liquidpedia page for info ESL Pro Tour/2020/21
As you can see from the page, depending on the EPT point, player can qualify directly into RO24 or RO36 with the distribution as follow : RO24 RO36 EU 5 2 NA 2 1 CN 1 1 LA 1 1 OCE 0 1 SEA 0 1 Kor 9 8
The standing as of this post are: ESL Pro Tour/2020/21/Standings
To simplify the analysis, the below analysis is done without consideration of global event, or weekly cup, also with the assumption that the forth DH master event is the same as the other three. (I will explain the rationale behind this assumption later, just bear with me for the moment XD )
Let me discuss the RO24 situation first.
May be start with the most clear cut region: LA and CN.
After winning the region final twice, TIME (CN) and SpeCial (LA) are all but qualified. In order for the second place player to overtake them, the second place player , Cyan or Jieshi (CN); Kelazhur (LA) need to at least win the the remaining regional final twice and hope TIME or SpeCial fail to pick up any points in the remaining seasons.
For NA, it is Neeb (674pts), Astrea (658pts) and Scarlett (560 pts), in the top 3 with about 100 points differences between them. This means they are basically tied in this race, whoever doing better in the remaining regional final is going to advance to the RO24. For the rest of the pack, Future (215pts) and Nina(145pts) may have an outside chance, but they will need to at least get a win or 2 second place finish in the 2 remaining seasons to have any chance.
For EU, Serral and Reynor qualified in RO24, there is not enough points to get them below rank 5 in the ranking. Clem and Heromarine is quite safe, with point difference to 6th place player uThermal of 430 and 330 respectively, while unlikely, it is still possible for them to lose out in the RO24. The current 5th place player showtime is a bit less certain, while having about 200-250 point advantage to uThermal and Ptitdrogo, the player currently on 6th and 7th place, if showtime perform poorly in the remaining season(s), he could easily loss out, although showtime have a buffer of losing out 1-2 round(s) earlier than either of them and still retain the spot. For the 5 players (uThermal, Ptitdrogo, marinelord, elazer, and mana) below showtime, they have 200-300 point difference compared to showtime, if they are to get into RO24, they will need to do well in the remaining seasons, probably with at least one 4th place finish or twice 6th place finish.
After discussion RO24, lets take a look at the race to RO36. While the race to RO24 for LA and CN is pretty much done, the race to RO36 is much more wide open, in both region, there is practically no point difference between the 2nd place and 3rd place player, and the 4th and 5th place player are pretty much still in the race. It will be interesting to see who actually get out, the race probably not finish until the last season.
For NA, the opposite happened, while the race to RO24 is wide open, the race to RO36 is pretty much closed. While it is still possible for the 4th and 5th place player to get to 3rd place (the only RO36 spot for the region), it will require them at least a win, or 2 second place finish to get to 3rd rank. Guess what, that is the same condition as getting to RO24. That means they are either in RO24 race or not in any race at all.
For OCE and SEA, the top 2 players (for OCE: Risky and Probe; SEA: Has and Nice) have a point difference that is negligible in the sense that the player who win the race have to win at least one, possibly both of the season in order to secure RO24.
Last but not least EU. The point difference between rank 7 (the last RO36 spot) player PtitDrogo and rank 10 player MaNa is just mere 30 points. That practically have no difference unless they fail to progress pass EU RO16 in the remaining seasons. It will be interesting to see the race unfold. It almost definitely bound to be decided until the last day of the last season.
Before I go, I would like to talk a little about the rationale about my analysis. While it is not officially confirmed the remaining season, especially season 4, is the same, and I have neglected global event and weekly cups, however, for the players that failed to win, or get deep into the run in their respective region, it is hard to see them getting much if anything from the global event, for those who get deep run, or won in the region final, they are almost secured their place already and further adding point from global tournament is not required in this analysis
The same can be said for weekly cups as one would need to face player of the calibre of Clem / Reynor / Heromarine / Parting /Solar in RO 4 in weekly cups. It would be easier to achieve the required point from doing well in the regional final than consistently winning the weekly cups. My analysis is more likely to be optimistic estimation than pessimistic estimation. Having said that, it is not over until the fat lady sing. For those who want to get to the global final, keep going. I will keep watching as many game as possible next season.
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Hey realy nice analysis, I m somewhat of a standings Nerd myselve and just wonderd if there would be some players allready guaranteed at this point and time.
Now also do the analysis for GSL, as the last Season is allready in full swing and we just got our Ro16 groups confirmed? :D
E: Also for SEA 2 Players qualify for Ro36, so I gues there isn t realy any race for the final Season, it s only for the seeding.
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Germany333 Posts
Hi,
a nice TRY at an analysis, BUT:
- the points distr. for the January global event is still TBD, alone from this fact no one is safely qualified from a strict point of view - there is NO 4th season - there might be more global events - SEA gets 2 seeds in Ro36, not one - some other minor mistakes
We (liquipedia contributors) might do a little write up about the possible outcomes once the points distribution for the January global event is announced.
Also something important: it is LIQUIPEDIA not liquidpedia, only one D!!!
~hjpalpha
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While on the topic of discussing the standings, as a GSL elitist I would love to discuss the korean standings =)
The prime 6 seeds into RO24 seems to be hotly contested, looking bleak for Maru and Dark if they don't advance from the group of death. That group actually seems pretty pivotal for how the first 6 seeds will look.
