CMStorm_Polt, Quantic.HyuN, EG.Revival, ROOTSage

by lichter

The champ is back, and for some reason, finds himself in arguably the toughest Round of 32 group in Season 3. Group A features the Season 2 champion Polt, the Season 1 runner-up and IEM China champion Revival, the DreamHack Valencia champion HyuN, and ROOT Gaming’s Ace player Sage. It’s a ridiculously strong group full of players who could go on to win it all, but only 2 players will be making the trip to California for the Ro16. Curiously, there's no clear hierarchy between these players, with all of them having a varied amount of relative success against each other. It should be a very interesting group, and unpredictable until the end.

Leading the pack is CMStorm_Polt, who’s looking to become the first player to ever retain his title in the WCS format. Polt did have a disappointing showing at the WCS Season 2 Finals in Cologne, losing twice to First in the group stages to get knocked out immediately. However, now he’s back on familiar American soil.

While there is the concern about the end of vacation and school once again getting in the way of Polt's practice, his play has always been more about decision making and proper responses than pure mechanics, so don’t expect his skill level to drop steeply. Polt should have confidence in advancing—his records of 8-4 against HyuN and 4-1 against Sage are positive signs—and he’ll relish a rematch against Revival. It’s the only blip on his stellar TvZ record, and he’ll be hoping to avenge his 2-3 series loss from IEM Shanghai.

Before he can get that rematch, however, he’ll have to get past former GSL runner-up and fellow TSL alumni HyuN. The Quantic Zerg and original mastodon is always considered a title contender in any competition he enters, but he only recently broke his championship duck at DreamHack Valencia. Whether that is a sign of him reaching his potential or just a fortunate tournament has yet to be seen. His decent finishes at IEM Shanghai (5th-8th), ASUS ROG Summer (Ro4) and DreamHack Bucharest (Ro16) since then once again showed a dangerous but not-quite-championship player, with his exits a result of losing lopsided series.

We’ve been touting HyuN’s strong play since his astonishing run through IPL Fight Club, but just a single championship seems disappointing for a player who has the potential to do so much more. He finally has his chance here in WCS America, where HyuN makes his first foray after some uncharacteristic Challenger League flops in the first few seasons. He has amassed so many WCS points from other major tournaments that he’s already in striking distance of Blizzcon, with a good outing here able to cement his place.

In the other match, we have the always-up-and-coming EG.Revival. He had always been a good Zerg and one to watch during his time in TSL, but he was constantly overshadowed by the likes of HyuN and Symbol. It wasn’t until his 2nd place finish in WCS America Season 1 that, perhaps, he had finally made something out of all that potential. His run was arguably not as strong as others (beating Snute and aLive in the Playoffs) but few expected the EG Zerg to do so well.

Unlike so many players who we’d thought to have finally broken out of their shells, Revival was able to follow that up with an impressive 1st place finish in IEM Shanghai over players like Polt, MC and Oz. Many were shocked to see Revival win his first championship before Jaedong, but sometimes that's just how the tournament world goes. He did fall short in the Round of 16 in WCS AM Season 2, but now Revival can show that he’s not another flash in the pan and compete with the world’s best players at Blizzcon.

Finally, there’s Sage. ROOT’s ace has served his team well so far in online tournaments, and his winrates across the board are decent albeit unspectacular (~55%). However, Sage has had the advantage of beating up on foreigners in order to boost his stats. A quick glance on Aligulac.com shows that when facing only Korean competition, Sage only has a 47% winrate in games and 48% in matches. His PvZ is his only consistent matchup regardless of competition, and his 5-1 record against HyuN looks promising. Unfortunately, he’s also 1-4 against Revival, the player he needs to face first and the guy who beat him 0-2 in last season’s Round of 16. It’s certainly going to be an uphill climb for Sage against these three championship contenders, but fans of ROOT will be hoping for an upset.

Overall, I expect Polt to make it out in first place. He’s been one of the more consistent players in SC2 lately, and by consistent I mean consistently great. He has the upper hand against all the players in this group in terms of matchups, even against Revival (who has 45% ZvT). Second place should go to either HyuN or Revival, but I’m going to have to go with the former due to his strong ZvZ and mastery of roaches.

Overall Predictions:

Polt > HyuN
Revival > Sage
Polt > Revival
HyuN > Sage
HyuN > Revival

Polt and HyuN advance.