Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII

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fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 19 2013 21:05 GMT

#31

/in
this is my first forum game of mafia, have played on IRC several times. hope to have fun with you all (:

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 24 2013 09:47 GMT

#260

Hi guys, I'm sorry I am in an eastern time zone so I haven't been online. This is my first game of forum mafia sorry if I step on any toes :/

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 24 2013 09:55 GMT

#261

I don't know why I'm being voted day 1 when I haven't posted anything yet, I'm sure this kind of behaviour is exactly what the scum wants us to do. I'm sorry if there's no meta on me cause this is my first game and I would like to have my first game where I am not dead the first day. I can honestly assure everyone that I am town and killing me is a bad idea.

EDIT: I know I sound scummy but I guess that's what you're all going to have :/

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 24 2013 10:34 GMT

#264

Ah okay sorry I'm new. I won't do it again.

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 24 2013 10:48 GMT

#266

Yeah, I'm currently going through the thread. It's a lot to digest :x

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 24 2013 11:39 GMT

#268

On June 24 2013 12:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
The Case on Xzavier being spammy:

Show nested quote +

None of this is useable for me. That could just be me sucking at reads (no, really. This is a possibility), but none of this material brings anything new to the table for me or encourages serious scum-hunting discussion.

At this point I believe both Sponge and xzavier are town. Xzavier's posting history leads me to believe this is just how he types and Sponge looks quite pro-town.

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 24 2013 11:41 GMT

#269

On June 24 2013 20:38 Spicydinosaur wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 24 2013 18:14 Aquanim wrote:

On June 24 2013 17:55 Hurricane Sponge wrote:

On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:

On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:
I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.

Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.

Event: NN roleclaims
Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty
Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.

Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.

Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.

If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum.

First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe.

Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on:
1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it.
2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody.
Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these.

The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot.

Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him.

I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly.

On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:

I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy.

The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though.

My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please.

I'll drop the whole NN thing if people feel like we're getting off-track with it, but it seems like we're in a holding pattern while we wait for inactives to defend themselves.

Regarding the NN Claim: This is a part of the game I clearly don't understand the far-reaching implications of. Addressing point #2, specifically: "Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes (this)."

Is the value of preventing a mafia NN claim later in the game more than the benefit of having a real NN around to counter-claim it in the moment, catching the scum in the act? (This assumes the remaining townies have pegged the real NN as more town than the first claimant). Do not get discouraged- I would like to hear your thoughts on this subject, and it's important to emphasize that people make up their own minds on this matter as there is likely at least 1 scum trying to steer public opinion in the 'wrong' direction on this issue. You seem to have already convinced FirmTofu, and this is the kind of matter we can get Town Consensus on now in the early game.

The trouble with relying on a Nosy Neighbour counter-claiming later on is that we have no guarantee that there is even a Nosy Neighbour in the game. If there isn't, and scum fake-claims it, they get away scot-free. Sure, we could lynch an uncounterclaimed Nosy Neighbour, but enforcing a claim of it day 1 avoids considerations of "did he only claim it to avoid a lynch?". If there is an actual NN, and scum fake-claims it, then they get counter-claimed and lynched, which is OK.

Also, if there is a Nosy Neighbour and they are forced to claim at LYLO, then scum can counter-claim and leave us with a 50-50 chance (which might be a lot better than what they faced before).

Since scum would probably only claim NN if it was a choice between a fakeclaim and being lynched, if the NN claim is not available to them they're just as dead (if not more) than if they were counter-claimed anyway. Thus there is no advantage to leaving a NN claim till later in the hopes of counterclaiming a fakeclaim.

Even if there is a NN are we guaranteed to have a watcher? Or vice versa? There is also the possibility of the SK (if we have one) claiming to be the NN. I still think the best thing we can do right now is NOT to have the NN claim. A confirmed (or at least believed NN) is just one less person for scum to worry about that night as others have said. Also if someone does claim it... would we actually want a watcher to waste a night confirming it?

And I agree with spicy on this point, the NN should not out himself. The NN outing just gives the mafia a clear advantage and does not help in any way for the town. I'm sorry if my repeating w/o adding anything of value sounds scum-like but I'm just giving my two-cents on this plan.

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 24 2013 15:35 GMT

#279

How long left do we have before night?

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 24 2013 16:04 GMT

#286

Ah okay I will take my time voting then.

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 24 2013 19:10 GMT

#316

Hi guys, for what it's worth I believe FirmTofu to either be an overzealous townie or scum. By checking through some of his posts in his previous games it appears that he is indeed kinda overzealous about things as town, not too sure about scum though. Apparently in one of his games he shot another town he believed to be mafia so I'm not too sure where this places him.
For now, I'd rather we lynch someone scummier.

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 25 2013 06:48 GMT

#422

I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum.

##Vote: Aquanim

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 25 2013 06:58 GMT

#425

On June 25 2013 14:44 Aquanim wrote:

Show nested quote +

Because it's true. If I have a gut read, I do seek to substantiate it with a case to convince other people though. I don't expect anyone else to be convinced by my gut.
What about this statement makes you think I couldn't say it as town? (NB. You should be thinking this about any scum read.)

Show nested quote +

This is ridiculous. You just keep repeating the same thing over and over again. Even if it was a pro-scum position, plenty of people had already said they thought it was a bad idea. I knew when I made that argument that I was arguing against thread sentiment and did it anyway, because I thought (and still think) that that claim would lead to town advantage.

You can't say that someone is scum just because they did some stuff which they MIGHT do as scum. You have to find something which they WOULDN'T do as town.

Something about the way you type is off, I can't really put my finger on to it. I can't really decide whether you're really town or actually scum doing a good job pretending to be town.

If anyone could help me clarify how many mafs/SKs are usually in a 12p game I think I would be able to make better decisions.

fyfy

Singapore13 Posts

June 25 2013 07:13 GMT

#428

So basically we're looking at 3 scums here, and its possible for 1 of them to not have a partner (the SK). So what we should be looking for people who are defending a lot of other people as these people will be the ones who likely will use that as an excuse for defending their mafia partner later on in the game ("Oh I defend everyone!").

As for now, I should not have voted so quickly, I apologise.

##Unvote: Aquanim

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