If ByuN or Zoun does well they could actually leap into the R36 seeds actually which would be really cool. Bunny, Ragna, sOs and Patience just need a bit of luck and hopefully good results in the rest of the global events otherwise they are at risk of missing out.
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On September 17 2020 23:18 Shuffleblade wrote: While on the topic of discussing the standings, as a GSL elitist I would love to discuss the korean standings =)
The prime 6 seeds into RO24 seems to be hotly contested, looking bleak for Maru and Dark if they don't advance from the group of death. That group actually seems pretty pivotal for how the first 6 seeds will look.
If ByuN or Zoun does well they could actually leap into the R36 seeds actually which would be really cool. Bunny, Ragna, sOs and Patience just need a bit of luck and hopefully good results in the rest of the global events otherwise they are at risk of missing out. It s actually 7 seeds for Ro24, as Rogue won both a Code S and Katowice, so there is one extra spot from Seedings Meaning Right now: Qualified from Kato: Rogue Qualified from Code S S1: TY Qualified from Code S S2: no one, extra Seed is given Qualified from Code S S3: TBD Would qualify to Ro24 from Seeding right now (7): Inno Zest Stats Trap Cure Maru PartinG
Seeded in Ro36 as of now (8): Dark, Solar, DRG, sOs, Dream, Armani, Hurricane, Bunny (if one of thes above Players wins S3: Ragnarok)
E.: It s still possible that both Zest and Stats aren t allowed to actually travel, so there might be some changes coming up, independent of the tournament results.
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Germany333 Posts
On September 17 2020 23:37 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2020 23:18 Shuffleblade wrote: While on the topic of discussing the standings, as a GSL elitist I would love to discuss the korean standings =)
The prime 6 seeds into RO24 seems to be hotly contested, looking bleak for Maru and Dark if they don't advance from the group of death. That group actually seems pretty pivotal for how the first 6 seeds will look.
If ByuN or Zoun does well they could actually leap into the R36 seeds actually which would be really cool. Bunny, Ragna, sOs and Patience just need a bit of luck and hopefully good results in the rest of the global events otherwise they are at risk of missing out. It s actually 7 seeds for Ro24, as Rogue won both a Code S and Katowice, so there is one extra spot from Seedings Meaning Right now: Qualified from Kato: Rogue Qualified from Code S S1: TY Qualified from Code S S2: no one, extra Seed is given Qualified from Code S S3: TBD Would qualify to Ro24 from Seeding right now (7): Inno Zest Stats Trap Cure Maru PartinG Seeded in Ro36 as of now (8): Dark, Solar, DRG, sOs, Dream, Armani, Hurricane, Bunny (if one of thes above Players wins S3: Ragnarok) E.: It s still possible that both Zest and Stats aren t allowed to actually travel, so there might be some changes coming up, independent of the tournament results.
And the winner of the Global event in January also gets a direct Ro24 seed.
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On September 18 2020 00:00 hjpalpha wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2020 23:37 dbRic1203 wrote:On September 17 2020 23:18 Shuffleblade wrote: While on the topic of discussing the standings, as a GSL elitist I would love to discuss the korean standings =)
The prime 6 seeds into RO24 seems to be hotly contested, looking bleak for Maru and Dark if they don't advance from the group of death. That group actually seems pretty pivotal for how the first 6 seeds will look.
If ByuN or Zoun does well they could actually leap into the R36 seeds actually which would be really cool. Bunny, Ragna, sOs and Patience just need a bit of luck and hopefully good results in the rest of the global events otherwise they are at risk of missing out. It s actually 7 seeds for Ro24, as Rogue won both a Code S and Katowice, so there is one extra spot from Seedings Meaning Right now: Qualified from Kato: Rogue Qualified from Code S S1: TY Qualified from Code S S2: no one, extra Seed is given Qualified from Code S S3: TBD Would qualify to Ro24 from Seeding right now (7): Inno Zest Stats Trap Cure Maru PartinG Seeded in Ro36 as of now (8): Dark, Solar, DRG, sOs, Dream, Armani, Hurricane, Bunny (if one of thes above Players wins S3: Ragnarok) E.: It s still possible that both Zest and Stats aren t allowed to actually travel, so there might be some changes coming up, independent of the tournament results. And the winner of the Global event in January also gets a direct Ro24 seed. Yeah, but doesn t matter here, as that s going to be MaxPax of course. Completly forgot that one gave a seed as well tbh. In my mind that was more like TSL/ Doyou/ Kubo in terms of Points etc.
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On September 17 2020 23:07 hjpalpha wrote: Hi,
a nice TRY at an analysis, BUT:
- the points distr. for the January global event is still TBD, alone from this fact no one is safely qualified from a strict point of view - there is NO 4th season - there might be more global events - SEA gets 2 seeds in Ro36, not one - some other minor mistakes
We (liquipedia contributors) might do a little write up about the possible outcomes once the points distribution for the January global event is announced.
Also something important: it is LIQUIPEDIA not liquidpedia, only one D!!!
