EPTMafia VII - GG
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Looking at the profiles, I think that the biggest clue in Day 1 has to be the gibberish on the TV. I'm leaning toward people with long, nonsensical profiles. Will do more detailed analysis when work slows down. (I work asia shift so this is worktime for me) | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On April 23 2009 10:23 semioldguy wrote: Are you insane!? It doesn't take that long to start analyzing behavior patterns. Behavior analysis was far and away more helpful than clue analysis in the last game which didn't even get halfway to Day 15. I think mafia will be smarter about that this game. Better to use other tactics, but most importantly don't let mafia know how (the ranking mechanism) town "core" comes to lynch decisions. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Ok so onto the project of killing Mafia--we need to figure out a systematic way of tracking the town. I'm going to PM some members about this. I don't want to share this method publicly, because I think that mafia would then figure out how to game the system. However, since some information it uses will have already happened and we can see post edits, I will say that these two probably will be parts of the analysis method. Also, we need to track clue patterns. We know that BC will not use the same mafioso to kill somebody in consecutive days. So we can use alternate day clues and split them. With clue patterns and knowledge of any suspicious townies, we will have a list. One suspicious strategy Blues should be worried about is the GF roleplaying detective and then roleclaiming to townies. It would be nearly impossible to thwart this strategy if he did it. However one way to thwart it would be to have everyone roleclaim to Qatol, then having Qatol serve as a hub for all information, sharing his information in pieces only with confirmed Blues (confirmed via detective). On mafia activity: If, of the actives here, at least one, maybe two or three are mafia, mafia can do one of two things: 1) They lynch a lot of the actives here. 2) They lynch inactives. 1) Kind of tilts toward mafia inactivity. To make sure this strategy has proper payoff, we need to create an active list and threaten lynch of people on the list if several are mafiakilled. E.g. list of 10 actives, then if more than 5 are killed, remaining 5 should be lynched. That would force mafia to target inactives, or if they continued targeting actives after the town makes that threat, then that is sure sign that mafia lurk in actives. 2) Tilts toward either inactivity or activity. There are enough inactives such that mafia may hide for a long time among inactives even if we lynch inactives. Also another idea: whenever we send PMs to one another concerning mafia, we both send a copy of the PM to Qatol. This will allow him to gradually build up a network of confirmed blues/townies with which to begin analysis. We can no longer rely on mafia remaining inactive. It's way too easy for the godfather or even regular mafia to be active and muss things up, so we should try to use a bunch of truth-telling mechanisms to ensure core discussion safety. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
We should come up with a list of players which match clues from Day 1, 3, 5, etc and from Day 2, 4, 6 etc (since mafioso alternate days) BC can you put this link on the front page? | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
We should try to punish people who have a disconnect between the two, and thus force people to put their money where their mouth is regarding mafia. This would make it much harder for a very bad situation to occur: where the mafia accuse one another publicly while cooperating privately, which would confuse us to no end with the loss of 2 DTs. Also, if town gets multiple confirmed mafia, it is better to kill the inactive ones first and leave the active ones to hyperventilate and see if we can draw out even more fish on the line. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
What about trust? I want to warn the town that this game, GFs/mafia have a much greater incentive to sacrifice 1-2 of their own members to gain trust with the town. Why? Because they have 5-6 mafia each, and their KP is only 3, and they have another family to worry about. Each mafia member matters less to KP than gaining the town's trust. The town can help them lynch out mafia and give them medic protection from the hits of the other mafia; this is worth much more than the measly 1/2 KP per player they get in my opinion. How can a mafia sacrifice themselves? Not by simply just accusing each other, but by deliberately lying low and altering behavior, then by having another mafia accuse them of it. The only analysis they can't change is BC's clues. Hence why I think we should look at those clues first and build lists based off of them, and go for behavioral analysis as a second tier we take with a HUGE grain of salt. With the above being said, I vote to lynch Monoxide because I think his clue analysis is strongest--succinct and direct. Also we should be focusing on the eye clue here that Ver posted about. Lets go profile hunting here, as that's where clues usually are drawn from. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Second--we got a lot of deaths but that means a lot of clues. We should break down the day post into the acts of different mafia, then come up with a list of nicknames for each mafia. All this will be based on clue patterns. See below. On May 01 2009 17:54 BloodyC0bbler wrote: ![[image loading]](http://robotsandvamps.