WCS Europe Season 3

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VODs on Youtube

Genius, Grubby, LucifroN, Starbuck

by Plexa

Group D is very much your typical Ro32 group for this tournament – there is the clear favourite of the group, Lucifron, the players who have unknown form, Genius and Grubby, and the underdog of the group, Starbuck. It’s easy to assess the group and assert that Lucifron will come out 2-0 with Genius/Grubby left to fight over the remaining spot. But actually, if recent trends are any indication, this group is likely to be anything but cut and dry.

So far as WCS points are concerned, Grubby and Lucifron need to advance from this group to have any shot at qualifying for the grand finals. Genius and Starbuck could theoretically still qualify, but they’d need to make this finals this season and get top four in the season finals (or something like that). Grubby is at #24 on the points list at the moment, with 1750 points (#16 has 2350). A top-5 finish this season might just be enough to see him through to provide some non-Korean presence at the grand finals. Lucifron has been denied any serious points for two seasons now, but a deep run this season will keep his WCS hopes alive. At #31 with 1250 points, he has some ground to make up but it’s certainly within his grasp.


Let’s look at the first match of the night, Grubby vs Genius. Grubby has come off a top 4 finish in WCS EU last season and a 0-4 exit in the season finals. The contrast between these two results typifies Grubby’s SC2 career to date – one moment he looks like a real contender for a championship and the next you wonder how he made it into the tournament in the first place. Genius suffers from the same syndrome; on a good day he can eliminate anyone in the world and on a bad day he can go out without taking a map. So much depends on the condition of these players that it’s difficult to call a winner in the first match. With that said, I’m fairly sure whoever takes the first series will take a rematch if that transpires. And who will that player be? My moneys on Genius. The last time he dropped a PvP series at a major tournament to a non-Korean was over a year ago and with Grubby’s recent PvP shakiness I suspect he will edge out a victory.

I would be very surprised if Starbuck was able to defeat Lucifron and here’s 3 reasons why. Firstly, it’s Lucifron’s TvZ which I’d rate as probably the best in Europe. Secondly, this is Starbuck’s first really big showing and while it’s being played online, I still feel like Lucifron’s stage experience should give him an edge. Lastly, with Lucifron being a ladder warrior, I doubt that Starbuck is as much of an unknown to him as he is to the average forum goer (and thus knows that Starbuck is more than likely to pull out his own brand of ‘Special Tactics’ and be ready for that).

Assuming the previous predictions hold, we’ll have Genius playing his (statistically) best matchup and Lucifron playing his (statistically) worst matchup (in recent history). While the caliber of Genius’ opponents may be marginally lower than that of Lucifron, that is not enough to alleviate the fact that Lucifron’s Achilles heel has been Protoss since his dual losses to duckdeok and Welmu in season 2. I would love to see Lucifron advance here, but it seems very unlikely. Even if Grubby advanced over Genius, I still doubt that Lucifron would make it through. Thus, I expect Genius to advance first from the group (or Grubby, if he finds himself in this position).

Now let me preface the next prediction with this VOD between Starbuck and Genius from their WCS Qualifier match.


Starbuck, while a huge unknown to most, actually is a player who is very capable of playing unorthodox and original strategies. If you didn’t watch the VOD above, then let me explain what happened. Starbuck stacked 8 or so drones to make them look like a single scouting drone as it crossed the map and then successfully disrupted the Protoss wall long enough for his zerglings to arrive and seal the game. I feel like Starbuck is his strongest when he plays against Protoss because of the flexibility in the strategies he can employ, and I expect that to work to his advantage in this match. With Grubby/Genius/Lucifron all realising that they are the top contenders in their group I expect their preparation time to be more focused on preparing for each other as opposed to Starbuck (except possibly Lucifron). As such, regardless of who loses the Grubby/Genius match, I expect them to go out 0-2 to some creative strategies and resulting in the LR thread being painted red with bans.

I don’t expect anything interesting to happen between Lucifron and Starbuck in the final series – probably Starbuck cheese, Lucifron holding, and Starbuck finishing third. But if Lucifron advances first, then Starbuck has a real shot at making it out of this group (as he gets more games vs Protoss).

Prediction:
Grubby 1-2 Genius
Lucifron 2-0 Starbuck
Genius 2-0 Lucifron
Grubby 0-2 Starbuck
Lucifron 2-0 Starbuck

Genius and Lucifron to advance.



Upcoming Groups
Sept 11: Welmu, BlinG, sLivko, ThorZaIN
Sept 12: HasuObs, Shuttle, TitaN, Nerchio
Sept 17: MMA, TAiLS, BabyKnight, KrasS

Writer: Plexa
Graphics: shiroiusagi
Banner photo: ESL
Editor: Plexa.