~hjpalpha
1, For the January global event, there is no announcement about the point system yet, so I cannot disagree if you are saying no one is officially confirmed as qualified. However, if you use the point system of IEM katowice, which is the event with highest point for any event, you will still have hard time (if at all possible) to find a situation to get 5 EU player getting more point than Serral and Reynor, even if you assume they sit out all the event. Or in the case of LA or CN, the second place player will have to get to at least RO16, or RO4 if they do not fullfill the estimation (winning the region with the 1st place player sit out). So I would say realistically, it is safe to say they are qualified.
2, There are no announcement of season 4. I was under the impression that they will do 4 seasons, which mirror WCS event. Before ESL move everything online, the announcement was they are doing 4 DH master events? May be they won't do the 4th season, may be at the time of the decision, they want to wait a little more for the situation to clear up before making the decision.
However, if the current pandemic situation is not resolved (which to be honest, it probably won't), ESL would have no choice but either do not do the 4th season, or to continue with season 4 in the same format as these 3 seasons.
If ESL do not do the 4th season, the analysis is going to be a lot simplier XD. Also, even if they return with a WCS style event for the last one, the player who is on top by now (serral , reynor, special etc. ) would most likely be safe since they are much more likely than the other players in their respective region to get deep into the tournment. If we use the point system of IEM Katowice as a reference point (which have higher point than normal WCS event and the original DH master event point distribution), it is still very difficult to find a situation where you can get 5 players to get to a point total that are higher than serral or reynor even if you assume they sit out all the event, let alone the "non global event" is very unlikely to have a point system with same or higher than the global event.
3, As stated in my last post, if the player cannot get deep run in the regional tournament, it is very unlikely for the said player to qualify, or getting deep run in global tournament. While there might be more global tournament for the player to get point, it is better for them to focus on getting result from the regional tournament instead.
4, Sorry, my eyes are bad, mistaken 2 as 1 in the SEA XD
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On September 18 2020 00:37 mounteast0 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2020 23:07 hjpalpha wrote: Hi,
a nice TRY at an analysis, BUT:
- the points distr. for the January global event is still TBD, alone from this fact no one is safely qualified from a strict point of view - there is NO 4th season - there might be more global events - SEA gets 2 seeds in Ro36, not one - some other minor mistakes
We (liquipedia contributors) might do a little write up about the possible outcomes once the points distribution for the January global event is announced.
Also something important: it is LIQUIPEDIA not liquidpedia, only one D!!!
~hjpalpha 1, For the January global event, there is no announcement about the point system yet, so I cannot disagree if you are saying no one is officially confirmed as qualified. However, if you use the point system of IEM katowice, which is the event with highest point for any event, you will still have hard time (if at all possible) to find a situation to get 5 EU player getting more point than Serral and Reynor, even if you assume they sit out all the event. Or in the case of LA or CN, the second place player will have to get to at least RO16, or RO4 if they do not fullfill the estimation (winning the region with the 1st place player sit out). So I would say realistically, it is safe to say they are qualified. 2, There are no announcement of season 4. I was under the impression that they will do 4 seasons, which mirror WCS event. Before ESL move everything online, the announcement was they are doing 4 DH master events? May be they won't do the 4th season, may be at the time of the decision, they want to wait a little more for the situation to clear up before making the decision. However, if the current pandemic situation is not resolved (which to be honest, it probably won't), ESL would have no choice but either do not do the 4th season, or to continue with season 4 in the same format as these 3 seasons. If ESL do not do the 4th season, the analysis is going to be a lot simplier XD. Also, even if they return with a WCS style event for the last one, the player who is on top by now (serral , reynor, special etc. ) would most likely be safe since they are much more likely than the other players in their respective region to get deep into the tournment. If we use the point system of IEM Katowice as a reference point (which have higher point than normal WCS event and the original DH master event point distribution), it is still very difficult to find a situation where you can get 5 players to get to a point total that are higher than serral or reynor even if you assume they sit out all the event, let alone the "non global event" is very unlikely to have a point system with same or higher than the global event. 3, As stated in my last post, if the player cannot get deep run in the regional tournament, it is very unlikely for the said player to qualify, or getting deep run in global tournament. While there might be more global tournament for the player to get point, it is better for them to focus on getting result from the regional tournament instead. 4, Sorry, my eyes are bad, mistaken 2 as 1 in the SEA XD
You are talking in terms of "most likely" and "realistically". Those terms don t matter for hijpalpha, as he s looking only for mathematically 100% confirmed qulification spots, as those matter for the liquipedia sprreadsheet (wich has been periodically more accurate than the official ranking by ESL btw) For that purpose, someone is guaranteed, when he still qualifies with 0 extra points and all other players just make a marginally better run to land infront of them, no matter how unlikely you or me or everyone might think it is. So as long as the points distribution isn t announced, there is no one mathematically qualified over points. And it has been announced, that there are only 3 EPT seasons. EPT is not WCS, so just assuming it s going to be the same doesn t realy work here. Also everthing pre corona was thrown over boarded for obvious reasons, so there is no point in looking into the old format either.
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On September 17 2020 23:37 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2020 23:18 Shuffleblade wrote: While on the topic of discussing the standings, as a GSL elitist I would love to discuss the korean standings =)
The prime 6 seeds into RO24 seems to be hotly contested, looking bleak for Maru and Dark if they don't advance from the group of death. That group actually seems pretty pivotal for how the first 6 seeds will look.
