EPTThis Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 25 2013 09:29 Dienosore wrote: Oh snap, early start! Hurray! I just caught up with the thread. A few things: - Snarf/Marv's plan to use all of our time to get a majority before dueling seems like the best and most logical path of action. No complaints there. - Yamato, easy on the trigger amigo. I can see some merit to what you are saying, though. It might be very beneficial for the town to have someone like you who is willing to duel in order to prove alignment, as long as you follow the general town consensus. Could help to keep everyone honest... ...On the other hand, you might be mafia... in which case having you as a baseline enforcer would only result in towny deaths. Until you get cleared somehow, I think we should stick with the plan to just take our time. - Corazon: I don't know you, therefore I don't not like you! <3 Not sure why marv is putting doubt on you already, but I generally trust him. Is there something about you I should know? Check out this rampant pandering. If you had to set up a first post that didn't step on anyone's toes, this would be the template. Multiple topics, wishy wasy attitude, no hard stances on anything, and of course "finish with a question". I mean, I could go post by post and show you examples of inefficient town play but I'll just show you examples from his most "productive post" + Show Spoiler + On February 25 2013 16:24 Dienosore wrote: I've cooled off a bit on Adam. If he still wants to get some, I'm here to call his bluff, but I think our time is better spent looking at a few other people right now. His level of activity is about 10x's what I have seen in past games already. The connection between Marv and Snarf has me puzzled. I don't know what to make of it. Marv has heat coming in from a few directions, which is understandable considering how he has played so far, but Snarf on the other hand... he started off posting strong, boldly claimed towny, then kind of fell off the planet when people started agreeing with his policies. Seems fishy to just dump out like that after everything started agreeing and the spotlight was moved away. Secondly, Oatsmaster jumped into the conversation a bit late, but the way he did it has me a little suspicious. He instantly threw doubt on Cora and started attacking Marv. He hasn't said anything super incriminating yet, but he is definitely on my 'To Watch' list. Overall, there just really isn't enough info yet for me to be 100% about any read. I'm not even going to pretend I'm that good at mafia after two games to where I can call people out like that on day one. I definitely have a few suspicions, though I don't really see a reason to muddy up the waters with my speculation right now. The key themes that hes trying to get across to you are as follows: - He is not good at this game. - No one is talking enough to know anything. - Let's not jump to conclusions. But here's the kicker- "I don't really see a reason to muddy up the waters with my speculation right now". Yeah, let's not use time to discuss our scum reads.... let's keep them to yourself so you don't get any unwanted attention..... Great plan. Between this and the "my diagrams aren't ready" defense he's set himself up to lurk for the next three weeks. Oh and don't forget..... + Show Spoiler + On February 25 2013 16:29 Dienosore wrote: How about yourself, Yamato? Anything worth sharing right now? Always finish with a question. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 26 2013 06:19 cDgCorazon wrote: Hello! Being a bit late to the party, there are things that we all might have missed in the heat of the moment. Is there anything that you have found from the pervious discussion that you want to point out or that you want to discuss more? If you had to have two people duel each other right now, who would it be and why? Ok so I made a post on my best read right now which is Dienosore. If I had to pick two I'd go with Snarfs. Reason being I think early in the game your best chance to lynch scum is identify the low hanging fruit, ie. those that embody both scummy play and "noob" play. My idea is a bit WIFOM'y but anytime I've been mafia it's never been the experienced player that gets targeted early, it's always the seemingly "newer" player who leaves some subtle clue. Experienced players seem to make it through the first day without attracting too much attention, and as such need more time to evaluate. Snarfs filter is tough because it's obviously limited (not that I have much room to talk) but the major issues are just the pure conjecture coming out+ Show Spoiler + On February 26 2013 04:50 Snarfs wrote: Also adding this so I don't forget later: Right up until page 20 when a few more people showed up in the game, lots of talk was on Hapa but Corazon completely ignored that discussion and went after Oats, if I recall correctly. I'm a little rusty on how to interpret that, but it seemed noteworthy. halfheartedly probing questions with no follow-ups + Show Spoiler + On February 25 2013 03:59 Snarfs wrote: Do you not agree that the two worst looking players should duel then? And then, there's whatever the hell this is. On February 26 2013 05:35 Snarfs wrote: Since marv and yamato seem pretty happy with you so far though, I'm not going to really push you on this one since it's not a big priority and would probably just derail things. As I said, just making a note of things. Reading through the thread in one sitting gave me the chance to see just how everyone's feelings have been progressing. Yamato and later Marv have been increasingly "suspected" as town, for better or for worse, and as such it seems that rather than getting in a pissing match with townies, Snarfs took the easy way out, the way that he thought would not garner that much attention. But GAIZ!!111 He said he didn't want to "derail things". Let's think though, doesn't that sound similar to Dienosore's "muddy up the water" quote? Spoiler + Show Spoiler + It does Similar strategies, similar actions, and guess who haven't even