Smurf Mini Mafia

On June 02 2013 16:10 TomB4 wrote:
I need to read in on Davison, but I avoided doing so on the idea that I'd be quite biased given he was attacking me. I should probably take time to remove that autotown read on him and look into it more.

Anyway I wanted to post my reads before deadline but was unfortunately away (playing paintball). No one died?

First thing I wanted to get out of the way: do we think none of the scum bussed on day 1? This is a 12 player game, there are almost certainly 3 scum. What's the most likely split for votes by scum?

I don't think it's likely that both scum bussed unless they are more active than I think they are. It certainly doesn't seem like the most active players are scum, and the only person who is suspicious at all that has posted a fair amount is JP. His vote was on PT.

On DrT the two most suspicious players are HW and Eccleston. Everyone else looks fine.

So, unless one of the scum has tricked us, there are five players (six if you count me) that we should look into.

JP
HW
Eccleston
TheDavison
Ptroughton

Someone is probably getting replaced/modkilled-for now let's assume it's PT and ignore him. If he gets replaced we will probably know his alignment (hopefully) decently well within 24 hours of his replacement coming in, assuming the replacement is reasonably active. If PT is not the one being replaced we should strongly consider killing him, since it means he is somehow active enough to stay in the game, yet has contributed nothing to town and is not active by town standards, i.e. probably scum. Thus the replacement issue should probably resolve itself.

So, going with the assumption that PT is being replaced, we look at 4:

JP
HW
Eccleston
TheDavison

I found myself agreeing with some of Davison's logic, particularly that contested lynches on day 1 are useful. However, I'm not sure why, if he was truly interested in starting a wagon, he didn't push me harder. In addition, he never swapped his vote back to DrT at the end of the day, even stranger for a townie. Even if he didn't have the motivation to push me after his initial votepost I would at the very least expect some sort of vote back to the main candidate to prevent a no-lynch. This is extended majority, not plurality. His vote was wasted, and removing two votes from the main wagon would result in no-lynch. As town he should know that.

More interesting, is the effort that Davison put into reading and posting about everyone, except JP. I don't like forming connections before flips but this one is extraordinarily out of place.



Note that this never happened, despite Davison staying around and posting on PT, and HW, two of the easiest people to comment on. Both of their filters are almost completely void. (there was also a post on MSmith IIRC)

In light of all of this I think it's quite likely Davison is scum.

Eccleston

Based on what I've read of Eccleston's posts I think he's probably the most likely to be town out of the entire lot. In fact, I think he's quite likely to be town. He's made very specific observations that are quite hard for scum to make. I do not, for example, think that the average TL scum player would say anything like these:



How often do scum reference posts and actually question the logic of someone else on such a specific level? Generally scum find it hard to fake the "figuring out" process because they've already been given the alignments of everyone in the game. It's almost impossible to fake this kind of specific questioning process-if questioning is faked by scum, it's usually more general or nebulous.



This post reflects Eccleston's initial thought process regarding my opinion of PT yesterday. What's interesting is not necessarily this post itself, because I think the average scum could probably reasonably fake something like this. What's most interesting are his followup posts that demonstrate that he was thinking about this. IMO most scum would not put in the effort to think about what another player has written and said about someone else because they don't have to-they don't know how to fake the process, and so they only show the results of that process. This is partly also, IMO, why scum are so reluctant to swap votes. It's hard for scum to realistically be able to fake a decision-making process when their ulterior goal is to blend in. Eccleston doesn't display any of those tendencies. He's almost certainly town IMO.

If anyone can find instances where I am wrong about what I've said above, I'd love to hear it. The only thing that could possibly be held against Eccleston, IMO, is his relatively low recent activity, but given the context of the game I do not think it is a point worthy of consideration unless his inactivity persists.

So, this leaves JP and HW.

HartnellWill has nothing. Nothing really to say on this-he could also potentially be the person for whom GM was looking for a replacement. His vote timing is not early enough to be conclusive evidence of him being town and not late enough to be conclusive evidence of him bussing either.

JP is consistent throughout his attacks on PT. The worst things against JP are:

his lack of presence at crucial times for town during the day. He wasn't around for the lynch, his vote never moved from a doomed wagon, and he acted relatively strange with respect to the flipped scum.

However, there are a couple things in his favor, particularly this little bit, which is what I was referencing when I said I found his tone to be townish.



Bolded emphasis mine-this is not much but I don't think this anger is faked. Certainly he could be frustrated scum (with the lynch of his buddy perhaps) but I'm wary of that. Generally displays of frustration and use of tone like this is indicative of a townie.

The only other thing worthy of any mention is Davison's failure to provide a read on JP, but that is more reflective of Davison's alignment than JP's.

Based on what we have in the thread right now, I would say that Davison and JP are our best bets for lynches today, but I would strongly favor Davison precisely because he made a promise on reads that he didn't follow up on despite being present and following up on other reads. HW and PT have no posts and there is probably some mod intervention that is going to happen with at least one of them, and Eccleston to me looks like he is town.

+ Show Spoiler +

##vote TheDavison