If ByuN or Zoun does well they could actually leap into the R36 seeds actually which would be really cool. Bunny, Ragna, sOs and Patience just need a bit of luck and hopefully good results in the rest of the global events otherwise they are at risk of missing out. It s actually 7 seeds for Ro24, as Rogue won both a Code S and Katowice, so there is one extra spot from Seedings Meaning Right now: Qualified from Kato: Rogue Qualified from Code S S1: TY Qualified from Code S S2: no one, extra Seed is given Qualified from Code S S3: TBD Would qualify to Ro24 from Seeding right now (7): Inno Zest Stats Trap Cure Maru PartinG Seeded in Ro36 as of now (8): Dark, Solar, DRG, sOs, Dream, Armani, Hurricane, Bunny (if one of thes above Players wins S3: Ragnarok) E.: It s still possible that both Zest and Stats aren t allowed to actually travel, so there might be some changes coming up, independent of the tournament results.
I would love to do the GSL analysis now, and to be honest, what make me want to do this analysis is what the possible situation regarding GSL in the first place. I believe that issue, although being an non issue in term of who will win the global final, it might warrant some discussion way before the event actual happen.
Apart from TY and Rogue who is confirmed because of GSL / IEM winner, there is not much can be certain .
Remaining spot are GSL 3 winner and 7 highest point player will go into RO24, next 8 highest point player will go to RO36.
If you look at the liquipedia page, everyone at top 18 is still in GSL season 3, that alone make it very difficult to say who will be in RO24 at this moment.
However, the interesting part, when you look closely at that page, you will find serral, soo, dear and special at top 18. Of course they are not going to global final via this route, more specific, soo and dear is not going, serral and special will use his EU /LA spot. The next players in line is reynor (via EU spot), armani, hurricane, bunny, ragnarok, showtime (EU), heromarine (EU), Scarlett.
While I believe Reynor showtime and heromarine are very likely to get EU spot into RO24, scarlett's situation is not as clear. At this moment, after deducting those who are not going / cannot go due to military service requirement to global via GSL route, scarlett is still not within the RO36 qualification via GSL route. However, if more person require to go to military service, or Korean win the second global event (second IEM event), she might be within the RO36 qualification via GSL route. If that happens, and if she only get RO36 qualification via NA route, is there any rule stating what she could do? Could she just take the korea spot and let another NA player get the NA 3rd spot? While the probability of these chain of event happening might not be that high, it is still a possibility that could happen, right?
Obiviously, if BuyN win GSL season 3, then this won't happen, right?
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On September 18 2020 00:43 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2020 00:37 mounteast0 wrote:On September 17 2020 23:07 hjpalpha wrote: Hi,
a nice TRY at an analysis, BUT:
- the points distr. for the January global event is still TBD, alone from this fact no one is safely qualified from a strict point of view - there is NO 4th season - there might be more global events - SEA gets 2 seeds in Ro36, not one - some other minor mistakes
We (liquipedia contributors) might do a little write up about the possible outcomes once the points distribution for the January global event is announced.
Also something important: it is LIQUIPEDIA not liquidpedia, only one D!!!
~hjpalpha 1, For the January global event, there is no announcement about the point system yet, so I cannot disagree if you are saying no one is officially confirmed as qualified. However, if you use the point system of IEM katowice, which is the event with highest point for any event, you will still have hard time (if at all possible) to find a situation to get 5 EU player getting more point than Serral and Reynor, even if you assume they sit out all the event. Or in the case of LA or CN, the second place player will have to get to at least RO16, or RO4 if they do not fullfill the estimation (winning the region with the 1st place player sit out). So I would say realistically, it is safe to say they are qualified. 2, There are no announcement of season 4. I was under the impression that they will do 4 seasons, which mirror WCS event. Before ESL move everything online, the announcement was they are doing 4 DH master events? May be they won't do the 4th season, may be at the time of the decision, they want to wait a little more for the situation to clear up before making the decision. However, if the current pandemic situation is not resolved (which to be honest, it probably won't), ESL would have no choice but either do not do the 4th season, or to continue with season 4 in the same format as these 3 seasons. If ESL do not do the 4th season, the analysis is going to be a lot simplier XD. Also, even if they return with a WCS style event for the last one, the player who is on top by now (serral , reynor, special etc. ) would most likely be safe since they are much more likely than the other players in their respective region to get deep into the tournment. If we use the point system of IEM Katowice as a reference point (which have higher point than normal WCS event and the original DH master event point distribution), it is still very difficult to find a situation where you can get 5 players to get to a point total that are higher than serral or reynor even if you assume they sit out all the event, let alone the "non global event" is very unlikely to have a point system with same or higher than the global event. 3, As stated in my last post, if the player cannot get deep run in the regional tournament, it is very unlikely for the said player to qualify, or getting deep run in global tournament. While there might be more global tournament for the player to get point, it is better for them to focus on getting result from the regional tournament instead. 4, Sorry, my eyes are bad, mistaken 2 as 1 in the SEA XD You are talking in terms of "most likely" and "realistically". Those terms don t matter for hijpalpha, as he s looking only for mathematically 100% confirmed qulification spots, as those matter for the liquipedia sprreadsheet (wich has been periodically more accurate than the official ranking by ESL btw) For that purpose, someone is guaranteed, when he still qualifies with 0 extra points and all other players just make a marginally better run to land infront of them, no matter how unlikely you or me or everyone might think it is. So as long as the points distribution isn t announced, there is no one mathematically qualified over points. And it has been announced, that there are only 3 EPT seasons. EPT is not WCS, so just assuming it s going to be the same doesn t realy work here. Also everthing pre corona was thrown over boarded for obvious reasons, so there is no point in looking into the old format either.
