EPTI'll jump in if my Newbie Mini Mafia XX wraps up in the next few days.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXI
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I'll jump in if my Newbie Mini Mafia XX wraps up in the next few days. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 16 2012 09:06 calgar wrote: I have to disagree with you here. We saw firsthand how hapa crushed hopeless last game with a thorough meta-analysis. This means it is at least worth something. Having said that, I think it will be less useful this game since those who saw what happened will be more careful to avoid similar mistakes. And some players (like me) have no history to analyze. One of the lessons I learned from the last game (Newbie Mini Mafia XX) was how fickle meta-analysis can be. My case against Hopeless was mostly based around him mis-representing evidence and fingerpointing. The Meta was the icing on the cake. Also note that my cases/meta arguments against two players (Release and JingleHell) were ulitmately wrong. While meta has a place as supplemental evidence against players who are not self-aware of their own history, Otherwise, it lead you on a goose chase after a player who's in a bad mood in a particular game. To re-iterate, meta is icing on the cake. We should always look for suspicious behavior and mafia-motive before even considering something like meta. Suspicious behavior like the bolded part below: On July 16 2012 09:06 calgar wrote: ---SNIP--- And some players (like me) have no history to analyze. That's a really subtle way to point out your newbieness. That's some mafia behavior right there. FOS calgar | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 16 2012 09:40 tube wrote: whats the point of fos btw doesnt that just make the fos'ed person more careful in their posts if they actually are mafia i mean i would rather just gather more evidence then outright accuse them It's a way to pressure people and get them to talk - I found it very effective in my last game, and I'll continue to do it this game. Someone mentioned in our last game that people on other mafia sites like throwing around votes early in the game to pressure. The FOS thing is similar. At this point, almost any action can be justified if it gets people to talk. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
FOS tube While he has five posts in this game, all of them are substance-less and short. Beyond an initial burst of one-liners early in the game, he hasn’t done anything of value so far. I find his last two posts especially suspicious: On July 16 2012 10:26 tube wrote: in a game this small where everyone said "i will be active" i dont think lurking is a good idea for anyone, esp mafia Incredibly obvious one-liner. Note the wishy-washy wording, “I don’t think lurking is a good idea” – OF COURSE lurking isn’t a good idea! He’s being timid and posting obvious statements. On July 16 2012 23:25 tube wrote: idk what igmeoy means but i just didnt do any analysis He plays off his lack of substance and analysis as no big deal. This is incredibly suspicious and is anti-town mentality – townies JUMP at the opportunity to provide analysis instead of playing it off as no big deal. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 04:30 tube wrote: what lol maybe i just dont see anything to analyze in day 1 with no information The issue I have is how flippant your attitude is toward analysis so far. You're not making an effort to converse - you've just asked some neutral questions, posted neutral statements, made some fluff one-liners, and responded "what lol" to the first accusation against you. Zero substance, and highly suspicious. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:04 tube wrote: half of the people in the game have already been accused and i literally dont agree with any of the arguments that were made yet because they're all too speculative yeah those are my thoughts i guess im mafia Again - why are you dismissing all forms of analysis so easily? You also refuse to take a stand against anyone so far despite posting many one-liners and substanceless posts to make you seem active. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:22 tube wrote: i didnt martyr myself i thought making a sarcastic statement like that would make people realize how pointless it is to lynch me Sooo... you thought making sarcastic one-liners would shift suspicion off you? If you want to avoid suspicion, take the points against you seriously and start posting with substance. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:39 tube wrote: the points against me are that im being an active lurker and thats supposedly our best lynch how am i supposed to respond to that other than "i just felt like posting" because i didnt want to be inactive from my point of view im not attracting suspicion to begin with WAT. Holy scumslip. Posting for no reason other than to appear active? That smells like a mafia trying to put up a facade of townieness without providing any info. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:45 JingleHell wrote: And if you flip town, I'll consider them as plausible targets. If you flip scum, I'll consider them confirmed townie. Deal? Let's not pre-determine our lynches less than 24 hours into day 1 Jingle. While tube is at the top of my list right now (even moreso after chainsaw defending himself with a list of lurkers), we don't know if he'll be the scummiest player by the D1 lynch deadline. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:51 JingleHell wrote: I was actually fishing for a reaction more substantial than his current posting, thanks for interfering. And you're one to talk, remember XX N1 where you were like 72 hours away from deadline planning to lynch me until DT confirmed me on D2? Of course I remember - it was a huge mistake, and I don't want to see it repeated. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 06:09 JingleHell wrote: No, it's not a scum slip. It's what I said earlier, if we don't have anybody who really screams "scum" at us, we can just lynch the person who might just be actively bad town. The "noob game" excuse doesn't fly with me, we're all newbs, thus being in the game. This game is plurality lynch. Most votes at the end of the day dies. So yes, someone who's actively not contributing can be a severe detriment. Ask Hapa about the town win in XX. Where the guy I would have lynched for being such a PITA was trying to coerce people into not voting for the guy we ended up lynching. Who flipped red and won us the game. Actively bad town are scum's best friend. And if they make it to MYLO or LYLO, they can cause a town loss, because they look scummy. In XVIII I won as scum because of an actively bad town player who I was able to lead a mislynch on and walk away from it because he was so scummy sounding. Scum had all 3 alive at endgame. There's never an exuse to lynch someone because you think they're "bad town" - they can always be ignored by the other folks. In regards to the XX game, you mean Lazer defending Bass from being lynched on D3? That certainly doesn't justify lynching Lazer D1 instead of the more suspicious player (who ended up flipping red). In regards to the XVIII game, I haven't read it over so I can't comment. All that being said, I've FOS'd tube not because I think he's a bad townie, but because he's the most suspicious player in the game so far. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=11#220 | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Regarding you being "non-commital" - people define committment as the willingness to take a strong stance against a player or take a controversial opinion. Generally (according to the guides), mafia are often timid and non-controversial, because they don't want to attract attention. As it stands, your posts so far sound a lot like that - harmless one-liners that try to deflect attention from yourself. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
As far as I'm concerned, tube's one-liners seem much more suspicious. Furthermore, we have a handful of lurkers that need to be pressured by town to increase their post counts. It's not good if town ends Day 1 with a couple of players who have posted nothing of substance. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 06:21 Hopeless1der wrote: Lynching a bad townie in absence of scum to choose from is the best play town can make (unless its MYLO) imo. Are we allowed to Vote: No Lynch? There's some theoretical crap about even numbers of town-vs-scum being better for a potential mislynch or something to that effect. I might have it backwards in some way, but anyways, mislynching still gives information and the entire process leading up to getting tube (mis)lynched will give us information as well. If along the way someone makes a scumslip well guess what, I'll probably be voting for the scummy player. We need to do something to force reads from people who refuse to contribute. Almost getting them lynched should work as reasonable motivation I'd hope. Woah, can't believe I missed this - this is pretty interesting, and you wouldn't happen to have a reference for this? I can't ever see rationale for a nolynch, especially since lynch votes and actions are a great source of information when investigating mafia motive. As far as I'm concerned, a nolynch just gives the mafia a free kill, while the town is stuck on day 1 with no reads and less information. Since this post, there has fortunately been a burst of activity, and hopefully someone can build a case. I'm planning to dig through it all tomorrow to build something more definite. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
So far, YourHarry’s play is ringing a lot of alarm-bells for me. He’s posted very little content, he’s never explained his opinions, and he’s displayed a very different mentality from his town play in his last game (Newbie Mini Mafia XX). A Quick Meta Summary NOTE: “Meta” is strictly supplemental evidence. Consider my entire case before dismissing it a as a simple meta argument. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066&user=106290 A quick look at YourHarry’s first two pages of filters reveals an active and genuine player. He makes genuine cases, real analysis, and longer posts. He’s willing to throw his votes around, but does so decisively and explains his reasoning. Take a look at some of the below posts to get a feel for YourHarry’s town play in Newbie Mini Mafia XX: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=5#94 - Defends LazerMonkey early in the game. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=7#129 - Votes JingleHell for pressure, explains reasoning http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=8#152 - Clearly explains reasoning for Unvoting JingleHell In summary, he clearly gives reasoning for all his actions, displays urgency to catch scum, and is willing to defend people he believes are coming under unjust attacks. Very townie behavior. YourHarry in this game is a very different person in a Mafia-Oriented Way YourHarry’s Scummy Play YourHarry’s actions have no reasoning. His vote against Obvious.660 consists of the following justifications: On July 16 2012 14:07 YourHarry wrote: ##Vote Obvious.660 Obvious scum BTW, "wait and see" does not mean that we should actively stop what we are discussing to see what happens. It could mean, carry on with discussions and finger pointing and see where our scum hunting leads us. On July 17 2012 11:31 YourHarry wrote: Obvious.660 is obviously mafia. Kill with fire. On July 17 2012 11:36 YourHarry wrote: KILL OBVIOUS.660!!! He still has not provided justification for this, and despite his early provocations, withdrew his vote without any justification, AGAIN. Note his wishy-washy tone and emphasis on stalling. Despite what I said about needing to start voting, I don't know who to vote. I will reconsider tomorrow morning ##Unvote Furthermore, this contradicts directly with a post he made earlier: On July 17 2012 14:59 YourHarry wrote: With 17 hours left, we should start making votes - just to allow us to see the direction of the lynch. More than just the contradiction, this is anti-town mentality. He basically suggests us to throw votes for no reason, which will serve no purpose other than to create chaos and panic. 17 hours from the deadline is no time to be panicking over a lynch, especially with the burst of posting over the last few hours. Finally, I find his “suspicion” against me the polar opposite of his townie play. On July 17 2012 14:56 YourHarry wrote: Based on meta alone, I find Hapha suspicious. He hasn't yet to post his signature lengthy analysis on players he find suspicious. Of course, the easy answer is that he hasn't found anyone suspicious. Look how indecisive this post is. He gives unclear reasoning, then quickly backtracks on it with an explanation. The ENTIRE goal of the post is to spread suspicion instead of making a read. Overall, I think YourHarry is the most suspicious player so far. His thought process and character has been very different than that of his townie persona. Furthermore, he’s produced no content, posted many one-liners, and his posts incite panic and suspicion without providing reasoning. ##Vote YourHarry | ||
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