mentioned each other yet this game..... | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 26 2013 07:58 Snarfs wrote: In hindsight, I shouldn't have posted that. I should have wrote it down in a notepad or something, but I was on my phone and felt like airing out an observation to the rest of town. For the record, Corazon is not even close to my top 5 after some honest consideration. As I've said repeatedly, it was just an observation. It's a question. Which he answered. And which 2 or 3 other people took up questioning him further on. At first I was taken aback by yamato's stance, thinking there's no way town could think that's a good idea, so I questioned him and watched as he responded to marv & co. Then I remembered that he just came off an impressive victory over scum and is extremely confident right now and things started adding up as to why he could be so cocky. I decided it'd be pointless to continue questioning Corazon since he seems really town aside from that single observation. Again, it was probably a mistake to point it out in the thread. I just mentioned him. He looks bad, but not as bad as hapa/keirathi and possibly thrawn. I do need to read more of thrawn again though. What do you see in Keirathi's filter that you don't see in Thrawn's? Reason I ask this is that they are both devoid of anything substantive, but Dien's case in my mind has more to go on than both of them. The way you're making scum picks seems completely arbitrary to me. I wonder.... is there a group of people that would want to choose their scums picks completely randomly?... | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
Right? Right So let's see who was vocally pro Marv, who was indifferent, and who took a stand against him. By the way these are just some notes I'm jotting, we need to get some feedback on them. I'm fairly certain they could prove to be useful. Protip: this is not who I think is "Leaning Town","Null", "Suspicious" This is what Im inferring from people's filters about their thoughts on Marv. Leaning Town Hapahauli- Agrees with Marv mostly, Yamato claims that he was parroting marv. Will receive a more in depth analysis of his filter. Acrofales- Defends Marv on multiple occasions. Had him solid town prior to his flip (which he made sure to broadcast just before the night cycle). Dienosore- Got you.I fucking got you. And this ladies and gentlemen is why I do this kind of analysis and why I will be the most invaluable townie. "I've already mentioned that I trust you. If you sincerely believe that he isn't scum" That really should be all you need, but look closer, every single one of his posts have something to do with Marv, and how Marv is taking heat, and how he doesn't think that's right. Perfect cover, all he has to do is lurk around, drop a few "I <3 Marv" bombs and hope Alderan didn't catch you. Well I did. And Dienosore is scum. Snarfs- Points out Dieno buddying Marv (in the softest most wishy washiest of ways) while simultaneously buddying Marv. iamperfection- Claims Marv is not acting scummy based on Meta. yamato77- Seems steady in his belief that Marv was town through out the thread. Null Alderan- I've been inactive as fuck, but for full disclosure the only thing I said about Marv was that many believed he was a solid town. In my mind I had that feeling, just not in the business of broadcasting who I think is town/blue. Zarepath- Points out those that kept shoving Marv into the spotlight, specifically Oatmaster. Keirathi- Minor chatter between the two but nothing noteworthy. Thrawn2112- Not particularly strong of a stance either way, but does point out inconsistencies in Oatmaster's suspicions, namely the drastic switch towards the middle of the day. Adam4167- Only references Marv in the sense that Dienosore was buddying him so hard. He also points out a couple of the concepts I brought up here, but I didn't catch them the first time. The idea that scum is not going to come out hard against town day 1. cDgCorazon Doesn't mention a lot of his feelings about Marv personally but does have an interesting interaction with Yamato in which he assumes that because Yamato thought he was scummy he must also think Marv was scummy. Sylencia- Does not mention Marv until he is dead. Suspicious Oatmaster- Early on is suspicious of Marv; switches directions. Interestingly targets Acrofales for defending Marv. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
I think that is why Oatmaster is so intriguing as well. Early pressure, then a complete 180 that was caught by multiple people. Seems a little off. Anyway I'm done talking to myself. Let me read through what's gone on in the last couple of pages and start responding to people directly. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 26 2013 13:13 cDgCorazon wrote: The interesting thing is when we do get to that situation where no-lynch is imminent, I think we will start to see some agendas pushed forward. Then we can figure out if they are scum pushed or town pushed. Perhaps that upside of your idea might cover all of the downsides... I'd be careful with this line of thinking. Scum wants a no lynch, so if last second agendas are forming it's not going to be from them, it's going to be from town, and the scum are just going to hide in with the rest of us. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 26 2013 12:57 Oatsmaster wrote: Ok so your plan is that we pick the one, and that person picks another to duel? It just screams manipulation to me, like you are giving scum a way out of getting lynched, assuming the one we pick is scum. Currently I dont have another plan, but I just don't think this is a good idea. This is really bad town analysis. Why would it be in manipulation the town has all the control. Let's say we majority vote for who should be the first dueler. If the person is town, then he should be allowed to pick someone he thinks is scummy. Nothing to see here, actually helps out our odds in case some one slips up. Now let's say he's scum. He's gonna pick someone who might seem scummy to the town, but guess what, we just voted him with a majority vote as our first dueler, and because of that he already has a significant amount of votes against him. Scum gonna jump ship and get out of the lynch? Opens them up to a lot of criticism, especially if we can figure out the pattern. I think this way gives us the most information and the highest chance of lynching scum. It's scary (or should I say scummy) that you don't see that. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