ok, fair enough, luckily for me, this is a forum and I am not maintaining the liquipedia page
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Germany333 Posts
On September 18 2020 00:37 mounteast0 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2020 23:07 hjpalpha wrote: Hi,
a nice TRY at an analysis, BUT:
- the points distr. for the January global event is still TBD, alone from this fact no one is safely qualified from a strict point of view - there is NO 4th season - there might be more global events - SEA gets 2 seeds in Ro36, not one - some other minor mistakes
We (liquipedia contributors) might do a little write up about the possible outcomes once the points distribution for the January global event is announced.
Also something important: it is LIQUIPEDIA not liquidpedia, only one D!!!
~hjpalpha 1, For the January global event, there is no announcement about the point system yet, so I cannot disagree if you are saying no one is officially confirmed as qualified. However, if you use the point system of IEM katowice, which is the event with highest point for any event, you will still have hard time (if at all possible) to find a situation to get 5 EU player getting more point than Serral and Reynor, even if you assume they sit out all the event. Or in the case of LA or CN, the second place player will have to get to at least RO16, or RO4 if they do not fullfill the estimation (winning the region with the 1st place player sit out). So I would say realistically, it is safe to say they are qualified.
It is most likely they are qualified, not safe.
2, There are no announcement of season 4. I was under the impression that they will do 4 seasons, which mirror WCS event. Before ESL move everything online, the announcement was they are doing 4 DH master events? May be they won't do the 4th season, may be at the time of the decision, they want to wait a little more for the situation to clear up before making the decision.
However, if the current pandemic situation is not resolved (which to be honest, it probably won't), ESL would have no choice but either do not do the 4th season, or to continue with season 4 in the same format as these 3 seasons.
If ESL do not do the 4th season, the analysis is going to be a lot simplier XD. Also, even if they return with a WCS style event for the last one, the player who is on top by now (serral , reynor, special etc. ) would most likely be safe since they are much more likely than the other players in their respective region to get deep into the tournment. If we use the point system of IEM Katowice as a reference point (which have higher point than normal WCS event and the original DH master event point distribution), it is still very difficult to find a situation where you can get 5 players to get to a point total that are higher than serral or reynor even if you assume they sit out all the event, let alone the "non global event" is very unlikely to have a point system with same or higher than the global event.
Pre Corona it was 4 seasons with a completely different format. But due to Corona format changed and now it is 3 seasons. Which should be pretty obvious from taking a look at either the Liquipedia pages you linked above (on the Overview page it says 3 seasons and on the standings pages it is 3 seasons as well) or at the official EPT page.
3, As stated in my last post, if the player cannot get deep run in the regional tournament, it is very unlikely for the said player to qualify, or getting deep run in global tournament. While there might be more global tournament for the player to get point, it is better for them to focus on getting result from the regional tournament instead.
Which doesn't change anything about them mathematically not being safe yet.
4, Sorry, my eyes are bad, mistaken 2 as 1 in the SEA XD
Can happen.^^
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Czech Republic12115 Posts
On September 17 2020 23:37 dbRic1203 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On September 17 2020 23:18 Shuffleblade wrote: While on the topic of discussing the standings, as a GSL elitist I would love to discuss the korean standings =)
The prime 6 seeds into RO24 seems to be hotly contested, looking bleak for Maru and Dark if they don't advance from the group of death. That group actually seems pretty pivotal for how the first 6 seeds will look.
If ByuN or Zoun does well they could actually leap into the R36 seeds actually which would be really cool. Bunny, Ragna, sOs and Patience just need a bit of luck and hopefully good results in the rest of the global events otherwise they are at risk of missing out. It s actually 7 seeds for Ro24, as Rogue won both a Code S and Katowice, so there is one extra spot from Seedings Meaning Right now: Qualified from Kato: Rogue Qualified from Code S S1: TY Qualified from Code S S2: no one, extra Seed is given Qualified from Code S S3: TBD Would qualify to Ro24 from Seeding right now (7): Inno Zest Stats Trap Cure Maru PartinG Seeded in Ro36 as of now (8): Dark, Solar, DRG, sOs, Dream, Armani, Hurricane, Bunny (if one of thes above Players wins S3: Ragnarok) E.: It s still possible that both Zest and Stats aren t allowed to actually travel, so there might be some changes coming up, independent of the tournament results. That implies travelling will be possible at all.
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Germany333 Posts
On September 18 2020 02:24 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2020 23:37 dbRic1203 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On September 17 2020 23:18 Shuffleblade wrote: While on the topic of discussing the standings, as a GSL elitist I would love to discuss the korean standings =)
The prime 6 seeds into RO24 seems to be hotly contested, looking bleak for Maru and Dark if they don't advance from the group of death. That group actually seems pretty pivotal for how the first 6 seeds will look.
