EPTCan I /in?
Cell Mini Mafia II
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
Can I /in? | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
First I want to talk about urgent situations; the election process and determining group order. I am open to being elected as mayor. This post is going to inform you of the processes I have considered using to select group order, if I were mayor. I don't know who I'm voting for yet. It isn't important to me that I be elected. It is however important that the person I vote for comment on these processes I have come up with. I have already seen some comments about the role of the mayor not being important. I don't agree with those comments. This is an important decision. Mayor, as I see it, should be a tool that town uses to take early control and set the pace for the rest of the game so that mafia have to play by the rules town lays down. So, how does one as mayor determine group order? I have come up with several scenarios: - Lynch lowest "contributing" groups first. This has already been mentioned once in the thread. Nominations, filter length, post count, meta, etc. could all be used as metrics for "contribution." High contributing people will have the most content to analyze in the end game, so it is beneficial to keep them around longer. More data is better. - Analyze groups as though all three members could be mafia and lynch groups with "most mafia members." Conversely analyze groups as though all three members could be town and lynch groups with "least town members." Compare the two lists and check for differences. If three of the five mafia members could be in a single group, which group would you lynch first? - Everyone picks one "most likely to be mafia" from each group and compares. Sort according to who gets picked most. - "Easy" first. "Easy groups" meaning groups where there are two people working together against someone. - Lastly, my favorite option, all of the above. More data is better. I propose either to the mayor, or possibly as mayor, that we use a combination of these processes for the group selection procedure. Once group order is determined, we can decide who to lynch in each group. I have brainstormed the following situations: - Lynch for single "mistake"/"tell"/"scummy post"; important to use heated rhetoric and pressure of spotlight in this situation. - Lynch because agenda shows anti-town/pro-mafia pattern over time. Either voting pattern, tone/posting style, on the wrong side of arguments, etc. Next post if I can get around to it tonight is notes and practical applications. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
Cell A ritoky - I'm not a fan of the "murica" thing. It's cheap and fake. Also it removes accountability because later he can just say he was being silly and adding flavor. What I do like is that he was the first, and is as of writing this the only, candidate to publish a group order. Meapak_Ziphh - Teamed with ritoky immediately against thrawn. Most of his reasoning for teaming with ritoky seems to be the "murica" thing, which I don't like. This MZ/ritoky team has momentum right now. If he is mafia he is going along with the "murica" parade to kill OdinOfPergo, who recently replaced thrawn. OdinOfPergo - recently replaced thrawn, no posts. Cell B Palmar - Tehpoofter made a meta case against him; would Palmar do the exact same thing two games in a row as mafia? I don't think anyone can answer that question, so I don't feel very strongly about the case against him. Aside from that he's acting like he doesn't care. Tehpoofter - My notes say "initially voted for the lols." I don't like that at all. He also made a hard fos at Palmar. I mentioned I don't feel very strongly about his fos, but I am still happy he made it. WaveofShadow - First posts were extremely adamant about keeping HolyFlare away from mayor; reason being he doesn't want HolyFlare to have "power." Offers to be mayor himself if it keeps the position away from HolyFlare. Later on, he made a comment on the mayor role being "mostly useless." If the role is mostly useless, why so adamant about HolyFlare not getting it and why offer to be mayor if you don't care? My notes then have the following in quotes: "I did say I don't really care who else gets it for the most part, didn't I?" Cell C HolyFlare - Wants to be mayor, badly. Does not believe in having a plan. Does not believe it matters who is elected mayor. I didn't like his "elect me" post for the same reason I didn't like ritoky's; too cheap and fake. batsnacks - I think I should have posted more last night ShiaoPi - My notes say "lots of questions but doesn't follow up." Cell D mtamburini - Has only talked about rng this game. Palmar seemingly randomly voted for him and asked others to join. My notes say "hasn't made any mistakes." ObiWanShinobi - Doesn't explain actions when asked. A lot of his responses seem designed to halt conversation. slOosh - I like his reasons for voting ritoky. My notes say "good followup game." Cell E layabout - Didn't run for mayor and doesn't want the rest of his group being elected. 27ninjabunnies - Highly conversational. Has possibly communicated with more people this game than anyone else. Made a jab at layabout for posting only "common knowledge." mderg - Attempted to buddy with bunnies against layabout. Used the exact same reason as bunnies "layabout posting common knowledge." I don't like this at all. PROPOSED CELL ORDER: C, A, B, E, D It's similar to ritoky's with one primary difference. I think the rikoty/MZ team in cell A has too much momentum right now to lynch first. I want to see where that momentum goes and I want to give Odin at least the extra day. If rikoty or MZ are mafia, lynching group A first is making it way too easy for them. I put groups D/E last because I feel like I know the least about them at this point in time. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