I don't buy the motivation of Adam to auto duel if he's scum. Yamato, what is it exactly that makes you think he's more scummy that Keirathi other than that? Wreaks of over-zealous town.... like the ENTIRE rest of his filter. I find it interesting that this entire move leaves people like Thrawn and Dieno out. The only motivation for Adam to aggressively duel like that is if he thought there was a real fear of being matched up with another Mafia (Thrawn?) If that's the case then the Adam lynch seems to give the most information. I just don't see anything in either filter that would warrant a vote if this was a normal Mafia game..... | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 27 2013 00:18 iamperfection wrote: oh we can kill both hrmm can kill adam for being stupid can kill kier for being useless must ponder that. No. No No No. I'm trying not to OMGUS here, but this is a horrendous idea. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 27 2013 00:47 Acrofales wrote: @Iamp, Hapa, Alderan: explain to me why Adam's situation is different from Meapak's shot in Bang Bang Mafia 2. Not familiar with it. Got a link? | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 27 2013 00:47 Acrofales wrote: @Iamp, Hapa, Alderan: explain to me why Adam's situation is different from Meapak's shot in Bang Bang Mafia 2. Didn't see the spoiler in your post. It went about as well as I thought it would. He shot someone, and was then shot and flipped GF. Thats exactly why I would assume scum wouldn't do it. Pretty far from optimal play imo.... | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 27 2013 00:56 iamperfection wrote: if he here one more thing about oh we need information or crap like that i swear to god im going to jump off a bridge. We need to lynch scum and for those saying killing both isnt taking a stance it is. It means i can see arguments for either one being scum. Taking a stance?... wat.... Hey town, how about we not take a stance on things like double lynching townies. can kill adam for being stupid can kill kier for being useless Neither of those are good enough reasons to lynch. So again, let's NOT "take a stand". | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 27 2013 00:56 Acrofales wrote: you know that the TL search button works just as well for you as it does for me? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340480 Day 3 was the shot, and Ace actually updates the important posts links. Glad I didn't search it. Appreciate the anecdotal example of bad scum play, though. Really adds to the conversation. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 25 2013 10:06 Adam4167 wrote: This started 30 minutes after i went to bed, bleh =( I agree with Yamato, If i see scum, i'll make my case and duel them. This was literally his first post. Terrible play, and really set town back because I think we were making some headway, but he did exactly what he said he was going to. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
I know that one being stupid and one being useless is not reason enough to lynch both. If I see some significant scum evidence on BOTH then I would advocate a double lynch, but because it's fairly certain they are not both scum then what you are proposing is essentially a random lynch. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:17 iamperfection wrote: i dont know what your expecting some sort of smoking gun evidence that so and so is mafia it isnt gonna happen This is an educated guessing game after all. Kier doesn't care about this game. He is not interested in finding scum Adam did something stuipd that acro points out should be punished. both can be mafia I guess it just comes back to your personal opinion on lynching lurkers day 1. I'm against it, never works out. A double lynch here feels the same way. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:35 Acrofales wrote: So lets say we lynch Keirathi. Atm I'd say there's a fair chance he flips scum, but I am nowhere near sure enough to bet the game on it. That means Adam gets off free. If Keirathi flips scum, that is awesome. If he flips town, then we are virtually forced to lynch Adam tomorrow. Possibly resulting in another mislynch, because it turns out he really was just a stupid townie and not scum. If we lynch Adam and he flips "stupid townie", then Keirathi might still be scum. So far Keirathi has made absolutely no move toward scumhunting (past his case on Adam, which in hindsight isn't nearly as bad as it looked when he made it, but is still not stellar). So at the moment, a double lynch looks like by far the best option. It also leaves us with the maximum time (48 hours) and if either Adam or Keirathi start to look way more townie than they do now, we can always just lynch one of them. If we were to lynch one of them right now, my first choice would absolutely be Adam, but I still like the Keirathi lynch too. Chance of both being scum is tiny, but given that I estimate the chance of Adam being scum at 75% and Keirathi being scum at 60%, that means my estimate of at least one being scum is 90%. A 1 for 1 trade seems good to me at the moment and a 90% chance at a 1 for 1 trade feels better than a 75% chance at lynching a scum. I say we lynch one (I'm still working through which one) and then wait and see how the night goes. No reason rushing into it if we have tools that would shed some light on the issue. Anyway its about time we stop talking about it, as it doesn't seem that a double lynch has much shot, and we're going round in circles. | ||
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