If ByuN or Zoun does well they could actually leap into the R36 seeds actually which would be really cool. Bunny, Ragna, sOs and Patience just need a bit of luck and hopefully good results in the rest of the global events otherwise they are at risk of missing out. It s actually 7 seeds for Ro24, as Rogue won both a Code S and Katowice, so there is one extra spot from Seedings Meaning Right now: Qualified from Kato: Rogue Qualified from Code S S1: TY Qualified from Code S S2: no one, extra Seed is given Qualified from Code S S3: TBD Would qualify to Ro24 from Seeding right now (7): Inno Zest Stats Trap Cure Maru PartinG Seeded in Ro36 as of now (8): Dark, Solar, DRG, sOs, Dream, Armani, Hurricane, Bunny (if one of thes above Players wins S3: Ragnarok) E.: It s still possible that both Zest and Stats aren t allowed to actually travel, so there might be some changes coming up, independent of the tournament results. That implies travelling will be possible at all.
Well currently the official plans are still Offline events in 2021, if it will change or not will depend on how Corona progresses.
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On September 17 2020 23:07 hjpalpha wrote:
Also something important: it is LIQUIPEDIA not liquidpedia, only one D!!!
~hjpalpha Also incorrect, it's licky piddy
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?36645 Posts
Thread title changed. All lowercase titles are my pet peeve.
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On September 18 2020 03:41 Seeker wrote: Thread title changed. All lowercase titles are my pet peeve. This is the type of moderation I have come to rely on
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On September 18 2020 01:11 mounteast0 wrote: If you look at the liquipedia page, everyone at top 18 is still in GSL season 3, that alone make it very difficult to say who will be in RO24 at this moment.
sOs Is not in the GSL season 3, he is out.
What I think is interesting right now (even though its early to look at this as the last spurt since there is multiple global events left) is how the current GSL groups will impact these standings. For example Stats, Maru and PartinG are all in the same group. If Maru or PartinG gets knocked out they likely out of the top seven, if Stats and PartinG knocks out Maru then PartinG passes Maru is points. Similarly if Maru and PartinG knocks out Stats then Maru ties Stats in points and if PartinG moves on to semis he passes them both. Stats has tons of points so he is probably safe anyway but PartinG and Maru isn't.
The group of death is particularly rough on Dark because everyone else in that group have enough points to be relatively safe unless the semis gets stacked with players below top 10.
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On September 18 2020 07:18 Shuffleblade wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2020 01:11 mounteast0 wrote: If you look at the liquipedia page, everyone at top 18 is still in GSL season 3, that alone make it very difficult to say who will be in RO24 at this moment.
sOs Is not in the GSL season 3, he is out. What I think is interesting right now (even though its early to look at this as the last spurt since there is multiple global events left) is how the current GSL groups will impact these standings. For example Stats, Maru and PartinG are all in the same group. If Maru or PartinG gets knocked out they likely out of the top seven, if Stats and PartinG knocks out Maru then PartinG passes Maru is points. Similarly if Maru and PartinG knocks out Stats then Maru ties Stats in points and if PartinG moves on to semis he passes them both. Stats has tons of points so he is probably safe anyway but PartinG and Maru isn't. The group of death is particularly rough on Dark because everyone else in that group have enough points to be relatively safe unless the semis gets stacked with players below top 10. The biggest factor in Korea standings is who will be and who won't be forced into military before Global Finals
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On September 18 2020 08:38 Cricketer12 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2020 07:18 Shuffleblade wrote:On September 18 2020 01:11 mounteast0 wrote: If you look at the liquipedia page, everyone at top 18 is still in GSL season 3, that alone make it very difficult to say who will be in RO24 at this moment.
sOs Is not in the GSL season 3, he is out. What I think is interesting right now (even though its early to look at this as the last spurt since there is multiple global events left) is how the current GSL groups will impact these standings. For example Stats, Maru and PartinG are all in the same group. If Maru or PartinG gets knocked out they likely out of the top seven, if Stats and PartinG knocks out Maru then PartinG passes Maru is points. Similarly if Maru and PartinG knocks out Stats then Maru ties Stats in points and if PartinG moves on to semis he passes them both. Stats has tons of points so he is probably safe anyway but PartinG and Maru isn't. The group of death is particularly rough on Dark because everyone else in that group have enough points to be relatively safe unless the semis gets stacked with players below top 10. The biggest factor in Korea standings is who will be and who won't be forced into military before Global Finals Wich realy is a shame
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Yeah, for projecting which Korean is going to global final, military service, future global tournament, and even weekly cups are going to have much bigger impact on GSL standing than the ESL circuit standing, the conclusion of analysis at this moment is probably not much use. However, it is still a fun exercise, so let do it 😊
Instead of projecting who will go to global final, this analysis becomes who will stay in qualifying spot after GSL season 3, not including any result from DH master fall global final.
TY and Rogue is qualified, there is no further analysis needed.
I will look at the “minimum” requirement, which is consider everything goes his way, what the player still have to achieve to get into the last seed, and I will look at the “most bad luck” situation, which is how the player can get in when every other result goes against that player. Then may be everything in between?