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/caprica-01.jpg) Day 3 The town dispersed once more, fleeing for the safety. Some went to their homes, others to places they believed to be safe. Everyone thought they were safe, the clock had struck 2, and no sounds were yet to be heard, all was clear this night. With that in mind, Rage and truthbringer left the bar they had been hiding in. Rage walked down the street, gun in hand, with truthbringer following closely behind. As rage turned onto the block in which he lived, he heard a grunt from behind him, he turned and leveling his gun, saw a garrote wire around Truthbringers neck, and a figure standing closely behind him. He darted to the side to get a better shot, only to feel something slam into the back of his left leg, dropping him to the ground, as he turned his head to the side, he caught a quick glimpse of a man swinging a long object, caving rage head in. Quickly thereafter truthbringer head rolled across the sidewalk. Ok the big clue here is in the last two sentences--both talk about the head. Remember that's how bockit died too. Whose profile talks about the head a lot? Once we have a list based on that then we go for the auxiliary clues in this passage (like long object, and garrote). Across town, Fakesteve[tpr], amber[light], and infundibulum were staked out inside fakesteve’s house. The three had each taken up guard at different points in the house to prevent being hit. Fakesteve was in the living room, behind a couch, gun pointed at the largest window, waiting for mafia to attempt to enter. Amber[light] was at the top of the stairs with a rifle aimed at the front door, and Infundibulum had a shotgun aimed at the backdoor. The three waited in silence, for any sound of an attack. Amber[light] was the first to hear a sound, and slowly turning, he heard a creaking sound from a room down the hall. Cautiously he investigated, and slid into the room. He saw Fakesteve’s computer on, which he knew had been turned off hours earlier, so he moved around the room, looking for signs of entry. As he passed the desk he noticed a weird phrase on the screen. As amber[light] looked down from the computer, he noticed a figure under the desk, and a metal glint in his hand. Two silent shots later, amber[light] collapsed to the ground, and the man fired another shot into the body’s head for good measure. wierd phrases; unfortunately, the only one I can think of is uff da. Sorry Qatol =(. This mafia will be known as Mr. Incomprehensible. Infundibulum heard a thud from upstairs, and slowly started to back up, moving for the staircase to check on his friend. As he turned to the staircase, he noticed a man staring at him from the kitchen, he moved forward weapon in hand, and charged, and let a shot fire. The cupboards splintered open, and the man ducked to the side, and flew his arm out to the side waving an object at Infundibulum, with a wicked smile on his face. As the man hit the floor, infundibulum reloaded, then moving forward again, slipped on the debris on the ground, and dropped his gun, which hit the ground and fired, shredding Infundibulum’s chest. Here, Infundi is killed with his own weapon after stepping into a trap. Let's call him the "Jigsaw Killer", the guy from Saw who never directly murders anyone. That seems to be his hallmark and let's go for that. Fakesteve[tpr] never had a chance to retaliate; he turned towards the kitchen at the sound of shotgun fire, only to be enveloped in a black shroud. He felt an object glide through his shoulder and down to his heart, and something probe his jacket pockets before the void took him. Still thinking about this one. Three blocks away, Ace was gathering his things, and then lifting a hood over his head, he left his house, in search of clues towards the mafia hidden in the town. As he left his house, he saw a man, eyes wide open, shakily level a machine gun. Moment’s later ace was dead. Nervousness and overkill are the two themes for this mafioso. Also eyes wide open could imply something. Whose picture seems to imply that? This guy has the clearest set of clues--nervous, overkill, and overalert (possibly drugged). Let's call him "Lithium Man." Showtime! and laxercannon headed for the gunshots, hoping to be able to save whomever they could. As they ran, they saw a man hiccupping and swaying moving towards them. Showtime moved to see if he was ok, and moved his hands to steady him, the next thing Showtime! knew, he had a knife stuck in his chest. Laxercannon turned, and drawing a knife of his own he moved to attack the man, only to stop dead, as an arrow pierced his neck. As laxercannon fell, he saw a man stepping out of a nearby alley. Arrow? I'm looking toward blue_arrow here. As for the hiccupping man, he screams sneaky in some way (possible dark templar/ninja reference). Also hiccupping and swaying are signs of drunkenness. Still analyzing. [no clue area] Time to vote on who to lynch. vote here [/QUOTE] | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On May 03 2009 02:36 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: What the fuck? When the hell did we decide to go kill our mayor when we can wait a day or two and better determine his alignment? There is too many votes in favor of Qatol, although I think he might be mafia this is jumping the gun a bit. Too many votes for him now though :/ Also what the fuck is with the inactives coming out of the woodwork for this? Remember that there are two mafias, so we can judge by inactive voting who's on the enemy mafia of Qatol. