by: Zealously

Games at 09:10 GMT (+00:00)

#6: Samsung_Shine

Shine is in a tough spot in this group. Although he showed very decent play in Code A, taking out both Huk and Fantasy, he was completely and utterly stomped by Squirtle in the Round of 24. Reaching that point is no mean feat, but for me this group is slightly out of range for the Samsung Zerg. With his team mate RorO rising to the occasion and reaching the first Code S final for a KeSPA player, it's certainly possible that Shine has been taught a trick or two, or will bring his best performance yet to kill a few fan favorites in typical Samsung Zerg fashion. This is the player who originally became famous for knocking a full power Bisu out of the OSL, so be warned that he knows and enjoys the taste of fanboy tears.

The biggest problem for Shine in this group is that his two better match-ups – ZvT and ZvZ, both pit him against players that are even better, showing stunning play in the match-up. Effort, like almost all former Brood War champions, excels in the mirror match-up. Ryung got to the semi-finals of Code S in Season 5 and has played some very good TvZ against the likes of DongRaeGu before.

As such, Shine's best chance in this group is taking out the two, arguably weaker players Center and Killer, a task that certainly seems doable. But even if Shine can accomplish that, he will need at least one more win to get out of this group, and two more if he's to be safe from head-to-head records; a tough task in a group like this.


#5: MVP.Killer

Ending up in the Up&Downs is never good news, given its killer format. But for Killer, I feel this group is very doable. He has very decent records in PvT and PvZ (though the latter has brought him mostly losses recently), while his PvP is by far his statistically worst match-up. And luckily for Killer, two of the players in this group are known for their poor ZvP, with both Shine and Effort having sub 50% win rates in the match-up. Ryung is a tough opponent to get past for anyone, but he too is weakest against Protoss (though the last time he played the match-up was in 2012), which makes this group doable, but by no means easy for the MVP Protoss.

Killer's biggest problems, I feel, will be Creator and Center. Creator is obviously a force to be reckoned with in the mirror match-up and, I think, beyond Killer's reach barring a crazy all-in. Center is very formidable against Protoss, as well. This is the guy that knocked Seed out of Code A (twice) and looked fairly good doing so. Though Center is the least heralded player in this group, it seems likely that he will come to the studio with all-ins and clever strategies prepared. He has brought down stronger Protosses than Killer with them before.

All in all, this group is not impossible for Killer. He will need to take out three players, which is tough when you've got Ryung and Creator in your group. Add in Center's TvP, and Killer is in a bit of trouble. Killer is smart, and he has good team mates – hopefully, they have been available recently.


#4: Quantic.Center

Center is in a strange spot in this group. By eliminating Seed once again last season, he has started to gain a reputation as a solid TvP player. But looking at TLPD, his other two match-ups don't look quite as impressive, with a 4-8 TvT record and 4-4 TvZ, where two wins come from beating DeathAngel in the ESV Korean Weekly almost a year ago. The point is, it's hard to say where Center is in terms of skill. Obviously, eliminating Seed (again) is quite an impressive feat, but what about that abysmal TvT record?

While there is an extremely good TvT player in this group in Ryung, he's the only one. So even if Center is terrible in TvT (which I'm not so sure about, considering the amount of time that's passed since most of his losses), and though he'd probably lose to Ryung even if he were awesome at the mirror, it's not the biggest loss in the world.

Ryung aside, Center's in danger with Effort and Creator out for blood. Effort doesn't automatically lose against Terran like he does against Protoss, and Creator is a formidable opponent no matter the match-up. As such, Center's best chances lie in killing off Shine and Killer – which seems very doable, and beating a third player by any means possible. If he cheeses out Ryung, Effort and Creator that's all fine and dandy as long as he wins. But, with the ”Big Three” of this group all being very strong against Terran, I'm putting Center at fourth with little hope barring major upsets.


#3: Ax.Ryung

Ryung was on fire in last season's Code S, getting all the way to the semifinals before being stopped by Sniper. I'm going to go ahead and say that that the loss probably shook the Axiom Terran. Prior to the GSL semifinal, he'd outplayed Flash in one of the greatest TvT's of 2012, beat Marineking convincingly and sent both DRG and Curious out of Code S. After the semifinal loss against Sniper, he has not looked quite the same. He exited Season 1's Code S early after being dominated by Losira twice while only barely beating Byun, and lost 0-2 against Flash in his best match-up to end up in the Up&Downs. Not at all up to the standard which he had set for himself in Code S just a season before.

Make no mistake, Ryung is still a very good player (as evidenced by his insane series against Flash), but he is not the favorite in this group. Center, Shine and Killer are all more or less beatable opponents, where as his game against Effort will probably decide who advances out of this group. Winning an important TvP against Creator is a tall order for anyone, especially for a player like Ryung who has had trouble in the match-up in the past.

If Ryung can bring back his TvZ from late 2012, he will be good enough to beat Effort, probably securing advancement from this group. If not, or if he takes an early loss against the three lower rated players, this group becomes very tough for Ryung, and he'll have to spend a season in Code A.


#2: CJ_EffOrt

Good news, Effort! There are only (?) two Protoss players in this group, while there are enough Zergs and Terrans for you to (potentially) be fine! All jokes aside, it's difficult to overstate how much trouble Effort has had with ZvP, and it seems very unlikely that he will beat Creator. Killer isn't as scary as the Prime Protoss, though still a tall order considering Effort's recent form in the match-up.

Having Shine in the group is great news for Effort, who boasts excellent ZvZ, a signature trait for Zerg aces on KeSPA teams. Though not quite as impressive as his mirror match-up, Effort's vT is very formidable as well, and it makes him very dangerous for both Center and Ryung. Although both Terrans have respectable records in the match-up, Effort has beaten the likes of Flash and Innovation in Proleague – and if he followed the standard KeSPA-rate of improvement, he will only have gotten better. Effort's greatest enemies in this group will doubtlessly be Creator and Killer; if he can get past them, he should have secured advancement from this group.

Effort does have a history of unconvincing performances in Starcraft II, and so there is a distinct possibility that two losses to Protoss players will snowball out of control and kick him back into Code A on head-to-head records.


#1: CreatorPrime

It seems lady luck has smiled on Creator, just in time for Heart of the Swarm, putting him in a group that is pretty much perfect for him. His Protoss opponent, Killer, has statistically weak PvP and has hardly looked convincing when we've seen him play the mirror recently. Effort and Shine, his two Zerg opponents, have both looked weak (very weak, in Effort's case) against Protoss and don't look like they can do much to threaten the Prime Protoss.

On top of all this, while his two Terran opponents Ryung and Center have looked decent against Protoss, they're just not on Creator's level. Creator has always been known for his brutally effective macro style of PvT, and he's presently on a 9-game winning streak in the match-up against top, top opponents including Mvp, Gumiho and Byun.

In fairness, Creator's games versus Terran were played toward the end of last year, but there is little reason to believe that he has fallen off and could not beat Center and Ryung in a Best of 1. The one thing that could threaten Creator in this group is, as always in the Up&Downs, unprepared scenarios. Everything can happen in this format, and Center in particular looks like a threat to pull an upset after having kicked out Seed not once but twice. The PvP against Killer doesn't look concerning, but it is considered the most volatile match-up in SCII for a reason. Creator is heavily favored against all opponents in this group, but he cannot grow too confident or he might very well fall victim to the terrifying nature of the GSL's most unforgiving format.