To clear things up, when I say the player is in, what I mean is he is still in the top 9 (for RO24) (top 7 if not counting TY and Rogue because their point total is irrelevant in this discussion), or top 18 (for RO36), not qualified.
For RO24, lets start with the simple first:
Innovation: He is in. Even he stays at 16th rank, to get the maximum number of players in front of him, it would take: zest to 12th rank, Stats and everyone below have to get to rank 4 or above in order to get above Inno. That put a maximum of 4 players (without GSL /IEM win) above inno (Zest, and the 2nd -4th place player of GSL season 3).
Zest: He is in. Similar to Inno, even if he stays at rank 16, there still not enough player to get him out of top 9 (top 7 point wise). Worse case for Zest would be Stats and Trap on RO8, Cure and Maru on RO4, Parting RO2, that put 6 players in front of Zest, he is in top 9 (top 7 point wise).
Buyn, zoun dream and Armani On the other hand, Buyn, zoun dream and Armani at least have to win the event to get into RO24, if they “only” get 2nd place, their point total will be 630, 798 1025 and 1000 respectively, which is still lower than the 10th place player total of 1055.
Stats For Stats, if he manages to get to rank 12, he is in, irrespective to whatever else happen. If he happened to be going out at rank 16, the following (all of below) must happen for him to loss out: 1, None of these players wins: TY, Rogue, inno, zest, stats, trap, cure, maru, parting and dark. 2, Cure have at least RO8, 3, parting at least RO4 4, Dark at RO2 5, Trap get to at least rank 12. 6, maru get to RO4 or RO8 (maru at RO8 would have tied in point with Stats, but I am not sure how the tie breaker rule is, so not sure if maru at RO8 is good enough to bump Stats out).
N.B. in order for dark to get to RO2, either parting or maru will have to loss out in RO8, so if maru cannot win the tie break, Stats is in even he does not progress.
Trap For trap, if he manages to get to rank 12, he is still in, irrespective to whatever else happen. If he happened to be going out at rank 16, the following (all of below) must happen for them to loss out: 1, None of these players wins: TY, Rogue, inno, zest, stats, trap, cure, maru, parting and dark. Then 3 out of 4 below happened 1a, Cure have at least RO8, 1b, Maru have at least RO8 1c, parting at least RO4 1d, Dark or solar at RO2 2, if 1 is not fulfilled (i.e one of those players wins), then all 4 condition above must be fulfilled for Trap to loss out.
DRG For DRG, he can only be in if 1 of 3 condition happens: 1, He win. or
2, He is in RO2, which put his point total to 1240, while the following (either all of 2a or 2b is fulfilled) happen: 2a1, One of the current top 10 players, i.e. TY, Rogue, Stats etc. all the way to dark, wins. 2a2, either one of below happen (while not contradicting 2a1): 2a2.1, parting fail to progress to RO8, 2a2.2, dark fail to get to RO4, 2b, if none of the current top 10 player wins, then both of below must happen for DRG to be in RO24: 2b1, parting fail to progress to RO8, 2b2, dark fail to get to RO4,
3, if DRG is in RO4, which put his point total to 1060, while the following (all) happen in order for him to get into RO24: 3a1, One of the current top 9 players, i.e. TY, Rogue, Stats etc. all the way to parting, wins. 3a2, dark at rank 13-16 3a3, solar at rank 9 or below
Cure For Cure, if he get to RO8, he will be in irrespective of other result because of bracket draw, it is not possible to get Dark to RO2 and both maru and parting to RO4, which mean not enough players to bump Cure out of top 9. If cure get below RO8, then: 1, if none of the top 12 player (TY to Solar) win, and if 3 of 4 stated below happens, cure is out, otherwise he is in: 1a, solar in RO2, 1b, Dark get to RO4, 1c, parting get to RO8, 1d, Maru get higher finish than Cure.
2, if one of the top 12 player (TY to Solar) win, and all of below stated below happen (while not contradicting this statement), cure is out, otherwise he is in: 2a, solar in RO2, 2b, Dark get to RO4, 2c, parting get to RO8, 2d, Maru get higher finish than Cure.
Maru Maru will be in if he reaches RO4.
He will also be in if the following happen: 1, if none of top 12 player win, and if 2 of 3 below is fulfilled: 1a, parting rank below RO8, 1b, Dark rank below RO4, 1c, Solar rank below RO2;
Or, if one of the top 12 player wins, and 1 of below condition fulfilled. 1a, parting rank below RO8, 1b, Dark rank below RO4, 1c, Solar rank below RO2;
If maru finish at RO8, and either: 1, one of top 9 player wins; or 2, none of the top 9 player wins, and either Dark fail to get to RO2 or Parting fail to get to RO4 will see Maru in top 9 (RO24).