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On May 03 2009 02:36 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: What the fuck? When the hell did we decide to go kill our mayor when we can wait a day or two and better determine his alignment? There is too many votes in favor of Qatol, although I think he might be mafia this is jumping the gun a bit. Too many votes for him now though :/ Also what the fuck is with the inactives coming out of the woodwork for this? Or better yet, if Qatol is not on the two mafias, then we've played both mafias into coming out with votes to try and lynch a member of the "opposing" mafias. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On May 03 2009 16:45 Camlito wrote: From: t_co Subject: CK Date: 5/1/09 09:08 Hi Camlito, Are you CK or Mafia? I'm CK. If you are mafia, please let other mafia know since I am not going with the town/Qatol. Best, t_co Reply ??? Ok guys, now that Camlito has fired the trigger it's time for me to make my case. WE SHOULD LYNCH QATOL . Here are the PMs I am referring to: Original Message: The problem is that with the list I gave you, I'm willing to bet that most of them aren't red. BC wouldn't make the game that imbalanced. I'll bet that only 1 or 2 of them are red. So you are trying to weed the mafiosos out of that list. The medic list is designed to keep the innocent members of that list alive (since all of them are extremely dangerous players). If we lose all of the innocent members of that list by letting the mafia kill them, the town is in really bad shape (even though it lets us kill the guilty ones). Am I making sense? If you can figure out a better list + reasoning, please let me know. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Why did you add those same people to the medic list tonight? That's pretty weird if you're suspicious of them. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Oh sorry. I totally misunderstood you. Hmm other players that you might want to contact. Ver, Camlito, showtime!, mikeymoo, caller, malongo. I think that takes care of most of the super-active/good players that aren't under heavy suspicion yet but are acting a little goofy. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Well I'm sending this request out to most actives at this point, so it's not that I think you have anything. You don't need to really "have" anything, I just need more than just 1 name to investigate at once or else the whole process kinda falls flat because 1) I *want* mafia to be talking about these PMs amongst each other and its easier if multiple members recieve it. 2) I want these PMs to reach the different families simultaneously. There are good strategic reasons for both of these (namely, they align with what a real CK would want to get out of these letters). Thanks and I hope that clears it up. Best, t_co Qatol asked me to fish for mafia in the same players he called for medic protection. The problem is, I assume he's not that retarded to think this is actually a method of fishing for mafia; namely, that he's trying to lend credibility to mafia by having them out me without *actually* killing me. By having an active come out with a message like this, then the mafia possibly gain a credible member. And by recommending these actives as recipients, he ensures that the plan can go through. In short, what Qatol is doing here is NOT WHAT A MAYOR SHOULD BE DOING. I intentionally structured my sample PM in such a way that he would think it was retarded and HE STILL LET IT THROUGH... to the same people on the medic list. He should be shot. I sent these to a lot of suspected mafia and now I'm going to go ahead and also point my finger at Camlito as suspected mafia, as only he came forward with the PM. The other thing I have against Qatol is clue analysis. This coming in a later post. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Chuiu is my stronger case here. I think he is mafia based on behavioral and clue factors. The clue is day 2 murder of Bockit. Chuiu's profile is one of the Brain from Pinky and the Brain. The Brain punishes Pinky by beating him over the head when he does something wrong, and does it repeatedly because Pinky is too retarded to realize it hurts and change his behavior. Bockit was killed by repeated bashing to the head. Similarly, rage was also killed by a bash to the head. Also, the Brain is a cruel little asshole, so I'm sure he would snicker at nemY's death. Behaviorally, I would imagine that someone who ran 5 previous mafia games would have something more to say in our threads than staying quiet. He should have extreme amounts of insight into the operations of the game, yet says nothing. Why? Dreamflower I think is mafia because he follows most of Qatol's votes, and usually changes his votes right after Qatol does. Also, I suspect he may be FakeSteve[TPR]'s murderer but I'm not sure if that's the case. More digging later. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Qatol (90%) Chuiu (80%) Lordweird (80%) Monoxide (75%) Dreamflower (shaky) | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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