##vote batsnacks | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 29 2014 02:35 Holyflare wrote: Can you explain your thought process of putting C first over A and B. Afaik there aren't that many people ACTUALLY town reading mz, just ritoky. I didn't put A first because I think the rikoty/MZ team has too much momentum against Odin and I think it would be smart to see where that momentum goes with an extra day. I think if rikoty or MZ are mafia we are making it too easy by letting them go first. I put C before B because I feel like I personally have a better intuitive grasp on our group than B's group. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 29 2014 03:28 Holyflare wrote: I'm not making anything up. You just said you were up to date with the game and read the last page. On the last page batsnacks doesn't follow the metric about lynching the lowest contributing cells at all. He does quite the opposite. I started the day with no plan for cells because half the people in the game hadn't spoken yet. That should be obvious. I have made a post with a cell order that you should actually like but you didn't comment on that, you decided to pick up on the start of the game which shows you aren't evolving your reads as time goes on. Why, if you are up to date, do your reads not account for anything that happened since the last time you posted? Hey I just want to get this out in the open so we're really clear. The most important part of my first post is bolded: + Show Spoiler + On May 28 2014 12:06 batsnacks wrote: Okay first post I just want to get some of the thoughts I was having before the game out in the open. If this doesn't run on too long I'll also share some of my notes reading the thread so far. A little background on me first since since none of you have played with me before. I am experienced in mafia but I have never played a setup like this before. It's been a couple years since I've played forum mafia so maybe I'm rusty, maybe I'm well rested. I am not a smurf. First I want to talk about urgent situations; the election process and determining group order. I am open to being elected as mayor. This post is going to inform you of the processes I have considered using to select group order, if I were mayor. I don't know who I'm voting for yet. It isn't important to me that I be elected. It is however important that the person I vote for comment on these processes I have come up with. I have already seen some comments about the role of the mayor not being important. I don't agree with those comments. This is an important decision. Mayor, as I see it, should be a tool that town uses to take early control and set the pace for the rest of the game so that mafia have to play by the rules town lays down. So, how does one as mayor determine group order? I have come up with several scenarios: - Lynch lowest "contributing" groups first. This has already been mentioned once in the thread. Nominations, filter length, post count, meta, etc. could all be used as metrics for "contribution." High contributing people will have the most content to analyze in the end game, so it is beneficial to keep them around longer. More data is better. - Analyze groups as though all three members could be mafia and lynch groups with "most mafia members." Conversely analyze groups as though all three members could be town and lynch groups with "least town members." Compare the two lists and check for differences. If three of the five mafia members could be in a single group, which group would you lynch first? - Everyone picks one "most likely to be mafia" from each group and compares. Sort according to who gets picked most. - "Easy" first. "Easy groups" meaning groups where there are two people working together against someone. - Lastly, my favorite option, all of the above. More data is better. I propose either to the mayor, or possibly as mayor, that we use a combination of these processes for the group selection procedure. Once group order is determined, we can decide who to lynch in each group. I have brainstormed the following situations: - Lynch for single "mistake"/"tell"/"scummy post"; important to use heated rhetoric and pressure of spotlight in this situation. - Lynch because agenda shows anti-town/pro-mafia pattern over time. Either voting pattern, tone/posting style, on the wrong side of arguments, etc. Next post if I can get around to it tonight is notes and practical applications. I used a combination of all of those methods to come up with my group order. I considered highest/lowest contributors, groups that are most town-like, groups that are most mafia-like, specific people who's posting I thought was suspicious, and "easy groups." Before the game I didn't consider "fast win" scenarios as much as I should have where mafia could potentially win 3-0. That is what lead me to believe that high contributors should be spared for last; I was assuming that the game would go late, when it doesn't necessarily have to. I see now that lynching groups with high contributing members first has it's advantage in that those groups, at the time, have the most content to analyze. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 29 2014 04:00 Holyflare wrote: i'm pretty confident I can read someone with more activity over someone with low activity anyday I'm only confident I can read someone with a lot of activity over the same person with less activity. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 29 2014 04:11 Holyflare wrote: when has the order ever been changed on forum mafia? i've seen it happen in video mafia and that change gave a lot of information too I'm reading this as "I'm right because meta. Prove me wrong only using meta." I'm not a fan. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 29 2014 04:22 Holyflare wrote: It's not just meta, it's logic. If a mafia gets the mayor and he puts himself into the last spot and fucks up the order then what? he's sacrificed his cell and given us 2 confirmed towns people that will stay through the entirety of the game giving their thoughts. You also get a lot of information based on the order that he formulated etc. Town has three tools: mayor, lynch, and voice. You're trying to convince me a third of town's tools are useless. Electing a mayor who is town is a huge benefit because it lets town set the pace for the game and mafia have to play by some of our rules. This is not an opportunity that town is going to get twice this game. Running for mayor puts spotlight and pressure on the person running. Most of our analysis this game is based off of the mayor mechanic in the game. You are not going to convince me the mayor role is useless. I hope you aren't able to convince anyone else the mayor role is useless. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
Just consider this: What is the advantage of lynching the mayor's group first? Lets assume that most people vote for the mayor because they believe he/she is town. If the mayor is in the cell to be lynched on day 1, that means that the first group up for lynch already has one person that the majority read as town. This gives town a starting advantage. If town can get the first victory, that is a lot of pressure on mafia. I would argue town winning day 1 is more important than town winning any other day, except for LYLO. Building momentum is important. Going into day 1 with a town read (the mayor) is an advantage. Consider this. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 29 2014 11:13 WaveofShadow wrote: Chainsaw defense is to defend someone by attacking others to discredit them or make the defended person appear better. Really HF? Now again, unflipped association but that whole 'analysis' of my cell says absolutely dick all, and the only person he does not cast in a negative light with it is Palmar. Hell even ignoring the fact that I think Palmar is scum it doesn't look great. Nobody commented on this....and batsnacks himself responded to every other post made towards him at the given time I believe. If you can explain why you didn't like whatever I posted without using the words "chainsaw defense" or "dick all" I will have an easier time responding to this issue you're creating. Even after this post I quoted I still don't understand how I've committed "chainsaw defense." In the post I think you are referring to what I said about Palmar was "he's acting like he doesn't care." You're saying the only person in your cell I don't cast in a negative light is Palmar. "He's acting like he doesn't care" was implied as being negative. I was sharing the notes I made while reading in that post. If you think my notes mean "dick all" that bothers me. I went out of my way to share them because I thought they would be useful. So maybe you'll explain yourself better or not but regardless I think there are more urgent matters at hand right now. We could have had a dialog day 1 and it would have been relevant before but you choose to pursue this now. At the moment I'm reading it as a selfish pursuit. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 29 2014 12:00 Holyflare wrote: Yehhh bumsnacks let's lynch shiaopi! I've got a better idea lets cross that bridge when we come to it, which won't even be very long now. How about this if the deadline was now who would you vote in group A? This is an open question anyone can answer it. I'd vote MZ because he buddied with ritoky too fast, because I want to believe a mafia member wasn't elected as mayor over me, and because I liked Odin's first post more than any of MZ's that I can remember. That's what I've got and I think it is something. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