Solar There are a few scenarios where Solar can get in RO24: 1, if one of top 9 player wins and Solar get to RO8, and both of below: 1a, dark get rank 13-16, 1b, DRG not finishing RO2, 2, if one of top 9 player wins and Solar get to RO4, and 2 of 3 below 2a, dark finish lower than RO4, 2b, DRG not finishing RO2, 2c, parting finish 13-16,
3, if none of the top 9 player wins and Solar get to RO4, and both of below: 3a, parting finish rank 13-16, 3b, dark finish lower than RO4,
4, if Solar get to RO2, irrespective of other results
Parting Parting will be in if the following scenario: Scenario 1, if parting finish at rank 13-16 and none of the top 9 player wins and all of below: 1a, Dark did not finish at RO8 or above, 1b, DRG did not finish at RO2 or above, 1c, Solar did not finish at RO4 or above,
Scenario 2, if parting finish at rank 13-16 and one of the top 9 player wins and 2 of below: 2a, Dark did not finish at RO8 or above, 2b, DRG did not finish at RO2 or above, 2c, Solar did not finish at RO4 or above,
Scenario 3, if parting finish at rank 9-12 and none of the top 9 player wins and all of below: 3a, Dark did not finish at RO4 or above, 3b, Solar did not finish at RO2 or above
Scenario 4, if parting finish at rank 9-12 and one of the top 9 player wins and one of below: 4a, Dark did not finish at RO4 or above, 4b, Solar did not finish at RO2 or above
Scenario 5, if parting finish at RO8 and none of the top 9 player wins and 2 of below: 5a, Solar does not get to RO2, 5b, Dark does not get to RO4, 5c, maru does not get to RO8, 5d, Cure does not get to RO8,
Scenario 6, if parting finish at RO8 and one of the top 9 player wins and 1 of below: 6a, Solar does not get to RO2, 6b, Dark does not get to RO4, 6c, maru does not get to RO8, 6d, Cure does not get to RO8,
Scenario 7, Pating get to RO4 or above.
Dark
There are several scenarios for Dark to stay in RO24: Scenario 1, Dark reach RO2,
Scenario 2, Dark reach RO4 and one of top nine player win, and 1 of the following 2a, Cure, does not reach RO8, 2b, Maru, does not reach RO8, 2c, Parting, does not reach RO8, 2d, Solar does not reach RO2,
Scenario 3, Dark reach RO4 and none of top nine player win, and 2 of the following 3a, Cure, does not reach RO8, 3b, Maru, does not reach RO8, 3c, Parting, does not reach RO8, 3d, Solar does not reach RO2,
Scenario 4, Dark reach RO8 and one of top nine player win, and 2 of the following 4a, Solar does not reach RO4, 4b, DRG does not reach RO2, 4c, Parting does not reach rank 9-12,
Scenario 5, Dark reach RO8 and none of top nine player win, and 1 of the following 5a, Solar does not reach RO4, 5b, DRG does not reach RO2, 5c, Parting does not reach rank 9-12,
Scenario 6, Dark reach Rank 9-12 and one of top nine player win, and the following 6a, Solar does not reach RO4, 6b, DRG does not reach RO2,
Scenario 7, Dark reach Rank 13-16 and one of top nine player win, and the following 7a, Solar does not reach RO8, 7b, DRG does not reach RO4,
As for RO36, currently occupying the top 18 spot (exclude those non-Korean region player and impending military service player, the 2 last player in is Bunny (458pts) and RagnaroK (448pts). Only 2 players below them are in GSL season 3, Zoun (318 pts) and BuyN (150pts). If Zoun get to GSL RO8, he will be in RO36 and RagnaroK will miss out. If BuyN get to GSL RO4, he will be in and RagnaroK out. If zoun get to GSL RO8 and BuyN not reach GSL RO2, Zoun and Bunny in and buyn and ragnarok out. If zoun get to GSL RO8 and BuyN reach GSL RO2, they both in and bunny and ragnarok out.
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On September 18 2020 07:18 Shuffleblade wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2020 01:11 mounteast0 wrote: If you look at the liquipedia page, everyone at top 18 is still in GSL season 3, that alone make it very difficult to say who will be in RO24 at this moment.
sOs Is not in the GSL season 3, he is out. What I think is interesting right now (even though its early to look at this as the last spurt since there is multiple global events left) is how the current GSL groups will impact these standings. For example Stats, Maru and PartinG are all in the same group. If Maru or PartinG gets knocked out they likely out of the top seven, if Stats and PartinG knocks out Maru then PartinG passes Maru is points. Similarly if Maru and PartinG knocks out Stats then Maru ties Stats in points and if PartinG moves on to semis he passes them both. Stats has tons of points so he is probably safe anyway but PartinG and Maru isn't. The group of death is particularly rough on Dark because everyone else in that group have enough points to be relatively safe unless the semis gets stacked with players below top 10.
Regarding sOs, my bad, I should have said "almost everyone" instead of "everyone", sorry.
After doing the projection, I found a interesting pattern in the sense that quite a few fringe case would have Solar and / or DRG reaching RO2 /RO4, for that reason, I believe the status for Maru, Dark, PartinG are not that bad (even if they get bop out of their group).
Also, if they progress, it is very likely that Maru, Dark, PartinG will face each other along the way. It is the extra plot line we would be able to enjoy.
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Wow, that is an impressive pice of work, you did there. Thank you very much
It s insane how close it still is for the spots, even when just looking at Code S alone and not looking at Kubo, TBA ESL Event, Season Finals, Weekly Cups and GSL ST..
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That was a heck of fun writeup =D
As you say there probably isn't that deep meaning in there since there is so much after GSL 3 that can happen but its still kind of crazy how much is on the line for some players in regards to standings straight after the event.
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