Does anyone want to have a calm dialog about what just happened and what it means? | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 29 2014 16:42 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I HATE posts like this. Rit seems to be making friends, does that make him scum? Rit's posting feels forced, does that make him scum? It's elaborate and gives you bad vibes, does that make him scum? Odin presents a lot of things rit is doing and neither gives examples of why he feels that way or makes a solid conclusion. Like, c'mon man, you KNOW that either rit or I have to be scum. For some reason it's incredibly hard for odin to form a solid read (other than Palmar lol). When I started off the game I wanted to solve my own cell first because I had a whopping 50% chance of doing that. HF mentioned that one of the things he liked about odin was that he was reading the whole game. That's great, but at this point he can't even give a solid read on his own cell which honestly just screams scum who's not certain which cell member he'll have a better chance to misslynch. I was rereading and I found something that really bothered me. It's in red above. MZ I thought you were pushing Odin as scum. If Odin is scum, how would he "KNOW" that either ritoky or you are scum? There can only be one mafia per cell. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 30 2014 01:37 mderg wrote: I agree that this is bad wording but I don´t feel like it has any significance. If it's just bad wording, how would you re-word it to make it "good wording?" | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 30 2014 01:43 OdinOfPergo wrote: also re- (Pls forgive) HF, Ninja, Poof, my #1 townies. Who cares? Do you have anything to say about Cell A? | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 30 2014 01:45 OdinOfPergo wrote: are ytou even fucking serious? Have you read tghe last page? You didn't exactly make it easy on me. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 30 2014 01:50 mderg wrote: Something like this: As town you would know that either rit or I have to be scum. It still bothers me. Something about the "KNOW" in all caps makes be believe that MZ actually knows odin's alignment is town and it slipped through his subconscious as he was writing. It's a confident, emotional statement. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 30 2014 04:06 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Cell C: HF, you’ve been active all game and I generally agree with your reads and your “townpile.” I have you as town right now. Batsnacks wanted group C to go first because he felt he “had a grasp on it” but hasn’t actually provided any insight into the group aside from his one big post where he “didn’t like” and was “not a fan” of lots of people but did not provide any solid reads. At the moment, only real scumread is me for “buddying ritoky.” His to big posts were a summary and setup speculation. Overall not really impressed with what I’ve seen. ShaioPi is sadly less impressive than batsnacks. He calls HF, Tamburini, and ritoky scum and then never really revisits it. He doesn’t like group A and he wanted batsnacks to be mayor. Overall incredibly lurky and low content. I had called him scum for saying he didn’t like freedom but at the moment he’s the scummiest from group C imo. Cell D Tamburini rng’d a list of scum and then afk’d, null. ObiWan is lurky as well. Has thrice promised a case and then reneged. The only real read he provides is sloosh as scum. There’s a casual open manner to his posts though imo so I’ll give him a pass until I see more substantive posts. I guess I’m cautiously optimistic about obiwan. Sloosh is active lurking and he chainsaw’s Odin by going after me. I personally think his case is hilariously bad and because I think Odin is scum, I’m gonna throw down the omgus and say that sloosh is the scum from Cell D. His active lurking and lack of reads is bad enough, the chainsaw is icing on the cake. Cell E Layabout has been spectacularly useless, but he might be the scum from this group because he goes after ritoky, but then changes his tune after the lynch on me starts to pick up speed. This is just another chainsaw defense of odin. Layabout goes from saying ritoky’s plan makes perfect sense from a mafia perspective to saying I’m scum for buddying him. The only thing that makes sense here from a mafia perspective is layabout’s play because he realizes I’m an easier lynch than ritoky. 27NB has been active and her reads have been decent. Townread from me. Mderg hasn’t really been pushing any reads, but what he has said has been well thought out and logical so I feel pretty good about him as well. So my scum team looks like this: Odin, Palmar, ShaioPi, Sloosh, Layabout. Most confident on the first two, least confident on ShaioPi . It's not correct to say I "didn't like" or "was not a fan of" lots of people. It would be correct to say that I "didn't like" or "was not a fan of" specific things lots of people did. There were very few people I actually didn't like. | ||
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